Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because no congressional legislation or presidential request has emerged to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction authority, despite ongoing automatic Selective Service registration implementation under the FY2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment targets without acute shortfalls, and no national emergency has triggered the procedural steps historically required for conscription. Bipartisan support remains focused on registration modernization rather than activation. Late-breaking developments such as major escalation in active conflicts, sudden personnel shortages beyond volunteer capacity, or formal congressional votes on draft bills could still shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5% peluang
$522,200 Vol.
$522,200 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% peluang
$522,200 Vol.
$522,200 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because no congressional legislation or presidential request has emerged to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction authority, despite ongoing automatic Selective Service registration implementation under the FY2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment targets without acute shortfalls, and no national emergency has triggered the procedural steps historically required for conscription. Bipartisan support remains focused on registration modernization rather than activation. Late-breaking developments such as major escalation in active conflicts, sudden personnel shortages beyond volunteer capacity, or formal congressional votes on draft bills could still shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$522,200Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because no congressional legislation or presidential request has emerged to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction authority, despite ongoing automatic Selective Service registration implementation under the FY2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment targets without acute shortfalls, and no national emergency has triggered the procedural steps historically required for conscription. Bipartisan support remains focused on registration modernization rather than activation. Late-breaking developments such as major escalation in active conflicts, sudden personnel shortages beyond volunteer capacity, or formal congressional votes on draft bills could still shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$522,200Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 because no congressional legislation or presidential request has emerged to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction authority, despite ongoing automatic Selective Service registration implementation under the FY2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment targets without acute shortfalls, and no national emergency has triggered the procedural steps historically required for conscription. Bipartisan support remains focused on registration modernization rather than activation. Late-breaking developments such as major escalation in active conflicts, sudden personnel shortages beyond volunteer capacity, or formal congressional votes on draft bills could still shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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