Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28 emphasizing that PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year (with a 4.1% six-month rate) shows insufficient underlying progress toward the 2% target, stating the Fed has “work to do” and short-term rates remain the primary tool. This shifted trader expectations, lifting the implied probability of a September 15-16 rate hike above 50% per futures pricing. The next CPI release on September 11 will shape the FOMC statement and press conference tone, while Warsh’s prior conferences have centered on inflation frequency, price stability commitments, and resistance to detailed forward guidance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiInflation 40+ times
43%
Inflation 20+ times
57%
Task Force 10+ times
46%
Good Day
87%
Good Afternoon
31%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
86%
Labor Force
45%
Scenario
47%
Echo
45%
Software
45%
Pressure
45%
Luck / Lucky
45%
Dissent
23%
Trump
7%
Productivity
74%
Bet / Betting
54%
Projection
68%
Balance Sheet
78%
Pandemic
43%
Anchor / Anchored
27%
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
44%
-No Qualifying Event-
40%
$269 Vol.
Inflation 40+ times
43%
Inflation 20+ times
57%
Task Force 10+ times
46%
Good Day
87%
Good Afternoon
31%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
86%
Labor Force
45%
Scenario
47%
Echo
45%
Software
45%
Pressure
45%
Luck / Lucky
45%
Dissent
23%
Trump
7%
Productivity
74%
Bet / Betting
54%
Projection
68%
Balance Sheet
78%
Pandemic
43%
Anchor / Anchored
27%
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
44%
-No Qualifying Event-
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such statement by Warsh happens by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 7:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such statement by Warsh happens by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28 emphasizing that PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year (with a 4.1% six-month rate) shows insufficient underlying progress toward the 2% target, stating the Fed has “work to do” and short-term rates remain the primary tool. This shifted trader expectations, lifting the implied probability of a September 15-16 rate hike above 50% per futures pricing. The next CPI release on September 11 will shape the FOMC statement and press conference tone, while Warsh’s prior conferences have centered on inflation frequency, price stability commitments, and resistance to detailed forward guidance.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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