Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS indicate a mild autumnal air mass over central Poland, with overcast skies and light southwesterly winds limiting daytime heating on September 14. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at those levels. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs around 16–18 °C, so current guidance reflects slightly above-normal conditions driven by southerly flow without significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Minor model spread and possible afternoon showers introduce limited upside risk to 21 °C or higher, consistent with the lower but still notable odds assigned to those outcomes. Updated model guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
20°C 48%
19°C 30%
21°C 17%
18°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
30%
20°C
48%
21°C
17%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
<1%
20°C 48%
19°C 30%
21°C 17%
18°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$237 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$97 Vol.
1%
17°C
$153 Vol.
2%
18°C
$156 Vol.
4%
19°C
$2,098 Vol.
30%
20°C
$2,059 Vol.
48%
21°C
$2,064 Vol.
17%
22°C
$472 Vol.
3%
23°C or higher
$221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS indicate a mild autumnal air mass over central Poland, with overcast skies and light southwesterly winds limiting daytime heating on September 14. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at those levels. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs around 16–18 °C, so current guidance reflects slightly above-normal conditions driven by southerly flow without significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Minor model spread and possible afternoon showers introduce limited upside risk to 21 °C or higher, consistent with the lower but still notable odds assigned to those outcomes. Updated model guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,047Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS indicate a mild autumnal air mass over central Poland, with overcast skies and light southwesterly winds limiting daytime heating on September 14. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at those levels. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs around 16–18 °C, so current guidance reflects slightly above-normal conditions driven by southerly flow without significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Minor model spread and possible afternoon showers introduce limited upside risk to 21 °C or higher, consistent with the lower but still notable odds assigned to those outcomes. Updated model guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,047Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS indicate a mild autumnal air mass over central Poland, with overcast skies and light southwesterly winds limiting daytime heating on September 14. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at those levels. Historical September climatology for Warsaw shows average daily highs around 16–18 °C, so current guidance reflects slightly above-normal conditions driven by southerly flow without significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Minor model spread and possible afternoon showers introduce limited upside risk to 21 °C or higher, consistent with the lower but still notable odds assigned to those outcomes. Updated model guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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