Seismic activity worldwide remains slightly below long-term averages according to USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring, with recent days recording fewer than typical M5+ events. For M5.5+ quakes specifically, historical Gutenberg-Richter scaling implies roughly 11–12 occurrences per week on average, though short-term fluctuations arise from clustered aftershocks along subduction zones or strike-slip faults. The market's heavy weighting toward ≤6 outcomes (30.5%) reflects this subdued baseline plus the absence of major foreshock sequences or elevated strain indicators ahead of the September 21–27 window. Key variables include the timing of any M6+ mainshocks, which could push totals into the 8–10 range, and potential aftershock sequences that might elevate counts above 13. Updated USGS catalogs and real-time seismic networks will provide the definitive tally for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?
≤6 31%
8 16%
7 15%
9 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 28, 2026
≤6
31%
7
15%
8
16%
9
11%
10
11%
11
8%
12
7%
13
5%
more than 13
7%
≤6 31%
8 16%
7 15%
9 11%
BARU
BARU
Sep 28, 2026
≤6
$281 Vol.
31%
7
$0 Vol.
15%
8
$84 Vol.
16%
9
$110 Vol.
11%
10
$88 Vol.
11%
11
$0 Vol.
8%
12
$0 Vol.
7%
13
$0 Vol.
5%
more than 13
$60 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Seismic activity worldwide remains slightly below long-term averages according to USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring, with recent days recording fewer than typical M5+ events. For M5.5+ quakes specifically, historical Gutenberg-Richter scaling implies roughly 11–12 occurrences per week on average, though short-term fluctuations arise from clustered aftershocks along subduction zones or strike-slip faults. The market's heavy weighting toward ≤6 outcomes (30.5%) reflects this subdued baseline plus the absence of major foreshock sequences or elevated strain indicators ahead of the September 21–27 window. Key variables include the timing of any M6+ mainshocks, which could push totals into the 8–10 range, and potential aftershock sequences that might elevate counts above 13. Updated USGS catalogs and real-time seismic networks will provide the definitive tally for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$623Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Seismic activity worldwide remains slightly below long-term averages according to USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring, with recent days recording fewer than typical M5+ events. For M5.5+ quakes specifically, historical Gutenberg-Richter scaling implies roughly 11–12 occurrences per week on average, though short-term fluctuations arise from clustered aftershocks along subduction zones or strike-slip faults. The market's heavy weighting toward ≤6 outcomes (30.5%) reflects this subdued baseline plus the absence of major foreshock sequences or elevated strain indicators ahead of the September 21–27 window. Key variables include the timing of any M6+ mainshocks, which could push totals into the 8–10 range, and potential aftershock sequences that might elevate counts above 13. Updated USGS catalogs and real-time seismic networks will provide the definitive tally for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$623Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 11:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Seismic activity worldwide remains slightly below long-term averages according to USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring, with recent days recording fewer than typical M5+ events. For M5.5+ quakes specifically, historical Gutenberg-Richter scaling implies roughly 11–12 occurrences per week on average, though short-term fluctuations arise from clustered aftershocks along subduction zones or strike-slip faults. The market's heavy weighting toward ≤6 outcomes (30.5%) reflects this subdued baseline plus the absence of major foreshock sequences or elevated strain indicators ahead of the September 21–27 window. Key variables include the timing of any M6+ mainshocks, which could push totals into the 8–10 range, and potential aftershock sequences that might elevate counts above 13. Updated USGS catalogs and real-time seismic networks will provide the definitive tally for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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