Traders assign near-certain odds against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 because bilateral diplomacy remains active, economic integration under existing trade agreements continues without rupture, and no congressional authorization, troop deployments, or official policy statements signal military intervention. Focus stays on cooperative border security, migration management, and counternarcotics efforts rather than escalation. Historical precedent shows the U.S. avoids direct invasions of neighbors absent existential threats, with resources directed elsewhere. Late developments that could still alter the outcome include sudden major cross-border attacks, abrupt diplomatic collapse, or congressional action authorizing force.