California has recorded no magnitude 7.0 or larger earthquakes through mid-August 2026, with the strongest event a 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only scattered smaller tremors since. USGS monitoring and long-term models such as UCERF3 indicate that M7+ events occur infrequently on a yearly basis statewide, consistent with the market-implied 97.5% probability traders assign to “No.” Accumulated tectonic stress along major faults like the San Andreas remains elevated, yet current seismic data show no foreshock sequences or rapid strain changes that typically precede large ruptures. Remaining uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of fault failure; an unexpected mainshock could still occur before year-end if critical stress thresholds are crossed.