Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNY-19 House Election Winner
NY-19 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
10%
BARU
BARU
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,341 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$2,786 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$5,126Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,126Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley's established position in New York's 19th congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 89.5%. Riley secured the seat in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote and advanced through the June 2026 Democratic primary without significant opposition. The district, spanning the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, rewards pragmatic constituent services and has shown Democratic lean in recent cycles. Republican nominee Peter Oberacker, who prevailed in his June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and fundraising disparities typical for challengers in Lean Democratic-rated seats per nonpartisan forecasters. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, limited late-cycle developments have emerged to alter the current implied probabilities reflected in real-money trading.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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