**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
7 78%
11 5.8%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
6%
12+
<1%
7 78%
11 5.8%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,511 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
78%
8
$4,623 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,873 Vol.
1%
11
$2,845 Vol.
6%
12+
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,131Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,131Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 78% probability on that exact outcome.** As of mid-August 2026, credible trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report a total of eleven Senate retirements or departures from the ballot—seven Republicans and four Democrats—matching the current count precisely. Earlier announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), established this baseline, with additional Republican exits solidifying the total at seven. Traders appear to view further shifts as unlikely absent new high-profile decisions, primary challenges, or unexpected candidacies for other offices, keeping probabilities on nearby figures like nine or five in the low single digits. This retirement wave exceeds recent cycles and reflects factors such as age, institutional pressures, and shifting electoral dynamics in the Republican conference.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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