**Martial law, extended by parliament through at least 31 October 2026, continues to bar presidential elections under Ukraine’s constitution, while Article 108 permits the incumbent to retain powers until a successor is sworn in.** This framework, renewed in 90-day increments since 2022, leaves no legal pathway for a vote before year-end. Zelenskyy has repeatedly described wartime elections as a major risk that could divide the country, most recently in late August 2026 when rejecting calls from former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Public and expert consensus holds that organizing a credible national ballot amid active conflict, displacement, and occupied territory would require months of preparation even after martial law lifts, pushing any realistic contest well into 2027. Recent anti-corruption probes involving officials in the presidential office and polling showing Zelenskyy trailing potential rivals have increased domestic pressure, yet they have not altered the institutional barriers or produced any resignation signals. Traders therefore assign a 92.5% probability that he remains president through the end of 2026, reflecting the structural constraints and absence of near-term removal mechanisms.