Incumbent Republican Mike Carey faces Democratic nominee Don Leonard in Ohio's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both cleared their May 5 primaries without significant opposition or upset. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including Carey's 56.5% share in 2024. A July 2026 poll showed Carey ahead 45-40, underscoring the incumbent's structural edge in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in central Ohio. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the race as Solid Republican, limiting Democratic path-to-victory scenarios despite national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major late-breaking shifts since the summer poll.
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OH-15 House Election Winner
$10,501 Vol.
$10,501 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
78%
Democratic Party
19%
$10,501 Vol.
$10,501 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,609 Vol.
78%
Democratic Party
$5,891 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey faces Democratic nominee Don Leonard in Ohio's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both cleared their May 5 primaries without significant opposition or upset. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including Carey's 56.5% share in 2024. A July 2026 poll showed Carey ahead 45-40, underscoring the incumbent's structural edge in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in central Ohio. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the race as Solid Republican, limiting Democratic path-to-victory scenarios despite national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major late-breaking shifts since the summer poll.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$10,501Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey faces Democratic nominee Don Leonard in Ohio's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both cleared their May 5 primaries without significant opposition or upset. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including Carey's 56.5% share in 2024. A July 2026 poll showed Carey ahead 45-40, underscoring the incumbent's structural edge in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in central Ohio. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the race as Solid Republican, limiting Democratic path-to-victory scenarios despite national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major late-breaking shifts since the summer poll.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,501Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Carey faces Democratic nominee Don Leonard in Ohio's 15th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both cleared their May 5 primaries without significant opposition or upset. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including Carey's 56.5% share in 2024. A July 2026 poll showed Carey ahead 45-40, underscoring the incumbent's structural edge in fundraising, name recognition, and voter base in central Ohio. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report classify the race as Solid Republican, limiting Democratic path-to-victory scenarios despite national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major late-breaking shifts since the summer poll.
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