Recent resilient U.S. labor market data, including 162,000 August jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have reinforced trader views that the Fed may need to hike rates to address inflation still above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers, citing persistent price pressures and geopolitical energy shocks, have shifted futures toward pricing in a possible September move while markets imply roughly 41 basis points of tightening for the year overall. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, the September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could clarify the path for the remaining 2026 meetings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 44%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.5%
$287,437 Vol.
$287,437 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
30%
1 (25 bps)
44%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3 (75 bps)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 44%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 bps) 4.5%
$287,437 Vol.
$287,437 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$101,602 Vol.
30%
1 (25 bps)
$47,117 Vol.
44%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Vol.
23%
3 (75 bps)
$31,570 Vol.
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent resilient U.S. labor market data, including 162,000 August jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have reinforced trader views that the Fed may need to hike rates to address inflation still above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers, citing persistent price pressures and geopolitical energy shocks, have shifted futures toward pricing in a possible September move while markets imply roughly 41 basis points of tightening for the year overall. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, the September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could clarify the path for the remaining 2026 meetings.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$287,437Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent resilient U.S. labor market data, including 162,000 August jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have reinforced trader views that the Fed may need to hike rates to address inflation still above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers, citing persistent price pressures and geopolitical energy shocks, have shifted futures toward pricing in a possible September move while markets imply roughly 41 basis points of tightening for the year overall. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, the September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could clarify the path for the remaining 2026 meetings.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$287,437Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent resilient U.S. labor market data, including 162,000 August jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1%, alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, have reinforced trader views that the Fed may need to hike rates to address inflation still above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers, citing persistent price pressures and geopolitical energy shocks, have shifted futures toward pricing in a possible September move while markets imply roughly 41 basis points of tightening for the year overall. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, the September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts that could clarify the path for the remaining 2026 meetings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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