The by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation has produced a competitive contest in the London constituency, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski as the main challenger. Recent Camden local election results showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% have narrowed historical gaps, while Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds momentum to left-leaning alternatives. Andy Burnham’s new Labour leadership has provided some counterbalancing national lift, yet low turnout dynamics typical of by-elections and voter concerns over housing and local issues sustain uncertainty. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered around 35-45% Labour vote share rather than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaign turnout and any late shifts in tactical voting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui35-40% 24%
50%+ 20%
45-50% 19%
40-45% 16%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
12%
30-35%
16%
35-40%
24%
40-45%
16%
45-50%
19%
50%+
20%
35-40% 24%
50%+ 20%
45-50% 19%
40-45% 16%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
12%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
16%
35-40%
$87 Vol.
24%
40-45%
$79 Vol.
16%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
19%
50%+
$158 Vol.
20%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation has produced a competitive contest in the London constituency, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski as the main challenger. Recent Camden local election results showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% have narrowed historical gaps, while Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds momentum to left-leaning alternatives. Andy Burnham’s new Labour leadership has provided some counterbalancing national lift, yet low turnout dynamics typical of by-elections and voter concerns over housing and local issues sustain uncertainty. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered around 35-45% Labour vote share rather than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaign turnout and any late shifts in tactical voting.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$593Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation has produced a competitive contest in the London constituency, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski as the main challenger. Recent Camden local election results showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% have narrowed historical gaps, while Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds momentum to left-leaning alternatives. Andy Burnham’s new Labour leadership has provided some counterbalancing national lift, yet low turnout dynamics typical of by-elections and voter concerns over housing and local issues sustain uncertainty. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered around 35-45% Labour vote share rather than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaign turnout and any late shifts in tactical voting.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$593Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 2026 resignation has produced a competitive contest in the London constituency, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski as the main challenger. Recent Camden local election results showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8% have narrowed historical gaps, while Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds momentum to left-leaning alternatives. Andy Burnham’s new Labour leadership has provided some counterbalancing national lift, yet low turnout dynamics typical of by-elections and voter concerns over housing and local issues sustain uncertainty. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered around 35-45% Labour vote share rather than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with separation likely hinging on final-week campaign turnout and any late shifts in tactical voting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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