The U.S. special operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involved targeted airstrikes and a brief raid to capture Nicolás Maduro without establishing territorial control or launching a sustained ground campaign. Subsequent policy has emphasized counter-cartel boat strikes, sanctions enforcement, and limited joint actions with partners such as Ecuador rather than broader military offensives against other nations. No comparable operations or visible preparations have occurred against countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, or Mexico through mid-August 2026. Traders assign low probabilities to additional large-scale interventions, viewing the administration’s approach as constrained by regional diplomatic pushback, the narrow scope of prior actions, and the absence of triggers for full invasions in the remaining months of the year.