Russia's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region as a ceasefire precondition, combined with stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since February 2026, underpins the 96% "No" probability. Kremlin statements on August 28 described negotiations as on "deep pause" while Russian forces continue eastern advances, and Ukrainian officials note Moscow has shown little appetite for compromise on neutrality or territorial issues. The short window to October 31 leaves minimal time for drafting, ratification, or implementation amid these gaps. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden U.S.-brokered framework acceptable to both sides, major battlefield reversals prompting concessions, or direct leadership-level intervention, though current positions and frontline dynamics make rapid agreement improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
4% संभावना
नया
नया
31 अक्टू, 2026
हाँ
4% संभावना
नया
नया
31 अक्टू, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region as a ceasefire precondition, combined with stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since February 2026, underpins the 96% "No" probability. Kremlin statements on August 28 described negotiations as on "deep pause" while Russian forces continue eastern advances, and Ukrainian officials note Moscow has shown little appetite for compromise on neutrality or territorial issues. The short window to October 31 leaves minimal time for drafting, ratification, or implementation amid these gaps. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden U.S.-brokered framework acceptable to both sides, major battlefield reversals prompting concessions, or direct leadership-level intervention, though current positions and frontline dynamics make rapid agreement improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$612समाप्ति तिथि
1 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region as a ceasefire precondition, combined with stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since February 2026, underpins the 96% "No" probability. Kremlin statements on August 28 described negotiations as on "deep pause" while Russian forces continue eastern advances, and Ukrainian officials note Moscow has shown little appetite for compromise on neutrality or territorial issues. The short window to October 31 leaves minimal time for drafting, ratification, or implementation amid these gaps. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden U.S.-brokered framework acceptable to both sides, major battlefield reversals prompting concessions, or direct leadership-level intervention, though current positions and frontline dynamics make rapid agreement improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$612समाप्ति तिथि
1 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Russia's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region as a ceasefire precondition, combined with stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks since February 2026, underpins the 96% "No" probability. Kremlin statements on August 28 described negotiations as on "deep pause" while Russian forces continue eastern advances, and Ukrainian officials note Moscow has shown little appetite for compromise on neutrality or territorial issues. The short window to October 31 leaves minimal time for drafting, ratification, or implementation amid these gaps. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden U.S.-brokered framework acceptable to both sides, major battlefield reversals prompting concessions, or direct leadership-level intervention, though current positions and frontline dynamics make rapid agreement improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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