NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth through at least the next century, with Sentry monitoring yielding impact probabilities below 10^-4 for cataloged objects. Continuous optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, supplemented by radar tracking, have detected thousands of near-Earth objects without identifying any capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy in 2026. As of mid-August, more than four months remain in the year, yet no imminent threats have emerged. Trader consensus at 97% “No” aligns with this observational record; the main residual uncertainty stems from the small chance of a previously undetected small body arriving with minimal warning, though historical impact rates and survey completeness make such an event improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
3% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth through at least the next century, with Sentry monitoring yielding impact probabilities below 10^-4 for cataloged objects. Continuous optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, supplemented by radar tracking, have detected thousands of near-Earth objects without identifying any capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy in 2026. As of mid-August, more than four months remain in the year, yet no imminent threats have emerged. Trader consensus at 97% “No” aligns with this observational record; the main residual uncertainty stems from the small chance of a previously undetected small body arriving with minimal warning, though historical impact rates and survey completeness make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,886Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth through at least the next century, with Sentry monitoring yielding impact probabilities below 10^-4 for cataloged objects. Continuous optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, supplemented by radar tracking, have detected thousands of near-Earth objects without identifying any capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy in 2026. As of mid-August, more than four months remain in the year, yet no imminent threats have emerged. Trader consensus at 97% “No” aligns with this observational record; the main residual uncertainty stems from the small chance of a previously undetected small body arriving with minimal warning, though historical impact rates and survey completeness make such an event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,886Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth through at least the next century, with Sentry monitoring yielding impact probabilities below 10^-4 for cataloged objects. Continuous optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, supplemented by radar tracking, have detected thousands of near-Earth objects without identifying any capable of delivering 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy in 2026. As of mid-August, more than four months remain in the year, yet no imminent threats have emerged. Trader consensus at 97% “No” aligns with this observational record; the main residual uncertainty stems from the small chance of a previously undetected small body arriving with minimal warning, though historical impact rates and survey completeness make such an event improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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