Tensions in U.S.-Colombia relations, including 2025 disputes over counternarcotics cooperation, foreign assistance cuts, and diplomatic exchanges under the Trump and Petro administrations, have not produced any military deployments, threat assessments, or congressional authorizations that would signal invasion planning. Traders assign overwhelming probability to no U.S. military action in 2026 because bilateral security coordination continues through established channels, Colombia remains a designated major non-NATO ally, and upcoming leadership changes in Bogotá point toward potential de-escalation rather than confrontation. Diplomatic and economic tools remain the primary instruments for addressing shared concerns such as migration and organized crime. Late-breaking developments capable of shifting these odds would require an unforeseen crisis involving direct threats to U.S. interests or a complete breakdown in existing treaty frameworks.