Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns show steady but not extreme weekend volume, with prior seven-day windows resolving in the 180-239 band. The August 8-10 period lacks major product launches, regulatory developments, or public controversies that historically drive higher output, keeping activity aligned with baseline daily averages around 15-20 posts. The secondary <40 bucket at 27% captures the chance of a quieter stretch, while bins above 65 remain thin as they would require sustained engagement spikes not signaled in current X activity or news flow.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-64 59%
<40 28%
65-89 15%
90-114 2.4%
$151,672 Vol.
$151,672 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
<40
28%
40-64
59%
65-89
15%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 59%
<40 28%
65-89 15%
90-114 2.4%
$151,672 Vol.
$151,672 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
<40
$29,571 Vol.
28%
40-64
$16,225 Vol.
59%
65-89
$21,682 Vol.
15%
90-114
$26,797 Vol.
2%
115-139
$18,899 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$12,054 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$11,580 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,943 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,406 Vol.
<1%
240+
$5,514 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns show steady but not extreme weekend volume, with prior seven-day windows resolving in the 180-239 band. The August 8-10 period lacks major product launches, regulatory developments, or public controversies that historically drive higher output, keeping activity aligned with baseline daily averages around 15-20 posts. The secondary <40 bucket at 27% captures the chance of a quieter stretch, while bins above 65 remain thin as they would require sustained engagement spikes not signaled in current X activity or news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$151,672Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns show steady but not extreme weekend volume, with prior seven-day windows resolving in the 180-239 band. The August 8-10 period lacks major product launches, regulatory developments, or public controversies that historically drive higher output, keeping activity aligned with baseline daily averages around 15-20 posts. The secondary <40 bucket at 27% captures the chance of a quieter stretch, while bins above 65 remain thin as they would require sustained engagement spikes not signaled in current X activity or news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$151,672Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns show steady but not extreme weekend volume, with prior seven-day windows resolving in the 180-239 band. The August 8-10 period lacks major product launches, regulatory developments, or public controversies that historically drive higher output, keeping activity aligned with baseline daily averages around 15-20 posts. The secondary <40 bucket at 27% captures the chance of a quieter stretch, while bins above 65 remain thin as they would require sustained engagement spikes not signaled in current X activity or news flow.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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