Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$16,870 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$34,880 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$27,668 Vol.
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
$34,352 Vol.
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$12,161 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$10,242 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$17,207 Vol.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$212,451 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$7,371 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$6,710 Vol.
<1%
Other
$7,340 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$387,252Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$387,252Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37-38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-33% in first-round voting intentions, producing a 5-point gap that has narrowed from earlier margins amid high rejection rates for both frontrunners. Multiple aggregators confirm this pattern, with Augusto Cury gaining ground to 8-10% while other right-leaning names remain in single digits. The tightening stems from polarized voter blocs, security and economic concerns, campaign attacks, and recent revelations involving family members of the leading candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching and no candidate near 50%, traders price the narrowest victory bands highest, reflecting the slim polling separation and potential for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?
89%
Ya
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
90%
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
52%
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