Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation. Recent developments include the August 17 expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, followed by an Iranian tanker seizure near Qeshm Island and continued enforcement of Iranian transit rules and fees. US forces have conducted strikes on coastal targets and cleared mines while promoting alternative routes via Oman, yet no military operations have targeted Hormuz Island's occupation or transferred territorial authority. Ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks and intermittent vessel incidents focus on passage protocols rather than island sovereignty. These dynamics, combined with Iran's fortified island positions and absence of imminent invasion or seizure scenarios, underpin trader consensus assigning low probability to any near-term loss of Iranian control.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$64,015 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$64,015 Vol.
August 31
$52,278 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation. Recent developments include the August 17 expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, followed by an Iranian tanker seizure near Qeshm Island and continued enforcement of Iranian transit rules and fees. US forces have conducted strikes on coastal targets and cleared mines while promoting alternative routes via Oman, yet no military operations have targeted Hormuz Island's occupation or transferred territorial authority. Ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks and intermittent vessel incidents focus on passage protocols rather than island sovereignty. These dynamics, combined with Iran's fortified island positions and absence of imminent invasion or seizure scenarios, underpin trader consensus assigning low probability to any near-term loss of Iranian control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$64,015Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation. Recent developments include the August 17 expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, followed by an Iranian tanker seizure near Qeshm Island and continued enforcement of Iranian transit rules and fees. US forces have conducted strikes on coastal targets and cleared mines while promoting alternative routes via Oman, yet no military operations have targeted Hormuz Island's occupation or transferred territorial authority. Ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks and intermittent vessel incidents focus on passage protocols rather than island sovereignty. These dynamics, combined with Iran's fortified island positions and absence of imminent invasion or seizure scenarios, underpin trader consensus assigning low probability to any near-term loss of Iranian control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,015Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains sovereign control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation. Recent developments include the August 17 expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, followed by an Iranian tanker seizure near Qeshm Island and continued enforcement of Iranian transit rules and fees. US forces have conducted strikes on coastal targets and cleared mines while promoting alternative routes via Oman, yet no military operations have targeted Hormuz Island's occupation or transferred territorial authority. Ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks and intermittent vessel incidents focus on passage protocols rather than island sovereignty. These dynamics, combined with Iran's fortified island positions and absence of imminent invasion or seizure scenarios, underpin trader consensus assigning low probability to any near-term loss of Iranian control.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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