Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwest Iowa, encompassing areas like Sioux City and Ames with a pronounced partisan lean that has produced double-digit GOP victories in recent cycles. Randy Feenstra's decision to vacate the seat for a gubernatorial bid created an open race, yet the June 2026 primaries produced unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson without shifting the underlying dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican due to structural advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans reflects this baseline, with limited recent developments capable of altering the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a national Democratic wave, major scandals involving the nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical voting behavior in the district.
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IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwest Iowa, encompassing areas like Sioux City and Ames with a pronounced partisan lean that has produced double-digit GOP victories in recent cycles. Randy Feenstra's decision to vacate the seat for a gubernatorial bid created an open race, yet the June 2026 primaries produced unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson without shifting the underlying dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican due to structural advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans reflects this baseline, with limited recent developments capable of altering the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a national Democratic wave, major scandals involving the nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical voting behavior in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwest Iowa, encompassing areas like Sioux City and Ames with a pronounced partisan lean that has produced double-digit GOP victories in recent cycles. Randy Feenstra's decision to vacate the seat for a gubernatorial bid created an open race, yet the June 2026 primaries produced unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson without shifting the underlying dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican due to structural advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans reflects this baseline, with limited recent developments capable of altering the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a national Democratic wave, major scandals involving the nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical voting behavior in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold in northwest Iowa, encompassing areas like Sioux City and Ames with a pronounced partisan lean that has produced double-digit GOP victories in recent cycles. Randy Feenstra's decision to vacate the seat for a gubernatorial bid created an open race, yet the June 2026 primaries produced unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan and Democrat Dave Dawson without shifting the underlying dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican due to structural advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans reflects this baseline, with limited recent developments capable of altering the trajectory. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a national Democratic wave, major scandals involving the nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical voting behavior in the district.
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