Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in the 2026 cycle, including Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting matchups. These results have pushed the total past typical historical averages for a full cycle, with traders viewing 10-12 total losses as the most likely range given ongoing races and additional contests featuring left-leaning opponents. Remaining primaries could add further upsets, though many safe incumbents continue to advance without significant opposition. The market pricing reflects this combination of confirmed defeats and expectations for a modestly elevated but contained number of additional primary losses before the season concludes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui10-12 42.0%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 5.9%
>15 3.4%
$24,597 Vol.
$24,597 Vol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
26%
10-12
42%
13-15
6%
>15
3%
10-12 42.0%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 5.9%
>15 3.4%
$24,597 Vol.
$24,597 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,704 Vol.
26%
10-12
$5,223 Vol.
42%
13-15
$2,210 Vol.
6%
>15
$2,481 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in the 2026 cycle, including Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting matchups. These results have pushed the total past typical historical averages for a full cycle, with traders viewing 10-12 total losses as the most likely range given ongoing races and additional contests featuring left-leaning opponents. Remaining primaries could add further upsets, though many safe incumbents continue to advance without significant opposition. The market pricing reflects this combination of confirmed defeats and expectations for a modestly elevated but contained number of additional primary losses before the season concludes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$24,597Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in the 2026 cycle, including Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting matchups. These results have pushed the total past typical historical averages for a full cycle, with traders viewing 10-12 total losses as the most likely range given ongoing races and additional contests featuring left-leaning opponents. Remaining primaries could add further upsets, though many safe incumbents continue to advance without significant opposition. The market pricing reflects this combination of confirmed defeats and expectations for a modestly elevated but contained number of additional primary losses before the season concludes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$24,597Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Multiple Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in the 2026 cycle, including Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover pressures, and redistricting matchups. These results have pushed the total past typical historical averages for a full cycle, with traders viewing 10-12 total losses as the most likely range given ongoing races and additional contests featuring left-leaning opponents. Remaining primaries could add further upsets, though many safe incumbents continue to advance without significant opposition. The market pricing reflects this combination of confirmed defeats and expectations for a modestly elevated but contained number of additional primary losses before the season concludes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
96%
Apakah Partai Republik akan memegang kurang dari 22 jabatan gubernur setelah pemilihan paruh waktu 2026?
32%
Ya
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