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icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?
Dunia·Jerman

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?

icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?
Dunia·Jerman

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?

10%?

5%?

10%?

5%?

Over

83% peluang
Polymarket
BARU

Over

83% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows the CDU at 6–10 percent, with most surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix placing it near 7 percent. This reflects a polarized contest in which SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and the AfD dominate voter attention, drawing support away from the CDU after its weak showing in Saxony-Anhalt. Party figures have publicly voiced concerns about missing the 5 percent threshold for the first time in the state’s post-reunification history. The 82.5 percent implied probability for over 5 percent aligns with these figures while incorporating sampling margins and the risk of further late shifts in a tight race.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$8,990
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows the CDU at 6–10 percent, with most surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, INSA, and Pollytix placing it near 7 percent. This reflects a polarized contest in which SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig and the AfD dominate voter attention, drawing support away from the CDU after its weak showing in Saxony-Anhalt. Party figures have publicly voiced concerns about missing the 5 percent threshold for the first time in the state’s post-reunification history. The 82.5 percent implied probability for over 5 percent aligns with these figures while incorporating sampling margins and the risk of further late shifts in a tight race.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$8,990
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?

8%
Over
icon for Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?

Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?

78%
icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?

9%
CDU

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Over/Under" di 83%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 83¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 10, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?" adalah "Over/Under" di 83%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.