Skip to main content
icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Keuangan·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Keuangan·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$286,324 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$286,324 Vol.

Polymarket

4.8%

$59,319 Vol.

69%

5.0%

$81,291 Vol.

35%

5.2%

$26,278 Vol.

5%

5.5%

$5,832 Vol.

7%

5.7%

$4,234 Vol.

6%

6.0%

$3,084 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,324
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,324
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Terkait

icon for Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

12%
icon for Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

100%
icon for US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 10 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4.3%" di 100%, diikuti oleh "4.4%" di 100%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $286.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?," jelajahi 10 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" adalah "4.3%" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "4.4%" di 100%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.