Recent KMA and ensemble forecasts for Seoul on July 26 center on a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies with morning showers and possible afternoon clearing, driving the market’s peak implied probability of 32% at that threshold. Typical late-July climatology features highs of 28–32°C amid lingering monsoon moisture and high humidity, which can suppress or enhance peaks depending on cloud cover and timing of rain. Model consensus shows modest spread around 29–32°C due to uncertainty in convective timing and steering flow, while historical analogs rarely exceed 33°C this late in the season without stronger subtropical ridging. Traders weigh these variables against the resolution criteria of official KMA observations, with fresh short-range updates expected to refine odds ahead of the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Seoul on July 26?
Highest temperature in Seoul on July 26?
30°C 42%
31°C 27%
29°C 25%
28°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Jul 26, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
25%
30°C
42%
31°C
27%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 42%
31°C 27%
29°C 25%
28°C 7%
BARU
BARU
Jul 26, 2026
23°C or below
$269 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$275 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$171 Vol.
2%
28°C
$389 Vol.
7%
29°C
$174 Vol.
25%
30°C
$357 Vol.
42%
31°C
$378 Vol.
27%
32°C
$308 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$333 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA and ensemble forecasts for Seoul on July 26 center on a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies with morning showers and possible afternoon clearing, driving the market’s peak implied probability of 32% at that threshold. Typical late-July climatology features highs of 28–32°C amid lingering monsoon moisture and high humidity, which can suppress or enhance peaks depending on cloud cover and timing of rain. Model consensus shows modest spread around 29–32°C due to uncertainty in convective timing and steering flow, while historical analogs rarely exceed 33°C this late in the season without stronger subtropical ridging. Traders weigh these variables against the resolution criteria of official KMA observations, with fresh short-range updates expected to refine odds ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent KMA and ensemble forecasts for Seoul on July 26 center on a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies with morning showers and possible afternoon clearing, driving the market’s peak implied probability of 32% at that threshold. Typical late-July climatology features highs of 28–32°C amid lingering monsoon moisture and high humidity, which can suppress or enhance peaks depending on cloud cover and timing of rain. Model consensus shows modest spread around 29–32°C due to uncertainty in convective timing and steering flow, while historical analogs rarely exceed 33°C this late in the season without stronger subtropical ridging. Traders weigh these variables against the resolution criteria of official KMA observations, with fresh short-range updates expected to refine odds ahead of the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent KMA and ensemble forecasts for Seoul on July 26 center on a daytime maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies with morning showers and possible afternoon clearing, driving the market’s peak implied probability of 32% at that threshold. Typical late-July climatology features highs of 28–32°C amid lingering monsoon moisture and high humidity, which can suppress or enhance peaks depending on cloud cover and timing of rain. Model consensus shows modest spread around 29–32°C due to uncertainty in convective timing and steering flow, while historical analogs rarely exceed 33°C this late in the season without stronger subtropical ridging. Traders weigh these variables against the resolution criteria of official KMA observations, with fresh short-range updates expected to refine odds ahead of the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan