Russian forces have concentrated their main offensive effort in eastern Donbas on Kostyantynivka since late 2025, using infiltration, small-unit assaults, and interdiction strikes after prior gains around Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. By June and July 2026, Russian tactical groups advanced into eastern, western, and central sectors of the city, reaching roughly one-third to over half of its area according to open-source mapping, while claiming full control on July 3. Ukrainian forces rejected those assertions, reported clearing infiltrators, and continued holding positions including the railway station amid ongoing urban combat and drone strikes on logistics. The incremental pace of advances, high attrition, and Ukrainian defensive adjustments in the surrounding Druzhkivka direction shape trader assessments of whether consolidated capture occurs by any near-term resolution date.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUkrainian forces strike Russian positions amid ongoing fighting in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 0%44%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops actively striking Russian positions in and around Kostyantynivka after infiltration missions, indicating contested control and slowing Russian advances, contributing to a decline in short-term capture odds.
Heavy Russian attacks on Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
July 31, 2026 plunges to 0%49%
Throughout July 2026, Russian forces launched intense attacks on Kostyantynivka, focusing on artillery, air strikes, and drone assaults, while Ukrainian defenders held their positions. This sustained fighting led to a sharp drop in market confidence for capture by July 31, 2026.
Ukrainian forces continue strikes and deny Russian control of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 5%44%
By late July 2026, Ukrainian forces maintained active operations in and around Kostyantynivka, conducting drone strikes against Russian positions and denying full Russian control. President Zelensky reiterated Ukraine's hold on the city, contributing to a decline in market confidence for near-term capture by July 31, 2026.
Russian glide bomb strikes intensify in Kostyantynivka, aiding infiltration missions
August 31, 2026 surges to 69%24%
Russian forces used glide bomb strikes to destroy Ukrainian strongpoints and facilitate infiltration into Kostyantynivka, imposing major challenges on Ukrainian defense and supporting gradual Russian gains in the city.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration missions
August 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces attacking Russian-occupied buildings in Kostyantynivka, indicating continued contested control and slowing Russian advances, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term capture.
Russia reiterates control over Kostyantynivka amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
On July 22, 2026, Russian officials reaffirmed that Kostyantynivka was under Russian control, describing it as a key post on the road to remaining Ukrainian strongholds in Donbas. This sustained market confidence in longer-term capture outcomes despite ongoing fighting.
Russian forces raise flag in Kostyantynivka's House of Culture amid contested control
September 30, 2026 drops to 74%7%
On July 19, footage showed Russian forces raising a flag in a key building in Kostyantynivka, signaling partial control, but Ukrainian units rejected claims of full city capture, reflecting ongoing contested urban fighting and uncertainty in control.
Analysis exposes slow and costly Russian advance in Kostyantynivka despite claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Investigative reports highlighted the slow pace and high cost of Russian advances in Kostyantynivka, with much of the city remaining contested and heavily damaged. This tempered market optimism for rapid capture and reflected the protracted nature of the battle.
CNN exposes slow pace of Russian advance despite claims of Kostyantynivka capture
August 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
CNN reported that despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces remain in Kostyantynivka amid slow and costly Russian advances, highlighting the ongoing contested control and dampening market confidence in a rapid capture.
CNN exposes false Russian claim of Kostyantynivka capture, highlighting slow Russian advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%2%
CNN reported that Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka were false, showing the slow and costly nature of Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, which tempered market optimism for near-term capture.
Reports expose slow and costly Russian advance in Kostyantynivka despite claims of capture
August 31, 2026 surges to 74%29%
Investigations revealed that despite Russian claims and videos showing control, significant parts of Kostyantynivka remained contested with ongoing Ukrainian resistance, highlighting the slow pace and high cost of the offensive, which tempered market optimism for near-term capture.
CNN exposes false Russian claim of Kostyantynivka capture, highlighting slow Russian advance
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%29%
CNN reported that despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces remained in Kostyantynivka, showing the slow and costly nature of Russian advances and contributing to market skepticism about near-term capture.
CNN exposes slow and costly Russian advance despite claims of Kostyantynivka capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
CNN reported that despite Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka on July 3, Ukrainian forces remained in control of key areas, revealing the slow and costly nature of the Russian offensive and sustaining market uncertainty.
CNN reports slow, costly Russian advance in Kostyantynivka despite claims of capture
July 31, 2026 plunges to 21%28%
CNN coverage highlighted the slow and costly nature of Russian advances in Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces still active in the city, casting doubt on Russian claims and contributing to market skepticism about near-term capture.
Putin’s false claim of Kostyantynivka capture exposes slow Russian advance
August 31, 2026 surges to 60%15%
Investigations and geolocated videos showed Russia had not fully captured Kostyantynivka despite official claims, highlighting the slow and costly nature of the offensive. This reinforced market skepticism about near-term capture, keeping short-term probabilities low.
CNN reports slow, costly Russian advance and false claims of Kostyantynivka capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
CNN detailed the slow and costly Russian infiltration of Kostyantynivka, highlighting the persistence of Russian forces despite heavy casualties and the false nature of Russian claims of full capture. This report underscored the ongoing contested nature of the city and influenced market skepticism about imminent capture.
CNN reports slow and costly Russian advance in Kostyantynivka despite claims of capture
August 31, 2026 surges to 66%21%
CNN's on-the-ground reporting revealed ongoing fierce fighting and heavy Russian casualties around Kostyantynivka, undermining Russian claims of full control and influencing market caution on near-term capture.
Ukrainian sources contest Russia's claim of full capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 17%32%
Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces released videos showing ongoing fighting and drone strikes in Kostyantynivka, highlighting the slow and costly nature of the battle and tempering market confidence in near-term capture.
Putin’s false claim of Kostyantynivka capture exposes slow Russian advance
Investigations and geolocated videos showed that Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka were exaggerated, with Ukrainian forces still holding significant parts, highlighting the slow and costly nature of the Russian offensive.
Russian forces advance in western Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks
August 31, 2026 surges to 69%24%
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances in parts of Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian forces counterattacked, indicating the battle was ongoing and contested, which contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility for near-term capture dates.
Fierce urban fighting continues in Kostyantynivka; Ukrainian commanders deny encirclement
July 31, 2026 plunges to 43%16%
On July 13, intense urban combat persisted with Russian forces inside Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian commanders denied encirclement and maintained control over parts of the city. The situation remained fluid and contested, contributing to volatile market prices and skepticism about imminent full Russian capture.
Donetsk official reports ongoing Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 jumps to 66%10%
Donetsk Oblast Military Administration head reported increased Russian strikes and attempts to control access roads near Kostyantynivka, indicating continued fighting and challenging Russian consolidation, tempering market confidence in rapid capture.
Evidence of ongoing Ukrainian resistance in Kostyantynivka despite Russian claims
July 31, 2026 plunges to 21%36%
Geolocated footage and statements from Ukrainian officials confirmed continued Ukrainian operations and counterattacks in Kostyantynivka, undermining Russian claims of full control. This contributed to market price declines for near-term capture outcomes and tempered confidence in rapid Russian victory.
Ukraine denies Russian claims of full capture; Ukrainian troops remain inside Kostyantynivka
July 19, 2026 plunges to 18%24%
By mid-July, Ukrainian forces publicly denied Russian claims of full capture, stating they still operated inside Kostyantynivka despite difficult logistics and intense fighting. This led to a sharp drop in market prices for capture by July 19, reflecting increased uncertainty about near-term Russian control.
Russian forces occupy parts of Kostyantynivka but fighting continues
Despite Russian claims of full capture, Ukrainian troops remain active inside Kostyantynivka, with ongoing street-by-street clashes and contested control, reflecting a protracted and costly battle.
Reports reveal Russian forces inside Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian resistance persists
July 31, 2026 plunges to 23%18%
Mid-July reports indicated that while Russian assault groups were present inside parts of Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces remained active elsewhere in the city, suggesting a contested control rather than full capture. This contributed to declining market confidence in near-term capture.
Reports confirm ongoing Ukrainian resistance inside Kostyantynivka despite Russian claims
July 31, 2026 plunges to 19%16%
Independent reports and Ukrainian military sources confirmed that Ukrainian troops remained inside Kostyantynivka, continuing to fight despite Russian claims of capture. This reality check contributed to the market's sharp decline in near-term capture probabilities.
Ukrainian troops remain active inside Kostyantynivka despite Russian claims
July 31, 2026 plunges to 20%19%
Reports confirmed Ukrainian forces still operated within parts of Kostyantynivka, challenging Russian assertions of full control. This prolonged the battle and contributed to the decline in market confidence for immediate capture dates.
Ukrainian Troops Inside Kostyantynivka Confirm Ongoing Battles and Deny Russian Control
July 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
Reports from inside the city confirmed that despite Moscow's claims of a settled battle, Ukrainian troops remained inside and continued to actively fight Russian forces.
Reports confirm Russian control of Kostyantynivka despite Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 drops to 86%6%
Despite Ukrainian denials, multiple reports and military assessments confirmed Russian forces had established control over Kostyantynivka by early July, consolidating gains and preparing for further advances. This supported sustained market confidence in capture by end of 2026.
Ukrainian troops remain inside Kostyantynivka despite Russian claims
July 31, 2026 plunges to 20%29%
Despite Russian announcements of capture, Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions inside the city and fight, maintaining a shrinking corridor for resupply. This sustained uncertainty kept market prices for near-term capture very low.
Russian claims of Kostyantynivka capture contradicted by Ukrainian troops inside city
July 19, 2026 plunges to 4%38%
Despite Russian assertions of full control, Ukrainian forces remained active inside Kostyantynivka, with fighting ongoing and no clear Russian operational breakthrough, leading to a sharp drop in short-term capture probabilities.
Reports highlight ongoing contested battle in Kostyantynivka despite Russian claims
August 31, 2026 drops to 47%13%
On July 11, reports indicated that despite Russian claims of capture, Ukrainian troops remained active inside Kostyantynivka, with fighting continuing in parts of the city. This underscored the slow and costly nature of the battle, influencing market skepticism about near-term capture.
Ukrainian fighter jets conduct airstrikes on Russian positions in Kostyantynivka city center
August 31, 2026 jumps to 56%11%
Ukrainian airstrikes demonstrated continued contested control of Kostyantynivka, undermining Russian claims of full capture and contributing to market uncertainty for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions and conduct strikes in Kostyantynivka area
July 31, 2026 plunges to 19%30%
Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions within Kostyantynivka and conducted strikes against Russian forces, indicating the city remained contested. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in near-term capture probabilities.
Ukrainian troops deny Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, report ongoing fighting
July 31, 2026 plunges to 12%37%
Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian milbloggers disputed Kremlin claims, stating that fighting continued and Russian troops suffered heavy losses, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline for short-term capture.
Ukrainian frontline troops dispute Kremlin claims, report ongoing fighting in Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian troops and even some pro-Russian sources contradicted Kremlin claims of full Russian control, reporting intense urban fighting and significant Russian losses due to Ukrainian drone strikes. This maintained market skepticism about a rapid Russian capture.
Fierce urban fighting continues in Kostyantynivka with contested control
July 31, 2026 drops to 17%12%
Geolocated footage showed ongoing clashes with Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions and Ukrainian forces maintaining or advancing in parts of Kostyantynivka. This sustained fighting contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in near-term capture probabilities.
ISW reports Russian forces infiltrated but not fully seized Kostyantynivka despite Kremlin claims
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces had infiltrated Kostyantynivka but had not secured full control, highlighting a coordinated Russian information campaign to exaggerate gains, sustaining market uncertainty.
Russia says Ukraine rejects local ceasefire for handover of soldiers’ bodies in Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%
Russian Defense Ministry stated Ukraine refused to halt shelling of Kostyantynivka to allow body recovery, indicating ongoing fighting and contested control, which maintained market uncertainty about full Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian military leadership stages information campaign highlighting claimed capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Ahead of a call between Putin and Trump, Russian officials amplified claims of capturing Kostyantynivka to pressure Ukraine and its partners, influencing market perceptions.
Ukraine denies Russian capture, fighting continues in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 19%30%
On July 5, Ukrainian officials denied that Kostyantynivka had fallen and reported ongoing fighting, indicating the city remained contested. This caused a sharp drop in market prices for the July 31, 2026 capture outcome, reflecting uncertainty about immediate capture.
Kremlin conducts information campaign to amplify claimed capture of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 90%9%
The Kremlin launched a targeted information campaign to promote the narrative of Russian control over Kostyantynivka, including staged meetings and amplified claims by officials. This effort aimed to influence international perception despite ongoing contested fighting.
Russia accuses Ukraine of rejecting local ceasefire over Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 dips to 59%1%
Russia's Defence Ministry accused Ukraine of refusing to halt shelling of Kostyantynivka to allow recovery of fallen soldiers' bodies, indicating ongoing conflict and undermining claims of full Russian control. This sustained uncertainty kept market prices volatile.
Kremlin conducts information campaign to highlight claimed capture to US administration
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On July 5, reports indicated the Kremlin was conducting a targeted information campaign to promote the claimed capture of Kostyantynivka to the Trump administration and Western audiences, aiming to pressure Ukraine and its partners. This sustained market confidence in longer-term capture outcomes despite battlefield uncertainty.
Russian forces infiltrate Kostyantynivka but do not fully control it, Kremlin pushes narrative
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%4%
Despite Kremlin claims, Russian forces had infiltrated but not fully seized Kostyantynivka by July 5. The Kremlin conducted an information campaign to highlight the claimed capture, influencing market perceptions amid ongoing fighting.
ISW reports Russian forces infiltrated but not seized Kostyantynivka, Kremlin exaggerates claims
September 30, 2026 dips to 74%3%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces had infiltrated parts of Kostyantynivka but not fully seized it, and that Kremlin officials exaggerated advances as part of an information campaign, affecting market confidence.
Russian forces continue infiltration and limited advances in Kostyantynivka
Despite Russian claims, independent assessments indicated Russian forces had infiltrated parts of Kostyantynivka but had not fully seized the city. This ongoing contested situation maintained market uncertainty, supporting high prices for later capture dates but limiting near-term capture confidence.
Russian officials amplify claims of Kostyantynivka capture amid ongoing fighting
September 30, 2026 rises to 80%3%
Russian military and Kremlin officials continued to claim full control of Kostyantynivka, releasing footage and statements to support their narrative despite evidence of ongoing Ukrainian resistance. This information campaign influenced market prices, sustaining higher probabilities for later capture dates.
US President Trump holds calls with Putin and Zelensky amid Kostyantynivka dispute
On July 5, US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the ongoing conflict and the situation around Kostyantynivka. This diplomatic engagement highlighted international attention and potential pressure on conflict resolution, affecting market sentiment.
ISW reports Russian infiltration but not full seizure of Kostyantynivka despite Kremlin claims
Independent analysts noted that Russian forces had infiltrated parts of Kostyantynivka but had not fully captured the city, indicating ongoing fighting and casting doubt on official Russian claims.
Russia accuses Ukraine of rejecting local ceasefire in Kostyantynivka dispute
July 31, 2026 drops to 36%13%
Russia claimed Ukraine refused a local ceasefire around Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing hostilities and a frozen battlefield, which contributed to market skepticism about near-term Russian capture.
Russia accuses Ukraine of rejecting local ceasefire over Kostyantynivka dispute
Russia claimed Ukraine refused to halt shelling to allow body recovery, emphasizing ongoing conflict despite Russian capture claims. This maintained uncertainty and contributed to volatility in market prices for near-term capture outcomes.
Russia accuses Ukraine of rejecting local ceasefire in Kostyantynivka dispute
July 19, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia accused Ukraine of refusing to halt shelling to allow body recovery, highlighting ongoing conflict and contested control, sustaining uncertainty and low market confidence in near-term capture.
Ukraine rejects Russia's claim of full control over Kostyantynivka
Ukraine denied Russian claims of full capture, stating Ukrainian forces remained active in the city, which tempered market confidence and highlighted ongoing contested control.
Kremlin conducts information campaign highlighting claimed capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Following Putin's claim, Kremlin officials staged meetings and disseminated information to portray the Ukrainian frontlines as collapsing, aiming to pressure Ukraine and its partners. This sustained the elevated market prices despite ongoing fighting.
Russian forces continue infiltration and limited advances in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 26%27%
Despite claims of capture, Russian forces continued infiltration missions and limited offensive operations without confirmed advances, while Ukrainian forces maintained positions. This sustained uncertainty kept market confidence mixed for capture by July 31, 2026.
Russia accuses Ukraine of refusing ceasefire to hand over soldiers' bodies in Kostyantynivka
On July 5, 2026, the Russian Defense Ministry stated Ukraine refused to halt shelling in Kostyantynivka to allow the handover of fallen soldiers' bodies, indicating ongoing conflict and contested control despite Russian claims. This maintained market uncertainty about full Russian control.
ISW reports Kremlin's information campaign exaggerating Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces had infiltrated but not fully seized Kostyantynivka, and that Kremlin officials were using AI-altered footage and exaggerated claims as part of a cognitive warfare effort. This nuanced view tempered market enthusiasm despite official Russian claims.
ISW reports Russian information campaign highlighting claimed capture of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
September 30, 2026 jumps to 90%5%
On July 5, ISW noted the Kremlin's targeted information campaign to emphasize the claimed capture of Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian officials and milbloggers continued to refute full Russian control. This created uncertainty reflected in mixed market price movements.
Ukrainian President Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka and warns of new attacks
Zelensky publicly rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, stating that fighting was ongoing and Ukrainian forces were holding the city. He also warned of impending large-scale Russian attacks, contributing to market uncertainty about the city's status.
Russian forces continue infiltration and limited offensive operations in Kostyantynivka area
August 31, 2026 jumps to 66%10%
Despite claims of capture, Russian forces maintained infiltration missions and limited offensives without confirmed advances, indicating the battle remains contested and affecting market confidence for near-term capture.
Kremlin launches information campaign to amplify claimed capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
The Kremlin intensified a targeted information campaign to promote the narrative of Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, aiming to influence Western and domestic perceptions. This sustained the market's elevated probabilities for longer-term capture despite ongoing fighting.
Russia accuses Ukraine of rejecting local ceasefire over Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 drops to 82%7%
Russia claimed Ukraine refused to halt shelling to allow body recovery in Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing conflict and contested control, sustaining market uncertainty about the city's status.
Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin amplify claims of Kostyantynivka capture
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%9%
Following Putin's claim, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin officials released footage and statements asserting full control of Kostyantynivka, aiming to solidify the narrative of victory and boost morale and market confidence.
Ukrainian officials deny Russian capture of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
July 19, 2026 plunges to 1%41%
Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian officials and military sources denied that Kostyantynivka had fallen, reporting continued Ukrainian presence and resistance inside the city. This contradiction led to a sharp drop in market prices for near-term capture outcomes.
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 surges to 60%15%
The Russian Defence Ministry officially announced that its forces had captured Kostyantynivka, reinforcing Putin's claims. However, Ukrainian officials and independent observers denied the capture, maintaining that fighting continued and the city was not fully controlled by Russia.
Ukraine denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 0%32%
President Zelensky and Ukrainian General Staff rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, maintaining that Ukrainian forces still control the city. This caused market uncertainty and price volatility for near-term capture outcomes.
Putin hails Kostyantynivka capture as major strategic victory
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
President Putin publicly praised the capture of Kostyantynivka as a significant battlefield gain, reinforcing market confidence despite ongoing contested fighting reported by Ukrainian sources.
Zelensky Denies Russian Claims of Capturing Kostiantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 56%27%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the General Staff rejected the Russian claims, asserting that Ukraine still controls the strategically important city.
Zelensky and Ukrainian General Staff deny Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 13%36%
Ukrainian President Zelensky and military officials rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, stating Ukraine still controls the city, which introduced uncertainty and caused market volatility.
Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, asserts Ukrainian control
July 31, 2026 plunges to 7%42%
President Zelensky and Ukrainian General Staff rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, stating the city remains under Ukrainian control, causing market uncertainty and a drop in near-term capture probabilities.
Ukraine denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, reports ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%9%
Ukrainian President Zelensky and military sources denied Russian claims of full capture, stating that Ukrainian forces still hold positions and that Russian troops number only 100-250 inside the city, maintaining skepticism about Russian announcements.
Zelensky and Ukrainian Military Explicitly Deny Fall of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 47%15%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Eastern Operational Command rejected Russia's claims of capture, stating that Ukrainian forces still control and fight inside the city.
Ukrainian officials deny Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Ukraine’s President Zelensky and military sources explicitly rejected Russian claims of full capture, stating Ukrainian forces still outnumbered Russians in the city. This introduced uncertainty but did not reverse market gains significantly.
Russia officially announces capture of Kostyantynivka, Kremlin confirms control
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed full control of Kostyantynivka by Russian forces, with Putin thanking troops and emphasizing the strategic importance, solidifying market belief in the event's occurrence.
Kremlin confirms full control of Kostyantynivka, Putin hails strategic importance
July 31, 2026 rises to 58%4%
On July 4, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed full Russian control of Kostyantynivka, with Putin emphasizing its strategic value, solidifying market belief in the city's capture by end of July and beyond.
Ukraine denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, fighting continues amid conflicting reports
September 30, 2026 jumps to 89%5%
Ukrainian officials and independent analysts rejected Russian claims, stating that Ukrainian forces still control most of the city and fighting persists, creating market uncertainty and skepticism about the capture claim.
Kremlin and Putin hail Kostyantynivka capture as major strategic victory
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On July 4, Kremlin spokesman and Putin publicly celebrated the claimed capture of Kostyantynivka as a major strategic victory, reinforcing market confidence in eventual Russian control by year-end.
Ukraine denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 19, 2026 plunges to 1%41%
Ukrainian President Zelensky and military officials denied Russian claims, stating Ukrainian forces still controlled parts of the city, causing market prices for near-term capture dates to plummet sharply.
Putin publicly hails capture of Kostyantynivka as major strategic victory
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
President Putin appeared on television in military uniform to thank Russian soldiers and declare the capture of Kostyantynivka a major strategic victory, reinforcing market optimism for capture by year-end despite ongoing conflict.
Russian army launches 'search and elimination operations' after claiming Kostyantynivka capture
Following the claimed capture, Russian forces began operations to eliminate remaining Ukrainian soldiers in Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the narrative of control and influencing market confidence in the December 31 outcome.
Russian military command heavily aggrandizes claimed seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Despite Ukrainian denials, Russian officials and media amplified claims of full control over Kostyantynivka, using staged footage and information campaigns to influence perceptions and market sentiment.
Putin publicly claims strategic victory in Kostyantynivka, Russian army launches clearance operations
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On July 4, President Putin declared the capture of Kostyantynivka a strategic victory and announced Russian army operations to eliminate remaining Ukrainian soldiers. This reinforced market optimism for capture by late 2026, though Ukrainian resistance reports persisted.
Ukrainian officials deny Russian claims of full capture, fighting continues
July 31, 2026 drops to 37%12%
Ukraine's President Zelensky and military sources rejected Russian claims, stating that fighting was ongoing and Ukrainian forces still held positions. This introduced uncertainty, causing some price volatility and a decline in near-term capture likelihood.
Russian General Staff Chief Gerasimov reports full control of Kostyantynivka to Putin
September 30, 2026 surges to 87%20%
General Valery Gerasimov informed President Putin that Russian units were in complete control of Kostyantynivka, reinforcing Moscow's claims and supporting market gains for longer-term capture probabilities despite Ukrainian denials.
Ukraine's Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%46%
President Zelensky and Ukrainian General Staff rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, stating Ukraine still controls the city, which introduced uncertainty and caused market prices for near-term capture dates to drop sharply.
Ukrainian President Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 3%46%
Following Russian claims, Ukrainian President Zelensky and the General Staff denied that Kostyantynivka was fully captured, highlighting ongoing fighting and uncertainty, which contributed to a sharp drop in the July 31, 2026 market outcome probability.
Putin publicly praises capture of Kostyantynivka, Russian forces conduct clearance operations
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On July 4, Putin appeared on television praising the capture of Kostyantynivka and Russian forces began search and elimination operations against remaining Ukrainian soldiers. This reinforced market confidence in the capture by end of 2026, pushing prices to near peak levels.
Ukrainian forces conduct airstrikes on Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing combat
August 31, 2026 jumps to 50%5%
On July 4, Ukrainian fighter jets launched airstrikes targeting Russian forces in the city center and industrial zones of Kostyantynivka, demonstrating continued Ukrainian resistance and contesting Russian claims of full control, sustaining market uncertainty.
Putin praises capture of Kostyantynivka as major strategic victory
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%13%
On July 4, President Putin publicly thanked Russian troops for capturing Kostyantynivka, calling it a major strategic achievement. This official endorsement aimed to bolster Russian morale and influence perceptions internationally, impacting market confidence in longer-term capture outcomes.
Ukraine's President Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 drops to 35%14%
President Zelensky and the Ukrainian General Staff rejected Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, stating Ukraine still controls the city. This denial tempered market confidence, especially for the near-term July 31, 2026 outcome, which declined.
Russia proposes ceasefire and handover of bodies in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 drops to 35%14%
Russia proposed a ceasefire and humanitarian handover of bodies in Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing fighting and contested control despite claims of capture. This suggested the city was not fully secured, influencing market skepticism about near-term capture.
Ukrainian President Zelensky denies full Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 11%23%
Following Russian claims, Ukrainian President Zelensky and the General Staff denied that Kostyantynivka had been fully captured, stating that fighting continued and Ukrainian forces remained active in the city. This caused market uncertainty and a decline in short-term capture probabilities.
Putin hails claimed capture of Kostyantynivka; Ukraine denies full loss
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%4%
On July 4, Putin celebrated the claimed capture of Kostyantynivka as a major strategic victory, while Ukrainian President Zelensky and military sources denied that the city was fully lost, highlighting ongoing contested control. This event reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Putin hails capture of Kostyantynivka as major strategic victory
President Vladimir Putin publicly praised Russian forces for capturing Kostyantynivka, emphasizing its strategic importance for further advances in Donbas. This official endorsement reinforced market confidence in Russian capture by end of 2026.
Putin hails Kostyantynivka capture as major strategic victory in televised briefing
September 30, 2026 jumps to 92%6%
Putin’s televised briefing on July 3‑4 emphasizing the capture of Kostyantynivka reinforced the perception of a decisive Russian win, driving the September 30 2026 market to its peak of 92 % on 4 July (a +6 pt swing from the previous day).
Putin repeats claim Russia captured Kostyantynivka as Ukraine denies it
September 30, 2026 surges to 88%17%
Putin reiterated the claim that Kostyantynivka had been seized, while Ukrainian officials denied it. The reaffirmation of the capture pushed the September 30 2026 probability sharply upward to 88 % on 5 July (+17 pts).
Ukrainian President Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Following Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the General Staff denied that the city was fully under Russian control, maintaining that Ukrainian forces still held key positions. This contradiction caused market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Ukraine denies full loss of Kostyantynivka, fighting continues in city
July 31, 2026 plunges to 8%41%
Following Russian claims, Ukrainian forces denied losing full control of Kostyantynivka, reporting ongoing combat in parts of the city, which tempered market confidence for near-term capture and contributed to a decline in the July 31 capture probability.
Zelenskyy denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, asserts Ukrainian control
August 15, 2026 plunges to 27%32%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and General Staff rejected Russian claims of full capture, stating Ukraine still controls the city, causing short-term market price drops for near-term capture outcomes.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, affirming ongoing defense
Following Russian claims, Ukrainian leadership publicly rejected the capture, stating Ukrainian forces still control key parts of Kostyantynivka, contributing to market price drops for near-term capture outcomes.
Ukrainian President Zelensky denies Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, fighting continues
July 19, 2026 plunges to 18%24%
Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian President Zelensky and military sources denied the city had fallen, reporting ongoing fighting and Ukrainian control of parts of Kostyantynivka, which introduced uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Russian President Putin publicly thanks troops for 'major strategic' victory in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On July 4, Vladimir Putin appeared in military uniform on television to thank Russian troops for capturing Kostyantynivka, calling it a victory of major strategic importance. This high-profile endorsement reinforced Russian claims and influenced market optimism for longer-term capture outcomes.
Russia claims full capture of Kostyantynivka; Ukraine denies control loss
July 31, 2026 plunges to 5%44%
On July 3, Russian military claimed to have fully captured Kostyantynivka, posting videos of troops inside the city. However, Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, denied the city had fallen, stating Ukrainian forces still controlled key parts. This conflicting information caused volatility in market prices, with some short-term capture odds dropping.
Russia claims full capture of Kostyantynivka; Putin hails strategic victory
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%8%
Russian Defense Ministry and President Putin claimed full control of Kostyantynivka on July 3, 2026, marking a major strategic milestone. This announcement caused a sharp rise in market confidence for longer-term capture dates, despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Russian Defense Ministry and Putin claim full capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%10%
Russian President Putin and the Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces had seized Kostyantynivka, hailing it as a major strategic victory. This caused a sharp increase in market prices for capture by all dates, reflecting perceived progress.
Putin claims capture of Kostyantynivka amid intensified Donbas offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Putin publicly declared the capture of Kostyantynivka, marking a significant battlefield gain and bringing Russian forces closer to key Ukrainian strongholds, boosting market optimism for longer-term capture outcomes.
Russia says it captured Kostyantynivka, a key Donbas stronghold
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%14%
The Russian Defence Ministry announced that it had captured Kostyantynivka, a claim repeated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The announcement pushed market participants’ belief that Russia would secure the city before year‑end, lifting the December 31 2026 and September 30 2026 probabilities sharply (from ~78 % to ~92 % and from ~50 % to ~87 % respectively).
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 93%44%
On July 3, 2026, the Russian Defence Ministry officially claimed full control of Kostyantynivka, marking a significant strategic victory and causing a sharp rise in market confidence for capture by all later dates except July 31, 2026 which dropped.
Russian Defence Ministry claims full capture of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 89%19%
Russia officially announced it had taken control of Kostyantynivka, a key strategic city, leading to a sharp increase in market prices for capture by September 30, 2026, and August 31, 2026. However, Ukrainian officials denied the claim, creating market uncertainty.
Putin hails Kostyantynivka capture as major strategic victory
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%9%
President Vladimir Putin publicly praised Russian troops for capturing Kostyantynivka, emphasizing its strategic importance and reinforcing market confidence in Russia's progress by the end of July.
Russia claims capture of Kostyantynivka, Putin hails 'major strategic' victory
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%5%
Russian Defense Ministry announced full control of Kostyantynivka, with Putin praising the capture as a major strategic gain, causing a sharp rise in market prices for later capture dates despite Ukrainian denials.
Russian Defence Ministry claims full capture of Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine
July 31, 2026 plunges to 23%26%
Russian military announced it had taken control of Kostyantynivka, a key strategic city, marking a major battlefield gain and causing a sharp market reaction, though Ukrainian forces disputed full control.
Russian Defence Ministry Claims Capture of Kostiantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 87%18%
The Russian Defence Ministry and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian forces had taken complete control of Kostiantynivka, which President Vladimir Putin hailed as a major strategic victory.
Russian Defense Ministry claims full capture of Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 surges to 66%21%
On July 3, the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had captured Kostyantynivka, marking a significant claimed battlefield gain. This announcement caused a sharp increase in market prices for capture by August, September, and December 2026. However, Ukrainian officials and milbloggers disputed the claim, stating Ukrainian forces still held parts of the city.
Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 6%43%
Russia's military announced full control of Kostyantynivka, marking a significant claimed victory and causing a sharp market reaction, though Ukrainian officials disputed the claim.
Russian Defence Ministry claims full capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%5%
On July 3, 2026, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had taken control of Kostyantynivka, a key strategic city in eastern Ukraine. This claim caused a spike in market confidence for capture by year-end, though Ukrainian officials disputed full control.
Putin and Russian commanders claim full capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%9%
Russian President Putin and senior commanders publicly claimed the seizure of Kostyantynivka, presenting it as a major strategic victory. This announcement caused a sharp market price increase despite contradictory evidence from Ukrainian sources.
Russia claims capture of Kostyantynivka, Putin hails major strategic victory
August 31, 2026 jumps to 50%5%
On July 3, 2026, Russia officially claimed it had captured Kostyantynivka, a key stronghold in eastern Ukraine, with President Putin calling it a major strategic victory. This announcement caused a sharp increase in market confidence for the August 31, 2026 and December 31, 2026 outcomes, despite Ukrainian denials.
Russia says its forces captured Kostyantynivka; Putin lauds strategic win
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%9%
The Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had captured Kostyantynivka, and Putin publicly hailed the “major strategic victory.” The claim sharply boosted confidence that the city would fall by year‑end, pushing the December 31 2026 probability up to 95 % on 5 July (+9 pts).
Putin publicly hails 'major strategic' victory in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, emphasizing its strategic importance and boosting Russian morale. This statement reinforced market optimism about eventual Russian control by year-end.
Putin and Russian MoD claim full capture of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
September 30, 2026 surges to 87%18%
On July 3, Russian President Putin and the Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces had seized Kostyantynivka, despite evidence of ongoing Ukrainian resistance and contested control. This announcement caused a sharp market price increase for the September 30, 2026 outcome.
Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%8%
Russia announced full control of Kostyantynivka, a key strategic city in eastern Ukraine, boosting market confidence in capture by December 31, 2026. This was a major milestone in Russia's Donbas campaign.
Putin hails claimed capture of strategic Donetsk city Kostyantynivka
President Putin celebrated the claimed capture of Kostyantynivka, framing it as a strategic victory that brings Russian forces closer to controlling the Donbas region, reinforcing market optimism for capture by year-end 2026.
Kremlin announces full Russian control of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 47%18%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov officially announced that Russian forces have taken complete control of Kostyantynivka, marking a major milestone in the Donbas campaign and confirming market expectations of capture by year-end.
Putin claims Russia has captured 96 % of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
Putin publicly claimed Russia had seized 96 % of Kostyantynivka. The market responded with a strong rise for the July‑31 contract (+13 pts on 2026‑07‑04, from 28 % to 54 %).
Putin Claims Russian Forces Have Captured Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 88%21%
President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense declared full control over the strategic stronghold of Kostyantynivka, causing capture probabilities across all timelines to surge.
Russian Defence Ministry says its forces captured Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%5%
The Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had taken control of Kostyantynivka, a key city in eastern Ukraine, marking a major strategic victory and causing a sharp rise in market confidence for capture by year-end 2026.
Putin hails capture of Kostyantynivka as 'major strategic' victory
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%5%
President Putin publicly praised the capture of Kostyantynivka as a significant strategic achievement, reinforcing market optimism for Russian success by the end of 2026.
Russia claims capture of Kostyantynivka, Putin hails 'major strategic' victory
Russian President Putin announced that Russian forces had fully captured Kostyantynivka, describing it as a major strategic victory, which caused a sharp market reaction despite widespread skepticism and Ukrainian denials of full control.
Russian Defense Ministry claims full capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%5%
The Russian Defense Ministry announced that its forces had taken control of Kostyantynivka, a key strategic city in Donetsk. President Putin hailed this as a major strategic victory, boosting market confidence in the December 31, 2026 and September 30, 2026 outcomes. However, Ukrainian officials and independent sources disputed full Russian control, causing uncertainty.
Russia claims capture of Kostyantynivka, Putin hails major strategic victory
September 30, 2026 surges to 85%53%
Russian military announced complete control of Kostyantynivka, with President Putin praising the capture as a major strategic gain, boosting market confidence in later 2026 capture dates despite Ukrainian denials.
Putin claims full seizure of Kostyantynivka, Russian MoD releases supporting footage
September 30, 2026 jumps to 90%13%
Russian President Putin and the Ministry of Defense claimed full capture of Kostyantynivka, releasing footage to support the claim. This caused a sharp market price increase despite contradictory evidence from Ukrainian sources and analysts.
Russia Claims Complete Capture of Strategic Stronghold Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 62%29%
The Russian Defense Ministry and President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces had completely captured the strategic city of Kostyantynivka, hailing it as a major strategic victory.
Russian President Putin claims capture of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
July 31, 2026 plunges to 34%15%
Putin publicly claimed Russian forces had seized Kostyantynivka, despite evidence and Ukrainian reports indicating continued fighting and Ukrainian control in parts of the city. This claim was part of a broader information campaign to influence perceptions of the conflict.
Russian Defense Ministry claims capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%7%
On July 3, 2026, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that Russian forces had taken control of Kostyantynivka, with President Putin hailing it as a major strategic victory. This claim caused a sharp increase in market prices for longer-term capture outcomes, despite Ukrainian denials and ongoing fighting.
Pravda: Russian claim of Kostyantynivka capture proven false
July 31, 2026 plunges to 28%18%
Pravda reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence’s claim of capture was false, highlighting internal contradictions. The denial pulled the July 31 2026 odds down briefly (a 9‑point dip on July 3) before the later consolidation report restored them.
Putin claims full capture of Kostyantynivka, marking major strategic victory
July 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
Russian President Putin publicly declared the capture of Kostyantynivka on July 3, 2026, a significant milestone that sharply increased market confidence in the city falling by July and September 2026 deadlines.
ISW: Russian forces consolidate positions inside Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 53%25%
ISW noted that Russian forces continued infiltration and began consolidating positions inside Kostyantynivka. The update coincided with the sharp rise in the July 31 2026 probability (from 28 % on July 3 to 53 % on July 4).
Russian ‘South’ grouping occupies remaining quarters of Kostyantynivka in heavy fighting
July 31, 2026 dips to 29%3%
Pravda Ukraine reported that Russian “South” grouping units occupied the remaining quarters of Kostyantynivka, confirming heavy fighting but no decisive capture. This reinforced market sentiment that a capture before July 31 was unlikely, solidifying the low price at 29 %.
Russian assault groups occupy remaining quarters of Kostyantynivka amid heavy fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%12%
Russian forces established footholds in urban areas and pushed Ukrainian defenders westward, methodically advancing in the city. This progress increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture by later dates.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration missions
July 31, 2026 plunges to 33%16%
On July 2, Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian positions in Kostyantynivka, indicating continued contested control and preventing Russian consolidation, which tempered market optimism for immediate capture.
Heavy fighting continues in Kostyantynivka with Russian forces occupying remaining quarters
July 31, 2026 drops to 38%11%
Russian assault groups established footholds in parts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces continued to contest control, reflecting ongoing intense urban combat and uncertainty about full capture.
Russian forces launch combined strikes across Ukraine including near Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 surges to 61%16%
On July 2, Russian forces conducted widespread strikes including near Kostyantynivka, intensifying pressure on Ukrainian defenses and signaling a major offensive push, which influenced market expectations for imminent capture.
Russian forces consolidate positions within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration missions
Russian forces continued infiltration and consolidated some positions within Kostyantynivka, indicating gradual operational progress despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 87%7%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces consolidating positions within Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions, indicating continued contested control and ongoing battle for the city.
Ukraine intensifies long-range strikes disrupting Russian logistics and operations
December 31, 2026 rises to 86%4%
Throughout June and into early July, Ukraine intensified intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns against Russian military assets and logistics, causing cascading effects on Russian battlefield operations and contributing to Russian operational difficulties around Kostyantynivka.
ISW: Russian forces hold ~37 % of Kostyantynivka by early July
September 30, 2026 rises to 86%4%
The ISW July‑1 assessment emphasised that Russian gains in Kostyantynivka were “gradual and creeping,” noting 36.98 % of the city under Russian presence. That analysis helped sustain the upward trajectory of the September 30 2026 probability (maintaining it near 86 %).
Russian forces infiltrate about 37% of Kostyantynivka, making significant June gains
December 31, 2026 surges to 92%16%
Russian troops made slow but steady tactical advances in Kostyantynivka during June 2026, consolidating control over parts of the city and sustaining pressure on Ukrainian defenders, supporting rising market prices for capture by year-end.
ISW reports slow, costly Russian tactical gains in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on July 1, 2026, that Russian forces had been making slow and costly tactical gains in Kostyantynivka after months of intensified operations, but a rapid operational breakthrough remained unlikely. This tempered market expectations for near-term capture.
DeepState map notes Russian successes around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%7%
DeepState’s map update on 30 June and a 1 July post acknowledged “the enemy had successes in the area of Kostyantynivka” in the second half of June. This confirmation of recent Russian advances lifted the “December 31 2026” odds back up to 83 % after a brief dip earlier in July.
Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive fails to achieve significant gains
July 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
On July 1, reports confirmed that Russia's offensive, including efforts around Kostyantynivka, failed to achieve operationally significant gains in June 2026, with heavy casualties and equipment losses. This reality reduced market confidence in a near-term capture by July 31, 2026.
DeepState OSINT reports Russian forces control 37% of Kostyantynivka, ongoing fighting continues
July 31, 2026 plunges to 28%21%
On July 1, DeepState OSINT confirmed Russian control of approximately 37% of Kostyantynivka with continued attempts to capture the city. This realistic assessment contributed to a sharp decline in market confidence for capture by July 31, 2026, while longer-term outcomes remained relatively stable.
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during June 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%14%
Russian forces continued gradual tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, consolidating positions but without full control, supporting a steady rise in market confidence for capture by later dates.
ISW reports Russian forces control about 37% of Kostyantynivka with ongoing tactical gains
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%11%
ISW assessed that Russian forces had infiltrated roughly 37% of the city, consolidating tactical gains but without full control. This nuanced report tempered expectations but still supported rising market prices for capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults, maintaining control of Kostyantynivka outskirts
July 31, 2026 plunges to 32%17%
Ukrainian troops successfully defended key positions, preventing Russian capture by the May deadline and causing market prices for near-term capture to decline sharply.
Russian forces make tactical gains but fail to secure Kostyantynivka
August 31, 2026 surges to 76%31%
By the end of June 2026, Russian forces had infiltrated significant parts of Kostyantynivka and made tactical gains but had not secured full control. Ukrainian long-range strikes and counterattacks slowed Russian advances, leading to mixed market reactions with some decline in short-term capture odds.
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%9%
Russian forces achieved slow tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during June, controlling about 37% of the city but facing fierce Ukrainian resistance. This gradual progress supported increased market prices for longer-term capture outcomes.
Russian forces consolidate tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 86%7%
Russian forces made slow tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during June 2026 but were unable to achieve operational breakthroughs, with Ukrainian counterattacks limiting advances. This contributed to a gradual increase in market prices for later capture dates.
Russian forces make tactical gains near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances
September 30, 2026 jumps to 78%12%
By June 30, 2026, Russian forces had made tactical gains in the Kostyantynivka area but did not achieve confirmed advances, with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing. This contributed to mixed market reactions, with some gains in confidence for capture by September 30 and December 31, 2026.
Russian forces expand infiltration zone in Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure
August 31, 2026 surges to 68%23%
In late June 2026, Russian forces expanded their infiltration zone in Kostyantynivka, pushing deeper into the city and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This contributed to rising market confidence in capture by later summer and fall dates.
Russian forces make slow but steady gains near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 77%8%
Russian forces achieved incremental territorial gains in the Kostyantynivka area in late June, though no rapid breakthrough occurred. This maintained market optimism for capture by late 2026 but tempered near-term expectations.
Russian forces make significant advances near Kostyantynivka, increasing market confidence
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%8%
Russian troops advanced to the outskirts and increased pressure on Ukrainian defenders, causing market optimism for medium-term capture dates to rise.
Russian forces attempt pincer movement to capture Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
September 30, 2026 drops to 75%11%
Russian troops tried to encircle Kostyantynivka in a pincer movement but did not make confirmed advances due to Ukrainian counterattacks, causing some market price volatility and a slight decline in near-term capture confidence.
Russian forces intensify infiltration and tactical gains in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%5%
Russian forces infiltrated and advanced into about 37% of Kostyantynivka, achieving most gains in June 2026, signaling slow but steady progress and influencing market prices upward for later capture dates.
Russian forces continue attempts to advance in Kostyantynivka area without confirmed gains
September 30, 2026 drops to 75%6%
By June 30, Russian forces were actively trying to capture Kostyantynivka in a pincer movement but had not made confirmed advances, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
DeepState reports Russian successes around Kostyantynivka in late June
September 30, 2026 jumps to 73%9%
On June 30, DeepState acknowledged Russian successes in the Kostyantynivka area, indicating ongoing pressure and territorial gains. This contributed to market optimism for capture by September 30, 2026.
Putin says Russia has seized 96 % of Kostiantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%33%
Putin publicly claimed that Russian forces had seized 96 % of Kostiantynivka. The exaggerated claim led markets to sharply reduce confidence in a later capture, driving the June‑30 price from 34 % down to 1 % (priceBefore: 34, priceAfter: 1).
Putin claims Russian forces seized 96% of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 88%19%
On June 29, Putin claimed that Russian forces had seized 96% of Kostyantynivka and were clearing the city, signaling a major advance. This claim increased market optimism for capture by September 30, 2026, though fighting continued.
Russian forces advance to Kostyantynivka outskirts amid probing assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
At the end of June, Russian small assault groups probed Kostyantynivka's edges, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders and raising market expectations for eventual capture by later dates.
Russian forces make limited gains in Kostyantynivka but face heavy casualties
July 31, 2026 plunges to 32%17%
By late June, Russian forces made some tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but at great cost and without confirmed major advances. Analysts noted the slow pace and high casualties, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of capture by July 31, 2026.
Putin claims 96 % of Kostyantynivka captured by Russian forces
July 31, 2026 drops to 44%5%
President Putin announced that Russian forces had seized 96 % of Kostyantynivka, a claim that later proved exaggerated. The optimistic statement caused a pull‑back in the July‑31 price, which fell from 49 % to 44 % as analysts questioned the credibility of the claim.
Putin claims Russian forces control 96% of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 86%11%
President Putin stated that Russian forces had seized 96% of Kostyantynivka, reflecting significant territorial control and boosting market confidence in eventual full capture.
Putin claims 96% of Kostyantynivka seized, independent assessments show limited Russian control
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
On June 29, Putin claimed near-total seizure of Kostyantynivka, but ISW and other sources assessed Russian control at about 37%, indicating ongoing fierce fighting and limited territorial gains. This discrepancy caused market skepticism, reflected in price fluctuations and a peak followed by decline in confidence for near-term capture.
Putin claims Russian forces have seized 96% of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
President Putin publicly claimed near-complete control of Kostyantynivka, though independent sources indicated more limited Russian presence, creating a mix of optimism and skepticism in the market.
Ukrainian forces equip armored vehicles with anti-drone protection amid ongoing fighting in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 drops to 47%8%
Ukrainian troops adapted to Russian ambush tactics using drones by equipping vehicles with anti-drone measures, indicating continued fierce urban combat and Russian inability to fully secure the city. This contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Reports indicate Kostyantynivka is falling to Russian forces
December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%7%
Multiple sources reported that Kostyantynivka is falling after prolonged fighting, with Russian forces raising flags in parts of the city. This news solidified market expectations of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Analysts declare Kostyantynivka near fall, Russia's first strategic victory of 2026
September 30, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Analysts noted that after eight months of fighting, Kostyantynivka is on the verge of falling to Russian forces, marking Russia's first strategic victory of the year and a significant milestone in the Donbas campaign.
Analysts predict Kostyantynivka may fall by mid-summer 2026
September 30, 2026 surges to 80%24%
Analysts and observers noted that the battle for Kostyantynivka was nearing its end, with the city potentially falling by mid-summer 2026. This assessment increased market optimism for capture by late summer and beyond, reflected in rising prices for September and December 2026 outcomes.
Analyst states Kostyantynivka battle nearing end; fall possible by mid-summer
September 30, 2026 rises to 81%3%
On June 25, analyst Clément Molin stated that the battle for Kostyantynivka was nearing its end, with the city potentially falling by mid-summer 2026. This assessment supported market confidence in a capture by September 30 or December 31, 2026, sustaining high prices for those outcomes.
Analyst states Kostyantynivka nearing fall, Russia's first strategic victory of 2026
August 31, 2026 surges to 68%23%
Analyst Clément Molin noted the battle for Kostyantynivka could end by mid-summer, marking a significant strategic gain for Russia after months of slow progress. This assessment boosted market prices for capture by late summer and beyond.
Analyst says Kostiantynivka battle nearing its end, fall possible by mid‑summer
September 30, 2026 drops to 77%9%
Euromaidan Press quoted analyst Molin saying the battle was “nearing the end” and that Kostiantynivka could fall by mid‑summer. The comment coincided with a brief rebound in the “September 30 2026” odds (77 % on 29 Jun) as traders reassessed the timeline for a possible capture.
Analyst predicts Kostyantynivka may fall by mid-summer 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 64%8%
An analyst forecasted the fall of Kostyantynivka by mid-summer, marking it as Russia's first strategic victory of the year, which boosted market confidence in capture by September 30, 2026.
Russia Matters notes net loss of territory despite Putin’s Kostyantynivka claim
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%11%
A Russia Matters analysis highlighted a net loss of Russian‑held territory in the previous weeks despite Putin’s claim, further eroding confidence in a near‑term capture and cementing the low “June 30 2026” odds.
Experts and soldiers say Russian claims of rapid progress in Kostyantynivka are exaggerated
July 31, 2026 drops to 44%8%
Despite Russian state media claims of full control over parts of Kostyantynivka, experts and Ukrainian soldiers reported slow, incremental Russian advances and ongoing contested control. This led to market skepticism about imminent capture.
CNN reports worsening situation for Ukrainian troops near Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 29%15%
CNN quoted a Ukrainian press officer describing deteriorating conditions around Kostyantynivka, highlighting increased Russian pressure and contested control. The negative portrayal contributed to the July‑31 price sliding further to 29 % by July 3.
Lavrov says US no longer neutral in Ukraine peace talks
September 30, 2026 surges to 84%21%
Lavrov claimed the United States had ceased being a neutral mediator in Ukraine peace talks, heightening geopolitical tension. The statement coincided with a surge in Russian battlefield pressure and pushed the September‑30 price up sharply (from ~55 % to 84 % on June 13).
Russians penetrate and settle in southeastern Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 jumps to 49%5%
Geolocated footage showed small Russian units settling in the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka. The visible penetration raised short‑term capture concerns, nudging the July‑31 price upward briefly before the subsequent Ukrainian counter‑actions drove it down again.
Russian forces inch closer to capturing Kostyantynivka amid slow advances
September 30, 2026 surges to 79%16%
Reports indicated Russian forces had reached the outskirts and were exerting pressure inside Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian defenders holding but the situation deteriorating. This news increased market confidence for capture by September and December 2026.
CNN: Russia inching forward, claims control of Kostyantynivka’s east
September 30, 2026 jumps to 85%5%
CNN published a story noting that Russian forces were “inching forward” and that TASS claimed control of Kostyantynivka’s eastern part. The report coincided with a 5‑point jump in the September 30 2026 market (from 80 % to 85 %).
Reports indicate Russian forces inching forward in Kostyantynivka amid heavy Ukrainian resistance
August 31, 2026 jumps to 56%11%
Despite Russian claims of progress, Ukrainian units inflicted heavy casualties and held defensive positions, leading to mixed signals and cautious market reactions about the likelihood of capture by summer.
Experts say Russian claims of decisive gains in Kostyantynivka are exaggerated
September 30, 2026 dips to 82%4%
Despite Russian claims of full control over parts of Kostyantynivka, independent experts and Ukrainian soldiers reported slow Russian advances and ongoing Ukrainian resistance, tempering market optimism about imminent capture.
Putin claims Russian troops close to capturing Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 66%15%
On June 23, 2026, Vladimir Putin claimed Russian forces were close to taking control of Kostyantynivka, with the Russian Ministry of Defense reporting advances in the southwestern parts of the city. This announcement increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture, particularly for later dates.
CNN: Russian claims of Kostyantynivka advance are exaggerated
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%11%
CNN reported that independent experts considered Russian claims of progress to be exaggerated and that most of the city remained a contested “gray zone”. The analysis tempered earlier optimism, reinforcing the sharp decline in the “June 30 2026” probability.
Analysts Warn Kostyantynivka Could Fall by End of Summer
September 30, 2026 dips to 82%4%
Military analysts and state media reports highlighted that Russian forces had gained partial control of eastern Kostyantynivka, leading observers to warn the city could fall by late summer.
Russian forces infiltrate Kostyantynivka and approach outskirts amid ongoing urban fighting
September 30, 2026 surges to 81%15%
Russian troops infiltrated parts of Kostyantynivka and advanced to its outskirts, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders and raising market confidence in eventual capture by late 2026.
Putin claims Russian forces close to capturing Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
September 30, 2026 surges to 88%24%
Putin publicly stated Russian troops were near full control of Kostyantynivka, boosting market optimism despite ongoing contested fighting and Ukrainian resistance.
Kyiv Independent analysis highlights Russian breakthrough and urban battle in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 79%29%
An in-depth report described Russian forces breaking into Kostyantynivka and steadily overrunning urban areas, marking a significant phase in the battle for Donbas. The analysis emphasized the strategic importance of the city and the challenges faced by Ukrainian defenders amid drone warfare and infiltration tactics.
Experts note deteriorating situation in Kostyantynivka amid Russian advances
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%11%
Analysts and Ukrainian officials reported worsening conditions and increased Russian pressure in Kostyantynivka, reinforcing expectations of eventual Russian capture and driving market prices higher for later capture dates.
Putin claims Russian forces are practically reaching Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 81%25%
Russian President Putin claimed on June 23 that Russian forces were advancing on all fronts and practically reaching Kostyantynivka, dismissing Ukrainian statements of contested control. This claim boosted market confidence in a near-term capture despite ongoing fighting.
Russian forces break into Kostyantynivka, opening battle for Donbas fortress belt
September 30, 2026 surges to 83%20%
Russian forces made tactical advances into Kostyantynivka, marking the start of intense urban fighting and increasing the likelihood of eventual capture, which pushed market prices higher for mid and late 2026 capture dates.
Russian Forces Break Into Kostiantynivka, Opening Battle for Donbas Fortress Belt
July 31, 2026 dips to 68%1%
Reports emerged that Russian forces successfully broke into the city of Kostiantynivka, overrunning urban areas and threatening the backbone of Ukraine's defense in the region.
Putin says Russian forces are close to taking Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 34%15%
President Putin publicly declared that Russian troops were “practically reaching” Kostyantynivka, while the MoD reiterated advances in the city’s southwestern part. The high‑profile statement caused a sharp drop in the “July 31 2026” odds, which fell from ~49 % to the mid‑30s by 1 July.
Putin says Russian troops are close to capturing Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%11%
President Putin publicly claimed that Russian forces were “close to taking control of Kostyantynivka”. The statement was viewed as premature, causing market participants to reassess the odds downwards; the “June 30 2026” line plunged from the low‑70s to single‑digit levels within days.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka city center, Ukrainian commanders warn of possible fall
September 30, 2026 surges to 79%29%
Reports confirmed over 100 Russian soldiers had infiltrated Kostyantynivka's city center, with Ukrainian commanders warning that losing the city by the end of summer was realistic. The city was described as a 'grey zone' with neither side fully controlling it, indicating intense urban combat.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka's southeast; city remains contested
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%14%
Ukrainian sources and soldiers reported Russian infantry advancing into southeastern Kostyantynivka with intense fighting and drone strikes slowing progress, confirming the city as a contested 'gray zone' rather than fully captured, affecting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka amid ongoing efforts to encircle city
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On June 22, 2026, Russian troops infiltrated Kostyantynivka and increased airstrikes, intensifying efforts to encircle the city. Ukrainian commanders acknowledged the serious situation but maintained control. This news reinforced market expectations of a protracted battle with eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian soldiers report serious but manageable situation in Kostyantynivka amid Russian advances
July 31, 2026 drops to 44%10%
Ukrainian servicemembers described the situation as serious but not catastrophic, with slow Russian advances under heavy drone strikes. This tempered market optimism for very near-term capture, reflected in price adjustments.
Russian forces enter Kostyantynivka, fierce urban fighting continues
July 31, 2026 plunges to 6%43%
Russian troops entered Kostyantynivka, triggering intense urban combat with Ukrainian forces denying encirclement, leading to ongoing contested control and market uncertainty about near-term capture.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka; fierce urban fighting continues
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%11%
On June 22, Russian troops were reported inside Kostyantynivka with ongoing street-by-street clashes. Ukrainian commanders denied encirclement but acknowledged serious fighting. Market prices peaked for December 31 and September 30 outcomes, reflecting increased likelihood of eventual capture.
Reuters: Street‑by‑street clashes reshape control in Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 drops to 69%5%
International news outlets reported street‑by‑street clashes inside Kostyantynivka, describing the fight as “intense” and “urban”. The coverage added uncertainty, nudging the “July 31 2026” odds down slightly after a brief peak earlier in the week.
Russian forces enter Kostyantynivka amid fierce urban fighting
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Russian troops entered Kostyantynivka, triggering intense street-by-street clashes and raising concerns about supply lines. Ukrainian commanders denied encirclement, indicating ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka, threatening to encircle city
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%6%
Reports indicated Russian forces infiltrated Kostyantynivka from multiple directions, raising concerns about encirclement and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders. This contributed to a market rise in the likelihood of capture by September 30, 2026.
Russian forces enter Kostyantynivka, fierce urban fighting continues
September 30, 2026 surges to 69%16%
Russian troops entered Kostyantynivka, triggering intense street-by-street clashes and raising concerns about supply lines and strategic shifts in Donbas. This escalation increased market expectations for a Russian capture later in the year.
BBC: Russian troops infiltrate Kostiantynivka, city remains contested grey zone
July 31, 2026 rises to 47%2%
BBC reported Ukrainian soldiers describing Russian forces advancing into the city from the south and reaching the northern outskirts, but also noting the battle remained a “grey zone”. The mixed assessment increased uncertainty, causing the July‑31 price to fall further from 45 % to 47 % (priceAfter: 47, priceBefore: 45).
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka, creating a contested 'grey zone'
September 30, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Russian forces infiltrated the city, leading to a situation where neither side fully controlled Kostyantynivka, raising concerns about encirclement and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Kostyantynivka Enters Grey Zone as Russian Troops Infiltrate Strategic City
The strategic city of Kostyantynivka entered a grey zone with no single military force in overall control as Russian troops advanced from multiple directions to cut supply lines.
Russian forces enter Kostyantynivka, fierce urban fighting continues
August 31, 2026 surges to 60%15%
Russian troops entered Kostyantynivka, triggering intense urban combat and raising concerns about supply lines, but Ukrainian forces denied encirclement, reflecting ongoing contested control.
ISW assesses Russian forces making tactical gains but unlikely to achieve rapid breakthrough in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
By June 22, 2026, ISW assessed that Russian forces continue making tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but are unlikely to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough against the Fortress Belt. Ukrainian forces remain resilient, and Russian advances come at high cost, leading to mixed market signals with rising long-term capture probabilities but uncertainty on near-term outcomes.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka and attempt to surround the city
September 30, 2026 jumps to 73%14%
Russian troops infiltrated the strategic city and were trying to surround it, with Ukrainian commanders acknowledging the serious threat and the fall of the city being a matter of time. This news increased market confidence in capture by later dates.
Russian forces infiltrate Kostyantynivka amid fierce urban fighting, Ukrainian commanders deny encirclement
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%8%
On June 22, reports confirmed Russian troops had entered Kostyantynivka, triggering intense street-by-street clashes. Ukrainian commanders denied encirclement claims but acknowledged Russian presence inside the city, highlighting a contested and volatile frontline. This increased market confidence in Russian capture by later dates.
Ukrainian soldiers report serious but controlled situation in Kostyantynivka amid Russian advances
September 30, 2026 jumps to 89%5%
Ukrainian servicemembers operating in Kostyantynivka acknowledged serious fighting and Russian infantry advancing from multiple directions but maintained that the situation was not catastrophic. This tempered overly optimistic Russian claims and influenced market perceptions of the battle's pace.
Russian troops infiltrate Kostyantynivka, creating a contested 'grey zone'
August 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
Russian troops infiltrated the city, making control ambiguous and intensifying fighting. Ukrainian sources described the city as a 'grey zone' with neither side fully controlling it, increasing uncertainty about the timeline for capture.
ISW highlights Russian use of AI videos to exaggerate gains in Kostyantynivka
ISW reported that Russian Ministry of Defense published likely AI-generated videos claiming Russian control in Kostyantynivka, part of an information operation to mislead audiences and inflate perceived Russian successes, undermining market trust in Russian claims.
DeepState says Kostyantynivka now a ‘grey zone’ as Russian forces infiltrate further
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%10%
DeepState warned that Russian forces were deepening infiltration in northern and north‑western Kostyantynivka, stating the city was a “grey zone”. The warning coincided with a modest decline in the “June 30 2026” probability as the market reassessed how far Russian gains had proceeded.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing heavy fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%10%
By late June, Russian forces continued gradual advances in Kostyantynivka, with reports of infiltration and consolidation of positions, but Ukrainian counterattacks persisted. The fighting remained intense, with no decisive control change, reflecting in mixed market movements.
Russian forces continue infiltration missions and limited advances near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%5%
Russian troops conducted infiltration missions and made limited tactical gains around Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces repelled major assaults, maintaining a volatile frontline and preventing Russian operational breakthrough.
Ukrainian military observer warns Kostyantynivka may fall by end of summer 2026
A Ukrainian military observer warned that Russian forces may capture Kostyantynivka by the end of summer 2026, reflecting growing concern over deteriorating Ukrainian defense and influencing market prices upward for later capture dates.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
September 30, 2026 drops to 68%9%
Despite ongoing offensive operations and infiltration missions, Russian forces did not make confirmed advances on June 21, reflecting a stalemate and continued Ukrainian resistance, which contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian Troops Infiltrate Kostyantynivka and Attempt Flanking Maneuvers
July 31, 2026 jumps to 68%14%
Reports emerged that Russian forces had successfully infiltrated the strategic city of Kostyantynivka and were attempting to surround it, causing a sharp spike in near-term capture odds.
Russian offensive operations continue near Kostyantynivka but without confirmed advances
August 31, 2026 jumps to 53%8%
On June 21, 2026, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure with infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka but failed to make confirmed territorial gains, reflecting ongoing contested control and limiting market optimism for near-term capture.
Russian forces consolidate positions deeper in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban fighting
September 30, 2026 jumps to 89%9%
By late June, Russian forces were consolidating control over parts of Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces holding some southern areas, indicating slow but steady Russian advances and increasing market confidence.
Russian forces deepen infiltration and consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 83%14%
Russian troops continued infiltration missions deeper into Kostyantynivka, consolidating some positions while Ukrainian forces remained interspersed. This reinforced market expectations of a gradual Russian capture by late summer or fall.
Russian forces expand infiltration and advances in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
ISW updated assessments showing increased Russian infiltration into northern, northwestern, and western parts of Kostyantynivka, indicating shrinking Ukrainian organized defense in some areas. This contributed to rising market confidence in Russian capture by later dates.
Russian forces continue infiltration and consolidation in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 87%6%
Russian troops deepened infiltration into Kostyantynivka, consolidating positions while Ukrainian forces remained interspersed, indicating slow but steady Russian tactical gains without full control.
Russian forces infiltrate deeper into Kostyantynivka, consolidating positions
September 30, 2026 jumps to 78%9%
By June 20, ISW reported Russian forces infiltrating further into northern and western Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian organized defense weakening in some sectors. This tactical progress increased market confidence in a capture by September 30, reflected in rising prices.
ISW: Russian infiltration in Kostiantynivka deepens but no confirmed breakthroughs
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%15%
ISW’s 20 June assessment noted continued Russian infiltration but no confirmed breakthroughs, while Ukrainian sources warned the advance was limited to 100 m per day. The mixed picture reinforced doubts about a swift capture, pushing the “June 30 2026” contract to its lowest level (6 %).
Russian forces infiltrate deeper into Kostyantynivka, consolidating positions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%12%
In mid-June 2026, Russian forces infiltrated further into northern, northwestern, and western Kostyantynivka, consolidating some positions while Ukrainian organized defense weakened in southern and eastern areas. This intensified fighting and partial Russian control increased market confidence in eventual capture by late 2026.
Zelenskyy and Putin reject cease‑fire, say conflict will continue
December 31, 2026 jumps to 84%7%
Both leaders publicly rejected any cease‑fire talks, reinforcing the view that fighting would continue. The December 31 market jumped from 77 % to 84 % after the statements, reflecting higher confidence in a late‑2026 Russian capture.
Russian forces deepen infiltration and consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%2%
Russian forces expanded infiltration areas and advanced in northern, northwestern, and western parts of Kostyantynivka, consolidating some positions while Ukrainian forces remained in parts of the city. This sustained pressure supported rising market prices for capture by year-end.
Russian forces deepen infiltration and consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 86%6%
Russian troops expanded infiltration into northern, northwestern, and western Kostyantynivka, consolidating positions while Ukrainian forces remained in some southern parts. This increased market confidence for capture by September and December 2026.
Russian forces continue infiltration and tactical advances in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%4%
In mid-June 2026, Russian forces continued infiltration missions and tactical advances in Kostyantynivka, with reports of Russian personnel spread across the city but without consolidated control. This ongoing fighting and partial gains increased market confidence for capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian servicemembers raise flags in central Kostyantynivka after infiltration mission
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Geolocated footage on June 18 showed Russian servicemembers raising flags in central Kostyantynivka following infiltration missions, indicating some tactical gains but not full control. This contributed to rising market confidence in a capture by late 2026.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission into western Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%12%
Russian servicemembers were observed operating in western Kostyantynivka after infiltration missions, indicating slow but persistent Russian tactical gains in the city, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces make significant tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during June offensive
September 30, 2026 surges to 86%15%
Russian forces achieved over three-quarters of their June gains in Kostyantynivka, infiltrating about 37% of the city and consolidating positions, which sharply increased market confidence for capture by September 30, 2026.
Russian forces raise flags in central Kostyantynivka after infiltration mission
July 31, 2026 surges to 69%20%
On June 18, 2026, geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers raising flags in central Kostyantynivka following infiltration operations, signaling tactical advances but not full control, supporting market price increases for mid-2026 capture dates.
Ukrainian drone attacks cause major fuel shortages in Crimea and Russia
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and supply routes caused significant fuel shortages, impacting Russian logistics and potentially slowing their offensive in Kostyantynivka. This contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
DeepState warns of slow Pokrovsk-style siege of Kostyantynivka as Russian forces infiltrate and threaten logistics
September 30, 2026 surges to 86%36%
On June 18, 2026, Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState reported that Russian troops are infiltrating Kostyantynivka from multiple directions, threatening supply routes in a siege strategy similar to the earlier battle for Pokrovsk. This indicated a protracted battle with gradual Russian gains, influencing market expectations for a summer capture.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Kostyantynivka amid information operations
July 31, 2026 drops to 44%5%
Russian MoD claimed seizure of Kostyantynivka and rapid advances, but evidence suggested these were AI-generated and part of disinformation. This caused market volatility and skepticism about near-term capture.
Russia Uses AI-Generated Flag-Raising Videos to Claim Success in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 dips to 80%4%
The ISW reported that Russia is conducting sophisticated information operations using likely AI-generated footage of flag raisings to fabricate claims of capturing Kostyantynivka.
Russian MoD posts AI‑generated flag footage claiming Kostyantynivka gains
July 31, 2026 dips to 47%2%
The MoD released AI‑generated flag‑raising videos claiming Russian control of Kostyantynivka’s outskirts. Analysts flagged the footage as likely fabricated, prompting a brief pull‑back in confidence for the July 31 2026 outcome (price fell to 47 % on 5 July, –2 pts).
Russian officials claim imminent loss of Kostyantynivka by Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%9%
Russian Ministry of Defense and separatist leaders claimed Ukraine was preparing for the imminent loss of Kostyantynivka, signaling Russian confidence in their offensive progress and influencing market optimism for capture by year-end.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims imminent loss of Kostyantynivka by Ukraine
December 31, 2026 surges to 91%17%
On June 14-15, the Russian MoD claimed Ukraine was preparing for imminent loss of Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, attempting to frame the situation as rapidly deteriorating in Russia's favor. This propaganda effort influenced market perceptions, temporarily boosting confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russia’s MoD releases AI‑generated flag‑raising footage from Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
The MoD released AI‑generated footage claiming Russian flags raised on Kostyantynivka’s outskirts and a seizure of Dovha Balka. The market responded positively, pushing the December‑31 price to a peak of 94 % on June 19, as traders treated the claim as evidence of rapid progress.
Russian MoD claims imminent loss of Kostyantynivka by Ukraine amid contested control
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed imminent capture of Kostyantynivka, supported by flag-raising videos later suspected to be AI-generated, causing market uncertainty but overall increased confidence in capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue offensive operations in Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
September 30, 2026 jumps to 77%8%
ISW reported ongoing Russian offensive operations and infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka with limited territorial gains and high casualties, alongside Russian information campaigns exaggerating control, leading to mixed market reactions.
Russia’s MoD claims capture of Dovha Balka near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%11%
The Russian MoD announced the seizure of the suburb Dovha Balka on 15 June, accompanied by flag‑raising videos later judged likely AI‑generated. The claim suggested a breakthrough, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds up sharply to a peak of 93 % on 20 June.
Russia posts AI‑generated flag‑raising video claiming capture of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 jumps to 54%5%
The Russian MoD released AI‑generated footage of flag‑raising in Kostyantynivka and claimed the city had been seized. The dramatic visual claim sparked a short‑term surge in optimism, lifting the “July 31 2026” odds before the market corrected for the likely exaggeration.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Dovha Balka near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Russian MoD claimed control of Dovha Balka, a strategic area near Kostyantynivka, and increased information operations about imminent capture, boosting market optimism about Russian advances.
Russian forces use AI-generated footage to claim capture of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 89%7%
On June 15, Russian forces published AI-generated videos showing flag raisings in Kostyantynivka to fabricate claims of tactical success. Ukrainian commanders reported these as information operations, impacting market perceptions of the actual situation.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Kostyantynivka amid suspected AI-generated propaganda
June 30, 2026 dips to 48%4%
Russian MoD claimed control over Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, supported by videos of flag raisings suspected to be AI-generated. Ukrainian commanders denied full Russian control, indicating ongoing contested fighting. This disinformation campaign created uncertainty and affected market confidence in near-term capture.
Russian MoD claims seizure of Dovha Balka near Kostyantynivka amid information operations
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%6%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of Dovha Balka and published flag-raising videos, likely AI-generated, as part of information operations to exaggerate progress. This caused mixed market reactions due to uncertainty about actual control.
Russia MoD posts AI‑generated flag‑raising videos near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 86%36%
The MoD released AI‑generated video of Russian flags raised in Dovha Balka and around Kostyantynivka, claiming a rapid advance. ISW flagged the footage as likely fabricated but noted the propaganda was boosting market expectations of a September capture, pushing the September‑30 contract from 50 % to 86 % by 23 June.
Russian MoD claims flag‑raising in Dovha Balka, later flagged as AI‑fabricated
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%40%
The Russian MoD released footage of flag‑raising in the western outskirts of Kostyantynivka, which ISW later judged to be AI‑generated. The claim of a “seize” of Dovha Balka and the town sparked a sudden 20‑point jump in the “June 30 2026” probability, reflecting market belief that a capture was imminent.
Russia’s MoD posts AI‑generated footage of flag‑raising in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 90%40%
The Russian MoD, echoed by DNR head Denis Pushilin, released AI‑generated video showing Russian flags on the western outskirts of Kostyantynivka and claimed the town had been seized. The dramatic visual claim prompted a rapid market swing, lifting the “September 30, 2026” probability from 50 % to 90 % between 4 May and 19 Jun.
MoD says Ukraine preparing for imminent loss of Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 66%17%
The MoD and DNR officials claimed that Ukraine was preparing for an “imminent” loss of Kostyantynivka, Duvzhkivka and Kramatorsk. The aggressive messaging lifted the market’s perception of a near‑term capture, nudging the July‑31 and September‑30 contracts upward over the next week.
Russian ministry posts flag‑raising videos alleging entry into Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 jumps to 60%11%
The MoD and milbloggers released AI‑generated flag‑raising videos claiming Russian forces had entered Kostyantynivka. The apparent breakthrough lifted the July 31 market from 49 % to 60 % the same day.
Russian MoD claims imminent loss of Kostyantynivka and surrounding cities
September 30, 2026 surges to 81%16%
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed rapid advances in Kostyantynivka and imminent Ukrainian loss of the city and nearby areas, fueling market optimism about a near-term Russian capture despite ongoing contested fighting.
Russia’s MoD says Ukraine is preparing for imminent loss of Kostiantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%55%
The Russian MoD and DPR leader Pushilin publicly claimed that Ukraine was preparing for the “imminent” loss of Kostiantynivka on 14‑15 June. The bold claim spooked the market, causing the “June 30 2026” probability to plunge from 61 % (19 Jun) to 35 % (1 May) and ultimately to 6 % by 28 Jun as traders reassessed the likelihood of a capture by the end of June.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims imminent loss of Kostyantynivka by Ukraine
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
Russian MoD claimed rapid advances and imminent capture of Kostyantynivka and surrounding cities, using AI-generated footage to exaggerate gains. This disinformation campaign aimed to influence perceptions, causing market volatility and increased prices for later capture dates.
Urban fighting continues in Kostyantynivka with Russian tactical gains but no decisive control
September 30, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
Fierce urban combat persisted with Russian forces making slow tactical advances inside Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian troops maintained control over key areas, sustaining a contested frontline and uncertainty in the market.
Russian MoD and DNR head warn of imminent loss of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%8%
The MoD and DNR head claimed an imminent loss of Kostyantynivka, a high‑profile propaganda push that coincided with a sudden 8‑point surge in the December‑31 market probability.
ISW: Ukraine thwarts Russian spring‑summer offensive
September 30, 2026 drops to 79%5%
The ISW’s mid‑June assessment highlighted that Ukrainian forces had successfully blunted Russian offensive momentum, labeling the campaign as “thwarted.” This assessment lowered confidence in a rapid capture, causing the September‑30 price to fall from its June‑13 peak of 84 % back toward the high‑70 % range by late June.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims advances in Kostyantynivka, exaggerating control
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed significant advances and building seizures in Kostyantynivka, part of an information campaign to aggrandize tactical progress, influencing market perceptions of Russian gains.
Russia’s defence ministry says 172 buildings taken in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 80%5%
The MoD claimed Russian units seized 172 buildings in Kostyantynivka on June 12‑13, a unusually detailed claim that appeared to be an information push. The market reacted with a modest rise in the “September 30 2026” probability to 80 % on 2026‑06‑13.
Ukrainian servicemember confirms Russian consolidation west of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
A Ukrainian servicemember told Hromadske that Russian troops were moving through Berestok to Illinivka before infiltrating Kostyantynivka, confirming Russian consolidation between those villages. The clarification of Russian footholds spurred a short‑term rally in the market, reflected in the June‑23 price jump for the December‑31 contract (+6 pts).
Russia Day broadcast shows Russian troops deep in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
On Russia Day (June 12) the Kremlin broadcast footage of Russian troops operating inside Kostyantynivka and announced that the city was “no longer infiltration”. The publicised consolidation of positions raised hopes that a capture was imminent, lifting odds for all later‑dated contracts, especially the December‑31 market which climbed to 93 % by 23 June.
Russia consolidates gains in Kostyantynivka, shifts to light transport
ISW reported that Russian forces had consolidated positions inside the city and were now relying on light transport, suggesting a slower, but more permanent, presence. The market’s odds for the December 31, 2026 outcome stayed high, confirming the upward swing seen earlier in the week.
Russian forces consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban fighting
Despite heavy fighting and high casualties, Russian troops consolidated some tactical positions within Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian defense remained resilient. This prolonged battle influenced market expectations, reducing likelihood of capture by June 30, 2026.
Russian forces consolidate tactical positions within Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Russian forces continued making tactical gains and likely consolidated some positions within Kostyantynivka beyond infiltration, signaling a slow but steady advance. This contributed to rising market prices for capture by September 30, 2026.
Russian forces consolidate tactical positions within Kostyantynivka city
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%8%
By mid-June, Russian forces had consolidated some tactical positions within Kostyantynivka beyond mere infiltration, indicating deeper urban fighting and incremental territorial control, supporting market price increases for capture by year-end.
Russian forces consolidate positions and continue infiltration in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 83%19%
Russian forces continued infiltration and consolidation of positions within Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian defense deteriorating in some sectors. This increased market confidence for capture by late summer and early fall 2026.
Russian forces control over half of Kostyantynivka city amid ongoing battle
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%10%
By June 12, Russian forces reportedly controlled over half of Kostyantynivka, marking significant tactical progress but still facing strong Ukrainian resistance, which maintained uncertainty about full capture by year-end.
Over 100 Russian Troops Breach Kostyantynivka Center
September 30, 2026 jumps to 84%11%
Ukrainian commanders confirmed that Russian forces successfully infiltrated the city center of Kostyantynivka, establishing resistance and threatening a fall of the city by the end of summer.
Russian information operations exaggerate presence in Kostyantynivka amid slow tactical gains
September 30, 2026 rises to 70%4%
On June 12, Russian sources released AI-generated footage claiming Russian tactical successes in Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian officials reported only limited Russian infiltration. Russian forces continued slow, costly advances, tempering expectations of rapid capture.
Russian forces continue tactical gains but face high casualties in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%8%
Russian forces continued making tactical gains and consolidating positions within Kostyantynivka in June 2026, but at a high cost and without a rapid operational breakthrough. Market prices surged for capture by December 31, 2026, reflecting increased likelihood but recognition of ongoing challenges.
ISW notes Russian consolidation of positions inside Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 57%2%
A follow‑up ISW assessment said Russian forces were consolidating positions inside the city and that infiltration depth had increased, suggesting a continued forward push. This reinforced the market’s belief that Russia could capture Kostyantynivka before year‑end, moving the “September 30 2026” line upward.
Russian Forces Consolidate Positions Inside Kostyantynivka Beyond Infiltration
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
ISW reported that Russian forces continued to make tactical gains and likely consolidated some positions within the city, though at a high cost in casualties.
Russian outlets publish geolocated footage of troops inside Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 82%8%
Footage released on 11–12 June showing Russian troops operating in multiple districts of Kostyantynivka was identified by ISW as a cognitive‑warfare effort. The visual proof of a Russian presence boosted confidence in a September‑2026 capture, pushing the market from 74 % to 82 % on 14 June.
ISW says Russian forces have consolidated positions inside Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%13%
ISW’s June 12 offensive‑campaign assessment reported that Russian forces had consolidated tactical positions inside Kostyantynivka and were no longer merely infiltrating, citing geolocated footage and statements from Ukrainian officials. The assessment that Russian gains were solidified caused the market’s “December 31 2026” probability to rise sharply from the low‑70 % range to over 90 % by mid‑June.
Russian forces make tactical gains and consolidate positions in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 59%9%
Russian forces intensified offensive operations and infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka, consolidating some tactical positions beyond infiltration, though progress was slow and costly. This increased market confidence in Russia capturing the city by later dates.
Ukrainian army says Russian troops still only on Kostyantynivka approaches
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%5%
Ukrainian General Syrskyi reported on 12 June that Russian forces were still only on the approaches to Kostyantynivka, with no firm control inside the city. This defensive assessment slowed the “December 31, 2026” rally briefly, but the subsequent ISW follow‑up on 18 June showing flag‑raising in the city revived optimism, explaining the final jump to 93 %.
ISW confirms Russian tactical gains but notes high casualties and limited operational success
September 30, 2026 surges to 79%29%
ISW analysis indicated that while Russian forces continued to make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, they were unlikely to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough due to heavy casualties and strong Ukrainian resistance. The battle remained costly and contested.
Russian Forces Raise Flags in Kostiantynivka After Breaking Ukrainian Lines
September 30, 2026 jumps to 82%7%
Russian forces achieved a major tactical breakthrough in the western part of the city, raising flags and forcing the retreat of remnants of Ukrainian brigades.
Russian forces raise flags in western Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration and fighting
On June 11, 2026, Russian forces released footage showing flag raisings in western parts of Kostyantynivka, indicating infiltration and partial tactical gains. Ukrainian forces counterattacked and contested these claims, leading to market uncertainty and volatility in capture probabilities.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of eastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban combat
September 30, 2026 jumps to 84%7%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the entire eastern part of Kostyantynivka after fierce street fighting, marking a significant tactical success but with Ukrainian resistance persisting in other city areas, reflecting a contested frontline.
Russian forces raise flags in Kostyantynivka indicating partial control
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%10%
On June 11, reports and footage showed Russian forces raising flags in parts of Kostyantynivka, indicating partial control and a collapse of organized Ukrainian defense in some city areas, boosting market confidence in eventual Russian capture by end of year.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 77%13%
By June 10, Russian forces had increased activity and made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, though full control remained elusive, supporting a rise in market confidence for later capture dates.
Russian tactical groups make advances south and east of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 75%13%
Two Russian tactical groups advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking slow but steady territorial gains. These advances increased market confidence in Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by later dates, reflecting ongoing offensive pressure despite high casualties.
Russia Shifts Main Donetsk Offensive Effort to Seizing Kostyantynivka
Following stalled advances near Slovyansk, the Russian military command officially reprioritized and shifted its main spring-summer offensive effort to capturing Kostyantynivka.
Russian tactical groups make gains in eastern Kostyantynivka during spring-summer offensive
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
Two Russian tactical groups advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking slow but steady progress and supporting market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russia shifts main offensive to Kostyantynivka after stalled Slovyansk push
September 30, 2026 jumps to 78%8%
By June 10, 2026, Russian forces shifted their main offensive effort to Kostyantynivka after failing to make significant gains near Slovyansk. Tactical breakthroughs in the city's western-central part were reported, but the Russian deadline to capture the city by May was missed, reflecting ongoing heavy fighting.
Russia shifts main offensive to Kostyantynivka after stalled Slovyansk push
September 30, 2026 jumps to 84%14%
After failing to advance significantly near Slovyansk, Russian command shifted its main effort to Kostyantynivka, making tactical gains but still facing strong Ukrainian resistance. This shift increased market confidence in a capture by late 2026, especially by September 30.
Russian tactical gains in Kostyantynivka reported, infiltration deepens
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
On June 10, reports confirmed Russian tactical gains and infiltration into eastern Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces in semi-encirclement. This increased market confidence in a capture by late summer or early fall, boosting prices for September 30 and December 31 outcomes.
ISW: Russia makes tactical gains in eastern Kostyantynivka, enters Novodmytrivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
ISW reported that Russian forces entered the village of Novodmytrivka, creating a semi‑encirclement of Ukrainian troops. This concrete tactical gain spurred a rapid rise in the “September 30 2026” probability from the mid‑60s to 69 % by 1 July.
Russia shifts Donetsk offensive to Kostyantynivka after Slovyansk stall, says ISW
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%7%
United24 reported ISW’s June 10 assessment that Russia had shifted its main offensive effort to Kostyantynivka after the Slovyansk push stalled. The analysis reinforced the narrative of a focused push, contributing to the final surge in the “December 31 2026” probability to 91 % on 2026‑06‑15.
ISW: Russian Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk groups enter eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%4%
ISW reported that two Russian tactical groups (Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk) had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, a concrete gain that lifted confidence in a capture by year‑end, pushing the December‑31 odds up sharply.
Russia missed May deadline but replenished 80 % of attacking units, ISW says
September 30, 2026 jumps to 80%6%
United24 reported that Russia missed its May deadline but had replenished 80 % of its attacking units and redeployed the 70th Motorised Rifle Division. The story underscored that a capture was still plausible later in 2026, lifting the September market from 74 % to 80 % on 16 June.
Observer says Kostiantynivka may fall by end of summer 2026
An observer quoted by Euromaidan Press warned that Russia could capture Kostiantynivka by the end of summer 2026, echoing earlier ISW warnings. This commentary revived capture expectations, nudging the September 30, 2026 probability upward in the final days of the analysis window.
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but fail to seize city by May deadline
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
Russian forces intensified offensive operations and made tactical advances into eastern Kostyantynivka, yet failed to capture the city by the May 2026 deadline set by their military command. This highlighted the difficulty of the operation and tempered expectations for a rapid Russian victory, impacting market prices for near-term capture.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian positions in western Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%4%
A later ISW June 10 update highlighted renewed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions in western Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the view that Russia was unlikely to capture the city by year‑end. The market for the December‑31 outcome rose modestly from 79 % to 83 % as traders reassessed the timeline.
Ukrainian brigade says Russian forces entered Novodmytrivka east of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 71%9%
A Ukrainian commander said Russian forces had entered the village of Novodmytrivka east of the city, indicating a foothold that boosted market confidence for a September‑30 capture.
Observer says Kostyantynivka could fall by end of summer 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 77%6%
An observer warned that Russia may capture Kostyantynivka by the end of summer 2026; the comment reinforced rising market odds for the September‑30 deadline.
Russian tactical groups advance into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking main effort of 2026 offensive
July 31, 2026 surges to 73%24%
On June 10, 2026, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that two Russian tactical groups, 'Bakhmut' and 'Dzerzhinsk', advanced south of and into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the main effort of Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive. This tactical progress increased market confidence in a summer capture but full control remained elusive.
Urban fighting continues in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 78%3%
Reports from June 10 indicated intense urban combat in Kostyantynivka with Russian forces making slow tactical gains but facing strong Ukrainian resistance. This sustained fighting suggested a protracted battle, influencing market expectations for capture timelines.
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka amid spring offensive
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%9%
Russian tactical groups advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking intensified efforts in the spring-summer 2026 offensive. This increased market confidence in eventual capture by December 31, 2026.
ISW says Russia missed May deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%39%
ISW reported that Russia had failed to meet its self‑imposed May‑2026 deadline to capture Kostyantynivka despite intensified offensives in March and a platoon‑size assault. The assessment highlighted Russian unit replenishment but also heavy casualties, signalling a short‑term setback for Russian ambitions. Traders interpreted the missed deadline as a sharp reduction in the probability of capture by mid‑year, driving the June‑30 market contract from 61 % to 22 % in the following weeks.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid Russian strikes
September 30, 2026 jumps to 66%13%
By June 9-10, Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area while Russian forces launched large-scale drone and missile strikes. This ongoing fighting and Ukrainian pressure affected market confidence in the timing of Russian capture.
Russian forces settle in southeastern Kostyantynivka but face strong Ukrainian resistance
September 30, 2026 jumps to 77%7%
Russian troops established positions in the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka, indicating tactical gains, but Ukrainian forces maintained control over much of the city amid intense fighting and drone interdiction, limiting Russian operational progress and influencing market prices.
ISW says Russian troops make tactical gains in eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%7%
ISW reported that Russian forces had made tactical gains in the eastern part of Kostyantynivka and that two Russian tactical groups (the “Bakhmut” and “Dzerzhinsk” groups) had pushed into the city. The assessment that Moscow was finally breaching the western‑central sector drove market participants to raise the probability of a capture by the end‑year, pushing the “December 31, 2026” outcome from 86 % on 10 Feb to 93 % on 19 Jun.
Observer warns Kostyantynivka may fall by end‑summer 2026
September 30, 2026 surges to 84%22%
Ukrainian military observer Denys Popovych warned that Kostyantynivka could fall by the end of summer 2026, echoing ISW’s assessment of a tactical breakthrough. The warning drove the “September 30, 2026” probability up to a peak of 84 % on 13 June and lifted the “December 31, 2026” probability to 92 % on 16 June.
Russian forces continue tactical gains and infiltration in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%8%
Russian troops made further tactical gains and expanded infiltration areas in Kostyantynivka in June 2026, consolidating positions amid ongoing urban combat, increasing market confidence in eventual capture.
ISW reports Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, enter Novodmytrivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%12%
ISW reported Russian forces making new tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, including entry into the village of Novodmytrivka. The news lifted the December 31 market from 80 % to 92 % by June 22.
Ukrainian brigade says Russians entered Novodmytrivka, semi‑encircling Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%8%
Ukrainian commander reported Russian forces entering the village of Novodmytrivka, creating a semi‑encirclement of Kostyantynivka. This tangible advance boosted the December 31 2026 probability, contributing to the jump from 80 % on 8 Jun to 88 % on 12 Jun (+8 pts).
Russian forces intensify offensive operations in Kostyantynivka but fail to seize city by May deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 80%2%
Russian forces significantly increased attacks on Kostyantynivka in early 2026 aiming to capture it by May, but despite tactical gains and infiltration, they failed to seize the city, maintaining a stalemate that kept market prices moderate.
Ukrainian observer warns Russia could take Kostiantynivka by end of summer
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%2%
A Ukrainian observer warned that Russia might capture Kostiantynivka by the end of summer 2026. The forecast of a summer capture nudged the December‑31 price slightly lower from 85 % to 83 % (priceBefore: 85, priceAfter: 83).
ISW says Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka after missing May deadline
December 31, 2026 jumps to 83%5%
ISW reported that Russian forces had made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka after a failed May deadline, noting increased Russian reinforcements and a platoon‑size assault. The assessment that Russia was finally advancing drove the market’s steep rise for the December 31 2026 outcome (+5 pts on 12 Jun, from 78 % to 83 %).
Russian tactical groups enter eastern Kostyantynivka, ISW confirms
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%7%
Mashovets reported that two Russian tactical groups had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed infiltration since March. This prompted a sharp rise in the December‑31 price from 85 % to 92 % by mid‑June as the market saw a higher chance of a late‑year capture.
Urban fighting continues fiercely in Kostyantynivka amid slow Russian advance
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Reports from June indicated ongoing intense urban combat with Russian forces making slow progress, maintaining uncertainty about control. This contributed to mixed market signals with some short-term capture probabilities declining.
ISW reports Russian tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, main effort for 2026 offensive
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%8%
The Institute for the Study of War reported Russian tactical advances in eastern Kostyantynivka by June 10, 2026, signaling intensified Russian focus and raising market confidence in capture by September and December deadlines.
Russian tactical groups advance into eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
Russian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that two Russian tactical groups advanced south of and into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking significant tactical gains in the city during the spring-summer offensive. This news increased market confidence in a later capture date.
Russian tactical groups make first confirmed gains inside eastern Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 86%6%
ISW reported that two Russian tactical groups (Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk) had entered eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed tactical gains. The September‑30 market jumped sharply (from 80 % on 2026‑06‑08 to 86 % on 2026‑06‑12).
ISW: Russian tactical groups advance into eastern Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 80%9%
ISW reported that two Russian tactical groups had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first clear sign of territorial gain. The assessment lifted the September 30 2026 probability from 71 % to 80 % on June 12.
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
September 30, 2026 surges to 84%34%
By June 10, 2026, Russian tactical groups advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, making slow but costly gains. Despite these advances, Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions, limiting Russian operational success and influencing market expectations for capture by summer or later.
Zelenskyy says June‑July will be decisive for the war
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%8%
In a televised address Zelenskyy warned that June‑July would be decisive for the war, implicitly raising expectations that Russia might intensify its push on Kostyantynivka. The market’s probability for the December 31, 2026 outcome jumped from 83 % on 11 June to 91 % on 15 June.
ISW reports Russian tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but no operational breakthrough
December 31, 2026 jumps to 83%5%
Russian forces made tactical advances in Kostyantynivka during the spring-summer offensive but were unlikely to achieve rapid operational breakthroughs, reflecting slow progress and high costs.
Observer predicts Kostyantynivka may fall to Russia by end of summer 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 80%10%
On June 10, 2026, a Ukrainian military observer stated that Russian forces might capture Kostyantynivka by the end of summer 2026 using infiltration tactics similar to those used in Pokrovsk. This forecast likely contributed to the sharp market price increase for the September 30, 2026 outcome.
Russian Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk groups push into eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 85%4%
Observer Mashovets reported that two Russian tactical groups (Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk) had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, indicating a tactical breakthrough. This revived market optimism for a Russian capture, causing the December‑2026 probability to dip again to 85 % and the June‑2026 probability to rise to 77 %.
Russian tactical groups advance into eastern Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 71%9%
Two Russian tactical groups, including the 'Bakhmut' and 'Dzerzhinsk' groups, advanced south of and into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking significant tactical gains and reinforcing Russia's main effort in the spring-summer offensive.
ISW says Russian “Bakhmut” and “Dzerzhinsk” groups make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%6%
ISW reported that two Russian tactical groups – “Bakhmut” and “Dzerzhinsk” – had advanced south of and into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed tactical gain since the spring‑summer offensive began. The news lifted market confidence that Russia was making progress, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up sharply.
Russian tactical groups push into eastern Kostiantynivka, capture Novodmytrivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 82%13%
ISW reported that Russian tactical groups (Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk) had advanced into eastern Kostiantynivka and entered the village of Novodmytrivka, signalling a tangible tactical gain. This triggered a sharp rise in the September‑30 probability from 69 % to 82 % (priceBefore: 69, priceAfter: 82).
Russian forces make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but miss May capture deadline
Russian forces intensified their offensive and made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka by June 10, 2026, but failed to meet the May deadline set by their military command. This prolonged battle and heavy casualties led markets to lower the probability of a June capture and increase confidence in later dates.
Russia shifts Donetsk offensive focus to Kostyantynivka after Slovyansk stalls
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%14%
United24 republished the ISW June 10 assessment that highlighted Russia’s shift of its main effort to Kostyantynivka after the Slovyansk push stalled. The explicit statement that Russia had missed its May deadline but was still pressing forward reinforced the market view that a capture by year‑end remained plausible, again lifting the “December 31 2026” price to 91 %.
Russia makes tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, ISW says
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%11%
ISW detailed that two Russian tactical groups (Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk) had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first clear tactical gain. This news drove the market’s probability for the December 31, 2026 outcome back up to 91 % on 15 June.
Russian tactical groups make first confirmed gains inside Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%14%
ISW reported that two Russian tactical groups – the “Bakhmut” and “Dzerzhinsk” – advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed tactical gains of the spring‑summer offensive. The news lifted the market’s view that Russia could still capture the city by the end of 2026, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up from the low‑70s to 91 % by 12 June.
Russian tactical groups move into eastern Kostyantynivka, ISW says
December 31, 2026 jumps to 91%7%
ISW’s June 10 report noted that two Russian tactical groups had advanced into eastern Kostyantynivka, signalling a tactical breakthrough. Traders interpreted this as a major step toward capture, pushing the “December 31 2026” odds sharply upward to 91 % by 2026‑06‑15.
Observer says Kostyantynivka may fall by end of summer 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 80%5%
An editorial from Euromaidan Press quoted an observer saying Kostyantynivka could fall by the end of summer 2026, reinforcing expectations of a later‑date capture and nudging the “September 30 2026” probability up to 80 % on 2026‑06‑11.
Observer says Kostyantynivka could fall by end of summer 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%12%
An observer warned that Russia may capture Kostyantynivka by the end of summer 2026. This comment coincided with the biggest single‑day swing in the market (+6 pts on June 9‑11) for the December‑31, 2026 outcome, lifting it back to 89 %.
ISW: Russian forces make tactical gains in eastern Kostiantynivka on June 10
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%6%
ISW’s 10 June assessment reported Russian tactical gains in the eastern part of Kostiantynivka, including entry into Novodmytrivka, and warned that Russia could capture the city by the end of summer. The market responded with a brief surge in the “December 31 2026” odds (up to 95 % on 9 Jun) before the subsequent retreat of confidence.
ISW: Russian forces operating inside western Kostyantynivka on June 8
June 30, 2026 surges to 35%15%
ISW reported new Russian infiltration missions inside western Kostyantynivka on June 8, suggesting a potential breakthrough. The market reacted with a +3 point jump for the June‑30, 2026 outcome (from 20 % on June 5 to 35 % on June 11).
Ukrainian drones hit Russian Rubikon command post near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 78%3%
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Rubikon command post and personnel concentrations near Kostyantynivka, showing that Ukrainian drones were still able to disrupt Russian command‑and‑control. The market reacted with a small upward swing for the September‑2026 outcome (75 % → 78 %).
Russian milblogger reports Ukrainian counter‑attack near Chasiv Yar
September 30, 2026 surges to 86%36%
A Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces had counter‑attacked near Chasiv Yar, suggesting Russian setbacks on the northern flank of Kostyantynivka. The claim correlated with a sharp 30‑point swing upward for the “September 30 2026” outcome, as traders priced in a higher chance of a late‑summer capture.
Ukrainian forces make gains in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area
ISW’s June 9 assessment highlighted Ukrainian gains in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and Russian infiltration missions that failed to change the front line. The report further eroded expectations of a Russian capture, cementing the low June 30, 2026 probability.
ISW notes fresh Russian infiltration near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian drone strikes
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%9%
ISW reported fresh Russian infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka on 9 June, but also noted Ukrainian drone strikes that blunted them. The mixed‑signals caused the June‑30, 2026 price to rebound modestly from 21 % to 30 % by 11 June.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Tactical Area
September 30, 2026 rises to 73%4%
Geolocated combat footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in eastern and western Kostyantynivka, pushing back Russian infiltration groups and striking their logistics.
Ukrainian missile strikes target Russian military plant producing drone components
December 31, 2026 rises to 74%2%
On June 9-10, Ukrainian forces conducted cruise missile strikes against a Russian military plant producing key components for Shahed drones and missiles, impacting Russian operational capabilities near Kostyantynivka. This likely slowed Russian advances and affected market confidence in rapid Russian capture.
MoD claims capture of Molocharka; milblogger doubts the claim
December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%5%
The MoD claimed capture of Molocharka north of Kostyantynivka, but a Kremlin‑affiliated milblogger doubted the claim. The uncertainty caused a small upward swing for the "December 31, 2026" market (+5 pts).
Reports of Russian partial encirclement and collapse of Malocharka’s defense near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 70%2%
On June 8, reports and videos indicated Russian forces were encircling Kostyantynivka and that the defense of nearby Malocharka had collapsed, suggesting intensified Russian offensive pressure and raising market expectations for eventual capture.
Ukraine’s top commander says forces have recaptured over 600 sq km this year
December 31, 2026 rises to 85%4%
Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian forces had recaptured more than 600 sq km of territory in 2026, stressing that the offensive pressure was on Russia. The statement reinforced belief that Russia would fail to take Kostyantynivka by year‑end, lifting the June‑2026 probability back up to 85 %.
Russian forces encircle Kostyantynivka as defense collapses in nearby Malocharka
September 30, 2026 surges to 75%25%
Reports indicated Russian forces encircling Kostyantynivka with the collapse of defenses in Malocharka, signaling a potential breakthrough and increasing market confidence in a September 30 capture.
Geolocated footage shows Russian units inside western Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%35%
Geolocated footage on 8 June showed Russian forces operating inside western Kostyantynivka, suggesting an encirclement attempt. The perception of a possible rapid fall drove the “June 30 2026” probability down sharply from 61 % (19 Feb) to 26 % (12 June).
Ukrainian forces advance on southwestern and western outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%5%
In early June, Ukrainian forces made advances on the southwestern and western outskirts of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian infiltration and assaults, maintaining contested control and contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Putin rejects Zelensky’s negotiation offer, reiterates war aims amid battlefield stagnation
September 30, 2026 drops to 50%5%
On June 5-6, 2026, Russian President Putin publicly rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and reiterated commitment to war goals despite evidence of Russian military stagnation and Ukrainian tactical successes, including advances near Kostyantynivka. This hardened stance and battlefield reality influenced market perceptions of the timeline for Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces advance on southwestern and western outskirts of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 70%20%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances on the southwestern and western outskirts of Kostyantynivka, indicating active Ukrainian counterattacks and contested control, impacting market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
ISW: Russian forces launch motorized assault, replenish 80 % of units near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 85%1%
ISW reported fresh Russian motorized assaults and a replenishment of 80 % of attacking units, while also noting Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions. The news gave a modest boost to the "December 31, 2026" odds (from 84 % to 85 %).
Ukrainian forces advance on Kostiantynivka outskirts; Russian assault stalls
June 30, 2026 drops to 28%5%
ISW reported fresh Ukrainian advances on the southwestern and western outskirts of Kostiantynivka, as well as a Russian motorised assault that failed to gain ground. The news reinforced the view that Russian capture was unlikely, pushing the June 30, 2026 probability down to a new low of 28 % on 11 Jun 2026.
Fighting for Kostyantynivka continues with Russian units operating in small groups
July 31, 2026 drops to 37%12%
Russian forces were conducting disjointed attacks in Kostyantynivka without full coordination, attempting to gain footholds in urban and industrial areas, while Ukrainian forces conducted mop-up operations. This indicated ongoing contested control and limited Russian advances, impacting market confidence for near-term capture.
Ukrainian drones cripple Russian logistics around Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 23%38%
Ukrainian commanders reported that drone strikes were destroying Russian logistics and halving the distance Russian infantry must traverse to reach Kostyantynivka. The report caused a dramatic collapse of the June‑30 market (61 % → 23 %).
Zelensky offers cease‑fire; Putin rejects the proposal
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%6%
Zelensky’s open letter proposing an immediate ceasefire was rejected by Putin, signalling that diplomatic avenues would not ease the fighting. The rejection contributed to a modest rise in the September‑30 probability as traders reassessed the likelihood of a negotiated pause.
Russian milbloggers claim advances in central and western Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%4%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in the industrial zone and residential areas of Kostyantynivka, suggesting partial Russian penetration but no consolidated control, maintaining uncertainty about full capture timing.
Russian forces claim advances in central and western Kostyantynivka industrial zones
September 30, 2026 rises to 70%4%
Russian milbloggers reported advances in the industrial and residential areas of Kostyantynivka, suggesting tactical gains that likely influenced market optimism for a September or December capture despite ongoing fierce fighting.
Russian forces use white phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka, raising war crime concerns
Russian troops struck northwestern Kostyantynivka with white phosphorus munitions, likely violating international law. This intensified fighting underscored the brutal nature of the battle but did not translate into significant territorial gains, maintaining market skepticism about imminent capture.
Russian white‑phosphorus strike hits north‑western Kostiantynivka
ISW reported a Russian white‑phosphorus strike on north‑western Kostiantynivka and a humanitarian‑vehicle attack, further eroding confidence in a Russian capture and keeping the "June 30, 2026" probability low at 20 %.
Russian forces capture Kostyantynivka amid ongoing urban combat
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
Reports confirmed Russian forces took control of Kostyantynivka overnight June 2-3, marking a significant milestone in the battle and resolving the market in favor of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian Forces Strike Northwestern Kostyantynivka with White Phosphorus
June 30, 2026 drops to 69%10%
A Ukrainian brigade confirmed that Russian forces used prohibited white phosphorus munitions in northwestern Kostyantynivka, signaling an escalation in the battle for the city.
Russian forces use white phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian brigade reported and confirmed via geolocated footage that Russian forces struck northwestern Kostyantynivka with white phosphorus munitions, a prohibited weapon, highlighting the intensity and brutality of the fighting. This underscored the high stakes and ongoing fierce combat, affecting market perceptions of the conflict's severity and duration.
Russian forces use white phosphorus in Kostyantynivka, potential war crimes reported
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%5%
Russian forces struck northwestern Kostyantynivka with white phosphorus munitions, violating international law and indicating intense urban combat. This highlighted the brutal nature of the battle and ongoing contested control, influencing market perceptions of a protracted fight.
Russian forces use white phosphorus munitions in northwestern Kostyantynivka
Confirmed use of white phosphorus by Russian forces in populated areas of Kostyantynivka raised concerns about civilian harm and indicated ongoing intense combat, but did not translate into immediate territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty in market expectations.
DeepState reports expanding Russian infiltration zone in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 79%29%
Ukrainian analysts from DeepState reported that Russian forces were expanding their infiltration zone in Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure on the city from multiple directions and threatening its eventual capture. This indicated growing Russian tactical presence and influence in the city.
Russian forces capture Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast
DeepState reported that Russian forces took control of Kostiantynivka overnight June 2-3, 2026, signaling a deteriorating situation for Ukraine on the northern front and increasing market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces reportedly capture Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast
December 31, 2026 dips to 75%4%
Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reported overnight that Russian forces took control of Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast, signaling a deteriorating situation on the northern front under sustained Russian infantry pressure. This news likely increased market confidence in Russia's advance by early June.
DeepState says Russian infiltration zone in Kostiantynivka is expanding
December 31, 2026 jumps to 83%5%
DeepState wrote that Russian infiltration zones around Kostiantynivka were expanding, suggesting a possible “inevitable absorption” of the settlement. The assessment raised longer‑term capture odds, contributing to the modest rise of the December 31, 2026 probability back up to 83 % on 11 Jun 2026.
Russian forces capture Kostiantynivka in Sumy region amid ongoing assaults
On June 2, 2026, Russian forces reportedly captured Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast, signaling tactical gains in the region and raising concerns about Russian advances, though this is a different Kostiantynivka than the Donetsk city in question.
Ukrainian forces advance on Kostyantynivka outskirts amid ongoing Russian assaults
September 30, 2026 rises to 64%1%
Ukrainian troops made advances on southwestern and western outskirts of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian infiltration and assaults, indicating a contested frontline and slowing Russian progress. Market prices reflected uncertainty about a quick Russian capture.
ISW: Russian offensive in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka stalls on 2 June
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%9%
The June‑2 ISW report confirmed Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area without gaining ground, reinforcing the market’s low confidence in a capture by 30 June and keeping the “June 30” price near the low‑20 % range.
Russian offensive operations near Kostyantynivka stall without advances
On June 2, 2026, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but failed to make advances. Ukrainian strikes on Russian manpower concentrations further hindered Russian progress, sustaining the stalemate.
Russian forces capture Kostiantynivka in Sumy Oblast amid deteriorating front
September 30, 2026 rises to 53%3%
Russian forces reportedly captured Kostiantynivka in northern Sumy Oblast overnight June 2-3, marking a slow territorial gain that complicated Ukrainian border security and logistics. This event increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture by later dates.
Battle intensity grows in Kostyantynivka with Russian advances in southwestern city
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
On June 1, Russian assault detachments made significant advances in southwestern Kostyantynivka amid intense urban combat and air operations, signaling escalating conflict but not decisive capture, influencing market uncertainty.
ISW: Russian infiltrations continue; MoD claims capture of Tykhonivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 85%1%
ISW noted continued Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances; the MoD claimed seizure of Tykhonivka. The mixed picture led market participants to slightly lift the "December 31, 2026" probability (from 84 % to 85 % by 9 Jun).
ISW: Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka on June 1, no advance confirmed
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%10%
ISW’s June 1 assessment confirmed that Russian forces were only conducting infiltrations around Kostyantynivka with no confirmed gains, reinforcing market sentiment that a capture by early June was unlikely, which drove the June 30 market down to a historic low.
Russian forces intensify infiltrations near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%8%
On June 1, 2026, Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka without confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian airstrikes targeted Russian positions, and Russian claims of seizing nearby villages were contested. This stalemate contributed to declining market confidence in a June 30 capture and modest gains for later dates.
Ukrainian Forces Largely Halt Russian Spring-Summer Offensive
September 30, 2026 rises to 64%2%
Reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully halted the broader Russian Spring-Summer offensive, with Russian territorial gains in May 2026 dropping to a fraction of the previous year's rate.
Russian forces conduct infiltrations near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%2%
On June 1, Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, reflecting stalled Russian offensive momentum and sustained Ukrainian resistance.
Russia claims Tykhonivka seized; ISW says no confirmed gain near Kostiantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 66%3%
On June 1 the Russian MoD claimed seizure of Tykhonivka (northeast of Kostiantynivka) while ISW said no confirmed advance had been made. The mixed messages caused a brief bounce in the “September 30, 2026” market price to 66 % before falling back, indicating uncertainty about a late‑year capture.
Russian forces continue infiltration near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances
Despite ongoing infiltration missions, Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains near Kostyantynivka in early June, indicating a stalemate that contributed to market uncertainty and mixed price movements.
Russian forces continue infiltration near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 dips to 26%1%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, reflecting a stalemate that influenced market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian Assault Detachments Make Significant Advances in Southwestern Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Russian forces intensified their assault operations, with the 'South' grouping making notable advances in the southwestern part of the city, increasing the likelihood of a medium-term capture.
Russian forces continue infiltrations but fail to make confirmed advances in Kostyantynivka
Despite intensified efforts and claims of territorial gains by Russian forces, Ukrainian counterstrikes and drone activity have largely halted Russian advances in Kostyantynivka, leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of near-term capture.
Battle for Kostyantynivka intensifies as Russian detachments make advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%12%
Pravda Ukraine’s June‑1 report highlighted a dramatic increase in the intensity of the battle and new Russian advances in the southwestern part of the city, coinciding with the market’s sharp rise in the “December 31, 2026” probability to 92 % on 16 June.
ISW: Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed gains
September 30, 2026 rises to 60%4%
The ISW June‑1 2026 assessment reported that Russian forces were only infiltrating Kostyantynivka with no confirmed advances, reinforcing a low probability of capture by the mid‑year dates. The “September 30 2026” price rose modestly from 56 % to 60 % on June 8, reflecting a slight uptick in optimism that a later capture might still be possible.
Russian forces make no confirmed gains near Kostyantynivka on June 1
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%47%
Critical Threats’ June 1 assessment reported that Russian forces had not secured any new territory near Kostyantynivka, leading traders to downgrade capture probabilities; the June‑30 outcome fell sharply from 73 % (Jun 10) to 26 % (Jun 10) over the week.
Bloomberg: Russia’s war‑spending path unsustainable, cuts looming
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%16%
Bloomberg revealed that Russian war‑spending was unsustainable, prompting expectations of reduced offensive capability; the market sharply downgraded the "June 30, 2026" capture odds from 36 % to 20 % by June 6.
ISW Reports Ukrainian Forces Successfully Blunt Russian Spring-Summer Offensive
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%10%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Ukrainian forces successfully halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, leading to Russia's first net territorial loss since 2024 and stalling their advance.
Russian forces continue infiltrations near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances
On June 1, Russian forces were reported to continue infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka without confirmed territorial gains, while Ukrainian drone strikes impeded Russian logistics. This maintained pressure but limited Russian progress, reflected in mixed market price movements.
Ukraine claims destruction of 105 Russian artillery pieces; Russian advances limited to infiltrations
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%19%
ISW’s June 1 assessment reported only infiltration, no confirmed Russian advances, while Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed 105 Russian artillery pieces. This setback lowered confidence in a Russian capture, dragging the “June 30 2026” odds down to 34 % by 2026‑06‑15.
Battle intensity grows as Russian forces make advances in southwestern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 81%6%
Russian assault detachments made significant advances in southwestern Kostyantynivka amid intense fighting, signaling a possible breakthrough and contributing to a rebound in December capture probability.
Ukrainian airstrike targets Russian position in western Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 29%9%
Geolocated footage showed a Ukrainian airstrike against a Russian position in western Kostyantynivka after a Russian infiltration mission, demonstrating Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian advances. This event corresponded with a decline in market confidence for capture by June 30, 2026.
Ukrainian forces push back, turning parts of Kostyantynivka front into gray zones
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%18%
Pravda UK’s May‑31 frontline update described Ukrainian counter‑attacks turning several frontline zones into “gray zones”, which reduced confidence in a Russian capture by September and pushed the June‑30 odds lower.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kostyantynivka after infiltration attempts
August 15, 2026 plunges to 27%32%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration attempts, indicating ongoing contested fighting and maintaining downward pressure on near-term capture probabilities.
Russia claims capture of Tykhonivka near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 64%6%
The MoD announced the seizure of Tykhonivka, a settlement northeast of Kostyantynivka; traders interpreted this as a modest step toward the city, nudging the “September 30” odds upward.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts near Kostyantynivka outskirts
July 31, 2026 plunges to 32%17%
Throughout May 2026, Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka, maintaining control over key areas and preventing Russian capture by the May deadline. This caused market prices for near-term capture to decline sharply.
Russian forces gain control of Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka roadway, Ukrainian withdrawal likely
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%5%
Reports indicated Russian control over the roadway from Druzhkivka to Kostyantynivka and Ukrainian forces preparing for withdrawal, signaling deteriorating Ukrainian positions and increasing market confidence for capture by September 30, 2026.
Russian military sets May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk outskirts
September 30, 2026 surges to 78%15%
Ukrainian official Olga Kosenko reported that Russian commanders had set a May‑30 deadline to reach the outskirts of Kramatorsk, a key step toward the Fortress Belt. The deadline underscored a renewed Russian push, lifting market optimism for a May‑July capture and pushing the September‑30, 2026 price up to 78 % by 11 June.
Reports of chaos and heavy fighting in Kostyantynivka amid Russian attempts to gain foothold
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
By late May, reports described chaotic and intense fighting in Kostyantynivka with heavy artillery and aviation use, but no decisive Russian capture, reflecting the ongoing stalemate and market skepticism about near-term Russian success.
Putin believes Russian forces can capture Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
Reports indicated that President Putin expects Russian forces to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Fall 2026, signaling a strategic timeline that aligns with market price increases for the September 30 and December 31 capture options.
ISW: Russian infiltration continues in Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian drones strike city centre
September 30, 2026 surges to 66%16%
ISW’s 28 May 2026 assessment recorded continued Russian infiltration missions within Kostyantynivka but no territorial gain, while Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian‑held buildings. The mixed signal lifted confidence that Russia could meet the September 2026 deadline, raising that market from 50 % to 55 % and then to 66 % by end‑May.
Putin says Russia can seize Donetsk and Luhansk by fall 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%9%
The Financial Times reported that Putin believed Russia could capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk by fall 2026, boosting market expectations for a September capture; the "September 30, 2026" price rose from 59 % to 68 % on May 29.
Russian Infiltrations Continue in Central Kostyantynivka Amid Co-located Positions
June 30, 2026 jumps to 29%9%
Russian forces continued infiltration missions in central Kostyantynivka, but failed to make confirmed advances as Ukrainian forces maintained strong defensive positions inside the city.
Russian and Ukrainian Positions Remain Co-Located in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 62%2%
Russian forces continued infiltration missions within Kostyantynivka but failed to advance, as Ukrainian forces retained strong defensive positions in the central and southern parts of the city.
Russian and Ukrainian forces remain interspersed in Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
Despite infiltration missions by Russian forces, Ukrainian troops maintained positions and conducted strikes within Kostyantynivka, resulting in a stalemate that lowered market confidence for capture by June 30, 2026.
Russian forces conduct infiltrations in Kostyantynivka but make no advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%19%
ISW noted that Russian forces continued infiltration missions inside Kostyantynivka without advancing, reinforcing the view that Moscow was not gaining ground. The June‑30 market slid further that week, while the September‑30 market edged higher as traders re‑evaluated short‑term prospects.
ISW: Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka on May 28, but no advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%17%
ISW’s May‑28 assessment recorded Russian infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka but explicitly noted no territorial gain, prompting a further drop in the “June 30” probability.
Intense urban fighting and infiltration missions continue in Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Russian and Ukrainian forces remain interspersed within Kostyantynivka, with ongoing infiltration missions and urban combat. Ukrainian strikes and resistance limit Russian advances, reflecting a protracted battle and influencing market skepticism on early capture.
Russian forces continue infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 rises to 37%2%
On May 28, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed territorial advances, reflecting a stalemate and contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions but fail to advance in Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 60%7%
At the end of May 2026, Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions. This stalemate contributed to a market rebound for the December 31, 2026 outcome and a rise in the September 30, 2026 outcome price.
Russian forces intensify infiltration but fail to advance in Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%5%
Late May 2026 saw continued Russian infiltration attempts within Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian forces striking back effectively. Despite increased activity, Russian troops did not achieve significant territorial gains, maintaining a contested frontline.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 10%51%
By late May 2026, Russian forces continued infiltration missions within and near Kostyantynivka but did not make significant advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining positions. This stalled progress likely caused a drop in market confidence for near-term capture, reflected in price declines for earlier capture dates.
Battle for Kostyantynivka intensifies with heavy artillery and urban fighting
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%9%
Reports described chaotic and intense fighting in Kostyantynivka with heavy use of artillery and aviation, infiltration by small groups, and patchwork control of buildings, reflecting ongoing fierce resistance and uncertainty about full Russian capture.
Battle for Kostyantynivka intensifies amid chaotic urban fighting
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
Reports describe chaotic and intense fighting within Kostyantynivka, with heavy artillery and aviation leveling districts and Russian infiltration in urban areas, indicating fierce resistance and slow Russian progress, which aligns with market price drops for mid-2026 capture.
Battle conditions in Kostyantynivka described as chaotic with intense urban fighting
May 31, 2026 dips to 3%1%
By late May, the battle in Kostyantynivka was characterized by chaotic urban combat with heavy artillery and aviation use, and Russian forces employing small infiltration tactics rather than large advances, indicating a protracted and difficult fight, which kept market confidence low for imminent capture.
Russian assault detachments make gains in southwestern Kostiantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Pravda UK reported that Russian assault detachments made “significant advances” in the southwestern part of the city, causing a brief uptick in the September‑30 odds as traders saw a possible breach of the defensive line.
Heavy fighting and chaos in Kostyantynivka with intense artillery and aviation use
By late May, the situation in Kostyantynivka was described as chaotic with intense artillery and aviation strikes from both sides, but no decisive Russian capture. This ongoing stalemate and high Ukrainian resistance kept market probabilities for capture by May and June 2026 very low.
Heavy fighting and chaos reported in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing battle
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%8%
Reports described chaotic and intense fighting in Kostyantynivka with heavy use of artillery and aviation by both sides, and Russian infiltration in rear areas. This indicated a protracted battle, reducing near-term capture likelihood.
Putin signs law permitting Russian forces to intervene abroad to defend citizens
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%28%
President Putin signed a law allowing the Russian Armed Forces to be deployed abroad to protect Russian citizens facing foreign prosecutions. Analysts linked the law to a potential escalation in the Donetsk offensive, causing the “June 30, 2026” probability to fall sharply from 61 % (19 Feb) to 33 % (5 May).
ISW: Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area; 25th CAA commander replaced
September 30, 2026 rises to 59%2%
ISW noted Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area and the replacement of a key Russian commander, signaling a renewed push that lifted the September‑30 probability.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct infiltration and counterattacks near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 60%6%
Both sides engaged in infiltration missions and localized advances around Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces making limited territorial gains but facing strong Ukrainian resistance. This stalemate contributed to fluctuating market confidence in a near-term capture.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%15%
Geolocated footage in late May showed Russian forces advancing in and around Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing offensive pressure. However, these advances were slow and costly, tempering expectations for a rapid capture by June 30, 2026, contributing to a price decline for that outcome.
Putin enacts law permitting overseas Russian military deployments
September 30, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Putin signed a law allowing the Russian armed forces to be deployed abroad to protect Russian citizens prosecuted abroad. Analysts interpreted the move as a signal of renewed Russian resolve to intensify the offensive in Donetsk, nudging the September 30, 2026 capture probability upward from 50 % to 77 % by 11 Jun 2026.
Russian President Putin enacts law authorizing overseas military use amid ongoing Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 74%3%
On May 25, Putin enacted a law allowing overseas use of Russian forces to defend citizens, reflecting Kremlin's commitment to the war effort including the costly offensive in Kostyantynivka. This bolstered market confidence in Russia's sustained military campaign, supporting prices for later capture dates.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct infiltration and counterattacks around Kostyantynivka
In late May 2026, geolocated footage showed Russian infiltration missions and Ukrainian strikes in and around Kostyantynivka, reflecting a contested frontline with neither side fully controlling the city, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russia appoints new commander of 25th Combined Arms Army
September 30, 2026 rises to 84%4%
ISW reported the replacement of the 25th CAA commander, a move interpreted as a reinforcement of the Russian effort. The market’s odds for the September 30, 2026 outcome climbed further, peaking at 84 % on 13 June.
Russian and Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
September 30, 2026 rises to 57%3%
Both sides made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, with Russian forces advancing in some outskirts and Ukrainian forces maintaining positions, reflecting a contested battlefield and contributing to fluctuating market prices.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid intense fighting
September 30, 2026 rises to 56%3%
In late May, Russian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area despite fierce Ukrainian resistance and infiltration missions, reflecting ongoing pressure but limited decisive gains, influencing market uncertainty about near-term capture.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Dovha Balka as Infiltration Battles Continue
December 31, 2026 rises to 76%4%
Ukrainian forces made tactical advances northeast and southwest of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces conducted further infiltration missions on the city's outskirts.
Putin enacts law to deploy troops abroad to protect Russian citizens in foreign courts
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
Putin signed a law allowing Russian forces to be deployed overseas to defend Russian citizens in foreign courts. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign that Russia was reallocating resources away from the Kostyantynivka front, further depressing the likelihood of capture and pushing the market toward the May‑31 outcome.
Kostyantynivka remains a strategic Ukrainian stronghold despite heavy bombardment
Despite severe Russian bombardment and deteriorating living conditions, Ukrainian forces held Kostyantynivka, with only a small fraction of residents remaining. This resilience contributed to very low market odds for Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Kostyantynivka remains a heavily contested city with few residents left
May 31, 2026 drops to 4%6%
Despite heavy Russian bombardment and severe humanitarian conditions, Ukrainian forces continue to hold Kostyantynivka, indicating resilience and lowering immediate capture probabilities.
Kostyantynivka remains a heavily contested city with few residents left
September 30, 2026 rises to 59%3%
A New York Times report described Kostyantynivka as a devastated city under constant Russian bombardment but still held by Ukrainian forces, indicating ongoing stalemate and uncertainty about near-term capture.
Kostyantynivka remains a heavily contested city with few residents left
December 31, 2026 dips to 75%3%
Despite ongoing Russian bombardment and strategic importance, Ukrainian forces continue to hold Kostyantynivka, with the city suffering severe damage and depopulation, reflecting low near-term capture likelihood but persistent long-term uncertainty.
Kostyantynivka remains a heavily contested city with few residents left
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%5%
Despite heavy Russian bombardment and dire humanitarian conditions, Ukrainian forces continue to hold Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing stalemate and contributing to low market confidence in imminent Russian capture.
New York Times reports Kostyantynivka remains a heavily contested, devastated city
The New York Times described Kostyantynivka as a city under constant Russian bombardment with few residents remaining, highlighting ongoing fierce fighting and Ukrainian determination to hold the city, which kept market probabilities for near-term capture very low.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid ongoing Russian infiltration
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and advancing in eastern Minkivka near Kostyantynivka, while Russian infiltration missions continued. This Ukrainian tactical initiative contributed to declining market confidence in a June 30 capture.
Ukrainian forces advance in outskirts of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Minkivka and striking Russian positions near Kostyantynivka, countering Russian infiltration efforts. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for a June 30 capture.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka outskirts amid ongoing infiltration missions
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On May 24, Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in southern and southwestern Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration missions, demonstrating continued contested control and preventing Russian consolidation, which kept market prices low for imminent capture.
Ukrainian strikes destroy Russian fuel trucks near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 surges to 75%25%
Ukrainian video evidence showed strikes on Russian fuel trucks and positions near Kostyantynivka, highlighting Russian logistical strain and slowing of its offensive. The market reacted with a modest rise in the September‑2026 probability (50 % → 75 %).
Ukrainian strikes hit Russian positions on Kostyantynivka outskirts after infiltration attempts
May 31, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in the southern and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration missions, demonstrating Ukrainian control and disrupting Russian efforts, further reducing near-term capture odds.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka outskirts after infiltration missions
Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Kostyantynivka's outskirts following Russian infiltration attempts demonstrated effective defense, further diminishing short-term Russian capture chances and stabilizing longer-term market expectations.
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 dips to 72%4%
Following diplomatic talks, Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners, signaling some cooperation despite ongoing hostilities. This event slightly improved market confidence in longer-term peace prospects, stabilizing probabilities for later capture dates.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions west and southwest of Kostyantynivka amid Russian infiltration
September 30, 2026 rises to 53%3%
On May 20, geolocated footage and reports indicated Ukrainian forces held positions west and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims of control. Russian forces continued limited attacks but failed to advance, reinforcing market expectations of delayed or unlikely Russian capture by September 2026.
Ukrainian forces maintain presence in Illinivka and southwestern Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 28%7%
Geolocated footage confirmed sustained Ukrainian control in key areas near Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of full control and dampening market optimism for near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces hold western Kostyantynivka and advance in Illinivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%17%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces had regained positions in Illinivka and the southwestern outskirts of Kostiantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of advance and prompting a sharp fall in the June‑30 market price.
Ukrainian forces retain western Kostyantynivka; Russia shifts tank units
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%22%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces held positions in western Kostyantynivka contrary to Russian claims, and that Russia was redeploying tank regiments away from the area. The perception of a stalled Russian push led to a further decline in the June 30 contract, pushing it to 29 % by late‑May.
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance south of Kostyantynivka; Russia reallocates troops
ISW’s May 20 assessment noted continued Ukrainian advances south of Kostyantynivka and Russian attempts to shift forces elsewhere, reinforcing the view that a Russian capture was unlikely and keeping the “May 31, 2026” probability near its low level.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions near Kostyantynivka amid Russian infiltration attempts
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%11%
Ukrainian forces held key positions in and around Kostyantynivka, including Illinivka and southwestern outskirts, repelling Russian infiltration missions. This defensive resilience dampened expectations for a rapid Russian capture, reflected in falling market prices for June 30 and rising prices for later dates.
Russian command reallocates forces away from Kupyansk, indicating shift in focus
May 31, 2026 drops to 3%6%
Reports of Russian troop transfers away from Kupyansk to other fronts suggest abandonment of efforts to seize nearby areas including Kostyantynivka, contributing to market price declines for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces advance and hold positions around Illinivka and Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%27%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and holding positions in Illinivka, contradicting Russian claims of progress. This boost to Ukrainian momentum drove the June‑2026 probability sharply lower (61 % → 34 %).
ISW reports Russian units redirected from Kostyantynivka to Lyman on May 20
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%31%
The ISW report on May 20 said Russian command was moving several tank and motorized‑rifle regiments away from the Kupyansk/Kostyantynivka axis to cover losses elsewhere, indicating a de‑escalation of the assault on Kostyantynivka. This re‑allocation coincided with the steepest drop in the May‑31 market price.
Ukrainian forces advance in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%29%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in Illinivka and sustained presence in southwestern Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims and indicating ongoing contested control, which pressured June capture odds downward.
Ukraine thwarts Russian offensive, Kostyantynivka capture unlikely by year‑end
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%1%
A Cryptobriefing article summarising the latest ISW assessment that Ukrainian forces had thwarted the Russian spring‑summer offensive lowered market confidence in a capture by year‑end, causing the December‑31 price to drop from 78 % (May 3) to 77 % (Jun 2).
Ukrainian forces advance south of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian infiltration missions
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
In late May 2026, Ukrainian forces made advances south of Kostyantynivka while Russian forces continued infiltration missions in the area. This dynamic fighting reflected the contested nature of the city and surrounding areas, impacting market perceptions of capture timelines.
Russian command reallocates tank regiments away from Kupyansk, indicating shift in focus
Reports on May 20 indicated Russian forces transferring tank regiments from Kupyansk to Lyman, suggesting a deprioritization of some offensives and continued infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka, which may have tempered market optimism for rapid Russian capture.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct infiltration and counterattacks around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
In May 2026, both sides engaged in infiltration missions and counterattacks around Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces advancing in some outskirts and Russian forces attempting to consolidate positions. This dynamic fighting caused mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Russia shifts 47th Tank Division units from Kostyantynivka to Lyman direction
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
ISW reported that Russia was moving several tank and motorized rifle regiments from the Kupyansk direction to Lyman, signalling a possible abandonment of the Kostyantynivka offensive. This redeployment lowered the market’s confidence in a Russian capture, reinforcing the drop toward the May‑31 outcome.
ISW: Ukrainian forces hold positions around Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
ISW’s May‑20 assessment noted sustained Ukrainian presence in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka since 30 April, contradicting Russian claims of progress. The documented Ukrainian hold reduced confidence in a Russian capture, reinforcing the drop in the May‑31 market.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, suspected Ukrainian involvement
The assassination of a high-ranking Russian general in Moscow, possibly by Ukrainian intelligence, underscored ongoing covert conflict and may have influenced market perceptions of Russian military vulnerabilities, affecting near-term capture probabilities.
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
ISW’s May‑20 assessment recorded Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area while noting Russian infiltration attempts, which pushed the Sep‑30 probability up (to 62 %) and the June‑30 probability down further.
Russia moves tank units from Kupyansk to Lyman, easing pressure on Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 52%9%
ISW reported that Russia was redeploying tank regiments from the Kupyansk sector to Lyman, suggesting a shift away from the Kostyantynivka offensive. Traders interpreted this as a slowdown, pushing the June‑30, 2026 probability down (from 61 % on Feb 19 to 52 % on Apr 7).
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance and hold western Kostyantynivka on May 20, 2026
September 30, 2026 rises to 62%4%
The May 20 ISW report highlighted Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and confirmed Ukrainian control of western Kostyantynivka, counter‑balancing earlier Russian claims. The positive Ukrainian news nudged the “September 30 2026” odds upward again after a brief dip.
Ukrainian forces repel final Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka, holding city
May 31, 2026 drops to 2%14%
Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults throughout March to May 2026, maintaining control despite Russian attempts to infiltrate and strangle the city. This led to a collapse in market prices for capture by May 31, 2026, to near zero.
Ukrainian forces conduct infiltration missions and maintain positions near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 72%4%
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and conducted infiltration missions against Russian troops. Russian forces reportedly transferred units away from the area, indicating possible abandonment of efforts to seize Kostyantynivka soon.
ISW finds Ukrainian forces holding positions around Kostiantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%28%
ISW’s assessment showed sustained Ukrainian presence in Illinivka and the southwestern outskirts of Kostiantynivka since 30 April, contradicting Russian claims of control. The confirmed Ukrainian advances lowered market confidence that Russia would capture the city, contributing to the sharp fall of the June 30, 2026 probability from 61 % to 33 % by early June.
Ukrainian forces advance south of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%41%
In May 2026, Ukrainian forces made tactical advances south of Kostyantynivka while Russian forces continued infiltration missions, reflecting a contested battlefield with neither side achieving decisive control, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russia reshuffles high‑command amid ongoing Kostyantynivka offensive
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%8%
The May 20 ISW report highlighted continued Russian pressure and a command change in the Western Grouping, which was interpreted as a push to sustain the offensive. The market responded with a surge for the September‑30 outcome (price rose from 64 % on Jun 4 to 72 % on Jun 8).
ISW: Ukraine advances south of Kostiantynivka, Russia’s infiltrations stall
September 30, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
ISW’s May‑20 assessment noted Ukrainian advances south of Kostiantynivka and a sustained Russian infiltration without confirmed gains. The report shifted sentiment toward a later‑date capture, lifting the “September 30, 2026” odds from 50 % to 58 % by early May.
Ukrainian forces advance near Kostyantynivka, repelling Russian infiltration
May 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
By mid-May, Ukrainian forces advanced in areas south and southwest of Kostyantynivka, maintaining control despite Russian infiltration attempts. This reinforced market expectations that Russian capture by May 31 was unlikely, pushing that outcome's probability to zero.
Russian command reallocates forces away from Kupyansk, focusing on Kostyantynivka direction
September 30, 2026 rises to 57%3%
On May 20, 2026, reports indicated Russian forces transferring units to the Lyman direction and possibly abandoning efforts to seize Kupyansk, while continuing infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian advances south of Kostyantynivka and sustained resistance contributed to mixed market signals, with some price volatility.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions west and southwest of Kostyantynivka amid Russian infiltration
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%34%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding key positions west and southwest of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims and indicating ongoing contested control, which tempered market optimism for near-term Russian capture.
Russia shifts tank regiments from Kupyansk to Lyman, weakening Kostyantynivka push
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%37%
A source said the Russian command was moving tank regiments from the Kupyansk direction to Lyman, suggesting a de‑prioritisation of the Kostyantynivka offensive. Traders interpreted the redeployment as a setback for Moscow, pushing the June‑30 probability down sharply.
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance south of Kostyantynivka, Russia only infiltrates
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%41%
ISW reported Ukrainian advances south of Kostyantynivka and sustained Ukrainian presence, contradicting Russian claims. This reinforced the view that Russia was unlikely to capture the city by year‑end, further depressing the "June 30, 2026" odds.
May 20 EMPR report notes intense Russian attacks with no gains
July 31, 2026 surges to 66%17%
EMPR’s May 20 update recorded a surge of Russian attacks in the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk directions but noted no substantive territorial gains. The lack of progress reinforced market belief that early‑year capture was unlikely, contributing to the steady rise of the July‑31 contract as traders shifted optimism toward a summer‑time breakthrough.
Russia redirects tank regiments from Kostyantynivka to Lyman, weakening its offensive
September 30, 2026 surges to 65%15%
ISW reported that Russian commanders were moving additional tank and motorized rifle regiments to the Lyman direction, signalling a shift of forces away from Kostyantynivka and hinting at difficulties in the city's capture. The market’s price for the September‑30 outcome rose from 50 % to 65 % in the following days as traders judged the deadline less likely.
Russia strikes Kyiv with missiles and drones before Zelenskyy-Trump meeting
May 31, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Russia launched missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, killing civilians and striking residential buildings just before talks between Zelenskyy and Trump. This aggressive action likely reinforced market doubts about rapid Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026, contributing to the price drop to 2%.
Russian forces continue infiltration and tactical advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 72%4%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and made tactical advances south of Kostyantynivka in May 2026, despite Ukrainian forces maintaining positions in the area. This indicated ongoing fighting with incremental Russian progress, influencing market confidence in a later capture date.
Russian command reallocates forces amid stalled Kostyantynivka offensive
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%6%
Reports indicated Russian command transferred key regiments away from the Kostyantynivka direction to other fronts due to heavy losses, signaling a deprioritization of the offensive and dampening market expectations for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces regain tactical initiative and advance near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%11%
Ukrainian troops advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, regaining ground and repelling Russian infiltration missions. This shift decreased the likelihood of Russian capture by mid-2026, reflected in falling market prices for June 30 capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions west and southwest of Kostyantynivka despite Russian infiltration attempts
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Geolocated footage on May 17 and 19 showed Ukrainian forces holding and advancing in areas west and southwest of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian infiltration efforts and indicating continued Ukrainian control, which contributed to the market's low confidence in near-term Russian capture.
ISW reports Russia shifting tank regiments from Kostyantynivka after missed May deadline
September 30, 2026 jumps to 64%5%
ISW noted that Russia was transferring tank regiments away from the Kostyantynivka axis, suggesting a lull after missed May deadline. The perceived reduction in Russian pressure lifted confidence that the city would survive past September, moving the September 30 2026 probability up to 64 % on 20 May (+5 pts).
Russia reallocates forces away from Kostyantynivka, signaling offensive slowdown
September 30, 2026 jumps to 67%12%
ISW’s 20 May assessment noted that Russian command was shifting troops away from the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area to reinforce elsewhere, signalling a de‑escalation. The market responded with the largest drop for the September‑30 contract, reflecting reduced expectations of a Russian capture before year‑end.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions and redeploy units near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Russian forces continued infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka and redeployed tank regiments to compensate for losses, indicating ongoing intense fighting but limited territorial gains. This maintained pressure on the market with mixed signals on capture timing.
Russian command transfers tank regiments away from Kostyantynivka direction
May 31, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Reports indicated Russian forces redeployed key tank regiments away from the Kostyantynivka area to other fronts, suggesting abandonment of efforts to capture the city soon, sharply reducing market odds for near-term capture.
Russia Establishes Drone Corridors in Kostyantynivka as Advances Slow to One Kilometer per Week
September 30, 2026 drops to 52%5%
Russia established drone corridors to control local airspace, but Ukrainian counterattacks and strategic adaptations slowed Russian ground advances to just one kilometer per week.
Russians establish drone corridors through Ukrainian kill zones near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 dips to 1%4%
Forbes detailed the establishment of Russian “drone corridors” around Kostyantynivka, noting the advance had slowed to about one kilometre per week. The article reinforced the view that a rapid capture was unlikely, contributing to the continued drop in the “May 31 2026” probability to its lowest level of 1 %.
Russian advances toward Kostyantynivka slow to ~1 km/week; drone corridors set up
December 31, 2026 drops to 77%14%
Forbes reported that Russian advances had slowed to about one kilometre per week, and that Russia was establishing “drone corridors” but at a very gradual pace. Traders interpreted the slowdown as reducing the probability of a capture before year‑end, causing the December 31 contract to dip from 91 % to 77 % by the end of May.
Russians establish drone corridors as advances near Kostyantynivka slow
May 31, 2026 drops to 5%7%
Forbes noted that Russian advances had slowed to about one kilometre per week and that drone corridors were being set up, reinforcing the view that Russian momentum was waning and pushing the market sharply lower for the nearest capture dates.
Russia establishes drone corridors through Ukrainian kill zones near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Russian forces set up drone corridors to control local airspace and support their offensive around Kostyantynivka, but advances slowed to about one kilometer per week, reflecting stalled momentum and declining market confidence for near-term capture.
Ukraine air force reports Russian drone and missile attacks across 29 locations
Ukraine's air force reported Russian attacks on 653 drones and 51 missiles, with 585 drones and 30 missiles shot down, highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and market concerns about battlefield stability.
Russian drone corridors around Kostyantynivka advance only ~1 km per week
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%5%
Forbes highlighted that Russian drone corridors around Kostyantynivka were progressing only about one kilometre per week, underscoring a slow advance. The perception of a prolonged stalemate reinforced the decline in the June‑30 market.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian servicemember in southwestern Kostyantynivka
On May 19, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian servicemember in the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka after a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing contested control and Ukrainian resistance. This event reinforced market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Forbes: Russian drone corridors near Kostiantynivka advance only ~1 km per week
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%35%
A Forbes article described how Russia’s newly‑established drone corridors were progressing only about one kilometre per week, indicating a slowdown in the offensive. The perception of a stalled Russian advance pushed the market’s view of a June 30 2026 capture down sharply, from 61 % to 26 % by 2026‑06‑02.
U.S. President Trump hosts Zelenskyy, market reacts to peace‑deal optimism
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy in Florida sparked optimism that a settlement was near, causing the December‑2026 outcome to stabilize at 76% while later dates remained low, reflecting belief that any capture would be delayed beyond May.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy criticizes Europe’s slow response amid ongoing war
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy condemned Europe's inadequate support, emphasizing Ukraine's continued resistance and need for Western aid, which may have bolstered confidence in Ukrainian defense and reduced expectations of rapid Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russia's Defense Ministry reports downing of Ukrainian drones over Russia
September 30, 2026 rises to 53%3%
Russia's Defense Ministry reported that its forces downed at least 121 Ukrainian drones over southwestern and western Russia, indicating continued Russian offensive operations and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian drone strike on maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia
December 31, 2026 dips to 55%1%
Russian drones attacked a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, injuring six people, further escalating the conflict and contributing to market volatility.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%41%
Geolocated footage and ISW data from mid-May 2026 show Ukrainian forces holding positions in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims of advances and indicating ongoing contested control, which contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian gains around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%6%
ISW released geolocated footage showing Ukrainian advances in Illinivka and the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims and causing the market to sharply downgrade the likelihood of a September capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain presence in Illinivka and western Kostyantynivka, repelling Russian claims
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed sustained Ukrainian presence in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of control. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive success and likely contributed to declining market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 60%7%
Geolocated footage confirmed sustained Ukrainian presence in Illinivka and southwestern Kostyantynivka, countering Russian claims and indicating Ukrainian resilience, which influenced market confidence in a later capture date.
Ukrainian forces report heavy drone attacks on Russian logistics hubs
May 31, 2026 rises to 15%4%
Reports of Ukrainian counter‑offensives suggested increased pressure on Russian supply lines, briefly improving odds for a delayed capture and causing a modest rebound in the May‑31 price.
Ukrainian counterattacks advance in Illinivka and southwestern Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 29%6%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims and further reducing market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
June 30, 2026 drops to 34%12%
In mid-May 2026, Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, countering Russian infiltration missions and maintaining positions in key sectors. This Ukrainian progress contributed to a market decline in the likelihood of a June 30, 2026 Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces advance in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Geolocated footage in mid-May showed Ukrainian forces advancing in central Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, maintaining positions contrary to Russian claims. This Ukrainian resilience contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Ukrainian forces hold positions in western Kostyantynivka and advance in surrounding areas
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%6%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces maintaining positions in western Kostyantynivka and advancing in nearby Illinivka, countering Russian claims of control. This Ukrainian resilience contributed to market price stabilization and slight increases for later capture dates.
Ukrainian forces advance in Illinivka and southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Ukrainian troops made tactical advances near Kostyantynivka, regaining initiative and holding positions contrary to Russian claims. This slowed Russian progress and caused market prices for near-term capture dates to decline.
Ukrainian forces hold positions in western Kostyantynivka and advance in nearby Illinivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%6%
Ukrainian troops maintained control over western Kostyantynivka and advanced in the nearby Illinivka area, countering Russian claims of progress. This strengthened market confidence in Ukrainian defense and tempered expectations for rapid Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces advance in Illinivka and hold southwestern Kostyantynivka positions
May 31, 2026 drops to 3%10%
Mid-May footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in central Illinivka south of Kostyantynivka and maintaining positions in the southwestern outskirts, countering Russian claims of control and indicating Ukrainian resilience, which pressured market probabilities downward for near-term capture.
Ukrainian Forces Advance South of Kostyantynivka Near Illinivka
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in central Illinivka and maintained a presence on the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, pushing back Russian claims.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Central Illinivka South of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in central Illinivka and a sustained presence in the southwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of control.
Palestinians mourn Hamas leader killed in conflict amid regional tensions
The death of Hamas’ Qassam Brigades leader in Gaza heightened regional tensions but had limited direct impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, it contributed to broader geopolitical uncertainty affecting market sentiment on conflict outcomes.
Russian forces continue ground assaults in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area but do not advance
December 31, 2026 rises to 75%2%
Failure to make tactical gains reduced capture probability, contributing to price decline.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
Russian troops maintained offensive operations but did not make territorial gains due to Ukrainian counterattacks, reinforcing market doubts about near-term Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Car bomb kills Russian general in Moscow, suspected Ukrainian intelligence involvement
September 30, 2026 rises to 57%1%
A car bomb killed a senior Russian general in Moscow, with Russian authorities blaming Ukrainian intelligence. This assassination reflects ongoing covert conflict dynamics that may affect Russian military operations and thus market perceptions of Russian advances like Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026.
Russian missile strike flattens Kyiv apartment building, killing 24
May 31, 2026 drops to 11%14%
The deadly attack highlighted Russia’s willingness to intensify strikes, raising fears of broader offensives and pushing the market’s short‑term capture probabilities sharply down.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy urges faster diplomacy amid ongoing conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 56%3%
Zelenskyy called for accelerated diplomatic efforts to end the war, reflecting Ukraine's desire to resolve the conflict despite continued Russian attacks. This statement influenced market sentiment by highlighting the stalemate and uncertainty over territorial outcomes.
Russian missile attack kills civilians in Kyiv amid ongoing peace talks
May 31, 2026 drops to 2%9%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed 24 civilians, underscoring the war’s brutality despite diplomatic efforts. This event heightened doubts about a swift Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, pushing down probabilities for near-term capture dates.
Russian missile attack kills 24 in Kyiv apartment building
A deadly Russian missile strike on Kyiv caused civilian casualties and highlighted ongoing conflict intensity, potentially impacting market perceptions of Russia's military focus and resource allocation away from Kostyantynivka.
Russian missile attack kills 24 in Kyiv apartment building amid stalled peace talks
May 31, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed 24 people, underscoring the ongoing violence and humanitarian toll despite diplomatic efforts. This event likely depressed market confidence in near-term Russian capture dates, as fighting remained intense and peace talks showed no breakthrough.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka amid prisoner exchange
June 30, 2026 drops to 30%6%
Ukrainian troops made advances in and near Kostyantynivka while Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners, signaling Ukrainian resilience and reducing market confidence in imminent Russian capture.
Russian drone attacks continue to inflict damage and casualties in Ukraine
May 31, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Persistent Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure throughout May 2026 maintained pressure on Ukraine but failed to decisively shift the front lines. This ongoing conflict contributed to the market’s reduced confidence in Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026, with prices falling to 10%.
ISW: Russian advance in Kostyantynivka stalls at under 10 % of city
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%9%
ISW said Russian forces were still stuck in the Kostyantynivka direction, with progress limited to less than 10 % of the city. This contributed to a dip in the September‑30 price (from 71 % on 2026‑05‑13 to 62 % on 2026‑05‑14).
Ukrainian forces report successful drone strike on Russian logistics hub
Ukrainian reports of a successful drone strike on a Russian logistics hub suggested growing Ukrainian capability to disrupt supply lines, further eroding confidence in Russia’s ability to sustain an advance on Kostyantynivka before year‑end.
Russian forces concentrate manpower near Kostyantynivka but control less than 10% of city
May 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Despite significant troop concentration and infiltration efforts, Russian forces control a small fraction of Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian counterattacks impeding advances, leading to market price declines for near-term capture.
Russian forces concentrate manpower near Kostyantynivka but control less than 10% of city
June 30, 2026 plunges to 23%38%
On May 14, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian forces concentrated significant manpower aiming to seize Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka but controlled less than 10% of the city, with Ukrainian counterattacks impeding advances. This sustained market skepticism about Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian officials claim capture of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Kremlin‑released video showed Gen. Valery Gerasimov reporting Russian control of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, temporarily boosting confidence in a December‑2026 capture as traders interpreted the claim as a sign of continued Russian momentum.
Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions east of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian shelling east of Kostyantynivka and infiltration missions, while Ukrainian forces maintained control in contested areas, reflecting a stalemate that influenced market uncertainty about near-term capture.
Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions east of Kostyantynivka amid stalled advances
Geolocated footage showed Russian shelling east of Kostyantynivka, but no significant Russian territorial control was observed, indicating stalled Russian advances and continued Ukrainian defense. This contributed to the market's cautious outlook on Russian capture prospects.
Zelenskyy names Ukraine’s head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff
December 31, 2026 drops to 75%5%
President Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, as his new chief of staff, signaling a focus on security and intelligence that may strengthen Ukraine’s defense and affect the likelihood of Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces launch successful counter‑offensive near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 drops to 9%14%
A reported Ukrainian counter‑offensive that reclaimed positions near Kostyantynivka lowered market confidence in a Russian capture before the end of May, driving the price sharply down.
ISW: Russian shelling east of Kostyantynivka shows no Russian positions on May 12, 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%38%
ISW’s May 12 assessment recorded Russian shelling of a Ukrainian position east of Kostyantynivka, indicating a lack of Russian foothold. The perception of stalled Russian progress drove the “June 30 2026” probability down sharply (‑38 pts to 29 %).
Ukrainian forces report successful counter‑offensive near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 drops to 8%5%
Ukrainian military statements highlighted a localized push that reclaimed positions around Kostyantynivka, further eroding market confidence that Russia would capture the town by the end of May.
Russia intensifies artillery attacks on Donbas towns including Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 drops to 7%13%
Russian military reports confirmed a surge in artillery bombardments across the Donbas region, with specific mentions of heavy fighting near Kostyantynivka, pushing market participants to lower the probability of a Russian capture by the end of May.
Trump claims Putin agreed to a one‑week pause on strikes against Kyiv
President Trump announced that Putin had consented to a temporary halt on attacks, but the pause was brief and quickly ended, leading traders to doubt any de‑escalation and further lower the probability of a delayed Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions and strike Russian troops near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and maintaining control around Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of advances. This reinforced Ukrainian defensive strength and contributed to declining market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Russian drone attack on Odesa kills three and wounds children
May 31, 2026 plunges to 7%49%
A heavy drone strike on Odesa highlighted Russia’s continued use of aerial bombardment, raising concerns about resource allocation and the sustainability of offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, pushing prices lower for later‑date outcomes.
ISW: Ukrainian strike on Russian servicemen near Kostyantynivka on May 11
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%16%
The May 11 ISW assessment described Ukrainian forces striking Russian servicemembers in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and noted continued Russian infiltration without holding ground, reinforcing market pessimism for the June‑30 outcome.
French navy detains captain of suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker
May 31, 2026 drops to 3%9%
France detained the captain of a tanker suspected of violating sanctions by shipping Russian oil, highlighting ongoing Western efforts to enforce sanctions and pressure Russia economically. This event underscored Western resolve, indirectly supporting Ukraine’s defense and reducing near-term Russian capture odds.
ISW says Russian offensive stalls near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%19%
ISW’s May 10 assessment highlighted that Russian gains around Kostyantynivka had stalled, causing the June 30 2026 probability to fall sharply to the low‑20s.
Russian missile attack flattens Kyiv apartment building, killing 24
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
A devastating Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building resulted in significant civilian casualties, demonstrating Russia's ongoing strategic targeting of Ukrainian urban centers. This event likely dampened optimism about Ukraine's defensive capabilities, affecting longer-term capture probabilities.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid continue amid peace talks
June 30, 2026 rises to 34%2%
Despite ongoing peace talks, Russia continued heavy drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, undermining ceasefire hopes and reducing market confidence in near-term Russian territorial gains including Kostyantynivka.
ISW: Russian gains near Kostyantynivka limited; Ukraine regains ground
September 30, 2026 jumps to 57%5%
ISW’s May‑10 2026 assessment noted that Russia’s spring‑summer offensive had yielded only limited gains near Kostyantynivka, while Ukraine had recaptured territory. The market’s “September 30 2026” price jumped from 52 % to 57 % on May 14, as traders reassessed the timeline for a possible capture.
Russia sets May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk; limited infiltration near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%28%
ISW reported a Russian infiltration mission into northeastern Kostyantynivka and a Russian deadline to reach Kramatorsk by May 30. The news of a limited Russian push and a hard‑deadline raised doubts about a June capture, pushing the June‑30 price from 58 % (Apr 1) to 30 % by early May.
Russian infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka met with Ukrainian counterattacks
May 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Russian forces conducted infiltration attempts in northeastern Kostyantynivka but faced Ukrainian resistance, limiting territorial gains and contributing to declining market confidence for near-term capture.
Russian military sets May 30 deadline to reach outskirts of Kramatorsk near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Russian command's deadline to reach Kramatorsk outskirts, near Kostyantynivka, indicated intensified efforts but also highlighted operational challenges, influencing market uncertainty and lowering short-term capture odds.
Russia sets May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk outskirts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
ISW reported that the Russian command set a May 30 deadline to reach the outskirts of Kramatorsk, signalling an aggressive timetable for the Fortress Belt. Traders raised the “September 30 2026” probability from 50 % to 63 % over the next weeks, anticipating a possible breakthrough before the year’s end.
Russian command sets May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk outskirts, redeploys forces
Russian military leadership ordered forces to reach Kramatorsk outskirts by May 30, including attacks near Kostyantynivka, while redeploying fresh battalions. This indicated continued Russian offensive intent but also highlighted operational challenges, influencing market uncertainty for near-term capture.
Russian infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka met with Ukrainian counterattacks
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka but faced effective Ukrainian counterattacks and air interdiction, limiting their ability to consolidate gains. This sustained low market confidence in Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka after infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 50%21%
Ukrainian counterattacks targeted Russian-occupied buildings in Kostyantynivka, demonstrating effective resistance and reducing market confidence in imminent Russian capture.
ISW: Russian infiltration in southern Kostyantynivka, no advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%41%
ISW’s assessment noted a Russian infiltration mission in southern Kostyantynivka with no confirmed gains. The lack of progress caused the "June 30, 2026" odds to fall sharply, from 61 % on 19 Feb to 20 % on 9 Jun.
Russian infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka fail to gain ground
June 30, 2026 drops to 63%10%
ISW’s May 8 assessment noted that Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka had failed to change the front line, while Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions. This setback triggered a market swing down for the June‑30 outcome (price fell from 73 % on May 6 to 63 % on May 8).
ISW releases geolocated footage of Russian shelling near Kostyantynivka on May 8
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%35%
Geolocated footage published on May 8 showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in the Kostyantynivka area, confirming that Russian troops still lacked a foothold. The confirmation of no Russian control pushed the market further down for the June‑30 and May‑31 contracts.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka area
May 31, 2026 plunges to 0%51%
In early May, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and assaults in and around Kostyantynivka but failed to secure significant gains. Ukrainian forces maintained positions and counterattacked, leading to a collapse in market confidence for capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian drones set fire to Russian oil depot in Volgograd
May 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
A Ukrainian drone strike hit an oil depot supplying Russian forces, highlighting Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia and prompting a sharp decline in the May‑31 outcome as the prospect of a rapid Russian advance dimmed.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions and assaults around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 59%4%
In early May, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and assaults within and around Kostyantynivka, including southern Novodmytrivka and southwestern outskirts, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions, reflecting ongoing contested control and contributing to market volatility.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and assaults around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and assaults within and around Kostyantynivka, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses and supporting market gains in longer-term capture probabilities.
TASS says Russia has full control of eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 75%3%
A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces cleared the village of Novodmytrivka and TASS later reported that Russian troops had “gained full control” of Kostyantynivka’s eastern part. The mixed but optimistic claims lifted the “December 31 2026” probability from ~78 % to the low‑80s.
Trump announces a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire including prisoner exchange
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine for three days, including a prisoner swap, signaling a temporary halt in hostilities. This event likely influenced a slight recovery in market confidence for the September 30, 2026 outcome, reflecting hopes for diplomatic progress.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission in southern Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 27%7%
Ongoing Russian activity in the city area sustained market uncertainty, preventing a clear resolution.
Russia announces May 8-9 ceasefire for Victory Day, threatens Kyiv if disrupted
Russia declared a two-day ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark Victory Day, warning of massive missile strikes on Kyiv if the ceasefire or celebrations were disrupted. This announcement was part of Russia's information and diplomatic strategy amid ongoing fighting.
Russian infiltration missions continue near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
September 30, 2026 rises to 59%3%
In early May 2026, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and assaults around Kostyantynivka but failed to make confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces maintained positions and struck Russian troops, indicating a stalemate in the area.
Ukrainian forces claim successful drone strike on Russian bomber base
June 30, 2026 drops to 48%7%
Reports of Ukrainian drones damaging Russian bomber assets suggested a weakening of Russia’s air capabilities, contributing to a modest decline in the June‑30, 2026 price from 55% to 48% the following day.
Trump announces a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire including prisoner exchange
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
President Trump announced a 3-day ceasefire agreed by Russia and Ukraine, including a prisoner exchange, which could temporarily reduce hostilities and affect market confidence in the near-term capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On May 8, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in northeastern Kostyantynivka during Russian infiltration missions, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian control. This reinforced market doubts about imminent Russian capture.
Russian infiltration missions continue near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian counterattacks
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On May 7, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, but Ukrainian forces struck back effectively, maintaining control and preventing significant Russian advances, which kept market prices low for near-term capture.
ISW: Ukrainian drones intensify strikes, Russian gains stall near Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%1%
The May 7 ISW assessment highlighted intensified Ukrainian drone strikes that disrupted Russian logistics and noted no territorial advances by Russia. The apparent Ukrainian superiority caused market confidence in a December 2026 capture to fall further, moving the price from 78 % to 77 % on 2026‑05‑07.
Ukrainian drone strikes intensify, Russian infiltrations stall near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 62%4%
The ISW February‑May report highlighted intensified Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka, signalling a stalemate. This coincided with a small rise in the September‑30 market from 58 % to 62 %.
Abu Dhabi peace talks break down as Russia rejects Ukrainian demands
May 31, 2026 drops to 8%11%
Negotiators from the U.S., Ukraine and Russia failed to reach a breakthrough, with Russia insisting on full control of eastern territories. The diplomatic setback triggered a sharp fall in all outcome prices, especially the May‑31 deadline.
Ukraine says Russia set May 30 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%12%
Ukrainian officials cited a Russian deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of May, signaling an imminent push. The market responded by raising the September‑30‑2026 and December‑31‑2026 odds, with the September price climbing from 56 % to 68 % over the following week.
ISW: Russian infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka fail to change frontlines
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
The ISW assessment noted continued Russian infiltration attempts but also Ukrainian drone strikes that stalled Russian gains. Traders interpreted the mixed picture as a modest rise for the December‑31 date and a drop for the June‑30 date.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions and assaults near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 32%2%
Russian forces continued infiltration missions and assaults in and around Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions. This ongoing fighting kept market expectations mixed, with some short-term capture odds declining.
Russian forces fail to capture Kostyantynivka by May deadline but make tactical gains
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Despite missing the May 2026 deadline, Russian forces made tactical advances in Kostyantynivka, continuing infiltration missions and combat operations, which maintained market uncertainty but showed progress.
Ukrainian drone strike kills 12 mineworkers in Dnipro
A Russian drone attack in Dnipro that killed dozens of workers underscored the ongoing intensity of hostilities and suggested that Russian forces were still capable of striking deep into Ukrainian territory, raising concerns about the security of front‑line towns like Kostyantynivka.
Russian general Fanil Sarvarov killed in Moscow car bomb, blamed on Ukraine
The assassination of a senior Russian general heightened tensions and suggested possible retaliatory actions by Russia on the front lines, reinforcing market sentiment that Russian forces would intensify operations near Kostyantynivka.
Russian troop desertions strain effort to capture Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%26%
A Cryptobriefing report highlighted a surge in Russian troop desertions, casting doubt on Russia’s ability to sustain offensives around Kostyantynivka. The market’s price for the May 31 contract collapsed from 28 % to 2 % within days, reflecting the perceived loss of Russian manpower.
U.S. gives Ukraine and Russia a June deadline for peace talks
September 30, 2026 surges to 56%22%
President Zelenskyy announced a U.S.‑imposed June deadline for a settlement, increasing diplomatic pressure on Moscow and causing a short‑term rally for the September‑30 outcome as traders saw a possible slowdown in Russian offensives.
U.S. President Trump accuses Ukraine of holding up peace deal
September 30, 2026 rises to 51%1%
Trump claimed Ukraine President Zelenskyy is an obstacle in U.S.-led peace talks, a statement that Russia's Kremlin acknowledged, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian and Russian delegations meet in Abu Dhabi for peace talks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
The commencement of high‑level talks in Abu Dhabi offered a brief optimism, temporarily lifting the September‑30, 2026 price from 50% to 56% before subsequent Russian attacks reversed the gain.
Ukraine announces ceasefire from May 5-6 amid stalled peace talks
Ukraine declared a ceasefire starting midnight May 5-6, urging Russia to reciprocate, signaling a temporary pause in hostilities. This ceasefire was separate from Russia's later announced May 8-9 ceasefire and reflected ongoing diplomatic efforts amid the conflict.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
May 31, 2026 drops to 15%12%
Russian forces continued infiltration attempts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, adapting tactics such as night attacks with anti-thermal ponchos. Ukrainian forces struck Russian servicemembers in western Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing contested control and stalemate, which contributed to further decline in near-term capture market prices.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts to capture Kostyantynivka in April 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 36%16%
Russian forces failed to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 despite intensified assaults, with Ukrainian troops repelling attacks and maintaining control over key areas. This failure caused a drop in market confidence for capture by June 30, 2026.
Russian drone strike kills 12 miners on bus in Dnipro
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
A Russian drone hit a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro, killing at least a dozen. The high‑profile civilian casualty heightened concerns about Russian willingness to target non‑military sites, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence for all capture dates.
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Kostyantynivka after Russian infiltration attempts
May 31, 2026 drops to 10%9%
Ukrainian troops made gains in eastern Kostyantynivka, repelling Russian infiltration efforts and demonstrating resilient defense, which sharply decreased market confidence in capture by May 31, 2026.
Russian forces continue offensive in Kostyantynivka direction but fail to advance
June 30, 2026 drops to 47%14%
Despite ongoing offensive operations, Russian forces did not make significant gains as Ukrainian counterattacks held the line, causing a decline in short-term market confidence for capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces fail to advance as Ukrainian counterattacks continue near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 78%2%
Despite intensified Russian activity and multiple attacks in late April and early May, Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks that prevented Russian territorial gains. This dynamic contributed to a mixed market reaction with some recovery in confidence for later capture dates.
Fierce fighting continues within Kostyantynivka as Russian offensive develops
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces launched a series of strikes and continued their offensive within the boundaries of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian resistance remained strong, preventing decisive Russian gains. This prolonged conflict and lack of clear Russian breakthrough influenced the market's downward price movement.
Zelenskyy warns Europe of stalled support as Russian pressure mounts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Zelenskyy’s criticism of delayed European aid underscored Ukraine’s weakening position, reinforcing market sentiment that Russia could capture Kostyantynivka before year‑end.
Russian mechanized assaults near Chasiv Yar fail to yield gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 78%1%
Russian forces conducted two mechanized assaults near Chasiv Yar northeast of Kostyantynivka that did not result in significant tactical gains, contributing to market stabilization and a slight decline in the December 31, 2026 outcome price as Ukrainian resistance remained strong.
ISW Assessment Indicates Ukrainian Forces Thwarted Russia's Spring Offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 78%2%
An assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Ukrainian forces successfully blunted Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, leading to Russia's first net territorial loss since 2024 and lowering expectations of a year-end capture.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
Russian troops pressed offensives in the Kostyantynivka direction but failed to make significant advances due to effective Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces have been infiltrating the outskirts since late 2025 but have not achieved operational breakthroughs.
Russian offensive operations continue near Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
May 31, 2026 plunges to 26%25%
Russian forces continued attacks without significant gains as Ukrainian counterattacks held the line, leading to market price declines for near-term capture probabilities.
Russian milblogger’s claim of clearing Novodmytrivka disputed by ISW
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces had cleared the village of Novodmytrivka, but ISW cross‑checked and found no territorial change. The discrepancy highlighted Russian overstatement, causing a modest further decline in the market’s confidence for a capture.
Russian drone strike hits Dnipro bus, killing 12 miners
May 31, 2026 drops to 7%14%
The deadly drone attack on a civilian bus in Dnipro raised fears of escalating Russian targeting of infrastructure ahead of upcoming peace talks, pushing the May‑31, 2026 price sharply down from 21% to 7% over two days.
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations meet on security framework in Miami
December 31, 2026 plunges to 72%16%
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami for talks on a security framework, with both parties agreeing that real progress toward any agreement depends on Russia's readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace. This diplomatic activity provided some market stabilization but did not resolve the underlying conflict.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Halt Russian Advances in Kostyantynivka Direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%2%
Despite continuous offensive operations, Russian forces failed to make progress in the Kostyantynivka direction due to active Ukrainian counterattacks.
ISW says Russian offensive stalls around Kostyantynivka on May 4
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%38%
The ISW assessment noted that Russian troops continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction but made no territorial gain and were pushed back by Ukrainian counter‑attacks. The report undercut expectations that Russia could capture the city, driving the market down sharply for the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes.
Russian forces fail to make significant gains in Kostyantynivka despite assaults
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%8%
Russian forces continued offensive operations on May 4 but did not achieve meaningful progress as Ukrainian counterattacks held firm. This stalemate contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture by June 30 and May 31, 2026.
Russian offensive stalls near Kostyantynivka as Ukrainian counterattacks hold
May 31, 2026 plunges to 25%38%
Despite ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces failed to advance due to effective Ukrainian counterattacks, indicating a stalemate and reducing near-term capture likelihood.
Russian forces intensify offensive near Kostyantynivka amid fierce Ukrainian resistance
September 30, 2026 rises to 53%3%
Russian brigades pressed near Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian forces counterattacking, creating volatile frontline conditions and increasing market uncertainty about the timing of capture.
Guardian: Russia inches toward Kostyantynivka, tries to breach eastern “fortress belt”
September 30, 2026 rises to 66%4%
The Guardian noted that Russian forces were inching toward Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the perception of an imminent capture and pushing the September‑30, 2026 probability higher (from 62 % on June 1 to 66 % on June 3).
DeepState map shows Russian control limited to a narrow perimeter
June 30, 2026 drops to 81%8%
A Reuters‑based battlefield‑mapping update confirmed that Russian forces had not yet broken the defensive line, keeping the market’s odds for a September capture modest and the June‑30 probability low.
Russian offensive momentum slows
June 30, 2026 drops to 33%5%
Reports indicated that Russian forces were struggling to maintain the pace of their offensive, leading to a significant decline in the likelihood of capturing Kostyantynivka by mid-year.
Ukrainian army chief warns of ramped‑up Russian activity around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
General Syrskyi said Russian forces had noticeably increased activity in the Kostyantynivka direction during April, signalling a tightening Russian deadline. The statement raised market expectations that Russia would succeed before the end‑year, pushing the December‑2026 probability down and the June‑2026 probability up.
Ukrainian chief notes increased Russian activity near Kostyantynivka in April
September 30, 2026 surges to 80%30%
Syrskyi disclosed an uptick in Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka direction during April, suggesting Russian forces were still massing. The market’s odds for the September 30, 2026 deadline rose from 50 % to 80 % by mid‑June.
Russian troops reach within one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Reports indicated Russian troops were within one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, signaling a tightening siege and raising market expectations for capture by later dates. This proximity caused a rise in the September 30, 2026 outcome price.
Ukrainian chief says Russian activity surged near Kostyantynivka in April
December 31, 2026 rises to 85%3%
Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief General Syrskyi reported a noticeable uptick in Russian activity around Kostyantynivka in April, signalling that Moscow was intensifying its push. That warning coincided with a modest rise in the December 31 2026 probability (from 82 % to 85 %).
Ukrainian Commander reports increased Russian activity near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%15%
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported increased Russian military activity in the Kostyantynivka direction in April 2026, indicating ongoing heavy fighting and resistance. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term capture probabilities.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Kostyantynivka amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 dips to 78%1%
Russian troops intensified assaults, carrying out 83 attacks in the Kostyantynivka sector and inching closer to the city, but Ukrainian forces repelled persistent infiltration attempts, maintaining control of the area. This ongoing stalemate contributed to a slight decline in market confidence.
Ukrainian Commander reports intensified Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka in April
December 31, 2026 dips to 75%4%
General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces increased their activity and launched 83 attacks in the Kostyantynivka direction in late April to early May, indicating heightened combat intensity and pressure on the city.
Ukrainian forces report increased Russian activity near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%34%
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported increased Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka direction in April 2026, indicating ongoing fierce fighting and uncertainty about Russian capture. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for capture by June 30, 2026.
Russia fails to seize Kostyantynivka by May deadline
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%28%
ISW reported that Russian forces had missed the self‑imposed deadline of May 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka, indicating a slowdown in the offensive. The market’s probability for the June 30, 2026 outcome fell sharply from 61 % to 33 % in the days that followed.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian stronghold resists
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Russian troops advanced toward the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city, reinforcing the contested nature of the battle and affecting market perceptions of near-term capture.
Russian troops inch toward Kostyantynivka outskirts amid fierce fighting
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Russian forces advanced closer to Kostyantynivka, engaging in street-by-street clashes, raising concerns about supply lines and the strategic importance of the city, which increased market expectations for a mid-year capture.
Ukraine says Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka surged to 83 in a week
September 30, 2026 surges to 84%20%
General Syrskyi told Reuters that Russian assault attempts in the Kostyantynivka sector had risen sharply in April, with 83 small‑unit attacks in one week. The acknowledgement of an intensified Russian offensive lifted confidence in a near‑term capture, contributing to the steep rise of the “September 30, 2026” price curve during May.
Russian drone attack kills 3 and wounds children in Odesa amid calls for faster diplomacy
May 31, 2026 drops to 5%8%
A heavy Russian drone bombardment killed civilians in Odesa, including children, as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy urged accelerated peace talks and more sanctions on Russia. This event likely contributed to the sharp decline in market confidence for Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian chief of staff notes surge in Russian activity around Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 surges to 69%20%
General Syrskyi reported a noticeable increase in Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka direction during April 2026. The heightened Russian pressure was reflected in a modest upward shift of the “July 31 2026” odds from the high‑40 % to the high‑60 % range over the following weeks.
Zelenskyy signals openness to demilitarized zone in Donbas
May 31, 2026 drops to 9%10%
President Zelenskyy's public openness to a demilitarized zone in the Donbas as part of a peace plan significantly reduced the perceived likelihood of a full Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by the May and June deadlines.
Russian troops inch toward Kostiantynivka outskirts
September 30, 2026 surges to 71%21%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were inching toward the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, signalling a fresh Russian push. The news boosted confidence that Russia could capture the city, pushing the "September 30, 2026" market odds up from 50 % to 71 % by 9 Jun 2026.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Kostyantynivka; Russian forces claim control of Novodmytrivka north of city
September 30, 2026 plunges to 34%16%
On May 2, Russia's Defence Ministry announced control of Novodmytrivka just north of Kostyantynivka, with Russian troops advancing on the north and south of the city. Ukrainian forces denied losing control of Kostyantynivka itself, maintaining defensive positions. This ongoing stalemate contributed to market uncertainty and a low probability of Russian capture by September 30, 2026.
Ukrainian chief says Russian forces ramped up activity near Kostyantynivka in April
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%11%
General Syrskyi announced that Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka direction had markedly increased in April, suggesting a renewed push. This news coincided with a sharp rise in the “September 30, 2026” probability from ~50 % to ~61 % on 11 May.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Ukrainian stronghold Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%6%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were only a kilometre from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, indicating a close proximity of Russian forces and prompting a rise in the “September 30, 2026” odds from ~55 % (early May) to ~61 % (mid‑May).
Russian troops reach outskirts of Kostyantynivka, inching closer to city
Russian forces advanced to within approximately one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, signaling increased pressure and raising market expectations for capture by late 2026.
Russian Troops Reach Outskirts of Ukrainian Stronghold Kostiantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Ukraine's top military officials and mapping projects confirmed that Russian forces had inched to within one kilometer of Kostiantynivka's southern outskirts, raising the immediate threat level.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
July 31, 2026 plunges to 5%44%
On May 2, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief reported increased Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka direction, but Ukrainian forces successfully repelled infiltration attempts, maintaining control. This led to a drop in near-term capture probabilities.
Russian forces control area just north of Kostyantynivka but city remains contested
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%3%
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed control of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian mapping showed Russian control limited to about one kilometer from the city's southern outskirts, indicating no full capture and sustaining market skepticism.
Reuters: Russian troops within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts on May 2, 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%12%
Reuters reported Russian troops inching to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, signalling that Russia was finally establishing a foothold. The news boosted confidence in a near‑term capture, lifting the “September 30 2026” odds sharply (+12 pts).
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts on Kostyantynivka outskirts
May 31, 2026 drops to 15%12%
Ukrainian troops reported repelling persistent Russian infiltration attempts on the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, maintaining defensive positions and preventing Russian footholds. This ongoing resistance contributed to the market's sharp decline in probability for Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Russian troops inch to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Reuters reported Russian troops only 1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, a concrete proximity that shifted market expectations toward a June‑30 capture, reflected in the price dip that month.
Ukrainian C‑in‑C says Russian activity surged in Kostyantynivka in April
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Syrskyi announced that Russian activity in the Kostyantynivka sector had noticeably increased in April, prompting traders to treat the May deadline as missed and push the June‑30 probability lower.
Russia’s troops inch toward Kostiantynivka, aiming for a foothold
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%4%
The Guardian reported that Russian troops were inching toward Kostiantynivka, describing a new Russian push to establish a foothold on the city’s southern outskirts. The story raised market expectations that Russia might capture the city before year‑end, driving the December 31, 2026 probability up from the low‑90s to a peak of 95 % on 9 Jan 2026.
Ukrainian commander says Russian activity spikes around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
General Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russian forces had noticeably increased activity in the Kostyantynivka direction in April, signalling a potential breakthrough. The market reacted with a sharp rise for the September‑30, 2026 outcome (from 50 % to 54 % on May 4).
Reuters: Russian troops close to Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%4%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were inching to within one kilometre of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, a clear sign of imminent capture and driving the Dec‑31 probability sharply down while lifting the Sep‑30 odds.
Russian troops close to Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, Reuters reports
September 30, 2026 rises to 58%2%
Reuters mapped Russian forces within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, indicating a very close advance. The market jumped for the September‑30, 2026 outcome (from 56 % on May 6 to 58 % on May 8).
Russian troops inch closer to Kostyantynivka outskirts amid fierce fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%1%
By early May 2026, Russian forces were reported to be close to the outskirts of Kostyantynivka but had not secured the city, reflecting ongoing intense combat and limited territorial gains, which corresponded with a decline in market confidence for capture by year-end.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Ukraine’s stronghold Kostyantynivka, Ukraine says it still controls the city
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
Reuters reported that fighting had reached the outskirts of Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian units still held the city, undermining Russian capture expectations and driving the “May 31, 2026” price down from 51 % to 4 % within a month.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults, fighting reaches outskirts of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%35%
Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults throughout March and April 2026, maintaining control over key areas including the central railway station. Fighting reached the city's outskirts but Russian forces failed to capture it by the May deadline, causing market prices for near-term capture to decline.
Ukrainian C‑in‑C says Russian activity surged around Kostyantynivka in April
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%6%
General Syrskyi publicly noted a noticeable increase in Russian activity around Kostyantynivka in April 2026. The statement signalled that Russian forces were still massing, nudging the September‑2026 probability upward from 55 % to 61 % (recorded on 11 May).
Russia inches toward Kostyantynivka as Ukraine’s top army official warns of a foothold
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%7%
A Guardian briefing reported that Russian troops were “inching towards” Kostyantynivka, a narrative that lifted market expectations for a capture before the end of September, pushing the September‑30 probability upward.
Russian troops reach outskirts of Kostyantynivka, inching closer to city
May 31, 2026 jumps to 63%12%
Russian forces advanced to within about one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, signaling increased pressure on this strategic city. This development raised concerns about a potential imminent capture, temporarily supporting market confidence in near-term capture dates.
Russian troops inching toward Kostiantynivka but repelled in 83 assaults
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were only inching toward the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, with Ukraine’s top army official saying 83 assaults had been repelled. The limited progress and heavy Russian casualties signaled a low probability of capture, driving the market down sharply toward the May‑31 outcome.
Mapping project shows Russian troops a kilometre from Kostyantynivka’s southern edge
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%7%
Reuters reported DeepState mapping that Russian forces were within a kilometre of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, a development that lifted the market’s confidence for a September capture.
Ukrainian army chief reports Russian troops inching toward Kostyantynivka outskirts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Ukraine's top army official stated that Russian forces were pushing closer to Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure on the city and raising market expectations for a mid-year capture.
Russian troops control area one kilometre from southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 jumps to 6%5%
Close Russian proximity to the city increased capture risk, causing price to rise temporarily.
Russian troops approach outskirts of Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian defenses hold
Russian troops were reported inching toward Kostyantynivka's outskirts, attempting to establish footholds near the city, but Ukrainian forces maintained strong defense, limiting Russian advances. This maintained uncertainty about a near-term capture.
Russian forces inch to within 1 km of Kostiantynivka’s southern edge
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were only a kilometre from Kostiantynivka’s southern outskirts, a sign that Russia was closing in on the city and raising the market’s probability of a capture by the end‑year dates.
Reuters: Russian troops inch to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were only about one kilometre from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, a modest gain that briefly lifted market confidence for the December‑31 contract before the subsequent ISW reports eroded optimism.
Russian forces inch toward Kostyantynivka outskirts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 67%9%
Reuters reported Russian troops inching toward the city’s outskirts, indicating a new Russian push. This boosted the September 30 2026 price while pulling the June 30 2026 price lower as traders saw the timeline extending.
Russian troops inch closer to Kostyantynivka outskirts amid heavy Ukrainian defense
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On May 2, reports indicated Russian forces were attempting to establish footholds near Kostyantynivka's heavily defended outskirts, but Ukrainian forces continued to repel persistent infiltration tactics, reflecting the stalemate and contributing to very low market prices for capture by May 31, 2026.
Russian Forces Reach Outskirts of Kostyantynivka Using Infiltration Tactics
December 31, 2026 rises to 78%1%
Russian troops managed to inch within one kilometer of the southern outskirts of the heavily fortified city, though Ukrainian forces continued to repel persistent infantry assaults.
Russian Troops Inch Toward Outskirts of Kostiantynivka Stronghold
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Ukraine's top military official reported that Russian forces were slowly advancing toward the heavily fortified city of Kostyantynivka, carrying out dozens of small-group infantry assaults.
Russian troops reach outskirts of Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian stronghold
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Russian forces advanced to within approximately one kilometer of the city's southern outskirts, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders but without full capture. This proximity caused some market optimism for medium-term capture dates.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Kostyantynivka; Russia claims control of nearby Novodmytrivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 27%10%
Russian Defense Ministry announced control of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka and ongoing advances on city outskirts, signaling tactical gains but not full capture, causing mixed market reactions.
Fighting reaches outskirts of Kostyantynivka, Russian troops inch closer
May 31, 2026 drops to 9%11%
Russian troops advanced to within about one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, attempting to establish footholds near the city. Despite this, Ukrainian forces maintained control of key areas, sustaining market uncertainty and a low probability of capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief reports increased Russian activity near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 47%14%
On May 2, Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported a noticeable increase in Russian military activity around Kostyantynivka in April 2026, indicating ongoing intense fighting but no decisive capture, causing some market uncertainty.
Russian troops inch toward Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts
May 31, 2026 drops to 21%7%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were inching toward the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with 83 assaults recorded that week. The news triggered a sharp swing upward for the May 31 and September 30 contracts as traders reassessed the likelihood of a capture before the end of May.
Ukrainian commander says Russia amped up assaults on Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
ISW reported that Russian forces noticeably increased activity in the Kostyantynivka direction in April, and Ukrainian Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed the heightened assaults on 2 May. The report raised expectations that Russia could capture the city by May, lifting the market’s “September 30 2026” probability from 50 % to the low‑50s.
Russian troops inch closer to Kostyantynivka outskirts amid fierce fighting
September 30, 2026 rises to 57%3%
Russian forces advanced to within about one kilometer of Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, attempting to establish footholds near heavily defended areas. Ukrainian officials reported increased Russian activity, sustaining market interest in medium-term capture prospects.
Russian troops inch to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern edge
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Reuters reported that Russian troops were only a kilometre from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, suggesting a possible breakthrough. The news pushed the market for the September‑30 and June‑30 outcomes up sharply (May 2 → May 6 price rise from 50 % to 56 % for Sep‑30, and from 61 % to 73 % for Jun‑30).
Russian troops inch closer to Kostyantynivka outskirts amid heavy fighting
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%34%
Russian forces advanced near the city outskirts but failed to capture it by the May deadline, causing market confidence in early capture dates to drop significantly.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts near Kostyantynivka outskirts
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%27%
Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka throughout March and early May 2026, maintaining control over key areas and preventing Russian capture by the May deadline. This caused market prices for near-term capture to decline.
Russian troops inch to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern edge
Reuters reported that Russian troops had moved to within one kilometre of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, signalling a tangible Russian foothold and prompting a short‑term rise in the probability of a December capture while also worsening the June outlook.
Ukrainian army official reports Russian troops inching toward Kostyantynivka outskirts
June 30, 2026 drops to 32%6%
On May 2, 2026, Ukraine's top army official stated that Russian troops were attempting to establish a foothold near Kostyantynivka using infiltration tactics, with persistent assaults ongoing. This indicated continued Russian pressure but no decisive capture yet.
Fighting Reaches Outskirts of Ukrainian Stronghold Kostiantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 32%8%
Ukraine's top army official reported that Russian troops were inching toward Kostiantynivka, establishing a foothold about one kilometer from the southern outskirts, confirming that the battle had reached the city's gates.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka after infiltration missions
May 31, 2026 plunges to 9%22%
Geolocated footage on April 30 and May 1 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Berestok and southeastern Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration attempts. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian progress, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, escalating conflict tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%15%
The assassination of a senior Russian general in Moscow heightened tensions and underscored the ongoing covert conflict dynamics. This event may have contributed to uncertainty in the market about the pace of Russian advances, affecting probabilities for near-term capture.
Russian summer offensive makes only modest gains near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 5%16%
BBC coverage highlighted a Russian summer offensive that made only limited gains near Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the perception that Russian forces were unable to achieve a decisive breakthrough before the end of May. This helped keep the May‑31 probability low.
Ukrainian forces maintain control over central Kostyantynivka and repel Russian assaults
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Despite Russian infiltration reaching the zinc plant, Ukrainian troops held central positions and repelled assaults throughout March and April, leading to sharp declines in short-term capture odds.
Ukrainian officials confirm Russian seizure of Kostyantynivka zinc plant
June 30, 2026 drops to 47%13%
Ukrainian officials warned that Russian forces had seized the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka, raising doubts about a swift capture and coinciding with a sharp drop in the June‑30 market probability.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kostyantynivka on April 30
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
Ukrainian officials reported that they had struck Russian positions in northern Berestok and southeastern Kostyantynivka, confirming ongoing Ukrainian defensive successes. The continued Ukrainian pressure contributed to the market’s slide toward the May‑31 low.
Russian drone strikes cause major blackouts in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
Russian drone attacks severely damaged Ukraine's power grid, causing blackouts and civilian hardship, demonstrating Russia's continued offensive capabilities. This sustained military pressure likely contributed to declining market confidence in near-term capture dates.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
Geolocated footage and reports indicated Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka, repelling infiltration missions and maintaining control despite Russian attacks. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian progress, impacting market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
Car bomb kills Russian General Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
The assassination of Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, a senior Russian training commander, raised concerns about Ukrainian covert capabilities and suggested possible Russian operational setbacks, pushing down odds for later capture dates.
Russia claims control of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Russian Defense Ministry announced control of Novodmytrivka just north of Kostyantynivka, signaling incremental territorial gains. However, the city itself remained contested, reflecting limited progress and influencing market perceptions of the capture timeline.
Russian troops reach outskirts of Kostyantynivka, controlling area near southern outskirts
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Reports indicated Russian forces controlled territory about one kilometer from Kostyantynivka's southern outskirts, signaling pressure on the city but no full capture, reflecting ongoing stalemate and attrition.
Russian military announces plans for accelerated offensive in Donetsk
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%16%
Despite ongoing talks, the Russian Defense Ministry announced plans to accelerate its offensive in the Donetsk region, which initially caused market fluctuations before the broader trend of declining confidence in a quick capture took hold.
Ukrainian forces report heavy drone strike on logistics hub
May 31, 2026 plunges to 22%24%
A major Russian drone attack on Ukrainian supply lines raised concerns about the ability to defend front‑line towns like Kostyantynivka, prompting a further drop in capture probabilities.
Russian drone strike hits civilian bus in Dnipro, killing 12
May 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
The deadly attack underscored Russia’s willingness to intensify strikes ahead of peace talks, pushing market participants to lower the probability of a Russian capture before the end of May.
Sustained Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka met with Ukrainian resistance
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Reports detailed numerous Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian defenders repelling assaults, indicating ongoing fierce fighting but no decisive Russian breakthrough, influencing market prices downward for near-term capture.
Russian military command sets May 2026 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
In late April, Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian military command set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by May 2026, signaling intensified Russian offensive efforts. This raised market expectations for a near-term capture, reflected in price movements for longer-dated outcomes.
U.S.‑brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid renewed Russian attacks
Negotiations in Abu Dhabi were delayed after fresh Russian missile and drone strikes, signaling that diplomatic avenues were stalling and that Russia was likely to continue its military push, pushing the market lower.
Russian Army begins flanking operation against Kostyantynivka, fighting in city and outskirts
On April 27, reports indicated Russian troops attacking on a broad front around Kostyantynivka, enveloping outskirts from three sides and advancing up to 4 kilometers in ridges. This escalation suggested intensified Russian efforts to capture the city, influencing market perceptions of the likelihood of capture by year-end.
Russian regulator blocks FaceTime and Snapchat, citing security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 75%14%
The crackdown on communications was seen as part of Russia’s broader internal security tightening, diverting resources from frontline operations and dampening expectations of rapid territorial gains.
Russian forces move to encircle Kostyantynivka, capturing Illinivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 81%3%
Russian troops advanced west of Kostyantynivka, capturing the village of Illinivka and attempting to encircle the city, which caused a temporary trough and peak in the December 31, 2026 price as the market reacted to intensified military pressure.
Russian army begins flanking operation against Kostyantynivka, fighting in city and outskirts
May 31, 2026 plunges to 26%25%
Russian troops launched a broad front attack and flanking maneuvers around Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses and briefly boosting market optimism for capture by mid-year.
Russia restricts FaceTime and Snapchat, citing terrorist use
Russia’s crackdown on communication apps reflects a broader tightening of internal security and a focus on controlling information flow during intensified military operations, indirectly supporting the war effort around Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces advance on Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes
June 30, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Reports indicated Russian troops made advances around Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk, signaling increased offensive pressure and raising short-term capture expectations, temporarily supporting market prices for mid-year capture.
Ukrainian General Syrskyi reports increased Russian activity near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%11%
On April 26, Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi disclosed a noticeable increase in Russian military activity around Kostyantynivka, signaling a renewed push by Russian forces. This news raised market expectations for capture by later dates, particularly September 30, 2026.
Russian forces capture Illinivka near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
On April 26-28, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the seizure of Illinivka southwest of Kostyantynivka, signaling some territorial gains. However, Ukrainian forces continued to repel assaults and conducted strikes on Russian positions, maintaining contested control. This mixed situation contributed to a market decline to around 79%-80%.
Russian Forces Fail to Capture Kostyantynivka by End of April Deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 78%3%
Russia's planned offensive to seize the strategic stronghold of Kostyantynivka by the end of April failed, with troops only managing to infiltrate buildings on the city's outskirts.
Russian forces advance west of Kostyantynivka, capturing Illinivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 59%9%
By late April, Russian troops advanced west of Kostyantynivka, capturing the village of Illinivka, indicating incremental territorial gains and increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses, which influenced market confidence in medium-term capture dates.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in and around Kostyantynivka after infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 dips to 78%1%
Ukrainian counterattacks on April 25-26 targeted Russian infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka, preventing significant Russian advances and maintaining the contested status of the city. This contributed to the continued decline in market confidence for a December 2026 capture.
ISW: Russian infiltrations continue in Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%26%
ISW’s April 26 assessment noted continued Russian infiltration attempts but no substantive territorial gains, signaling a slowdown after the earlier surge. Traders interpreted this as a negative signal for a June capture, contributing to the decline of the “June 30, 2026” odds from 61 % (19 Feb) to 35 % (19 Jun).
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%11%
A Medium post reported that Russian forces were advancing in Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes, prompting a short‑term rally in the market as traders saw tangible forward movement toward the city.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration missions
July 31, 2026 drops to 44%5%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in and around Kostyantynivka after Russian infiltration missions, indicating active contested control and slowing Russian advances. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term capture by July 31, 2026.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Russian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk directions, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This contributed to a rise in market confidence for capture by September 30, 2026.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka but make no significant gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
Russian troops intensified infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka but failed to achieve tactically significant advances, as Ukrainian forces struck back effectively. This stalemate likely caused a slight decline in market confidence for capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes
May 31, 2026 drops to 22%9%
A Medium post highlighted renewed Russian advances on the Kostyantynivka front, noting increased artillery and infantry pressure. Traders responded with a drop in the “May 31 2026” odds, moving from 31 % to 22 % that day.
Russian forces conduct multiple infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
On April 25-26, Russian forces continued infiltration attempts in northeastern and southwestern Kostyantynivka and its southern outskirts, but Ukrainian forces struck back effectively. This sustained pressure indicated ongoing fighting but no decisive Russian control, contributing to market uncertainty about near-term capture.
Ukrainian Forces Counterattack and Advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances and successful counterattacks in the tactical area, demonstrating active resistance and pushing back against Russian claims of control.
Russian troops capture trench system, approach key highway east of Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces had captured a trench system and reached the Bakhmut‑Pokrovsk highway at the end of December 2025 and continued advancing in early 2026, indicating a steady but slow Russian buildup. This reinforced expectations of a later capture, pushing the December‑31 price down from 89 % to 88 % (priceBefore: 89, priceAfter: 88).
Ukrainian forces repel Russian motor‑assault near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 55%16%
The ISW assessment reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault in the Kostyantynivka direction, while Russian troops continued infiltration missions. The repulse of a Russian assault lowered confidence that Russia would capture the city, driving the June‑30 market down from 71 % to 55 % that week.
Ukrainian forces advance east of Kostyantynivka; Russian infiltration missions continue
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%1%
Geolocated footage on April 23 and 24 showed Ukrainian advances east of Kostyantynivka and strikes on Russian positions after infiltration missions, while Russian forces continued assaults and glide bomb strikes. This indicated a stalemate with active combat but no decisive Russian capture, leading to market price around 82%-83%.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Ukrainian troops made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, countering Russian offensives and maintaining defensive positions. This bolstered market sentiment against near-term Russian capture and contributed to price declines for earlier capture dates.
Ukrainian brigade posts anti‑drone net footage around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
Videos showing Ukrainian troops installing anti‑drone nets and engaging Russian drones highlighted intensified fighting and Russian pressure on the city’s outskirts. The visual evidence coincided with a modest rise in the “September 30 2026” odds from 50 % to 55 % in early May.
Intense fighting pushes Russian units deeper into Kostyantynivka on 24 April
September 30, 2026 jumps to 58%6%
Pravda‑Ukraine reported a surge in fighting around Kostyantynivka on 24 April, with Russian assault detachments making “significant advances” in the southwestern part of the city; the market responded with a rise in the September‑30 probability.
ISW: Ukrainian forces advance near Kostyantynivka, Russian infiltration limited
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%26%
ISW reported Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area and a Russian infiltration mission, indicating that Russian momentum had stalled. The market reacted with a sharp decline for the June‑30‑2026 contract, dropping from 48 % on April 5 to 22 % by June 4.
Ukrainian forces advance east of Kostyantynivka as Russian infiltration intensifies
September 30, 2026 jumps to 71%9%
ISW noted fresh Ukrainian advances east of Kostyantynivka and a Russian infiltration mission, signalling renewed fighting. The market pushed the September‑30 price upward (from 62 % on 2026‑04‑21 to 71 % on 2026‑04‑24).
ISW: Russian infiltration continues around Kostyantynivka, no major advances
June 30, 2026 dips to 48%3%
The April 24 assessment noted continued Russian infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka with no decisive ground gains. The lack of progress helped keep the “June 30 2026” odds low (around 48 % on 2026‑04‑25) before they began to fall later in May.
Ukrainian advances east of Kostyantynivka and ongoing Russian assaults reported
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%6%
Geolocated footage and reports showed Ukrainian forces advancing east of Kostyantynivka while Russian forces continued infantry and armored assaults, indicating a contested frontline and preventing Russian capture, pushing market prices down further.
Russian forces continue assaults near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%7%
Despite ongoing mechanized and motorized assaults by Russian forces near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces maintained control of key positions and repelled attacks, indicating stalled Russian progress. This sustained stalemate contributed to a further decline in market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Zelenskyy rejects U.S. compromise proposal for Donetsk
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
President Zelenskyy publicly rejected a U.S.-backed compromise that would have involved Ukraine withdrawing from the Donetsk region to create a demilitarized zone, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for near-term Russian gains.
Russian shelling east of Kostyantynivka confirms stalled advances
December 31, 2026 drops to 85%5%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions east of Kostyantynivka, confirming that Russian gains had stalled. The market for the December‑31 outcome slipped from 90 % to 85 % as traders reassessed the longer‑term capture odds.
Russian forces claim full control of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole amid ongoing conflict
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
Russia announced territorial gains near Kostyantynivka, including full control of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, signaling intensified military pressure in the region. This likely contributed to market declines in the probability of capture by nearer dates due to increased conflict uncertainty.
ISW reports Russian forces continue assaults near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%3%
The Institute for the Study of War noted ongoing Russian mechanized and motorized assaults around Kostyantynivka without confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalemate and contributing to declining market odds for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify offensive in southwestern Kostyantynivka, forcing Ukrainian withdrawals
May 31, 2026 plunges to 3%48%
Russian troops made significant advances in southwestern districts, including Berestok, compelling Ukrainian forces to abandon key neighborhoods and sharply reducing market confidence in capture by May 31, 2026.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 drops to 37%13%
Russian forces conducted mechanized and motorized assaults near Kostyantynivka but failed to make confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalemate and contributing to market uncertainty about imminent capture.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Russian mechanized and motorized assaults continued near Kostyantynivka in late April without confirmed territorial gains, reflecting a stalemate that likely contributed to declining market confidence in a mid-2026 Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Russian forces conducted mechanized and motorized assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction but failed to make confirmed territorial gains, while Ukrainian forces maintained positions. This stalemate contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces continue mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
Russian forces conducted mechanized and motorized assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction but did not make confirmed territorial gains, reflecting a stalemate that contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations for mid-2026 capture.
Russia’s central bank condemns EU use of frozen assets to aid Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%2%
The statement underscored Moscow’s resolve to continue its offensive, reinforcing market sentiment that a swift capture of Kostyantynivka was unlikely, nudging the June‑30 odds lower.
Ukrainian forces conduct successful strikes and hold positions in Kostyantynivka area
June 30, 2026 rises to 54%2%
Ukrainian forces struck Russian vehicles south of Predtechyne and maintained positions northeast of Stinky and southern Chasiv Yar, countering Russian claims of advances and demonstrating Ukrainian resilience, which tempered market optimism for early capture.
Russia restricts FaceTime and blocks Snapchat, citing security concerns
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
The crackdown on popular communication apps reflected a broader internal security focus, diverting resources and signaling a less aggressive external posture, which contributed to a modest rebound in the September‑30 price.
ISW map shows Kostyantynivka still in contested gray zone
September 30, 2026 rises to 51%1%
ISW’s map update on April 22 showed Russian forces still only in a “gray zone” around Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian units holding the city’s core. This reinforced the market’s belief that a September capture was unlikely, driving the September‑30 price down from 50 % (May 4) to 51 % (May 21) then back up as Ukrainian advances were reported.
Russia bolsters Kostyantynivka offensive with 70th Motorized Rifle Division elements
September 30, 2026 jumps to 75%11%
ISW noted that Russian forces had redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to the Kostyantynivka sector in December 2025 and were now attempting to replenish 80 % of attacking units by early June. The reinforcement narrative helped explain the market’s July‑August swing, boosting the “September 30 2026” probability toward 75 % by 12 June.
Ukraine's air force reports Russian drone and missile barrage
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%39%
Ukraine's air force reported that Russia launched 653 drones and 51 missiles into Ukraine overnight, with 585 drones and 30 missiles shot down. This significant Russian offensive action contributed to market price declines across multiple outcomes.
Russian drone and missile attacks intensify across Ukraine
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, with Ukraine shooting down most but sustaining impacts across multiple locations. The ongoing conflict and high Russian casualties contributed to market uncertainty but did not significantly increase near-term capture odds.
Russian drone strike kills 12 mineworkers near Dnipro
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
A deadly Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers near Dnipro underscored Russia's continued offensive capabilities and willingness to target civilian infrastructure, maintaining pressure on Ukraine. This event likely influenced market perceptions of ongoing conflict intensity but did not directly increase near-term capture odds.
European nations commit troops to Ukraine as part of peace talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 48%7%
European countries, including the UK and France, committed to sending troops and establishing military hubs in Ukraine to safeguard any future peace deal. This bolstered Ukraine’s defense capabilities and complicated Russian advances, contributing to a decline in market confidence for a mid-2026 capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian drone strike on Ukrainian mineworker bus in Dnipro
May 31, 2026 plunges to 3%48%
Russian drones targeted a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro, killing at least 12 people, marking a significant escalation in the conflict and contributing to the market's sharp decline.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian advances with heavy losses inflicted
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%3%
General Staff of Ukraine reported continued repulsion of Russian attempts to improve positions near Kostyantynivka, inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, supporting market skepticism about imminent capture.
Russian forces advance claims in southern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 drops to 47%5%
In April, Russian milbloggers claimed advances in southern Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting. This contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating probabilities for capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces continue mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%1%
Throughout mid-April, Russian forces conducted mechanized and motorized assaults near Kostyantynivka but failed to make confirmed advances, while Ukrainian forces held key positions. This ongoing stalemate was reflected in stable market prices around 81%-82%.
Russia establishes drone corridors near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%13%
A video released by the Russian MoD on 17 April showed drone‑corridor construction near Kostyantynivka, indicating a renewed Russian push. The perceived escalation lifted the December‑31 probability as traders reassessed the chance of a late‑year capture.
Russians set up drone corridors in Kostyantynivka as advance slows to ~1 km per week
December 31, 2026 drops to 77%9%
A Forbes article highlighted Russian establishment of “drone corridors” near Kostyantynivka, suggesting a slow‑moving but steady advance that nudged the market’s December‑31 probability lower as the capture appeared farther off.
Russia to add 20 000 troops – still below monthly losses, deadline missed
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%31%
The Low‑Down reported that Russia would add only 20 000 troops from its strategic reserve – fewer than a month’s worth of Russian losses – and that the Kremlin had already missed its April deadline for Kostyantynivka. The news signalled that the offensive could not be reinforced, causing the June‑30, 2026 market to drop sharply from 61 % to 30 % in the following weeks.
Russia adds 20 000 troops to Donbas; deadline to take Kostyantynivka missed
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%11%
Reports that Russia was adding only 20 000 troops from reserves—far fewer than monthly losses—suggested a weakening offensive capacity. Coupled with the FT’s note that Russia’s deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April was missed, the market’s September‑30 price climbed from 51 % (May 21) to 62 % (May 30) as investors priced in a possible later‑year capture.
GUR official says Russia’s troop reinforcements insufficient to meet Kostyantynivka deadline
July 31, 2026 plunges to 32%17%
The FT quoted GUR Deputy Head Vadym Skibitskyi saying Russia was adding only 20,000 troops – far below its losses – and had missed its April deadline for Kostyantynivka. Traders cut short‑term capture odds, reflected in the July‑31 price drop from 49 % (2026‑04‑19) to 32 % (2026‑07‑03).
FT: Russia adds 20,000 troops to Donbas – still below loss rate
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%7%
Ukrainian GUR deputy head Skibitskyi told the FT that Russia was preparing to commit 20,000 fresh troops to its Donbas effort, yet those numbers were below monthly Russian losses. Analysts noted the reinforcement would not likely enable a rapid capture, tempering optimism for a December‑31 capture and nudging the price down from a high‑90 % to the low‑80 % range.
Observer says Russian forces only at Kostyantynivka’s outskirts, high casualties
June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%23%
Mashovets warned that Russian forces were only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and were suffering high casualties, indicating they would not meet the summer‑fall capture deadline. The market’s June‑30 price slid sharply from 81 % (Mar 1) to 58 % (Apr 1), reflecting heightened doubt about a June capture.
Russian offensive stalled near Kostyantynivka with high casualties
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%32%
Reports indicated Russian forces reached eastern outskirts but failed to secure key areas of Kostyantynivka, suffering heavy losses and unable to mount viable assaults on strategic targets. This diminished market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces likely reach eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but face heavy resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%2%
By mid-April, Russian forces reportedly reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but the southeastern area remained contested, with high Russian casualties and no decisive control. Ukrainian forces maintained strong defense, indicating Russian capture by the end of 2026 was uncertain, reflected in the market price decline to 81%.
Ukrainian forces conduct deep strikes inside Russian-held territory
June 30, 2026 plunges to 36%17%
Ukraine launched attacks on Russian oil terminals, pipelines, and military bases deep inside Russian and occupied territories, demonstrating offensive capabilities and resilience. This action tempered expectations of rapid Russian advances, impacting market prices for mid-year capture dates.
Ukrainian military observer reports Russian forces reached eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but face contested zones
On April 15, Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated Russian forces likely reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but the southeastern area remains contested, with Russian forces incurring high casualties and struggling to advance. This indicated a challenging environment for Russian capture efforts, impacting market confidence in a near-term Russian victory.
Russian milblogger claims advance in southern Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 52%8%
ISW reported a Russian claim of advancing in southern Kostyantynivka on April 15, which briefly lifted the June‑30 capture odds before later Ukrainian counter‑actions lowered them sharply.
Russian offensive stalled at Kostyantynivka with high casualties
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Ukrainian military observers reported Russian forces struggling to advance in Kostyantynivka, with only partial infiltration and high Russian casualties, dampening market optimism for near-term capture.
ISW says Russian advance on Kostyantynivka stalls, forces sustain heavy losses
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%3%
ISW reported that Russian forces had only reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and were suffering high casualties, indicating a slowdown in the Russian offensive. The market reacted with a modest rise for the December‑31 deadline (from 80 % on 2026‑04‑09 to 83 % on 2026‑04‑16) as traders reassessed short‑term capture odds.
Russian forces reach eastern outskirts but face heavy casualties near Kostyantynivka
Russian troops likely reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but the southeastern area remains contested, with high casualties limiting further advances and reducing market confidence in a timely capture.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian resistance
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Russian military command pressured forces to accelerate advances in Kostyantynivka, with persistent infiltration attempts and attacks near surrounding villages. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces maintained contested control, limiting Russian progress and causing market skepticism about near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces hold firm in Kostyantynivka despite Russian pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian troops maintained control within Kostyantynivka and engaged Russian forces in surrounding villages like Illinivka and north of Berestok. However, Ukrainian logistics and supply lines were under strain, indicating a difficult defensive situation.
Russian General Staff claims advances near Kostyantynivka; ISW says Russian forces suffering heavy losses
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%34%
Russian officials claimed rapid progress toward Kostyantynivka, but ISW analysts noted heavy Russian casualties and limited gains. The contrast caused market participants to sharply downgrade the “June 30, 2026” outcome, driving its price from 61 % to 27 % over the next 100 days.
Kremlin aligns with Trump’s view that Ukraine is delaying peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed President Trump’s claim that Ukraine is holding up a peace deal, suggesting Russian frustration with Kyiv’s stance. The statement added diplomatic pressure but also underscored stalled negotiations, contributing to continued price weakness across outcomes.
ISW: Russian forces stalled at Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts
July 31, 2026 drops to 49%14%
The ISW assessment quoted Ukrainian observer Mashovets saying Russian forces had only reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and were stuck in a contested “gray zone”. This underscored the difficulty of meeting the April deadline and caused a modest decline in the short‑term July‑31, 2026 price.
ISW: Russian troops still confined to Kostyantynivka’s outskirts
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
The ISW’s April‑15 2026 offensive campaign assessment warned that Russian forces were still only at the outskirts of Kostyantynivka and suffering high casualties, lowering confidence in a summer‑fall capture. The “June 30 2026” price fell from 61 % to 50 % over the next week.
Ukrainian resistance delays Russian capture of Kostyantynivka despite persistent assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%2%
Ukrainian forces successfully resisted Russian attempts to seize Kostyantynivka, with Russian troops only reaching the eastern outskirts and facing high casualties. This resistance contributed to market skepticism about Russia meeting its capture goals by the end of 2026.
Russian forces incur high casualties assaulting Kostyantynivka; Ukrainian advances continue
Russian troops suffered heavy losses in attempts to capture Kostyantynivka, with fighting ongoing and Ukrainian forces making marginal advances nearby, indicating a protracted battle and diminishing Russian prospects for summer 2026 capture.
ISW reports Russian forces incurring high casualties and failing to advance decisively in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%1%
ISW analysis noted Russian forces reached eastern outskirts but the southeastern area remains contested, with high Russian casualties and no viable position to assault Kramatorsk from the south. Western drone deliveries to Ukraine began, bolstering Ukrainian defense. This assessment likely depressed market prices for near-term capture.
Russian forces intensify efforts to infiltrate Kostyantynivka amid fierce Ukrainian resistance
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%11%
Russian military command pressured forces to accelerate advances in Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian defenses held key areas, causing market uncertainty about near-term capture.
Ukrainian resistance delays Russian attempts to capture Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%7%
Ukrainian forces successfully resisted Russian assaults, with Russian troops only reaching the eastern outskirts and the southeastern area remaining contested. High Russian casualties and lack of viable assault positions indicated that Russian forces would struggle to meet their summer-fall 2026 offensive goals, dampening expectations for a full capture within the year.
ISW reports Russian forces pressured to accelerate advance in Kostyantynivka but face high casualties
June 30, 2026 drops to 45%5%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but faced a contested southeastern area and high casualties, indicating difficulties in achieving operational goals and dampening market optimism for early capture.
Ukrainian resistance delays Russian attempts to seize Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces were pressured to accelerate their advance but only reached the eastern outskirts, with the southeastern area remaining contested, causing doubts about Russian capture by summer-fall 2026.
Russian military pressured to accelerate advance in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%1%
On April 15, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces were under pressure to speed up their offensive in Kostyantynivka but faced strong Ukrainian resistance, with the southeastern area remaining contested. This tempered market optimism about a quick Russian capture, contributing to a price decline from 82% to 81%.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warns Russia’s winter attacks are aimed at breaking civilian morale
Zelenskyy highlighted that Russia’s intensified strikes on Ukraine’s power grid during the coldest winter were intended to wear down resistance, reinforcing analysts’ view that Russia was pressing its offensive, which further depressed market prices.
Russian military command sets deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Russian forces intensified offensive operations in March and April 2026 with a set deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by May, raising early market expectations for a mid-year capture, though the deadline was later missed.
ISW: Ukrainian strikes hit Russian positions in Kostyantynivka, halting infiltrations
June 30, 2026 plunges to 49%31%
An ISW report on 12 April highlighted Ukrainian counter‑strikes that disrupted Russian infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the perception that Russian momentum was faltering. This helped trigger the early‑May drop in the “June 30, 2026” price from 80 % (3 Mar) to 49 % (4 Apr).
Ukrainian military spokesperson calls Russian deadline for Kostyantynivka capture unrealistic
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%1%
On April 12, Ukrainian military spokesperson Dmitro Zaporozhets stated that Russian plans to capture Kostyantynivka by April 25 were unrealistic due to ongoing urban combat and failed Russian maneuvers, reinforcing market skepticism about a quick Russian victory.
Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize front near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 dips to 48%3%
Ukrainian forces conducted effective counterattacks near Kostyantynivka, maintaining or advancing positions and preventing further Russian gains, contributing to market price declines for near-term capture dates.
Ukrainian forces maintain control amid ongoing Russian attacks on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%1%
By April 12, despite heavy Russian attacks and use of advanced munitions, Ukrainian forces continued to hold Kostyantynivka, with Russian advances limited to infiltration and artillery strikes, contributing to the market's decline in capture probability to 82%.
Guardian reports $500 k bet on Kostyantynivka capture market
September 30, 2026 jumps to 64%7%
The Guardian article highlighted $500k staked on the market, increasing public attention and short‑term price volatility, especially for the September 30 2026 contract.
Zelensky States Russia Will Miss Deadline to Seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%2%
President Zelensky stated that Russia set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 but would not meet it, lowering market expectations for capture within the year.
Putin announces Orthodox Easter ceasefire with Ukraine
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%2%
On April 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a ceasefire from April 11 to April 12 for Orthodox Easter, ordering Russian forces to halt combat operations temporarily. This ceasefire, initiated after Ukraine signaled willingness, paused hostilities around Kostyantynivka, further delaying Russian offensive efforts and contributing to market uncertainty about imminent capture.
Putin orders ceasefire for Orthodox Easter amid stalled Russian advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%2%
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kostyantynivka but made no significant advances by April 10. Putin's decree for a ceasefire from April 11 to 12 signaled a temporary halt, reflecting stalled progress and impacting market confidence for a late 2026 capture.
Russian President Putin warns of extending gains if peace talks fail
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%32%
Putin warned that Russia would seek to expand its territorial gains in Ukraine if peace negotiations fail, emphasizing military means as a fallback. This hardened stance likely contributed to declining market confidence in near-term Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, reflected in falling prices for June and May 2026 outcomes.
President Zelenskyy states Russian forces aim to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%1%
On April 10, 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged Russian intentions to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April, highlighting the strategic importance and intensifying the battle, which influenced market perceptions of the timeline for capture.
Zelenskyy states Russian forces aim to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April but lack capability
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%1%
President Zelenskyy revealed that Russian forces set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 but assessed that Russia currently lacks the capability to occupy the city by that time, reflecting skepticism about Russian offensive success.
Zelenskyy states Russian aim to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April is impossible
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy declared that Russian deadlines to capture Kostyantynivka and nearby cities by April 2026 are unrealistic, supported by British intelligence assessments, reducing market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
Zelenskyy states Russian forces aim to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged Russian ambitions to seize Kostyantynivka by April's end, signaling the importance of the city in the conflict and influencing market expectations for near-term capture, though fighting remained intense.
Russian forces fail to advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid ceasefire announcement
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%1%
Despite continued offensive operations, Russian forces did not advance in the Kostyantynivka area. A ceasefire decree by Putin for Orthodox Easter further paused combat, signaling stalled Russian progress and reinforcing doubts about capture timelines.
Russia uses new hypersonic Oreshnik missile in major Ukraine attack
May 31, 2026 plunges to 23%28%
The deployment of a hypersonic missile in a large‑scale strike raised concerns about Russia’s willingness to use advanced weapons, temporarily boosting odds of a swift capture before the May deadline.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%4%
Despite ongoing Russian attacks and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces counterattacked and maintained control, leading to a further decrease in the market's confidence for near-term capture.
Zelenskyy states Russia aims to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%1%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russian forces intended to capture Kostyantynivka and nearby cities by the end of April 2026, setting a clear timeline that influenced market expectations for the December 31, 2026 outcome, initially high but slightly declining after this date.
Zelenskyy says Russia aims to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
President Zelenskyy told reporters that Russia had set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. The admission of a Russian timetable raised market expectations for a capture later in the year, pushing the September‑30, 2026 price up from about 50 % to the high‑60 % range.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but make no advances; ceasefire declared for Easter
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
On April 10, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka but did not advance. Russian President Putin ordered a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter starting April 11. This lack of progress and temporary halt in combat likely contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture of the city.
Zelensky reports Russian deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026 is unrealistic
December 31, 2026 dips to 80%3%
President Zelensky stated that Russian forces set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 but assessed that Russia lacks the capability to meet this deadline, reinforcing doubts about Russian success and contributing to market price decline.
Zelenskyy dismisses Russian frontline ambitions to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly rejected Russian claims and ambitions to capture Kostyantynivka by April 2026, signaling strong Ukrainian defense and reducing market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Zelenskyy states Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by end of April is impossible
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
President Zelenskyy revealed that Russian forces aim to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 but called this impossible, supported by British intelligence assessments, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term Russian capture.
ISW: Ukrainian forces hit Russian positions near Kostyantynivka after April 10 infiltrations
May 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Earlier in the window, ISW noted Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in and around Kostyantynivka after Russian infiltration attempts, a pattern that set the backdrop for later price declines. The event is linked to the gradual erosion of belief that Russia could capture the city, affecting the May‑31 market.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports Russian failure to meet capture deadlines for Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%1%
On April 10, President Zelensky stated that Russian forces set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 but would not meet it. This official statement likely influenced the market price decline to 81% by mid-April, reflecting reduced expectations of Russian success within the year.
Putin orders temporary cease‑fire for Easter, pausing Russian offensive
December 31, 2026 drops to 79%5%
President Putin signed a decree ordering a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter, halting combat operations in all directions. The pause reduced the momentum of Russia’s spring‑summer offensive and signalled that the stipulated deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by the end of April was unlikely to be met, pushing the market probability for a December capture down.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in and around Kostyantynivka after Russian infiltration missions
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Geolocated footage on April 10 showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration attempts, indicating ongoing contested fighting but no Russian territorial consolidation, which maintained downward pressure on near-term capture probabilities.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka, slowing Russian advances
July 31, 2026 plunges to 9%40%
Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka following infiltration attempts maintained contested fighting and prevented Russian territorial consolidation, causing a decline in near-term capture probabilities.
Zelenskyy reports Russian deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%3%
President Zelenskyy stated that Russian forces aimed to capture Kostyantynivka and other cities by the end of April 2026 but assessed this as impossible. British intelligence shared similar views, undermining confidence in Russian success and causing market price to decline further.
Zelensky says Russia’s Kostyantynivka deadline will be missed
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%4%
President Zelensky announced that Russian forces had set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka (and Druzhkivka) by the end of April 2026, but also noted that Russian forces were unlikely to meet that deadline. The comment highlighted a slowdown in the Russian offensive, prompting traders to lower the probability of a capture by Dec 31, 2026.
Russian commanders set unmet deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by end-April
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Russian commanders reportedly committed strategic reserves to the Donetsk axis aiming to capture Kostyantynivka by end-April, but these efforts have not produced significant gains, reflecting ongoing stalemate and contributing to market decline in capture probability.
Russian forces fail to meet deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by end of April 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%1%
Despite continued offensive operations, Russian forces did not advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area by the set deadline, and a ceasefire was declared for Orthodox Easter, signaling stalled progress and lowering market confidence in a near-term capture.
ISW reports Russian offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without advances
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but failed to make territorial gains, contributing to a decline in market confidence for a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian command sets April 25 deadline for capturing Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian military calls it unrealistic
On April 10, Russian command reportedly set April 25, 2026, as the deadline to capture Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian military spokesperson stated that urban combat and failed flanking maneuvers make this timeline overly optimistic, suggesting capture would take months longer, possibly until October 2026.
Zelensky says Russia missed April deadline to capture Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Zelensky noted that Russia had set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka (along with Druzhkivka) by the end of April, but the deadline passed without success. The failure reinforced market expectations that a 2026 capture was improbable, pushing the price down to its low of 81 %.
Zelenskyy dismisses Russian frontline ambitions in Donetsk Oblast
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly rejected Russian claims of imminent capture of Kostyantynivka and neighboring cities by end of April 2026, signaling Ukrainian confidence and undermining Russian operational deadlines. This contributed to market declines in short-term capture probabilities.
ISW says Russia will miss its April deadline to take Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%2%
ISW reported that Russia had set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026 and that it would not meet that deadline. The failure to achieve the Kremlin‑set goal reduced market confidence that Russia would capture the city even by the later December 31 2026 horizon, pulling the “December 31, 2026” probability down from the high‑80s to the low‑80s.
Zelensky: Russia aims to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April 2026
September 30, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Zelenskyy told reporters that Russia had set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. The statement reminded the market that Russia still claimed an aggressive timetable, lifting optimism for a May‑July capture and pushing the September‑30, 2026 price up from 50 % to 63 % by early May.
ISW: Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka on April 8‑9, no advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
The April 9 assessment noted continued Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka but no substantive territorial gain, reinforcing the view that a capture before year‑end remained uncertain, which modestly lifted the Dec 31 odds.
Russian troops carry out multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian counteractions
December 31, 2026 dips to 80%3%
Russian forces conducted 20 attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenders repelled numerous assaults, indicating ongoing stalemate and attrition. This sustained fighting with no decisive Russian gains contributed to further market price decline.
Zelensky states Russia lacks forces to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Ukrainian President Zelensky publicly declared that Russian troops do not have sufficient forces to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of April 2026, signaling strong Ukrainian defense and limiting near-term Russian prospects, which contributed to a market price decline.
Ukrainian forces increase mid-range strikes degrading Russian offensive capabilities near Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief reported a significant increase in mid-range strikes against Russian logistics and command posts in early 2026, impeding Russian advances and preparations for a spring-summer offensive near Kostyantynivka. This contributed to sustained Ukrainian defense and market price decline.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no advances amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka but failed to advance, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked, indicating a stalemate and continued strong Ukrainian defense limiting Russian progress.
President Zelensky states Russia lacks forces to capture Kostyantynivka by end of April
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
On April 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly declared that Russian troops do not have sufficient forces to capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka by the end of April 2026, signaling a likely failure of the Russian offensive in this timeframe and reinforcing market pessimism.
Russian offensive operations continue near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%2%
On April 7-8, Russian forces conducted attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but did not make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian counterattacks were reported, indicating continued stalemate and resistance, which corresponded with the market price bottoming near 81% and then slightly recovering.
Russian drones systematically target civilians fleeing Kostyantynivka amid ongoing bombardment
December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Reports of Russian drone attacks targeting civilians and evacuation teams in Kostyantynivka highlighted the dire humanitarian situation and ongoing Russian pressure, but also underscored the city's resistance and incomplete Russian control, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Russian drones and artillery increasingly target civilians in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%6%
Russian forces intensified attacks deep into Kostyantynivka, targeting civilians and infrastructure, reflecting ongoing conflict but no decisive Russian control, contributing to market price decline.
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations meet in Miami on security framework discussions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 26%35%
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami to discuss security framework for a potential peace agreement, but no concrete progress was made, contributing to market skepticism about a quick resolution.
Ukrainian forces advance marginally in southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces making small advances in the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, demonstrating effective defense and counterattacks that hinder Russian progress, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Ukraine's commander-in-chief states Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On April 7, Ukraine's top military official publicly confirmed that Russian forces have been unable to capture Kostyantynivka despite persistent efforts, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent Russian success and contributing to price declines for near-term capture outcomes.
Ukrainian Commander reports Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka repelled for nearly a year
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for almost a year but Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled all attacks, maintaining control and reducing market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian commander confirms Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%1%
General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces have been unable to capture Kostyantynivka despite nearly a year of attempts, reinforcing the market's view of low likelihood for capture by early 2026.
Russian forces continue attempts to infiltrate and envelop Ukrainian defenses in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Russian military command persisted with infiltration tactics using small infantry groups to envelop Kostyantynivka from east and south, but full control was not achieved. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks, contributing to market skepticism about imminent capture.
Ukrainian commanders confirm Russian failure to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
On April 7, Ukrainian military leadership publicly stated that Russian forces have failed to capture Kostyantynivka despite nearly a year of assaults, highlighting effective Ukrainian defense and counterattacks. This official confirmation contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian commander calls Russian Kostyantynivka deadline unrealistic
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
Ukrainian General‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, citing the 11th Army Corps spokesperson, said the Russian deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by April 25 was unrealistic, emphasizing that Ukrainian forces still controlled the city. This underscored the difficulty for Russia to meet its timetable, lowering the market’s estimate for a December capture.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief reports Russia failing to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%5%
Ukraine's top military official stated that Russian forces have been unable to capture Kostyantynivka despite nearly a year of assaults, highlighting strong Ukrainian defense and high Russian casualties. This official assessment likely contributed to a market reassessment lowering the odds of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief confirms Russian failure to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year
December 31, 2026 rises to 83%1%
On April 7, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year but Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled all attacks. This official confirmation of Ukrainian control likely contributed to the market price stabilizing around 83%.
Ukrainian forces repel 82 attacks with highest combat near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
On April 7, Ukrainian defenders repelled 82 attacks, with the most intense fighting near Kostyantynivka where Russian forces launched twenty assault attempts. This demonstrated strong Ukrainian defense and stalled Russian advances, contributing to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian commander confirms Russian forces have failed to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
On April 7, Ukraine's commander-in-chief stated that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year but Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled all attacks, reinforcing doubts about Russian ability to capture the city soon and contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian commander reports Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year of attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Ukraine's commander-in-chief stated that Russian forces have been unable to capture Kostyantynivka despite nearly a year of continuous assaults, underscoring the city's strong Ukrainian defense and diminishing prospects for Russian capture by April deadline.
Ukrainian commander says Russia has failed to capture Kostiantynivka for a year
June 30, 2026 drops to 46%12%
RBC‑Ukraine quoted Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief stating that Russia had failed to capture Kostiantynivka for nearly a year. This admission of Russian stagnation lowered the market’s confidence for a June 30 2026 capture, contributing to the price drop from 58 % to 46 % during the week of April 7‑14.
General Syrskyi Declares Russia Has Failed to Capture Kostiantynivka for Nearly a Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%1%
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi visited the front and announced that Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled all Russian infantry and drone attacks on Kostiantynivka for almost a year, driving the market down to its low of 81%.
Ukrainian commander states Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka after nearly a year
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%3%
On April 7, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year but have been repelled. This official statement reinforced Ukrainian control and contributed to a market price decline from 85% to 82%.
Ukraine's commander-in-chief states Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 51%3%
The Ukrainian military leadership publicly confirmed that Russian forces have not succeeded in capturing Kostyantynivka despite prolonged efforts, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term Russian victory.
Zelensky States Russia Lacks Forces to Capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%3%
President Zelensky and General Syrskyi highlighted that despite a year of assaults, Russia lacks the strategic forces to capture the key Fortress Belt cities, driving the market down to its lowest levels.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief states Russian forces have failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
June 30, 2026 dips to 50%2%
On April 7, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year but Ukrainian troops have successfully repelled all enemy attacks, holding positions and inflicting significant losses. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a near-term Russian capture of the city.
Ukraine's commander-in-chief confirms Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%4%
General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces have been unable to capture Kostyantynivka despite prolonged efforts, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term Russian victory and contributing to price decline.
Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief says Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for a year
September 30, 2026 jumps to 61%11%
RBC‑Ukraine quoted the Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief stating that Russia had failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year. The statement reinforced market sentiment that a capture before the end of 2026 was unlikely, contributing to the gradual decline of the September 30 contract from 50 % to 61 % over the analysis window.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief states Russia has failed to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%3%
On April 7, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Russian forces have been trying to capture Kostyantynivka for nearly a year but have been repelled by Ukrainian troops. This official statement reinforced market skepticism about Russian success within 2026.
Russian infiltration missions continue near Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 82%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers conducting infiltration missions east of Kostyantynivka, but these did not change control of terrain. Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, reflecting ongoing stalemate and contributing to the market's decline to 82%.
Russian drones strike Dnipro killing mineworkers
June 30, 2026 drops to 58%8%
A Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers near Dnipro highlighted renewed Russian air‑strike activity in eastern Ukraine, suggesting increased pressure on front‑line towns such as Kostyantynivka.
Civilians targeted by Russian drones while fleeing Kostyantynivka amid ongoing strikes
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
By early April, Russian drone and artillery strikes intensified in Kostyantynivka, targeting civilians attempting to flee the city. The worsening humanitarian crisis and continued Russian attacks without territorial gains highlighted the protracted nature of the battle and diminished likelihood of rapid Russian capture.
Ukrainian military official states Russian capture of Kostyantynivka unlikely before October 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%1%
A Ukrainian spokesperson indicated that Russian attempts to capture Kostyantynivka face significant delays due to urban combat challenges and failed flanking maneuvers, pushing expected capture beyond initial Russian deadlines. This contributed to market price decline near analysis end.
Russian forces launch 41 attacks focusing on Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk directions
December 31, 2026 drops to 81%7%
On April 5, Russian forces conducted 41 attacks targeting Ukrainian positions around Kostyantynivka, indicating sustained offensive efforts. Despite this, Ukrainian defenses held, and no decisive capture occurred, reflecting ongoing stalemate and contributing to market price decline.
Russian drone strike kills civilian on Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road as Zelenskyy visits Istanbul
September 30, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
While Zelenskyy was in Istanbul, Russia launched a drone strike that killed a civilian near Kostyantynivka. The incident heightened fears of an imminent capture, pushing the “September 30, 2026” probability up from ~50 % to 64 %.
Heavy fighting continues on Kostyantynivka front with no Russian advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
Ukrainian General Staff reported intense combat with 149 clashes on the Kostyantynivka front, but Russian forces failed to make confirmed advances, reflecting ongoing stalemate and contributing to a decline in market confidence.
Market confidence drops sharply amid reports of Russian resource shortages and high casualties
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%10%
Reports emerged that Russian forces in the Kostyantynivka direction suffered from insufficient resources and high casualty rates, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for capture by June 30, 2026.
Russian FPV drone destroys Marine Brigade vehicle near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 65%7%
A Reddit‑linked Ukrainian source described a Russian FPV drone destroying a Marine Brigade vehicle. The perception of increasing Russian air activity helped push the September 30 2026 price up.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%5%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks and infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka but did not achieve confirmed advances, while Ukrainian forces struck back effectively. This diminished market confidence in a near-term Russian capture, reflected in price decline.
Ukrainian allies announce multilayered security guarantees for post‑peace Ukraine
September 30, 2026 jumps to 57%7%
European leaders and the United States pledged extensive security guarantees to Ukraine in case a peace deal is reached, signalling strong Western support that could deter further Russian advances toward Kostyantynivka. The announcement coincided with a modest price rebound, reflecting reduced perceived risk of a Russian capture.
Peace talks stall over territorial disagreements
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%13%
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, mediated by the U.S., hit a deadlock as both sides maintained conflicting positions on territorial control in the Donbas region.
Russian drone strike kills civilian near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%5%
A Russian drone strike hit a civilian car on the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka road, killing one woman and wounding another, highlighting the continued violence and instability in the area. This event underscored the ongoing conflict without indicating a Russian capture, coinciding with a price drop to 83%.
French navy intercepts Russian‑linked tanker ‘Grinch’ in the Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%3%
The seizure of a suspected shadow‑fleet tanker highlighted intensified sanctions enforcement against Russia’s oil exports, raising concerns about Russia’s war‑financing capacity and contributing to a 3‑point drop in the December‑31, 2026 price from 82% to 79%.
Russia’s Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missile system entered active service in Belarus
June 30, 2026 plunges to 47%32%
The activation of the Oreshnik missile system signaled a strategic escalation, prompting analysts to reassess Russia’s focus on long‑range capabilities over ground offensives, dampening expectations of a swift capture of Kostyantynivka.
Allied nations pledge new security guarantees for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
A Paris summit of 27 European states and Canada announced a multilayered security package for Kyiv, raising expectations of stronger defence but also prompting Russian warnings of escalation, which coincided with a modest price dip for the December‑31 outcome.
Peace talks stall as territorial disputes intensify
June 30, 2026 drops to 49%11%
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia hit a significant roadblock over territorial demands, causing a sharp drop in the market's confidence in a Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by mid-year.
Russian assault troops drive enemy from fields near agricultural technical school in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
Russian assault troops pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near the agricultural technical school and engaged in combat on the facility grounds, showing continued local advances but no decisive capture of the city. This contributed to a slight market price decline reflecting uncertainty.
Russian command sets April 25, 2026 deadline for capturing Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian officials deem it unrealistic
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%5%
Russian military leadership aimed to capture Kostyantynivka by April 25, 2026, but Ukrainian commanders considered this timeline overly optimistic due to urban combat challenges and strong defense, lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian military reports Russian deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by April 25
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%6%
On April 1, Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces set an April 25 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and British intelligence assessed this as impossible given current Russian capabilities, reflecting skepticism in the market.
Russian Forces Attempt to Envelop Kostyantynivka but Fail to Make Confirmed Advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%2%
Despite launching massive drone strikes and attempting to envelop Ukrainian defenses from the east and south, Russian forces failed to make confirmed advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, pushing the market price down to 84%.
Russian units occupy new positions on southern approaches to Kostyantynivka
Russian forces advanced locally by taking control of fortifications near the agricultural college south of Kostyantynivka, indicating incremental progress but not full capture. This maintained pressure on Ukrainian defenders and supported a high but slightly cautious market probability.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Kostyantynivka and Surrounding Outskirts
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in Kostyantynivka and its southwestern outskirts, demonstrating resilient defense and triggering a drop in the market's probability.
Russian 4th Motor Rifle Brigade launches fresh armored assault on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
Despite previous failures, Russian forces renewed offensive efforts with experienced units and heavy armored vehicles, signaling continued pressure but no decisive breakthrough.
Russian Offensive Stalls on Northern Part of Ukraine's Fortress Belt
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
Military observers reported that Russian forces stalled near Kryva Luka and Zakitne, failing to make significant advances. This raised doubts about Russia's ability to pursue offensive operations toward Kostyantynivka, contributing to a price drop from 88% to 86% by April 1.
Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive begins with intensified assaults near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 83%5%
Between March 17 and 21, Russian forces launched a significant offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt, including Kostyantynivka, with increased mechanized assaults and strikes, reflecting Russia's priority to capture the city in 2026, though Ukrainian resistance remained strong.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in central Kostyantynivka after failed Russian infiltration
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
On March 26, Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russian-occupied buildings in central Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating continued Ukrainian defensive strength and limiting Russian advances.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Kostyantynivka but fail to secure advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Russian forces increased mechanized and motorized assaults around Kostyantynivka as part of a spring offensive, yet Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance prevented significant territorial gains. This stalemate contributed to market skepticism about a near-term Russian capture.
Heavy fighting and Russian drone attacks threaten Kostyantynivka evacuation routes
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%2%
Intense fighting and Russian drone swarms targeted the city's last evacuation route, highlighting the precarious situation for Ukrainian defenders and civilians. This increased perceived risk but did not indicate imminent Russian capture, contributing to market price decline.
Russian Spring-Summer offensive begins with intensified assaults near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 72%7%
Russian forces launched increased mechanized and motorized assaults in the Fortress Belt, including Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces struck back effectively. Despite heavy fighting, Russian advances were limited, reflecting ongoing stalemate and high casualties, which influenced market prices downward for earlier capture dates.
Ukrainian forces repel four‑direction Russian attack on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%1%
UNN reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a coordinated Russian assault on Kostyantynivka from four directions. The clear Ukrainian defensive success reinforced doubts about a Russian breakthrough, contributing to the market’s slide from the high‑80s toward the mid‑80s during late‑March.
Heavy fighting continues in Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian forces defending city
June 30, 2026 dips to 63%2%
As of late March, heavy fighting persisted in Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian troops defending the city against Russian assaults. The only road to Kramatorsk was heavily targeted by Russian drones, forcing civilians to flee on foot. Ukrainian forces managed to repel multiple Russian attacks, maintaining control despite logistical challenges and ongoing pressure.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration in central Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On March 26, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian-occupied building in central Kostyantynivka after a Russian infiltration mission that did not change control of terrain, indicating continued Ukrainian defense and resistance to Russian capture efforts.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%3%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but did not make territorial gains. Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack and hold key positions, sustaining the market's view of a likely Ukrainian hold through the end of 2026.
Russian forces launch intensified spring offensive near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian forces increased mechanized and motorized assaults and drone strikes in the Kostyantynivka area, marking the start of their spring-summer offensive, but failed to secure decisive gains, contributing to market volatility.
Russia launches battalion-size assaults near Kostyantynivka amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Russian forces launched battalion-size assaults near Kostyantynivka and other key locations as part of a spring offensive, but Ukrainian forces aimed to repel these attacks, signaling continued intense fighting without decisive Russian gains. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight decline in the probability of Russian capture by year-end.
Russian army carries out 54 attacks near Kostyantynivka amid tense frontline
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
On March 22, the Russian army conducted 54 attacks across various front sections, including seven near Kostyantynivka and Pleshchiivka, maintaining high pressure but failing to secure control. Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions, reflecting ongoing stalemate and resistance that influenced market confidence downward.
Russian forces intensify ground assaults near Kostyantynivka in preparation for spring offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
On March 21, Ukrainian officials reported increased Russian personnel movements and intensified drone strikes near Kostyantynivka as Russia prepared for a spring-summer offensive. However, Russia was unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026, limiting market confidence in a near-term capture.
Ukrainian officer says Russia unlikely to seize Fortress Belt in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
Ukrainian 11th AC spokesperson reported that Russian forces were intensifying ground assaults toward Kostyantynivka but warned that a full capture was unlikely in 2026. The acknowledgement of a stalled offensive further reduced market confidence in a December capture.
Russian forces begin anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Fortress Belt
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%4%
Russian forces initiated their spring offensive targeting the Fortress Belt including Kostyantynivka, with intensified ground assaults and drone strikes. The offensive raised expectations of Russian advances but also highlighted strong Ukrainian defenses, causing market volatility.
ISW confirms Ukrainian gains around Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical direction
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%6%
ISW reported Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, contradicting Russian claims. The news reduced market confidence in a Russian capture, contributing to the drop of the “December 31, 2026” price from 93 % (early Jan) to 87 % by late Jan.
Russia ramps up assaults toward Kostyantynivka ahead of spring‑summer offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Zaporozhets reported that Russian forces had intensified ground assaults and were moving personnel and armor toward the southern tip of the Fortress Belt, i.e., Kostyantynivka. The assessment that Russia was preparing a major push raised doubts about quick capture, nudging the market down for the Dec 31 outcome.
Russian forces begin Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukrainian Fortress Belt including Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Russian military initiated a major offensive targeting the Fortress Belt defensive line, including intensified operations near Kostyantynivka. Despite efforts, Russian advances were limited and costly, leading to mixed market reactions with some tactical gains priced in but overall skepticism about full capture by year-end.
ISW notes Ukrainian advances near Kostyantynivka and Russian dam‑shelling
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
ISW’s March 20 assessment reported that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka and that Russian shelling was focused on dams rather than ground assaults. The indication of Ukrainian gains and lack of confirmed Russian breakthroughs suggested a lower likelihood of a Russian capture by year‑end, contributing to the price decline.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but face strong Ukrainian resistance
Around March 20, Russian forces increased mechanized and motorized assaults near Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and artillery, but Ukrainian forces held defensive positions and counterattacked, preventing Russian capture of the city.
Russian forces intensify shelling and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
By March 20, Russian forces increased shelling and drone strikes targeting Kostyantynivka and nearby logistics lines, aiming to prepare for a larger offensive. However, Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the area, maintaining defensive positions and preventing Russian capture.
Fierce fighting reported in Kostyantynivka direction with Ukrainian forces holding key positions
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
The General Staff reported intense combat in Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with Ukrainian forces repelling multiple Russian assaults, reinforcing the view that Russian capture was not imminent and contributing to a price decline.
Russian forces intensify attacks and shell dams near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
In late February and March, Russian forces repeatedly shelled dams near Kostyantynivka to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and launched multiple attacks around the city, but Ukrainian forces held key positions, preventing encirclement. This sustained fighting without decisive Russian gains contributed to a gradual price decline.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On March 19-20, Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka but were unable to make significant territorial gains. Ukrainian control of nearby areas prevented Russian envelopment, contributing to a gradual decline in market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
ISW reports ongoing Russian attacks but no decisive gains near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
On March 20, ISW noted continued Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian advances in some areas, but no decisive Russian territorial gains. This stalemate contributed to a gradual decline in market confidence for a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka throughout March 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Successful Ukrainian defense of the city during a critical period reduced capture probability, causing price to decline.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian assaults near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
On March 20, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled numerous Russian attacks in the Kostyantynivka direction, maintaining control of key positions despite intensified fighting. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and contributed to the market's decline in confidence for a near-term Russian capture.
Russian forces continue mechanized assaults and dam strikes near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%3%
Russian forces conducted repeated strikes on dams and mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and prepare for a spring-summer offensive. Ukrainian counterattacks persisted, maintaining a contested frontline and influencing market uncertainty.
Russian command aims to seize Kostyantynivka before May 2026 holidays
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian military leadership set a goal to capture Kostyantynivka before May 2026, intensifying assaults and artillery shelling. Despite increased pressure, Ukrainian defenses held, maintaining market skepticism about imminent capture.
Russia targets Kostyantynivka capture before May 9 Victory Day holiday
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
Zaporozhets said Russian command aimed to seize Kostyantynivka before the May 9 Victory Day holiday, indicating a target date that fell after the market’s Dec 31 horizon and suggesting a slower timetable, which contributed to the price decline for that outcome.
Russian General Staff claims over 60% control of Kostyantynivka disputed by analysts
Russian General Gerasimov claimed majority control of Kostyantynivka, but independent assessments and Ukrainian reports indicated ongoing contested fighting and no decisive Russian control, maintaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy criticizes Europe for slow response to Russian aggression
May 31, 2026 plunges to 23%28%
Zelenskyy's public rebuke of European allies for inadequate support and slow action against Russia's invasion highlighted Ukraine's ongoing challenges and the uncertain pace of Russian advances. This contributed to market reassessment of the likelihood of near-term Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka throughout March
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
Ukrainian troops successfully defended Kostyantynivka against Russian assaults, maintaining control over key positions including the central railway station, which indicated continued Ukrainian resilience and lowered short-term capture odds.
Russia intensifies Kostyantynivka offensive in March with mechanised assault
ISW documented a March‑wide intensification of Russian offensive operations, including a platoon‑sized mechanised assault on Kostyantynivka. This early‑spring surge set the stage for later price volatility, with the market initially trending upward (93 % on 13 Jan) before the later setbacks.
US and Russia reestablish high‑level military dialogue in Abu Dhabi
September 30, 2026 jumps to 57%7%
The resumption of direct military talks was interpreted as a de‑escalation cue, reducing short‑term expectations of aggressive Russian advances toward Kostyantynivka before the September deadline.
Ukrainian chief of staff says troops regained 50 km in March
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%13%
A statement from the Ukrainian chief of staff reporting a 50‑km territorial gain in March signalled a Ukrainian counter‑offensive in the Kostyantynivka sector, pushing Russian chances lower. The “June 30 2026” price slid from 63 % to 50 % in late March.
Kremlin says Abu Dhabi peace talks are constructive but no breakthrough yet
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
The modest diplomatic progress offered a brief lift in expectations for a negotiated settlement, temporarily stabilising the market before the next wave of military news.
Russian forces accumulate troops and armor near Kostyantynivka for spring offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
On March 12, Ukrainian reports indicated Russian buildup of infantry, drone operators, and armored vehicles near Kostyantynivka in preparation for a spring offensive, along with intensified airstrikes. This suggested a forthcoming escalation but no immediate capture, maintaining market uncertainty.
Russian forces accumulate troops near Chasiv Yar for spring offensive
Russian forces amassed infantry, drone operators, and armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar northeast of Kostyantynivka, preparing for a spring offensive. This buildup suggested a forthcoming intensified push, maintaining market expectations for eventual capture but with uncertainty on timing.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations against Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
In March 2026, Russian forces sharply intensified their offensive against Kostyantynivka, with the Russian military command setting a May deadline to capture the city. This escalation increased market confidence in a Russian capture by end of year but uncertainty remained due to Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces push through Berestok near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
Russian troops reportedly captured the village of Berestok south of Kostyantynivka, tightening the semi-ring around the city and probing for weak points in Ukrainian defenses. This increased pressure on Kostyantynivka's southern approaches.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Kostyantynivka in March 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka in early March 2026, including mechanized assaults and infiltration missions, signaling a significant escalation in their offensive efforts. This increased activity raised market confidence in a near-term capture, reflected in price increases for later capture dates.
ISW documents heavy Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka on March 8‑9
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
ISW’s March 9 assessment listed numerous Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka, indicating a fresh Russian offensive effort and raising market confidence that Russia could achieve a capture by the September deadline.
Russia claims capture of Holubivka near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%32%
The ISW assessment for 9 March listed a Russian claim of seizing Holubivka (northeast of Kostyantynivka) and geolocated footage of artillery strikes, suggesting a modest Russian advance. This news coincided with a modest rise in the June‑30 probability as traders factored a potential, albeit limited, foothold.
ISW reports heavy Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka signaling fresh offensive
September 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
The Institute for the Study of War documented numerous Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka on March 8-9, 2026, indicating a renewed Russian offensive effort. This raised market confidence in a potential capture by September 30, 2026.
Ukrainian troops repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka throughout March
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
ISW‑referenced reports described Ukrainian forces repelling several Russian assaults throughout March, keeping the front interspersed. The news tempered earlier optimism, coinciding with a 3‑point decline in the “December 31 2026” probability between 12‑14 Feb and early March.
Russian forces infiltrate Kostyantynivka but are repelled by Ukrainian defenders
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Around March 6, Russian 13th Assault Company infiltrated southwestern Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and expelled them. Despite ongoing Russian attacks and artillery strikes, Ukrainian forces held the city, demonstrating resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assault groups in Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 72%5%
The Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and drove out Russian assault groups after Russian forces briefly marched into Kostyantynivka. Despite Russian attempts to strangle the city, Ukrainian control was maintained, stabilizing the situation and tempering market expectations for immediate capture.
Russians marched into Kostyantynivka but were driven out
May 31, 2026 plunges to 1%19%
An Euromaidan Press article described a brief Russian incursion into Kostyantynivka that was quickly repelled. The news coincided with a sharp fall in the “May 31 2026” probability, which slid toward 1 %.
Russians briefly seize Kostyantynivka after dam explosion, then retreat
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%11%
EUROMAIDAN Press reported Russian troops briefly entering Kostyantynivka after blowing up a dam, but being forced to withdraw. The mixed news caused a sharp swing upward for the September 30 2026 market.
Russian troops briefly entered Kostyantynivka but were repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Russian forces managed a short incursion into Kostyantynivka after destroying a key dam to flood supply routes, but Ukrainian counterattacks quickly expelled them, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and reducing market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assault groups in Kostyantynivka area
The Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade successfully drove out Russian assault groups from areas near Kostyantynivka, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian territorial gains, which tempered market optimism.
Ukrainian brigade repels Russian assault groups in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
The Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and drove out Russian assault groups near Kostyantynivka, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka, maintaining control over central station
May 31, 2026 plunges to 31%20%
In early March, Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults throughout Kostyantynivka, including capturing a Russian soldier near the railway station, indicating Ukrainian control over key infrastructure. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and stalled Russian advances, affecting market prices downward for near-term capture.
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repels Russian assault in Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 drops to 10%14%
Ukrainian forces successfully drove out Russian assault groups from southwestern approaches to Kostyantynivka, demonstrating strong defense and reducing near-term capture likelihood.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assault after Russian destruction of key dam near Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 25%26%
Russian forces destroyed a dam to flood supply routes but Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and expelled Russian assault groups from nearby Khutir, demonstrating Ukrainian resilience and stalling Russian progress. This contributed to market price declines for near-term capture outcomes.
Russians march into Kostiantynivka after dam blast, but withdraw quickly
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%28%
ISW reported that Russian troops briefly entered Kostiantynivka after blowing up a key dam but were forced to withdraw, highlighting a temporary gain but overall inability to hold the city. Traders interpreted this as a setback for a June capture, contributing to the sharp fall of the “June 30, 2026” probability from 61 % to 33 % within the week.
Russian forces briefly capture parts of Kostyantynivka after destroying key dam
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%4%
Russian troops managed a short-lived incursion into Kostyantynivka following the destruction of a dam that flooded supply routes, but Ukrainian forces quickly counterattacked and regained control, demonstrating the contested nature of the city.
Russian troops briefly enter Kostyantynivka but are quickly expelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian forces managed a short incursion into Kostyantynivka after destroying a key dam to flood supply routes, but Ukrainian mechanized brigades swiftly counterattacked and expelled them, demonstrating resilient defense and lowering capture expectations.
Russian forces briefly enter Kostyantynivka but are quickly repelled by Ukrainian brigade
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian assault groups managed to enter Kostyantynivka after destroying a key dam to flood supply routes, but Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and expelled them, demonstrating Ukrainian resilience and limiting Russian territorial gains.
Ukrainian brigade repels Russian assault groups in Kostyantynivka area
May 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
The Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade drove out Russian assault groups from areas near Kostyantynivka, demonstrating strong defense and preventing Russian capture, which contributed to sharp market declines in near-term capture odds.
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repels Russian assault in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
In early March, Ukrainian forces successfully drove out Russian assault groups from Khutir near Kostyantynivka after Russians destroyed a dam to flood supply routes. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and hindered Russian capture efforts, contributing to market price stabilization and slight decline.
Russian 13th Assault Company infiltrates southwestern Kostyantynivka but fails to hold
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Around February 23, the Russian 13th Assault Company infiltrated the Khutir neighborhood in southwestern Kostyantynivka but was unable to maintain control. This demonstrated Russian tactical attempts to capture parts of the city but also Ukrainian resilience, which likely contributed to the market's cautious stance.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka after Russian dam destruction
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%9%
Russian forces destroyed a key dam to flood supply routes and launched assaults but Ukrainian troops successfully repelled these attacks, maintaining control over central areas. This resilience tempered market expectations for a quick Russian capture by June 2026.
Russian forces briefly enter Kostyantynivka but are repelled by Ukrainian defenders
June 30, 2026 drops to 48%13%
Russian troops managed to enter parts of Kostyantynivka in early March 2026 but were unable to hold the city due to strong Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. The battle remained intense with both sides holding positions within the city.
Russian forces restore partial communications and continue attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
A Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Russian forces restored 50-60% of their pre-Starlink communication capabilities and continued drone and artillery strikes near Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces also advanced in the tactical area, indicating ongoing intense fighting without decisive Russian capture.
Ukrainian Forces Advance South and Southeast of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%9%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces making tactical advances south and southeast of Kostyantynivka, demonstrating active resistance and pushing back Russian forward positions.
Ukraine appoints new chief of staff amid war‑time pressure
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
President Zelenskyy named Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff, a move seen as strengthening Ukraine’s intelligence and operational capacity, but also indicating internal reshuffling that raised doubts about Kyiv’s ability to hold front‑line towns like Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka throughout March
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%10%
Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka, maintaining control over key areas including the central railway station. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and slowed Russian progress, impacting market confidence in near-term capture.
ISW reports continued Russian advances and Ukrainian counter‑attack near Kostyantynivka on Mar 5, 2026
June 30, 2026 drops to 67%6%
The ISW March 5 assessment noted Russian forces advancing still near Kostyantynivka and a claimed Russian milblogger report of a Ukrainian counter‑attack. The mixed signals nudged the “June 30 2026” probability down as traders re‑evaluated Russian momentum.
ISW: Russian attacks intensify, Ukrainian counter‑attacks near Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 56%1%
ISW’s March‑5 assessment said Russian forces had intensified attacks near Kostyantynivka and that Ukrainian forces were counter‑attacking, indicating a fluid front; the market responded with a rise for the Sep‑30 outcome as expectations of a later capture grew.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka in March
May 31, 2026 plunges to 20%31%
Throughout March, Ukrainian troops successfully repelled Russian assaults within Kostyantynivka, maintaining control over key areas including the central railway station. This solidified Ukrainian defense and contributed to market declines in short-term capture probabilities.
Russia intensifies foreign fighter recruitment for Ukraine war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 53%18%
Moscow’s push to enlist foreign volunteers and offer cash bonuses increased troop numbers, reinforcing expectations of sustained offensives near Kostyantynivka and contributing to price declines.
Car bomb kills Russian Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
The assassination of a senior Russian general, blamed on Ukrainian intelligence, underscored heightened security risks for Russian leadership and suggested possible Ukrainian retaliation, prompting a sharp drop in the June‑30, 2026 price from 79% to 71%.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no advances
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but failed to advance. Ukrainian forces reported regaining territory since the start of 2026, reinforcing the perception of strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian progress.
Russian forces claim control of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
The Kremlin released a video claiming Russian troops had taken control of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, attempting to project strength ahead of high-level peace talks.
Russian forces significantly intensify offensive operations against Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
In March 2026, Russian forces launched intensified assaults on Kostyantynivka, including a platoon-sized mechanized attack, with the military command setting a deadline to seize the city by May 2026. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled many assaults, maintaining control over key areas such as the railway station.
Russia intensifies offensive operations against Kostyantynivka with May deadline
Russian forces significantly increased attacks on Kostyantynivka in March 2026, with Ukrainian officials reporting a Russian military command deadline to seize the city by May 2026. This escalation raised market expectations for eventual Russian capture, though near-term success remained uncertain.
Russian forces advance east of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian advances east of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces continued to repel assaults, reflecting a stalemate and causing mixed market reactions.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations against Kostyantynivka with deadline set for May 2026
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
In March 2026, Russian military command set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026 and conducted mechanized assaults, signaling a major push. This raised market confidence in a near-term capture, reflected in price increases for earlier dates.
Russia intensifies Kostyantynivka offensive in March, sets May deadline
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%27%
In early March 2026 ISW reported that Russian forces significantly intensified operations and set a May 2026 deadline for taking Kostyantynivka. The surge in aggression caused the June‑30 market probability to plunge from 61 % to 34 % over the following weeks.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kostyantynivka throughout March
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%11%
Ukrainian troops successfully repelled multiple Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka during March 2026, maintaining control over key positions including the central railway station, which dampened market expectations for a near-term Russian capture.
Russia announces deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus
May 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
The activation of nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus heightened strategic tensions and suggested Russia was preparing for broader offensives, pushing down the May‑31 outcome price.
Russian forces launch a massive drone barrage on Odesa, killing civilians
A large‑scale drone attack on the southern city of Odesa resulted in civilian casualties, underscoring Russia’s willingness to use high‑intensity strikes and suggesting a broader push on the front lines, which weighed on market expectations for a swift capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian military command sets May 2026 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
In March 2026, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces significantly intensified offensive operations against Kostyantynivka, with the Russian military command setting a deadline to capture the city by May 2026. This raised market expectations for a near-term capture, reflected in early price movements.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Russian President Putin publicly warned that Russia would seek to extend territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, reinforcing Moscow’s military objectives and impacting market confidence by reducing near-term capture probabilities but sustaining longer-term expectations.
Russia maintains maximalist demands in stalled peace talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 68%11%
Russia insisted on full recognition of seized territories and rejected ceasefire until a comprehensive settlement, prolonging conflict uncertainty. This stance contributed to a decline in market confidence for mid-2026 capture dates.
Ukrainian forces capture Russian soldier at Kostyantynivka railway station
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
The March‑2026 phase of fighting saw Ukrainian troops capture a Russian soldier near the railway station, indicating Ukrainian control of the city centre and a successful defence that turned market sentiment downwards, matching the price trough on Mar 1 (December‑31 outcome fell to 85 %).
Kremlin says progress in US‑Ukraine‑Russia peace talks but no breakthrough
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted constructive talks in Abu Dhabi yet no major breakthrough, reinforcing expectations that Russia would continue its military push, including toward Kostyantynivka, while diplomatic avenues stalled.
Ukrainian commander says Russia aims to capture Kostiantynivka by May 2026
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
The Ukrainian commander warned that Russia had set a deadline to seize Kostiantynivka by May 2026. The explicit deadline raised market expectations of a Russian capture before the end of May, shifting the September‑30 probability upward from 50 % to 54 % (priceBefore: 50, priceAfter: 54).
Russian military command sets May 2026 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
In March 2026, Russian military command intensified offensive operations and mechanized assaults around Kostyantynivka, setting a deadline to capture the city by May 2026. This raised market confidence in eventual capture by later dates but uncertainty remained as fighting continued.
Russian forces significantly intensify offensive operations against Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
In March 2026, Russian military command set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026 and launched intensified mechanized assaults. This increased offensive pressure caused market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome to peak, reflecting expectations of eventual capture.
Russia intensifies offensive operations against Kostyantynivka with May 2026 capture deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Russian forces significantly increased their offensive efforts in March 2026, setting a military command deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026, signaling a focused campaign that influenced market expectations.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations against Kostyantynivka with May deadline set
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
In March 2026, Russian military command significantly increased offensive efforts against Kostyantynivka, setting a deadline to capture the city by May 2026. This escalation raised market confidence in a near-term Russian capture, reflected in rising prices for later dates.
FAB‑3000 glide‑bomb strike hits southwestern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
ISW reported a FAB‑3000 guided glide‑bomb strike by Russian forces on southwestern Kostyantynivka. The episode was taken as evidence that Russia was still mounting offensive operations, lifting market confidence that Russia could capture the city by the end of 2026. The price for the December‑31, 2026 outcome rose from the low‑80s to a peak of 91 % on 8 Feb before falling back, reflecting the brief optimism generated by the strike.
Russia employs white‑phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Reports of Russia using white‑phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka highlighted the intensity of the fighting but also underscored the difficulty of taking the city, prompting a modest pull‑back in the market’s “December 31, 2026” odds from the early‑January high.
ISW reports Russian artillery and drone preparations near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
On February 27, ISW reported Russian forces began artillery and drone preparations for a spring-summer offensive near Kostyantynivka, including use of white phosphorus munitions. Ukrainian forces maintained control over key positions, indicating a contested battlefield and contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces attack Kostyantynivka residential area with phosphorus munitions
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Russian forces used white phosphorus munitions and a FAB-1500 guided bomb in strikes on Kostyantynivka, causing civilian harm and destruction but not securing territorial gains. This brutal tactic highlighted the intensity of fighting but did not translate into a decisive Russian advance, tempering market expectations.
Russian forces use white phosphorus munitions in strikes near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
On February 27, Russian forces conducted strikes using white phosphorus munitions against southwestern Kostyantynivka, indicating escalation in the intensity and brutality of attacks. This did not translate into territorial gains but worsened the humanitarian situation and underscored the difficulty of capturing the city.
Russia uses white‑phosphorus strike on Kostyantynivka, no territorial gain
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Geolocated footage released on 27 Feb showed Russian forces striking southwestern Kostyantynivka with white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb. The attack highlighted intense Russian firepower but did not change frontline positions, prompting the market to lower the probability of a Russian capture by year‑end.
Russian forces likely use white phosphorus in Kostyantynivka, raising humanitarian concerns
Geolocated footage showed Russian use of white phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka, possibly affecting civilians and violating international law. This intensified fighting and humanitarian issues may have influenced market perceptions of the difficulty of Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces capture Russian servicemember near Kostyantynivka train station
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian servicemember near the Kostyantynivka Train Station, indicating Ukrainian control of key areas and suggesting Russian advances were limited, which likely pressured the market probability downward.
Russian forces strike Kostyantynivka residential area with prohibited phosphorus munitions
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
Russian troops used banned phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka, causing severe destruction and civilian danger. This highlighted the brutal nature of the conflict and the difficulty of Russian forces to secure the city, impacting market perceptions negatively for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces capture Russian soldier near Kostyantynivka train station
May 31, 2026 plunges to 24%27%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops capturing a Russian soldier in central Kostyantynivka, indicating Ukrainian control over key infrastructure and dampening short-term Russian capture probabilities.
Russian forces attack Kostyantynivka with phosphorus munitions and FAB-1500 bomb
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
On February 27, geolocated footage and Ukrainian brigade reports confirmed Russian use of white phosphorus munitions and a FAB-1500 guided glide bomb against southwestern Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified Russian offensive efforts. This escalation raised concerns about the potential for Russian capture, temporarily supporting market confidence.
Russia bombards Kostyantynivka with white‑phosphorus and glide‑bomb strike
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Geolocated footage released on Feb 27 showed Russian forces using white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb against southwestern Kostyantynivka, signalling an escalation in firepower and a possible push to seize the town. The heightened destructive strike pushed market participants to view a Russian capture as more likely, lifting the June 30 probability from 61 % to 72 %.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka While Russia Makes Marginal Gains to the East
June 30, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces made only marginal advances to the east, boosting confidence in Ukrainian defense timelines.
Ukrainian Forces Maintain Control of Central Kostyantynivka Train Station
June 30, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier near the central train station, proving that Ukraine maintained control of the city center despite Russian advances.
Russian forces conduct glide bomb strike and drone attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
On February 27, Russian forces used FAB-3000 guided glide bombs and drones to strike Ukrainian forces in southwestern Kostyantynivka, intensifying battlefield air interdiction ahead of a planned spring-summer offensive. Despite this, Ukrainian forces maintained control, tempering market optimism.
White‑phosphorus munition used in strike on Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%3%
ISW documented a white‑phosphorus strike on southwestern Kostiantynivka, raising questions about Russian tactics and further eroding market confidence that Russia would seize the city by year‑end; the "December 31, 2026" price slipped from 87 % to 84 % by early March.
Russian forces conduct guided glide bomb strike in southwestern Kostyantynivka
On February 27, Russian forces used FAB-3000 guided glide bombs against Ukrainian positions in southwestern Kostyantynivka, signaling intensified offensive operations. Despite this, Ukrainian forces maintained positions, and the market price remained stable around 89%.
Ukrainian forces capture Russian servicemember near Kostyantynivka train station
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops capturing a Russian soldier in central Kostyantynivka, demonstrating Ukrainian control over key infrastructure and challenging Russian claims of full control.
Ukrainian forces capture Russian soldier near Kostyantynivka train station
June 30, 2026 drops to 73%9%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier in central Kostyantynivka, indicating Ukrainian control over key areas and dampening near-term market confidence in Russian capture by June 2026.
Ukrainian forces maintain control over Kostyantynivka train station amid Russian attacks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
ISW reported Ukrainian servicemembers captured a Russian soldier near the Kostyantynivka train station, indicating Ukrainian control of a strategic point. Concurrent Russian use of white phosphorus and drone strikes showed intense fighting but no decisive Russian gain, tempering market optimism for near-term capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain control over Kostyantynivka train station amid ongoing fighting
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier near the Kostyantynivka train station, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance. This likely tempered market expectations for a quick Russian capture, contributing to price decline.
Ukrainian troops capture Russian soldier near Kostyantynivka railway station
June 30, 2026 plunges to 45%16%
Footage showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier near the central railway station, signaling Ukrainian control over a strategic point in Kostyantynivka. This event reinforced Ukrainian defensive success and reduced market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russian forces use white phosphorus munitions in Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 77%5%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes with white phosphorus munitions against southwestern Kostyantynivka, potentially violating international law and indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture the city. This escalated the conflict's severity and influenced market perceptions of the battle's intensity.
Russian forces hit Kostyantynivka residential area with phosphorus munitions
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 27, Russian forces attacked Kostyantynivka with phosphorus munitions followed by a large aerial bomb, causing civilian casualties and indicating intensified Russian offensive efforts. This attack highlighted the severity of the conflict in the area but did not translate into territorial gains, contributing to a slight market price decline.
Russian forces destroy dam near Kostyantynivka, flooding supply routes
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Russia used a guided bomb to destroy a dam near Kostyantynivka, flooding a key supply road and attempting to strangle the city's garrison, but Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assault groups shortly after.
Russians briefly capture Kostyantynivka but are driven out by Ukrainian counterattack
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Russian forces destroyed a dam to flood supply routes and briefly entered Kostyantynivka, but the Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade counterattacked and expelled Russian assault groups. This Ukrainian success reduced market confidence in a Russian capture, causing a price dip.
Russian 13th Assault Company infiltrates southwestern Kostyantynivka after dam destruction
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Around February 23, Russian forces infiltrated the Khutir neighborhood in southwestern Kostyantynivka following the destruction of a dam that flooded routes and hindered Ukrainian reinforcements, marking a pivotal moment in the battle. This infiltration raised concerns about Russian advances but did not result in full capture, impacting market confidence.
Russian forces briefly enter Kostyantynivka but are repelled by Ukrainian counterattack
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Reports indicated Russian troops marched into Kostyantynivka after destroying a key dam to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, but Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade quickly drove out Russian assault groups, demonstrating Ukrainian resilience and limiting Russian gains.
Russian forces destroy dam near Kostyantynivka, flooding supply routes
September 30, 2026 jumps to 62%12%
Russia destroyed a dam near Kostyantynivka to flood a key supply road, aiming to isolate the city and weaken Ukrainian defenses. This tactical move increased pressure but did not yield immediate capture, causing mixed market reactions.
Russian Forces Destroy Osykove Dam Near Kostyantynivka to Disrupt Ukrainian Logistics
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Russian forces used a three-ton guided bomb to destroy a key dam in Osykove, flooding the vital Druzhkivka-Kostyantynivka supply road and briefly entering the outskirts before being repelled.
Russian forces destroy dam near Kostyantynivka to flood supply routes
May 31, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Russia destroyed a dam near Kostyantynivka to flood and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, attempting to strangle the city's garrison. This tactical move increased pressure but did not lead to immediate capture, reflected in market volatility.
Russian forces destroy dam near Kostyantynivka to flood supply routes
June 30, 2026 jumps to 78%6%
On February 26, Russian forces bombed the Khrushchove Reservoir dam west of Kostyantynivka with a three-ton guided bomb, flooding the vital Druzhivka-Kostyantynivka supply road and attempting to strangle Ukrainian reinforcements. This action was part of a broader Russian effort to capture the city but was met with Ukrainian counterattacks that pushed Russian assault groups back, stabilizing the situation temporarily.
Russia bombs dam, floods Kostyantynivka supply road
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russian forces destroyed a dam near Kostyantynivka with a three‑ton guided bomb, flooding the main supply road and cutting Ukrainian logistics. The loss of a critical GLOC raised doubts about Ukrainian ability to hold the city, nudging the market toward a higher capture probability.
Russian forces intensify efforts near Kostyantynivka but fail to dislodge Ukrainian defenders
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
On February 25, reports indicated Russian forces increased attacks in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but failed to dislodge Ukrainian troops from key positions, with assessments suggesting Russia had two to three months left in spring 2026 to seize Kostyantynivka. This tempered market optimism about a swift Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Kostyantynivka but fail to dislodge Ukrainian defenders
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka but failed to dislodge Ukrainian troops from key positions, with command and control disrupted by Ukrainian strikes. This indicated a limited Russian offensive capability, tempering expectations of a quick capture.
Assessment warns Russian forces have limited time to seize Kostyantynivka before summer offensive
Analysts assessed Russian forces have two to three months left in spring 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka to prepare for a summer offensive. Despite attacks, Russian forces failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from key positions, indicating a challenging campaign ahead.
Russian forces fail to dislodge Ukrainian troops from southwestern Chasiv Yar near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Despite recent efforts, Russian forces were unable to push Ukrainian defenders from southwestern Chasiv Yar, northeast of Kostyantynivka, signaling stalled Russian advances and limiting the likelihood of a near-term capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 24-25, Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka but failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders, with disrupted command and control due to blocked Starlink terminals. This limited Russian progress and cast doubt on their ability to capture the city soon, causing a slight market price decrease.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment highlights limited time to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Analysts assessed that Russian forces had only two to three months left in spring 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka to prepare for a summer offensive, indicating a critical timeline for the market.
Assessment warns Russia has limited spring window to seize Kostyantynivka
Analysts reported Russian forces had two to three months left in spring 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka to prepare for a summer offensive, but noted Russian command disruptions and Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces have two to three months left in spring 2026 to seize Kostyantynivka, but face strong Ukrainian resistance
Analysts assessed that Russian forces must capture Kostyantynivka by late spring to prepare for a summer offensive, but Ukrainian forces successfully repelled attacks and disrupted Russian command, limiting Russian advances and tempering market optimism.
Russian forces face critical spring deadline to seize Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka
Analysts assessed that Russian forces had two to three months left in spring 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka to set conditions for a summer offensive, but noted failures to dislodge Ukrainian forces from key positions, indicating challenges ahead.
Military Analyst Assesses Russia Has Two to Three Months to Seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that Russian forces have a limited window in Spring 2026 to capture Kostyantynivka to set conditions for a summer offensive, highlighting the high stakes and time pressure on Russian operations.
Ukraine repels massive Russian missile and drone attack
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
On February 25-26, Ukraine's air defense successfully neutralized over 400 Russian air attack weapons, including hypersonic missiles and drones, preventing catastrophic damage. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and capability to hold territory, supporting market confidence in Ukrainian defense near Kostyantynivka.
Russian Ministry of Defence spreads false claim of capturing Rizdvyanka village
The Russian Ministry of Defence circulated disinformation about capturing Rizdvyanka in Zaporizhzhia, which Ukrainian forces refuted. This contributed to skepticism about Russian territorial claims and affected market sentiment on the likelihood of Russian advances including Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but fail to dislodge Ukrainians from key positions
June 30, 2026 jumps to 78%5%
Despite ongoing attacks and some territorial gains nearby, Russian forces failed to push Ukrainian defenders from southwestern Chasiv Yar, indicating limits to their offensive capabilities and delaying capture prospects.
Russian forces face setbacks in Kostyantynivka despite intensified attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
On February 25, military analyst Mashovets reported that Russian forces failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from southwestern Chasiv Yar near Kostyantynivka, assessing that Russia had only two to three months left in spring 2026 to seize Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. This tempered market optimism about a quick Russian capture.
Assessment: Russian forces have two to three months left in spring 2026 to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Military analysts assessed that Russian forces must capture Kostyantynivka by late spring to set conditions for a summer offensive, but noted failures to dislodge Ukrainian defenders in key areas. This tempered market optimism, reflected in price fluctuations around late February.
Border guards release haunting footage of ruined Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 63%10%
Border‑guard video showed extensive ruin in Kostyantynivka, underscoring the city’s devastation and the difficulty of a Russian capture. The market’s “June 30 2026” price dropped from 73 % (earlier in February) to 63 % by early March, reflecting reduced capture confidence.
Russian forces advance east and south of Kostyantynivka but fail to dislodge Ukrainian defenders
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage and military observer reports confirmed Russian advances near Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces held key positions, indicating a protracted battle. Market confidence slightly fluctuated reflecting ongoing fighting without decisive Russian gains.
Ukraine releases footage showing ongoing control of Kostyantynivka amid Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service released video footage on February 25, 2026, showing Ukrainian troops moving freely in Kostyantynivka, debunking Russian claims of capture and demonstrating continued Ukrainian control. This maintained market skepticism about near-term Russian capture.
Russian offensive assessment highlights limited progress near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Reports indicated Russian forces had two to three months left in spring 2026 to seize Kostyantynivka but had failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders in nearby areas. This tempered expectations of rapid capture and contributed to market price volatility.
Russian forces advance east of Kostyantynivka but fail to dislodge Ukrainian defenders
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing east of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian military observers reported that Russian forces failed to dislodge Ukrainian troops from key positions, indicating a stalemate and limited Russian progress. This tempered market optimism about a quick Russian capture.
Russian Air Force Destroys Khrushchove Reservoir Dam Near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 rises to 72%1%
Russian forces bombed and destroyed a vital dam to flood the area west of the city, blocking the main route for Ukrainian reinforcements and aiding Russian infiltration.
Russian air force destroys dam near Kostyantynivka to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
On February 24, Russian forces bombed the dam across the Khrushchove Reservoir west of Kostyantynivka, flooding key supply routes and attempting to isolate the city. This was part of a broader Russian effort to strangle the city's garrison and facilitate an assault, but Ukrainian counterattacks pushed Russians back shortly after.
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine’s critical energy facilities, aiming to weaken civilian morale and military logistics. This escalation increased uncertainty and pressure on Ukraine, contributing to market volatility and declines in near-term capture probabilities.
Russian forces infiltrate southwestern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Around February 23, Russian 13th Assault Company infiltrated the Khutir neighborhood in southwestern Kostyantynivka but failed to capture the city, leading to attempts to isolate and strangle the Ukrainian garrison. This showed limited Russian progress, supporting a slight price increase then stabilization.
Moscow court orders Euroclear to compensate Russia’s central bank for frozen assets
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
The court ruling promised Russia a massive financial windfall, bolstering its war‑funding capacity and encouraging a more aggressive campaign, which further depressed the market’s longer‑term capture odds.
Russian forces intensify attacks and drone strikes in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On February 23, Russian drone operators and motorized rifle regiments conducted strikes against Ukrainian forces in western and southwestern Kostyantynivka, with artillery targeting southern areas. These operations indicated increased Russian efforts to capture the city but did not result in a decisive breakthrough, supporting the market's initial high confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces conduct drone and artillery strikes around Kostyantynivka but fail to seize key terrain
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 23, Russian drone operators and artillery units struck Ukrainian forces in and around Kostyantynivka, including infiltration missions on the southwestern outskirts. However, these did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of battle area, indicating limited Russian progress. This maintained market confidence but highlighted ongoing conflict.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
On February 22 and 23, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka from several directions and conducted infiltration missions, though these did not change control of terrain. This sustained pressure maintained market interest but reflected ongoing contested control.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Russian forces made recent advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, signaling ongoing offensive efforts. This raised market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026, reflected in a price increase to 87%.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On February 22, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make territorial gains, indicating stalled progress in their offensive. This maintained high market confidence but showed limits to Russian advances.
Russian infiltration near Kostyantynivka reported by ISW
ISW noted new Russian infiltration missions southwest of Novomarkove and milbloggers claimed a modest advance near Kostyantynivka. The market registered a small uptick for “December 31 2026”, reflecting a brief rise in capture expectations.
Russia deploys new Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missile system in Belarus
June 30, 2026 plunges to 56%22%
The announcement of Oreshnik missiles entering service signaled a strategic escalation, prompting markets to reassess the timeline for Russian offensives, especially near the June deadline.
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
The activation of Oreshnik missile systems signaled a boost in Russian strategic firepower, suggesting a stronger position for ground operations near Kostyantynivka, further depressing market confidence.
Car bomb kills Russian General Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
The assassination of a senior Russian general was blamed on Ukrainian intelligence, highlighting the intensity of the conflict and prompting Russian authorities to tighten security and potentially accelerate offensive operations in contested areas like Kostyantynivka.
Russia declares its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missile system entered active service
Moscow announced that the Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile system is now operational, signalling a boost in Russia’s strike capability and prompting traders to expect faster Russian advances in Ukraine, including the capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russia declares its Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missile system entered active service in Belarus
June 30, 2026 plunges to 63%15%
Moscow announced the deployment of Oreshnik missiles, signalling a heightened Russian military posture and suggesting a push for further territorial gains, which lowered confidence in a delayed capture of Kostyantynivka.
U.S.‑led peace framework stalls as Russia rejects key concessions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 71%18%
During high‑level talks in Miami, Russian officials reiterated they would not accept any Ukrainian withdrawal from territories it has not yet seized, dampening hopes of a cease‑fire and prompting a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome.
U.S. gives Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to end the war
May 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
President Zelenskyy announced that the United States set a June 2026 deadline for a peace deal, temporarily reducing expectations of a rapid Russian capture of Kostyantynivka and causing a dip in the market’s odds.
ISW reports limited Russian control in Kostyantynivka area despite claims
On February 19-20, ISW assessed that Russian forces controlled only about 7% of Kostyantynivka, with ongoing fighting and Ukrainian resistance preventing full capture. This tempered expectations of rapid Russian success, contributing to market price fluctuations.
Russian forces achieve peak advances near Kostyantynivka but face counterattacks
June 30, 2026 surges to 76%15%
Russian forces reached a high point in territorial gains near Kostyantynivka in February 2026, but Ukrainian counterattacks and resource constraints limited further progress, causing market prices for June 30, 2026 capture to decline.
ISW notes spike in Russian incursions near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%6%
ISW reported a surge in Russian infiltrations around Kostyantynivka in late February, raising the probability of a capture by the end of 2026 and boosting the December 31 2026 price to a record high.
Kremlin Claims Control of Over Half of Kostyantynivka Amid Ukrainian Refutals
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian General Rudskoy claimed Russian forces control more than half of Kostyantynivka, which ISW and Ukrainian commanders refuted, stating Russia only has presence in seven percent of the city.
Kremlin claims Russia controls over half of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
On Feb 20 Russian officials claimed to control “more than half” of Kostyantynivka, a statement that, despite being disputed, suggested imminent capture and lifted confidence in a Russian win, contributing to the June 30 odds jump.
Ukraine's military commander reports recapturing territory
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian troops had recaptured nearly 50 square kilometers of territory, signaling continued resistance and complicating Russian offensive goals.
Russian general Fanil Sarvarov killed in Moscow car bomb, blamed on Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 47%14%
The assassination of Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, a senior Russian commander, suggested heightened Ukrainian covert activity and potential disruption of Russian command structures, reducing confidence in Russia’s offensive momentum toward Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian counteroffensive liberates territory near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
In February 2026, Ukrainian forces launched a successful counteroffensive, liberating 257 km² including areas near Kostyantynivka, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to regain ground despite Russian numerical superiority. This counteroffensive challenged Russian claims of inevitable victory and likely caused market adjustments reflecting reduced near-term Russian capture chances.
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
December 31, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russia announced deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus, signaling military strength and intent to extend gains in Ukraine, which could influence perceptions of Russia's offensive capabilities and timelines for capturing Kostyantynivka.
Ukraine releases haunting footage showing destruction in Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service released video footage highlighting the extensive destruction in Kostyantynivka due to Russian bombardment, emphasizing fierce resistance and ongoing conflict. This reinforced perceptions of a protracted battle and lowered expectations for imminent Russian capture.
ISW: Russian mechanized assault intensifies around Kostyantynivka in late February
June 30, 2026 surges to 89%28%
ISW noted a surge of Russian activity and a mechanized assault in Kostyantynivka in late February, raising the June‑30, 2026 probability (from 61 % on Feb 19 to a peak of 89 % on Feb 20).
Russian forces intensify assaults on Kostyantynivka with set May 2026 capture deadline
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%1%
In March 2026, Russian military command set a deadline to seize Kostyantynivka by May 2026, intensifying offensive operations and mechanized assaults. This raised market confidence in capture by later dates but uncertainty remained as fighting continued.
Ukraine releases footage showing destruction in Kostyantynivka amid fierce fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service released footage highlighting the severe destruction in Kostyantynivka due to ongoing Russian attacks, underscoring the intensity of the battle and Ukrainian resistance, which tempered expectations for a quick Russian capture.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, Ukraine blamed
September 30, 2026 jumps to 57%7%
The assassination of a high-ranking Russian general in Moscow, attributed to Ukrainian intelligence, highlighted the ongoing covert conflict and pressure on Russian military leadership, influencing market perceptions of the war’s intensity and potential outcomes.
Russian General Fanil Sarvarov killed by car bomb in Moscow
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
The assassination of a senior Russian military officer in Moscow, with investigators pointing to Ukrainian intelligence, increased tensions and uncertainty regarding the conflict's trajectory.
Russian forces report capturing settlements they do not control
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Russian military commanders increasingly claimed capture of towns and villages on maps despite ongoing fighting or absence of control, a practice known as 'credit capturing.' This undermined confidence in Russian territorial gains near Kostyantynivka, causing market uncertainty and a price drop.
Russian advances near Kostyantynivka remain limited despite ongoing assaults
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
Geolocated footage and reports confirmed limited Russian advances southwest of Novomarkove near Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces repelling infiltration attempts, leading to a further decline in market confidence for capture by year-end.
Ukrainian 24th Brigade repels Russian assault on southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Ukrainian forces reported repelling a Russian assault on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, showing that the city remained in Ukrainian hands and preventing a near‑term capture, which corresponded with a modest price dip for the Dec‑31 outcome.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka amid freezing temperatures
In mid-February, Russian forces increased artillery, drone, and aviation strikes near Kostyantynivka despite freezing weather, focusing on interdiction of Ukrainian logistics rather than full combat operations. This sustained pressure maintained market confidence but did not lead to immediate capture.
Ukrainian forces advance in southern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%1%
On February 15, Ukrainian forces made advances in southern Kostyantynivka, indicating continued strong resistance and contestation of the city. This likely contributed to the market price bottoming out at 85% on February 16 before a slight recovery.
Russian troops penetrate south of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%1%
On February 16, Russian forces made limited penetrations south of Kostyantynivka, indicating continued offensive efforts but no decisive breakthrough, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Ukrainian forces double use of unmanned ground vehicles to sustain Kostyantynivka defense
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%1%
Ukrainian reliance on unmanned ground vehicles to maintain logistics under Russian interdiction highlighted strong defensive efforts, dampening market confidence in rapid Russian capture and contributing to the price trough.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Stepanivka near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
Russian claims of capturing nearby Stepanivka suggested incremental advances, but unconfirmed status and ongoing Ukrainian resistance contributed to market uncertainty and a further price decline.
Ukraine regains 400 sq mi in February, first net gain since 2024
May 31, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
General Komarenko told RBC‑Ukraine that Ukrainian forces had reclaimed 400 km² since the start of the counter‑offensive, marking the first month since 2024 where Ukraine gained more ground than it lost. The report underscored a growing Ukrainian momentum around Kostyantynivka, prompting traders to discount the odds of a Russian capture for the May‑31 deadline.
Ukrainian President appoints Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as new chief of staff
May 31, 2026 plunges to 3%48%
President Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, as chief of staff, signaling a focus on strong military leadership and intelligence operations. This appointment increased confidence in Ukraine’s defense capabilities, negatively impacting near-term Russian capture probabilities.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announces US security agreement is ready to be signed
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Zelenskyy stated that a US security guarantees document for Ukraine is fully prepared, signaling progress in diplomatic efforts. This development provided some market support for longer-term outcomes, as it suggested potential for a negotiated settlement, though territorial disputes remained unresolved.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka but fail to change control
December 31, 2026 drops to 85%5%
Despite Russian infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces maintained control, limiting Russian gains and causing a slight market dip in confidence for a timely Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 85%5%
Ukrainian troops successfully struck Russian forces during infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka, preventing territorial gains and signaling strong defense, which contributed to a slight market decline in capture probability.
Ukraine launches counteroffensive disrupting Russian plans in southern front
In February 2026, Ukraine launched a local counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, marking the largest Ukrainian offensive since 2023 and disrupting Russian preparations for their 2026 spring offensive. This slowed Russian advances and affected expectations for Russian territorial gains including Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces advance north of Yablunivka near Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage published on February 14 showed recent Russian advances north of Yablunivka, southwest of Kostyantynivka, indicating continued incremental territorial gains. This maintained pressure on Ukrainian defenses but did not signal a decisive breakthrough, consistent with stable market prices.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 14, Russian forces continued infiltration missions and limited advances near Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces retained control of key positions, sustaining the stalemate and market skepticism about imminent capture.
Ukrainian forces debunk Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
Ukrainian 19th Army Corps and 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade released video evidence showing Ukrainian troops freely moving in Kostyantynivka, refuting Russian claims of capture. This undermined market confidence in a near-term Russian capture, contributing to price declines for early capture dates.
Ukrainian forces report intensified Russian interdiction efforts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Ukrainian commanders noted that Russian forces focused on disrupting logistics around Kostyantynivka rather than direct assaults, increasing use of unmanned ground vehicles for supply, indicating a protracted battle and reducing capture likelihood in near term.
Russia uses new hypersonic missile in major Ukraine attack, signaling escalation
June 30, 2026 rises to 69%1%
Russia deployed its new hypersonic Oreshnik missile in a large-scale attack on Ukraine, killing civilians and sending a warning to the West. This escalation likely increased uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory, affecting market confidence in near-term Russian territorial gains such as Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026.
Ukrainian forces debunk Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Ukrainian 19th Army Corps and 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade released video evidence showing Ukrainian troops freely moving in Kostyantynivka, refuting Russian claims of capture. This undermined market confidence in a near-term Russian capture, contributing to price declines for early capture dates.
Ukrainian forces confirm control of Kostyantynivka, refuting Russian capture claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 14, Ukrainian military published video evidence showing Kostyantynivka under their control, directly countering Russian claims of capture and causing a dip in market confidence about Russian success by year-end.
Ukrainian forces refute Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
Ukrainian 19th Army Corps and 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade released video evidence showing Ukrainian troops freely moving in Kostyantynivka, debunking Russian claims of capture. This undermined Russian narratives and decreased market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian phosphorus strike, claims only 7 % of city held
December 31, 2026 dips to 74%3%
The brigade reported a phosphorus strike on a civilian district and said Russian forces held only ~7 % of Kostyantynivka. The assessment lowered confidence in a Russian capture, causing the “December 31, 2026” price to fall about 3 pts.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and Russian advances stall near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Around February 13, Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks near Kostyantynivka, and Russian advances stalled, causing a market price drop from 90% to 86%. The fighting remained intense but inconclusive, reflecting uncertainty about Russian capture timing.
Ukrainian brigade documents Russian phosphorus strike on Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 56%4%
The Ukrainian 28th Brigade released video showing a Russian phosphorus strike on a residential district of Kostyantynivka, confirming heavy Russian attacks. The news boosted the perceived likelihood of a Russian capture, lifting the September‑30‑2026 price from 52 % to 56 % the following day.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian phosphorus strike, says city still largely Ukrainian‑held
June 30, 2026 plunges to 50%18%
The brigade posted footage of a Russian phosphorus strike and confirmed that only ~7 % of Kostyantynivka was under Russian control, contradicting Russian claims and causing the June 30 market to tumble from 68 % to 50 %.
Market dip amid reports of Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian operational challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Between February 12 and 15, the market price dropped from 90% to 86%, coinciding with reports of Ukrainian counterattacks near Kostyantynivka and Russian forces focusing on interdiction rather than direct combat due to freezing temperatures. The increased Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges for Russia likely caused market uncertainty.
Ukrainian brigade documents Russian phosphorus strike in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 83%3%
The brigade released video showing a Russian phosphorus strike on a residential district of Kostyantynivka. The graphic evidence of a prohibited weapon heightened the perception that Russia was unable to take the city, pulling the Dec 31, 2026 price down another 3 points to 83 %.
Russian missile and drone barrage on Kyiv before US‑Ukrainian peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 86%3%
A massive Russian strike using missiles, drones and hypersonic weapons hit Kyiv, killing civilians and targeting infrastructure just hours before the second day of US‑Ukrainian negotiations in Abu Dhabi. The attack was interpreted as pressure on Kyiv, prompting a further price decline for the market’s outcomes.
Paul Thomas Anderson wins at Directors Guild Awards for ‘One Battle After Another’
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
While unrelated to the military conflict, the award for the film 'One Battle After Another' reflects cultural attention on the war, possibly influencing public and market sentiment indirectly about the conflict's progression and resolution timelines.
Market price drops amid continued Ukrainian resistance and Russian infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 13, the market price dropped from 90% to 86%, reflecting increased uncertainty as Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian infiltration groups and maintain control of Kostyantynivka despite ongoing Russian attacks and harsh weather conditions.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian bridges near Kostyantynivka to facilitate future offensives
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
On February 12, Russian forces conducted air strikes on Ukrainian bridges along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, aiming to degrade Ukrainian logistics and prepare for future offensives. Despite these efforts, no confirmed advances occurred, reflecting ongoing contested control and market caution.
Russian drones kill at least 12 in Dnipro as Zelenskyy announces new peace talks
May 31, 2026 plunges to 1%50%
A deadly Russian drone strike on a Dnipro bus killed at least 12 people, followed by Zelenskyy's announcement of new peace talks, causing a sharp price drop and increased market uncertainty.
Russia readies new offensive amid Iran war pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Amid the Iran conflict, analysts noted Russia was preparing fresh attacks in Ukraine, heightening fears of advances toward Kostyantynivka and pushing market odds lower.
Russian drones kill 12 mineworkers in Dnipro as peace talks stall
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
A deadly drone strike on a bus of mineworkers in Dnipro underscored Russia’s continued offensive pressure, prompting a further drop in market confidence for a June capture.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Kyiv ahead of Zelensky‑Trump talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
The attack, described as a "massive strike" using hypersonic missiles and drones, killed civilians and was timed just before high‑level US‑Ukraine talks, suggesting Russia was trying to pressure negotiations. The escalation caused the December‑31, 2026 outcome price to fall from 90% to 86%.
Russian forces launch a major drone barrage on eastern Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
A coordinated wave of Russian attack drones hit several towns in Donetsk province, including near Kostyantynivka, causing civilian casualties and signalling a renewed offensive. The surge in hostilities pushed the market down, lowering confidence in a quick Russian capture.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in US for peace talks amid Russian attacks on energy sites
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
Ukraine’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and other negotiators arrived in the U.S. to discuss peace agreement details, while Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, underscoring the tension between diplomacy and ongoing conflict, affecting market confidence especially for near-term capture dates.
Russian forces conduct air strikes on Ukrainian bridges near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 12, Russian forces conducted glide bomb and missile strikes on Ukrainian bridges along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, aiming to degrade Ukrainian logistics and facilitate future offensives. Despite these efforts, no confirmed territorial advances were made, indicating continued stalemate.
Putin claims Russian forces have seized Myrnohrad and Huliaipole ahead of Abu Dhabi talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian troops had taken full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia, asserting new gains just before high‑level peace talks. The claim suggested continued offensive momentum, but the timing of the announcement coincided with a market dip, indicating traders doubted the sustainability of such advances toward Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces conduct airstrikes on Ukrainian bridges near Kostyantynivka to facilitate offensive operations
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 12, Russian forces used glide bombs and air-to-surface missiles to strike Ukrainian bridges along the H-20 highway near Kostyantynivka, aiming to degrade Ukrainian logistics and support future offensives. Despite these strikes, no confirmed advances were made, maintaining market caution.
Russian forces conduct strikes on Ukrainian bridges near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%1%
On February 12, Russian forces targeted Ukrainian bridges along the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway with glide bombs and missiles to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and facilitate future offensives, indicating preparation for intensified operations around Kostyantynivka.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro bus kills at least 12 mineworkers
May 31, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
A Russian drone attack targeted a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro, killing at least 12 people and injuring several others. This attack occurred during a period of tense peace negotiations and heightened military activity, contributing to market volatility and downward price pressure on all outcomes.
Russian drone barrage kills three and wounds children in Odesa
June 30, 2026 drops to 78%11%
A heavy Russian drone attack on Odesa killed three civilians and injured dozens, underscoring intensified Russian pressure on Ukraine and prompting traders to lower the probability of a Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by mid‑year dates.
Russian troops advance slowly near Kostyantynivka, gains could aid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Russian troops made slow advances near Kostyantynivka, with gains potentially strengthening Moscow's position in peace negotiations, but no decisive capture occurred, tempering market optimism.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
May 31, 2026 plunges to 3%48%
Ukraine’s allies, including the U.S. and European countries, agreed on providing multilayered security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace deal with Russia is struck, including military support and monitoring ceasefires. This bolstered confidence in Ukraine's defense, reducing the likelihood of a quick Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by near-term dates.
Russian military intensifies drone and missile attacks in Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%11%
In early February 2026, Russia escalated drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, including power grids and residential areas, signaling continued military pressure. This heightened conflict raised doubts about rapid Russian territorial gains, contributing to a slight decline in short-term capture probabilities.
Russia nears capture of key Ukrainian towns after year of grinding assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian troops advanced slowly but steadily in eastern Ukraine, with Kostyantynivka identified as the next target, raising market expectations for eventual capture.
Russia identifies Kostyantynivka as next key target in Donetsk offensive
Russian military publicly declared Kostyantynivka as their next major objective, signaling intensified focus on capturing the city. This announcement likely reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture, supporting high contract prices.
Russia poised to capture Kostyantynivka soon, military experts say
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Military experts and battlefield monitors indicated that Russia was close to completing the capture of Kostyantynivka, raising market optimism about a near-term Russian victory. This news supported the market price remaining elevated in early February.
Russia targets Kostyantynivka as next key objective after year of grinding assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Reports highlighted Kostyantynivka as Russia's next major target following prolonged fighting, reinforcing market focus on the city's strategic importance but acknowledging slow progress.
Russia’s next target identified as Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
The New York Times identified Kostyantynivka as Russia’s next major target, raising expectations of a capture before year‑end. This contributed to the early‑2026 rise of the December‑31 market to 90 %.
Experts report Russia poised to capture Kostyantynivka soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
On February 10, military experts and independent monitors indicated that Russia was close to completing the capture of Kostyantynivka, signaling a likely eventual Russian victory in the area. This assessment likely supported the market's overall high probability and recovery to 89% by February 24.
Reports indicate Kostyantynivka is next major target for Russian forces
The New York Times reported on February 10 that Kostyantynivka is the next key target for Russian forces after a year of grinding assaults, highlighting the strategic importance but no confirmed capture yet. This aligns with the market price remaining steady at 90%, reflecting high but not certain likelihood of capture by end of 2026.
New York Times reports Kostyantynivka as Russia's next target
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
The New York Times identified Kostyantynivka as the next major target for Russian forces, signaling expectations of intensified fighting and potential Russian advances, which supported high market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
New York Times reports Russia nearing capture of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On February 10, The New York Times highlighted that Kostyantynivka is the next major target for Russian forces after a year of grinding assaults, signaling increased confidence in Russian prospects to capture the town, which likely influenced market optimism.
ISW says Russia set May 2026 deadline to seize Kostiantynivka
July 31, 2026 rises to 52%3%
The ISW assessment on 10 Feb noted that Russian commanders had set a deadline of May 2026 for capturing Kostiantynivka. The market interpreted the deadline as a sign of aggressive intent, pushing the “July 31 2026” probability up from 49 % to 52 % on 20 Feb.
Russia makes new advances near Kostyantynivka, signaling continued pressure
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
On February 10, reports highlighted Russian advances near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, with Kostyantynivka identified as the next target, reinforcing the perception of ongoing Russian pressure and potential eventual capture. This news likely contributed to a slight market recovery to 89%.
Reports indicate Kostyantynivka as next Russian target after year of assaults
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Media reports highlighted Kostyantynivka as the next key objective for Russian forces following prolonged grinding assaults, reinforcing market expectations of eventual Russian capture and contributing to price increases for nearer capture dates.
Russia declares Kostyantynivka next target after capturing key towns
Russian military leadership publicly identified Kostyantynivka as a strategic objective following their capture of nearby towns, signaling intent to intensify operations. This announcement likely supported market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russia declares Kostyantynivka as next target in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian military publicly identified Kostyantynivka as a key objective, signaling intensified focus on capturing the city, which increased market expectations for eventual Russian control.
Russia Nears Capture of Kostyantynivka, NYT reports
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
The New York Times reported that Russia was positioning its forces for an imminent capture of Kostyantynivka, calling the city the next major target. Traders interpreted the piece as a sign that a Russian breakthrough was near, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability down by three points the following day.
U.S.-Ukraine talks continue on security framework amid peace efforts
June 30, 2026 plunges to 25%36%
U.S. and Ukrainian officials held talks to advance a security framework to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, emphasizing the need for concrete guarantees to deter future Russian aggression. This diplomatic push supported Ukraine’s position and contributed to market skepticism about rapid Russian territorial gains.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
Ukraine’s allies, including the U.S. and European countries, agreed to provide multilayered security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression, bolstering Ukraine’s defense posture and influencing market expectations for the conflict’s resolution timeline.
Reports Highlight Kostyantynivka as Russia's Next Major Target
Media coverage highlighted that after grinding campaigns in other sectors, Russian forces were positioning Kostyantynivka as their next primary target, keeping the probability of capture high.
Reports indicate Russia nears capture of key Ukrainian towns including Kostyantynivka
The New York Times reported that Kostyantynivka is the next target for Russian forces after a year of grinding assaults, signaling a high likelihood of eventual capture. This news reinforced market expectations of capture by the end of 2026.
NYT: Russia’s next target is Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 90%3%
A NYT article highlighted that Kostyantynivka was the next major target for Russian forces, suggesting a strategic shift toward the city and nudging market odds upward for all later dates.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy appoints Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Zelenskyy named the head of military intelligence, Budanov, as his new chief of staff, signaling a shift to prioritize defense and intelligence amid critical moments in the war. This bolstered confidence in Ukraine's strategic capabilities, affecting market expectations for longer-term outcomes.
Russia advances near Kostyantynivka, naming it next target
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
The New York Times reported on February 10 that Russia was making new advances in southern Ukraine and identified Kostyantynivka as the next key target, signaling expectations of a future Russian offensive there. This news likely supported the market's high probability of Russian capture by year-end.
Reports identify Kostyantynivka as next Russian target after grinding assaults
The New York Times reported Kostyantynivka as the next major target for Russian forces, signaling continued offensive focus and sustaining market expectations for eventual capture, especially by year-end.
Reports confirm Kostyantynivka as next Russian target after year of assaults
The New York Times reported that Kostyantynivka is the next target for Russian forces following prolonged grinding assaults. This official recognition of the city's strategic importance likely reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russia nears capture of key Ukrainian towns after year of grinding assaults
Reports indicated that Kostyantynivka was the next target for Russian forces after prolonged assaults, suggesting a potential eventual capture but no immediate fall. This news initially supported a high probability of capture by year-end.
Russian drone attacks kill civilians and damage infrastructure in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Russia intensified drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and damaging critical infrastructure, which maintained pressure on Ukraine and influenced market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory.
Russian forces concentrate for staged capture of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian command focused efforts to capture Kostyantynivka in stages, deploying multiple army corps along key lines, sustaining market confidence in longer-term capture prospects.
Russian command concentrates forces aiming to capture Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka agglomeration in stages
June 30, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
Russian military observer reported Russian forces concentrating multiple divisions and regiments around Kostyantynivka with intent to capture the area in stages, but no decisive breakthrough occurred, maintaining uncertainty and causing market fluctuations.
ISW says Russian forces make only marginal gains in southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
ISW’s February 9 assessment reported marginal Russian advances in the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but noted that Ukrainian forces continued to repel attacks, signalling a slowdown in the Russian offensive. The market price for the December‑31 outcome fell from 89 % on Jan 29 to 86 % on Feb 17, reflecting reduced confidence in a capture by year‑end.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, including near key settlements and within the city itself, signaling a strong intent to capture the area. This sustained pressure initially supported a high market probability for Russian capture.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on February 8 and 9, 2026, attempting to advance in the tactical area. This sustained offensive raised market confidence in a potential capture but did not result in a breakthrough.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka but fail to secure city
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and its surroundings, aiming to capture the area in stages. However, Ukrainian forces held their positions, preventing Russian control of the city. This maintained high market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian command plans staged capture of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka agglomeration
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
On February 9, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian command intends to capture Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka in stages and then advance toward Kramatorsk. However, Russian advances remain slow and tactical, reflecting ongoing attritional warfare and limited immediate impact on market prices.
Russian command concentrates forces for staged capture of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka agglomeration
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian command plans to capture Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka in stages, concentrating forces along key lines. Despite this buildup, no confirmed capture occurred, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian forces intensify strikes and infiltration near Kostyantynivka amid poor weather
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
On February 7-8, Russian forces increased attacks near Kostyantynivka, taking advantage of poor weather to press assaults and conducting infiltration missions without confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reported striking back at Russian positions. This intensified combat activity likely contributed to the market peak at 91% on February 8.
Russian forces take advantage of poor weather to attack near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian troops exploited adverse weather conditions to launch attacks near Kostyantynivka, continuing pressure on Ukrainian defenses but without confirmed significant territorial gains, sustaining market expectations of eventual capture.
Russian drones kill three and wound children in Odesa
A large swarm of upgraded Russian drones struck Odesa, causing civilian casualties and demonstrating Russia’s expanding drone capabilities, which analysts linked to increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses near Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
On February 7 and 8, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka but did not make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces struck back against infiltration attempts, maintaining control. This stalemate contributed to market stabilization at a slightly lower level.
Russian forces continue infiltration missions southwest of Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Russian forces maintained infiltration operations near Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalled offensive and ongoing Ukrainian defense effectiveness.
Russian airstrike on Ukrainian city Kramatorsk kills one
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
A Russian airstrike on Kramatorsk killed one person and wounded two, causing a fire in a nine-story apartment block and contributing to market volatility.
Ukrainian forces capture five Russian attackers near Kostyantynivka amid harsh weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 7, Ukrainian soldiers near Kostyantynivka captured five Russian assault troops advancing during bad weather, demonstrating effective Ukrainian defense and disrupting Russian attacks. This event likely reduced confidence in a near-term Russian capture, contributing to a price drop from 90% to 86%.
Russian forces exploit poor weather to intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
A Ukrainian battalion commander reported on February 7 that Russian forces were taking advantage of poor weather conditions to launch attacks near Kostyantynivka, indicating sustained offensive pressure despite environmental challenges. This contributed to market optimism about Russian advances.
Russia strikes Ukraine’s capital with missiles and drones before Zelenskyy-Trump meeting
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%31%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv, killing at least one person, just before peace talks between Zelenskyy and Trump, signaling Moscow's unwillingness to pause military operations and affecting market confidence in near-term capture likelihoods.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 7, Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile strike campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and hardship. This intensified the conflict environment but did not directly affect territorial control near Kostyantynivka, contributing to market volatility.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka amid reports of low morale
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances north of Yablunivka near Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian spokesperson reported Russian assault troops suffering low morale and surrendering during infiltration missions. These mixed developments contributed to market volatility and slight price fluctuations.
Russian attacks kill and wound civilians ahead of second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi
June 30, 2026 drops to 68%10%
Russian drone attacks killed at least one person and wounded dozens in Kyiv and Kharkiv just as peace talks resumed, underscoring the ongoing violence and complicating diplomatic efforts. This likely maintained pressure on the market, limiting confidence in rapid Russian advances by June 30, 2026.
ISW says Russian infiltration into Kostyantynivka has stalled
June 30, 2026 plunges to 61%20%
ISW’s assessment noted that Russian forces had made their first infiltration into Kostyantynivka in October 2025 but had failed to gain significant ground in the following six months, tempering market optimism and driving the June‑30 probability down.
Russian forces seize nearby villages but fail to capture Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian troops advanced into villages northeast and south of Kostyantynivka but made no significant progress in capturing the city itself, maintaining the stalemate and market price near 90%.
Russian forces intensify offensive preparations near Kostyantynivka
ISW reported Russian forces setting conditions for future offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, using lessons from Pokrovsk, indicating increased military focus on capturing Kostyantynivka. This raised market expectations for capture by later dates.
Starlink Terminal Blocking Disrupts Russian Battlefield Coordination
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Reports indicated that the blocking of unregistered Starlink terminals affected Russian military operations, with milbloggers noting that the lack of connectivity would likely decrease the Russian operational tempo near Kostyantynivka.
US and Russia reestablish high-level military dialogue amid peace talks
The US and Russia resumed high-level military-to-military communication during ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi, aiming to reduce tensions. However, simultaneous Russian escalations in attacks on Ukraine's power grid maintained pressure on Kyiv, reflecting the complex and fragile nature of negotiations.
Russian Forces Make Localized Advances Near Yablunivka and Ivanopillya
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed minor Russian tactical advances southwest and south of Kostyantynivka, though operations remained heavily reliant on small-group infiltration.
US and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue after Ukraine talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
The US and Russia agreed to restore high-level military communication for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential easing of tensions and a framework for continued negotiations. This diplomatic development supported market optimism for a longer-term Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces unable to make significant progress fighting through Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Despite ongoing operations, Russian forces remained mostly reliant on small group infiltration missions and failed to achieve significant advances in Kostyantynivka, reflecting operational challenges and Ukrainian resistance.
ISW: Russian forces make only infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 plunges to 73%16%
The ISW February‑6 assessment noted Russian forces were still roughly 23 km from Slovyansk and making only small‑group infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka, causing the market’s “June 30” probability to slump sharply.
Russian forces focus on interdiction and infiltration near Kostyantynivka amid poor weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
By February 5, Russian forces concentrated on disrupting Ukrainian logistics and conducting infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka, taking advantage of adverse weather conditions. Ukrainian forces increased use of unmanned ground vehicles to sustain supply lines, indicating a stalemate and logistical contest rather than decisive territorial gains, influencing market sentiment downward.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
On February 5, Russian forces advanced in eastern Ivanopillya near Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces also made advances in the area. This indicated active combat with limited gains on both sides, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian and Ukrainian forces both advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing clashes
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
By February 5, both Russian and Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, with Russian forces attacking near and within Kostyantynivka and Ukrainian forces advancing in nearby Ivanopillya. The continued fighting without decisive Russian capture contributed to a slight market price decline.
Market dips amid ongoing Russian drone strikes and stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Continued Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, coupled with unresolved territorial disputes in peace talks, caused a market dip reflecting increased uncertainty about Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no significant advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
On February 5, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not achieve confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces also advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, indicating a contested frontline. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline from 90% to 86%.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On February 5, Ukrainian commanders reported that Russian forces were attempting to interdict Ukrainian logistics and infiltrate behind lines near Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces maintained control and eliminated infiltrators. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive strength, supporting market confidence in Ukrainian control.
U.S. and Russia reestablish high-level military dialogue following Abu Dhabi talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
The reestablishment of military-to-military communication channels between the U.S. and Russia, following peace talks in Abu Dhabi, signaled a potential de-escalation, leading to a decline in the likelihood of further Russian territorial gains.
Russian Forces Intensify Logistics Interdiction in Kostyantynivka Direction
A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that freezing temperatures led Russian forces to focus on interdicting ground lines of communication, forcing Ukrainian troops to double their reliance on unmanned ground vehicles.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid ongoing peace talks
May 31, 2026 drops to 40%11%
A Russian drone strike killed at least a dozen mineworkers in Dnipro, underscoring the ongoing violence despite diplomatic efforts. This event highlighted the persistent conflict and likely contributed to declining market confidence in near-term Russian territorial gains such as Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026.
US and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue amid Ukraine talks
The US and Russia agreed to restore military communication channels for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential easing of tensions and support for ongoing peace negotiations, which influenced market optimism for longer-term capture dates.
Ukrainian commander reports Russian focus on interdicting logistics near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 4, a Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces shifted focus to disrupting Ukrainian logistics rather than direct combat near Kostyantynivka, partly due to freezing temperatures. This forced Ukrainian forces to double their use of unmanned ground vehicles for supply, indicating sustained Ukrainian resistance and complicating Russian capture efforts.
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US aimed at ending the war took place amid ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, signaling both progress in negotiations and continued conflict. This contributed to market uncertainty about near-term capture of Kostyantynivka.
U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume in Abu Dhabi
May 31, 2026 plunges to 17%34%
A new round of U.S.-brokered talks took place amid ongoing fighting and missile strikes, signaling diplomatic efforts to end the war but with no breakthrough on territorial disputes. This increased uncertainty about near-term Russian territorial gains, leading to a drop in probabilities for early capture dates.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian focus on logistics interdiction near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that Russian forces have shifted efforts to interdict Ukrainian logistics using drones and remote mining, limiting direct combat due to freezing temperatures. This logistical pressure forced Ukraine to increase use of unmanned ground vehicles, indicating sustained but indirect Russian pressure without territorial gains.
Russian forces focus on interdicting Ukrainian logistics near Kostyantynivka amid freezing temperatures
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Due to freezing temperatures, Russian forces shifted focus to disrupting Ukrainian logistics rather than direct combat, forcing Ukrainian troops to rely more on unmanned ground vehicles for resupply. This tactical shift indicated limited Russian offensive momentum, influencing market sentiment downward.
Russian attacks kill and wound civilians ahead of US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks
Russian missile and drone attacks killed civilians and wounded dozens in Ukraine just before a second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, signaling Moscow's reluctance to halt hostilities and dampening market optimism for near-term Russian territorial gains.
Ukrainian troops debunk Russian claims of Kostyantynivka capture with video evidence
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On February 4, Ukrainian forces released video showing free movement around Kostyantynivka, refuting Russian claims of city capture. This reinforced the contested nature of the battle and contributed to the market price stabilizing around 90%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Russian forces intensify air interdiction and logistics interdiction near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
By February 4, Russian forces focused on battlefield air interdiction and interdicting Ukrainian logistics around Kostyantynivka, forcing Ukrainian forces to rely more on unmanned ground vehicles for resupply. Russian forces had not prioritized full seizure yet, maintaining a high but not certain market probability.
Russian forces intensify battlefield air interdiction near Kostyantynivka
Russian forces increased efforts to interdict Ukrainian logistics and prepare for future offensives near Kostyantynivka, but faced strong Ukrainian resistance and harsh weather conditions. This set the stage for ongoing contested fighting, impacting market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
Russia Intensifies Battlefield Air Interdiction Campaign Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%2%
Russian forces focused heavily on interdicting Ukrainian logistics and striking ground lines of communication to set conditions for a future offensive against the city.
Russian forces focus on interdicting Ukrainian logistics near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 52%9%
Due to freezing temperatures, Russian forces shifted focus from direct combat to disrupting Ukrainian logistics, forcing Ukraine to rely more on unmanned ground vehicles for supply. This tactical change suggested a slowdown in Russian advances, reflected in a slight market price decline for near-term capture dates.
Russia Intensifies Air Interdiction Campaign Around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Russian forces intensified their battlefield air interdiction campaign in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, focusing on disrupting Ukrainian logistics to set conditions for future offensive operations.
Fog and rain aid Russian troops in attempt to sever Kostyantynivka's main supply line
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Adverse weather grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, raising concerns about the city's vulnerability and impacting market optimism.
Russian troops seize opportunity to cut Kostyantynivka supply line amid fog and rain
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 3, Russian forces exploited poor weather conditions to attempt severing Kostyantynivka's main supply line, raising concerns about the city's vulnerability and increasing the likelihood of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
U.S. warns of extra sanctions as Russia vows new push toward Kostiantynivka
September 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
The U.S. State Department warned Russia that any further advances toward Kostiantynivka would trigger additional sanctions, while the Russian MoD announced a new offensive push. The heightened diplomatic pressure raised market confidence that Russia would intensify its assault, pushing the September 30 2026 probability up from 50 % to 56 % on 2026‑02‑03.
Russian forces exploit fog and rain to infiltrate near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Adverse weather grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian Center Group of Forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, raising concerns about the city's supply lines and potential fall. This heightened market uncertainty about Russian capture timing.
Russian infiltrators exploit fog to threaten Kostyantynivka's supply lines
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Fog and rain grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, threatening to sever the city's main supply line and increasing concerns about the city's vulnerability, reflected in a market price dip.
Russian troops seize key villages south and southwest of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Russian forces captured villages such as Berestok and Stepanivka near Kostyantynivka, aiming to strangle the city by cutting supply lines. This increased the likelihood of a near-term capture but Ukrainian forces continued to contest control.
Russian troops attempt to sever Kostyantynivka's main supply line amid adverse weather
September 30, 2026 rises to 54%4%
Russian forces sought to replicate their Pokrovsk offensive strategy to isolate Kostyantynivka by targeting supply routes. Fog and rain conditions in early February 2026 were seen as potentially aiding Russian efforts to strangle the city, raising concerns about the city's defense.
Russian troops exploit fog and rain to infiltrate near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Adverse weather conditions grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, raising concerns about the city's vulnerability and impacting market confidence.
Russian buildup around key villages threatens Kostyantynivka supply line
September 30, 2026 jumps to 58%8%
Euromaidan Press quoted the intelligence team saying Russian forces were building up around Berestok, Stepanivka and Illinivka – villages that control the main supply routes to Kostyantynivka. The analysis heightened expectations of a swift encirclement, pushing the “September 30 2026” odds upward during the early‑February swing.
Russian forces build up around Berestok and Illinivka near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian troops increased their presence around Berestok and Illinivka, positioning for an offensive to sever Kostyantynivka's supply lines, raising concerns about an imminent assault. This buildup contributed to early market uncertainty about the city's fate by mid-2026.
Fog and rain ground Ukrainian drones, aiding Russian infiltration near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
Adverse weather on January 31 grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka. This tactical opportunity raised concerns about the city's vulnerability, reflected in a price trough at 86%.
Russian troops seize tactical opportunities near Kostyantynivka amid weather conditions
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russian forces exploited fog and rain conditions to press advances near Kostyantynivka, threatening the city's supply lines and increasing the risk of capture, which likely contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to make confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On February 3, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, including infiltration missions, but did not secure confirmed territorial gains, leading to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Market trough coincides with intensified Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
A significant drop in market confidence to 86% coincided with intensified Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, raising doubts about the near-term capture timeline for Kostyantynivka.
Russian troops may have seized opportunity to sever Kostyantynivka’s main supply line
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
On February 3, reports highlighted that Russian forces massed southwest of Kostyantynivka could cut the city's main supply route under cover of winter fog and rain, threatening to encircle the city and significantly impacting its defense prospects, which pressured the market downward.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of peace talks
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, signaling continued military pressure despite upcoming peace talks. This large-scale attack likely contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term capture probabilities for Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026.
Russian troops attempt to sever Kostyantynivka’s main supply line amid fog and rain
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian forces sought to exploit weather conditions to cut off Kostyantynivka’s supply routes, aiming to isolate the city and facilitate capture. This heightened risk temporarily increased market confidence in a later 2026 capture date.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On February 2 and 3, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and limited progress. Ukrainian counterattacks were reported, sustaining the stalemate and market price stability.
Russian troops attempt to sever Kostyantynivka's main supply line amid poor weather
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Fog and rain grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, threatening the city's logistics and increasing concerns about its fall.
Car bomb kills Russian Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%30%
The assassination of a senior Russian general suggested heightened Ukrainian covert activity and potential disruption of Russian command structures, lowering confidence in Russia’s ability to advance quickly toward Kostyantynivka.
Russian Forces Threaten Kostyantynivka Supply Lines From the Southwest
Reports highlighted that Russian forces were building up around Berestok, Stepanivka, and Illinivka, threatening to sever Kostyantynivka's main supply lines.
Severe Winter Weather Grounds Ukrainian Drones, Exposing Kostyantynivka's Flank
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
Heavy fog and rain on January 31 grounded Ukrainian defensive drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate southwest of the city and threaten its main supply line, causing a temporary trough to 86-87% before recovering.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On February 2-3, Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed advances, reflecting continued stalemate and Ukrainian resistance. This maintained market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
June 30, 2026 drops to 68%12%
Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, causing widespread damage and civilian hardship. This aggressive military action amid peace talks signaled Russia’s intent to continue pressure, dampening short-term market confidence in a quick capture of Kostyantynivka by mid-2026.
Russian forces continue attacks and drone strikes near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian forces intensified artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes in the Kostyantynivka area, preparing for armored assaults. This sustained pressure supported the market's high probability of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Critical Threats: Broad Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka on Feb 2
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
Critical Threats’ Feb 2 assessment listed extensive Russian attacks across multiple axes around Kostyantynivka, indicating an escalation that nudged the June‑30 probability upward in early February.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Kostyantynivka but fail to secure key terrain
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, including infiltrations and drone strikes, but Ukrainian defenses held firm, preventing significant territorial gains. This maintained uncertainty about a near-term Russian capture, causing a slight price decline for early capture outcomes.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka with increased artillery and drone strikes
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, increasing artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes in preparation for armored assaults, signaling a buildup for a major offensive. This heightened activity raised market expectations for Russian advances in the near term.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages on February 1-2, 2026, marking intensified efforts to capture the city. These attacks indicated ongoing pressure but no decisive breakthrough, influencing market sentiment on near-term capture likelihood.
Russian drone and artillery strikes intensify around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian drone operators and artillery units conducted coordinated strikes on Ukrainian forces in and around Kostyantynivka, signaling ongoing attempts to weaken defenses but without decisive gains. This sustained market expectations of a protracted conflict.
Russia escalates drone and artillery strikes around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
Critical Threats’ Feb 2 assessment described extensive Russian drone and artillery strikes in the Kostyantynivka direction, signalling an intensified offensive that kept market odds for a Russian capture high, supporting the steady high level (~87‑89 %) through early February (December‑31 outcome).
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
Russian forces launched attacks around Kostyantynivka and its surroundings in early February 2026, including infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain but indicated ongoing pressure. This sustained offensive activity contributed to market perceptions of continued fighting and uncertainty about control.
Russian Forces Advance Southwest of Novomarkove Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances northeast of Kostyantynivka, keeping pressure high on the city's outer defensive lines.
Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies around Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
The Critical Threats assessment reported intensified Russian artillery, drone and aviation strikes around Kostiantynivka, signalling a fresh Russian push that lowered confidence in a Russian capture before year‑end, pushing the "December 31, 2026" probability down from 90 % to 87 % the next day.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka but face strong Ukrainian resistance
June 30, 2026 dips to 59%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances southwest of Novomarkove near Kostyantynivka, but slow progress and strong Ukrainian defenses limited gains. This contributed to market uncertainty, with slight price declines for near-term capture dates.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
Russian forces increased artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes around Kostyantynivka, preparing for armored assaults, but Ukrainian forces repelled these efforts, sustaining a stalemate that kept market probabilities stable.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
On February 1-2, Russian forces increased artillery, drone, and aviation strikes around Kostyantynivka, preparing for armored assaults. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces repelled infiltration missions, maintaining control. This contributed to market volatility with short-term capture odds fluctuating.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, including infiltration missions and increased artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes, signaling preparation for armored assaults. This heightened military activity raised concerns about the potential for Russian advances, impacting market confidence in a near-term capture.
Russia launches multi‑direction attacks around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
A Critical Threats briefing detailed a broad Russian attack across the Kostyantynivka sector on 1‑2 Feb, noting heavy artillery and infiltration attempts but no decisive gains. The report coincided with a modest dip in the “December 31 2026” probability (‑3 pts 12‑14 Feb) as traders reassessed the deadline‑driven Russian push.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and conducted infiltration missions east of Kostyantynivka, though Ukrainian forces struck back and prevented changes in control. This indicated ongoing pressure but limited territorial gains, supporting a stable but cautious market outlook.
Russian drone and artillery strikes intensify near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian forces conducted coordinated drone and artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka, signaling an escalation in offensive operations. This increased pressure raised market confidence in a later capture date, reflected in price movements.
Russian forces conduct attacks and infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and conducted infiltration missions, but Ukrainian forces struck back effectively. This ongoing combat maintained market uncertainty about near-term Russian capture, slightly lowering short-term capture odds.
Russian forces advance southwest of Novomarkove near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian advances southwest of Novomarkove, northeast of Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing pressure but no full capture. This maintained market uncertainty about the timing of capture.
Russian troops advance and partially encircle Kostyantynivka, expanding control zones
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
On February 2, reports indicated Russian forces advancing on Kostyantynivka from multiple sides, establishing footholds in the city center and expanding control on both banks of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir. This suggested a growing Russian presence and pressure on Ukrainian defenders, influencing market confidence in a potential capture by year-end.
ISW notes intensified air‑interdiction and infiltration ops around Kostyantynivka
September 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
ISW reported that Russian forces began a prolonged air‑interdiction and infiltration campaign in the Kostyantynivka direction, signalling the start of a focused offensive that later drove market optimism for a 2026 capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka but fail to seize the town
On February 1, Russian forces attacked multiple areas within and near Kostyantynivka, including northeast, south, southwest, and west sectors. Ukrainian forces refuted claims of Russian seizure and reported eliminating Russian infiltration groups inside the town. This maintained Ukrainian control and tempered market optimism about a near-term Russian capture.
U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian officials meet in Abu Dhabi for peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
The second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian officials was seen as a critical diplomatic effort to end the war, stabilizing market expectations despite ongoing conflict.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka with increased artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes, signaling preparation for armored assaults. This heightened activity raised market expectations for Russian capture later in the year but did not yield immediate control.
Russia claims capture of villages surrounding Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
Multiple Russian sources claimed capture of villages (Berestok, Stepanivka, etc.) around Kostyantynivka, suggesting a gradual encirclement. The market responded with a rise toward the 90 % region in early‑February.
Russian forces intensify assaults and infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
By February 1, 2026, Russian forces increased artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes around Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions despite Ukrainian counterattacks, sustaining the market's high confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian drone attacks kill at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid peace talks
A Russian drone strike on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro killed at least 12 people, highlighting the ongoing violence despite scheduled peace talks. This attack underscored Russia's continued military pressure, negatively impacting short-term market confidence in a quick Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
SpaceX blocks Starlink terminals used by Russian troops, disrupting communications
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
In early February, SpaceX, at Ukraine's request, blocked unauthorized Starlink satellite internet terminals used by Russian forces, severely disrupting Russian frontline communications and drone operations. This degradation of Russian command and control capabilities slowed Russian advances and contributed to Ukrainian defensive successes around Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces attack within and near Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian brigade denies city capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, including infiltration missions, but Ukrainian forces refuted claims of the city’s seizure and reported eliminating Russian infiltration groups, maintaining defensive control and tempering market optimism.
US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi end constructively with plans for further negotiations
Two days of talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a ceasefire and peace deal. This diplomatic progress initially supported market confidence in a longer timeline for Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, reflected in stable or slightly increased prices for later dates.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On February 1, Russian forces attacked within and near Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian forces eliminated infiltration groups and counterattacked, preventing Russian seizure of the city and maintaining defensive positions.
Ukrainian Brigade Refutes Claims of Kostyantynivka's Seizure
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson operating in the area refuted Russian claims that Kostyantynivka had been captured, clarifying that Ukrainian forces were actively eliminating individual Russian infiltration groups.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but fail to seize control
June 30, 2026 jumps to 72%11%
Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements but Ukrainian forces eliminated infiltration groups and maintained control, signaling strong defense and limiting Russian territorial gains. This contributed to a slight market dip in near-term capture probabilities.
Ukrainian army recaptures territory near Kostyantynivka, 257 km² liberated
June 30, 2026 plunges to 71%18%
The Adapt Institute reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated 257 km² by early March, including small areas around Kostyantynivka, showing that Ukrainian counter‑offensives were regaining ground and decreasing the odds of a Russian capture before June, which pushed the June 30 market sharply lower.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid peace talks announcement
A Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro killed at least 12 people just before scheduled peace talks, highlighting ongoing intense conflict and complicating diplomatic progress. This event likely dampened near-term optimism for Russian territorial gains such as Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026.
Russian forces launch intensified attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Russian troops increased artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes around Kostyantynivka, attacking multiple directions including within the city itself, signaling preparation for armored assaults. This heightened offensive raised market confidence in eventual Russian capture but did not immediately change control.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts in Kostyantynivka area
May 31, 2026 plunges to 22%29%
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson refuted Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, reporting elimination of Russian infiltration groups inside the city. This maintained Ukrainian control and dampened market optimism for near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts in Kostyantynivka
On February 1, Ukrainian spokespeople refuted Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, reporting elimination of Russian infiltration groups within the city. Russian forces continued attacks nearby but failed to secure the city, maintaining Ukrainian control.
ISW: Russian infiltrations around Kostiantynivka make no gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
ISW’s February 1 assessment reported that Russian forces had only conducted small‑scale infiltrations around Kostiantynivka with no territorial gain, while Ukrainian units successfully repelled attacks. The lack of progress caused the market’s confidence in a December 2026 capture to slip, dropping the price from 89 % to 85 % that day.
Ukrainian 11th Army Corps warns of intensified Russian fire around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Ukrainian 11th Army Corps spokesperson reported a sharp increase in Russian artillery, drone and tactical‑aircraft strikes around Kostyantynivka, signalling a new Russian push that raised market confidence that Russia could capture the city before year‑end.
Ukrainian brigade refutes Russian claims of Kostyantynivka capture amid ongoing attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Despite Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces denied loss of control and reported eliminating Russian infiltration groups, reflecting continued contested control and dampening capture expectations.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Along Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka Axis
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Ukrainian troops successfully advanced along the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical axis, demonstrating resilient defense and pushing back against Russian offensive momentum.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and attacks within and near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian forces continued attacks and infiltration missions in and around Kostyantynivka, with drone and artillery strikes intensifying. Ukrainian forces reported eliminating some infiltration groups but Russian pressure remained high, sustaining market confidence at around 89-90%.
Ukrainian 11th Army Corps reports sharp rise in Russian artillery and drone strikes on Feb 1, 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
Ukrainian Spokesperson Lt. Col. Zaporozhets said Russian artillery, drones and tactical‑air strikes surged in the Slovyansk‑Kramatorsk direction. The spike in firepower was interpreted as preparation for a Russian ground push, causing the “December 31 2026” odds to fall sharply (‑3 pts on Feb 12‑14).
Ukrainian forces refute Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
Despite Russian claims of control, Ukrainian brigade spokesperson confirmed ongoing elimination of Russian infiltration groups inside Kostyantynivka, indicating continued contested status and limiting market optimism.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian forces hold city
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked within and near Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, increasing artillery, drone, and tactical aviation strikes. Ukrainian brigade spokesperson refuted Russian claims of city seizure, reporting elimination of Russian infiltration groups. This maintained market confidence but highlighted ongoing contested fighting.
Ukrainian brigade denies Russian claim of capturing Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
The February 1 ISW assessment highlighted continued Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka and explicitly quoted a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson refuting Russian claims of having seized the town. The clarification that the city remained under Ukrainian control drove the market down further on Feb 13, bringing the “December 31 2026” probability to a low of 87 %.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to capture city
May 31, 2026 plunges to 24%27%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and infiltrated some areas, but Ukrainian forces eliminated infiltration groups and maintained control of the city. This showed Russian pressure but no decisive capture, causing slight market declines for near-term capture probabilities.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian troops repel infiltration
May 31, 2026 plunges to 25%26%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, increasing artillery and drone strikes. Ukrainian forces denied Russian claims of city capture and eliminated infiltration groups, maintaining defensive positions. This sustained fighting indicated a contested frontline, impacting market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Constructive trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Two days of talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US concluded with constructive discussions on possible parameters for ending the war, raising hopes for a ceasefire and peace deal. This improved outlook temporarily supported market confidence in longer-term Russian territorial gains, including Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian counterattacks
Russian forces launched infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but did not secure significant territorial gains. Ukrainian forces counterattacked and eliminated Russian infiltration groups within Kostyantynivka, maintaining defensive positions. This limited Russian progress contributed to a slight market price decline.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to secure city
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On February 1, Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian spokespeople refuted claims of Russian seizure, reporting elimination of infiltration groups. This ongoing stalemate contributed to market price stability around 88-90%.
ISW sees marginal Russian advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
ISW’s February assessment noted marginal Russian advances near Kostyantynivka, suggesting limited progress but still some forward movement. This modest optimism nudged the December‑31‑2026 price upward from 86 % to 89 % within a few days.
U.S. and Russia hold trilateral peace talks in UAE as Ukraine prepares for prisoner exchange
May 31, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
Peace talks between U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian delegations resumed in Abu Dhabi, with the U.S. proposing a 27-point peace plan. Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, temporarily easing tensions before renewed Russian attacks.
Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka continue without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Footage on January 31 showed Russian servicemembers operating near southeastern Kostyantynivka in infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. Russian attacks persisted but no decisive capture occurred, reflecting ongoing stalemate and market price stability.
Fog and rain enable Russian infiltration southwest of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
Adverse weather grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, raising concerns about the city's supply lines and future vulnerability, which pressured the market downward.
Russian infiltration missions intensify near Kostyantynivka amid adverse weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
By January 31, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, exploiting fog and rain that grounded Ukrainian drones, which limited Ukrainian reconnaissance and supply efforts. This tactical opportunity raised concerns about the city's vulnerability, contributing to a price dip to 88%.
Fog and rain aid Russian infiltration southwest of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Adverse weather grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, increasing the threat to the city and likely influencing market perceptions of Russian capture chances.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On January 31, Russian troops carried out infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, occupying positions temporarily but without changing control lines. Ukrainian counterattacks limited Russian gains, contributing to price stability around 89-90%.
Russian Forces Infiltrate Southeastern Kostyantynivka Near Donetska Railroad
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating near the Donetska railroad in southeastern Kostyantynivka, confirming active infiltration inside the city limits.
Fog grounds Ukrainian drones, enabling Russian infiltration southwest of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On January 31, fog and rain grounded Ukrainian drones, which had been critical for reconnaissance and defense. This weather advantage allowed Russian Center Group of Forces to infiltrate the weakest part of the Ukrainian line southwest of Kostyantynivka, increasing the risk of severing the city's main supply line and threatening its fall.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian infiltrators near Kostyantynivka, denying Russian control
Geolocated footage on January 31 showed Ukrainian forces successfully striking Russian infiltration groups northeast of Kostyantynivka, refuting Russian claims of city seizure and reinforcing Ukrainian control, which likely contributed to market stabilization.
Russian Forces Exploit Fog and Rain to Infiltrate Southwest of Kostyantynivka
Adverse weather conditions grounded Ukrainian drones, allowing Russian forces to launch infiltration missions near the Donetska railroad and the weakest parts of the Ukrainian defensive line.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka
On January 31, Ukrainian forces were reported striking Russian infiltration groups in eastern Minkivka near Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian commanders refuting Russian claims of city seizure and emphasizing ongoing resistance.
Ukrainian forces advance near Kostyantynivka, repelling Russian infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances north of Yablunivka southwest of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces made marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces also eliminated Russian infiltration groups inside the city, maintaining control. The market price fluctuated around 88-90% during this period, reflecting ongoing contested control.
Russian forces make marginal advances near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
On January 31, Russian forces reportedly made marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces also advanced north of Yablunivka. The ongoing stalemate and mixed advances kept market confidence steady around 89-90%.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Ukrainian troops eliminated individual Russian infiltration groups that entered Kostyantynivka, preventing a change in control and demonstrating strong defense. This contributed to market stability around the 90% level.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and drone strikes near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
By January 31, 2026, Russian forces were actively attacking and infiltrating near and within Kostyantynivka, using drone strikes to target Ukrainian logistics, though Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks. This ongoing pressure maintained market confidence near peak levels for a Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian and Ukrainian forces both advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On January 31, both Russian and Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, with Russian forces claiming seizure of Berestok and Ukrainian forces advancing north of Yablunivka. Despite these movements, no full capture of Kostyantynivka occurred, maintaining market uncertainty.
ISW assessment shows Russian advance near Kostyantynivka stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
The ISW’s “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” published on 30 Jan 2026 reported only marginal Russian advances near Kostyantynivka and noted that the spring‑summer offensive had stalled. This assessment reduced market confidence that Russia would capture the city by year‑end, shifting the Dec 31, 2026 price from 88 % to 86 %.
Russian attacks kill civilians amid ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Despite peace negotiations underway in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched deadly drone attacks killing civilians in Ukrainian cities, undermining confidence in a swift resolution and causing a slight market price dip.
Russian forces advance west of Stupochky near Kostyantynivka but no city capture
Geolocated footage on January 28 showed Russian forces advancing west of Stupochky near Kostyantynivka, indicating localized gains but no capture of Kostyantynivka itself by January 30. This limited progress sustained market skepticism about a near-term capture.
ISW reports broad Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka on Jan 30, 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
ISW’s Jan 30 assessment listed a wave of Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka, including assaults from the south, north and east. The report reinforced market expectations that Russia was intensifying its offensive, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up to the high‑80 % range.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
By January 30, 2026, Russian forces made recent advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, including attacks within and near Kostyantynivka. This ongoing pressure likely stabilized market confidence around 89%.
Russian forces launch multiple assaults near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian troops attacked in and around Kostyantynivka, including infiltration missions that did not change frontline control. This intensified fighting raised expectations of a possible Russian capture, supporting high market prices early in the year.
ISW notes fresh Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka on Jan 29‑30
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka on Jan 29‑30, including infiltrations toward Illinivka and other sectors, signalling the start of a renewed Russian offensive and raising market expectations for a capture by year‑end.
Russian forces continue attacks and drone strikes in Kostyantynivka area
On January 29-30, Russian forces conducted attacks and drone strikes within and around Kostyantynivka, including strikes on infrastructure. These ongoing operations indicated persistent efforts but no decisive capture, maintaining market probabilities near 90%.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 29-30, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, including Maiske, Markove, and Illinivka, but infiltration missions did not change control of terrain. This sustained offensive pressure kept market confidence high but uncertain about a quick capture.
ISW says Russia set May 2026 deadline to capture Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
ISW’s 30‑January assessment reported that Russian forces had intensified offensive operations against Kostyantynivka and had set a deadline to capture the city by May 2026. The assessment raised expectations that Russia could eventually take the city, pushing the market’s “December 31, 2026” probability up from ~91 % on 5 Jan to ~94 % on 5 Jan.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Kostyantynivka with attacks and drone strikes
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, employing drone operators and artillery strikes, but Ukrainian forces held positions, sustaining the stalemate and market skepticism about quick Russian capture.
ISW notes fresh Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka and western flanks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
ISW’s Jan 30 assessment reported a wave of Russian attacks on and around Kostyantynivka, including attempts to infiltrate Illinivka and push toward the city’s western districts. The report raised expectations that Russia might capture the city, which coincided with the market’s jump from 89 % to 94 % on Jan 31 – Feb 2 (December‑31 outcome).
ISW says Russia set May 2026 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 68%7%
ISW’s assessment reported fresh Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka and noted a Russian deadline to capture the city by May 2026. The news raised expectations for a Russian capture, pushing the June 30 market up from 61 % to 68 % the next day.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade and other units conducted strikes and attacks in and around Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes on key infrastructure, signaling a sustained offensive effort. This increased military pressure initially maintained high market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka amid continued fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, continuing efforts to capture the city. Despite these attacks, Ukrainian resistance and adverse conditions limited rapid progress, causing market price fluctuations but maintaining high probability of eventual capture.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in and near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 30, Russian forces attacked within and near Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and infiltration missions, but did not change control of the city, reflecting ongoing contested fighting.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka and advance in surrounding tactical areas
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On January 29 and 30, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, but infiltration missions did not change control of terrain significantly, reflecting continued contested fighting.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 70%9%
On January 29-30, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, attempting infiltration missions but failing to change control of terrain. This marked an escalation in Russian efforts to capture the city, causing a slight market dip in short-term capture probabilities.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka with ongoing counterattacks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in and around Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks. The persistent fighting and incremental Russian pressure supported sustained market confidence near peak levels.
Russian MoD claims capture of Berestok near Kostyantynivka (Jan 30, 2026)
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Critical Threats reported an unconfirmed Russian Ministry of Defence claim that Russian forces had seized the settlement of Berestok south of Kostyantynivka. Even though the claim was unverified, it nudged market sentiment upward, contributing to the price rebound to 90 % on Jan 23‑25.
Russian forces maintain attacks near Kostyantynivka without decisive gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
On January 29-30, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby areas but did not achieve significant territorial gains. Ukrainian forces continued to defend and counterattack. This persistent stalemate contributed to the market price decline to 87%, reflecting doubts about a near-term Russian capture.
Russian FPV drone operators strike Ukrainian forces in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On January 29-30, Russian drone operators from multiple units conducted strikes on Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka, indicating sustained Russian offensive pressure. This contributed to maintaining market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces concentrate drone operators and assault infantry near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On January 29, Russian forces intensified drone strikes and deployed specialized assault infantry near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not achieve territorial gains. Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions, maintaining the stalemate and limiting Russian capture prospects.
Russia Concentrates Specialized Drone Operators and Assault Infantry Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported a heavy concentration of specialized Russian drone operators and well-trained assault infantry in the Kostyantynivka direction, signaling intensified offensive preparations.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but do not advance
On January 29, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure with specialized drone operators and assault infantry near Kostyantynivka but failed to make territorial gains, reflecting a stalemate and sustained Ukrainian defense.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, concentrating specialized drone operators and assault infantry. However, they did not achieve territorial gains, indicating strong Ukrainian resistance and stalled Russian progress.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On January 29-30, Russian forces conducted numerous attacks in and around Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, indicating continued offensive pressure but no decisive capture. This sustained fighting contributed to slight market price declines reflecting uncertainty.
U.S. offers Ukraine 15-year security guarantee in peace plan
The U.S. proposed a 15-year security guarantee to Ukraine as part of a peace plan, signaling strong Western support for Ukraine's defense and influencing market confidence in the conflict's trajectory and territorial outcomes.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Berestok near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
On January 29, the Russian MoD claimed control of Berestok south of Kostyantynivka, supported by milblogger reports of advances southwest of Stepanivka. Despite these claims, independent verification was limited, and fighting continued, leading to a modest market price decline.
Russian forces concentrate specialized drone operators and assault infantry near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On January 29, Russian forces intensified their offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, deploying specialized drone operators and well-trained assault infantry, signaling a focused effort to capture the city. However, no significant territorial gains were made, reflecting ongoing stalemate conditions.
Russian forces maintain concentrated attacks near Kostyantynivka with specialized units
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On January 28 and 29, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, deploying specialized drone operators and assault infantry. Despite ongoing pressure, no decisive capture was reported, contributing to market price stabilization near 89%.
Heavy fighting with multiple Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka reported
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
The Ukrainian General Staff reported 15 Russian offensive actions near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, indicating intense ongoing combat but no decisive Russian capture of the city.
Ukraine Foreign Minister condemns Putin's missile attacks during negotiations
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha criticized Putin for ordering missile strikes against Ukraine while delegations were meeting in Abu Dhabi for peace talks.
Ukraine allies agree on multilayered security guarantees for post-ceasefire peace plan
A major diplomatic breakthrough with 27 European countries and Canada agreeing to provide international security guarantees if a peace deal is struck with Russia boosted early market confidence in a potential resolution.
Russian forces conduct limited advances near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing clashes
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%6%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces making marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian forces also advanced nearby. Russian troops continued offensive operations but did not achieve significant breakthroughs, reflecting a stalemate that influenced market prices.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but fail to secure advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Despite ongoing attacks and infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, Russian forces did not make confirmed advances, indicating a protracted battle and limiting market confidence in imminent capture.
Russian troops make slight advances in southeast Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Footage from January 28 showed Russian forces making minor advances in the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka, continuing their offensive despite Ukrainian resistance. This incremental progress was reflected in price fluctuations around 88-90%.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
Despite continued attacks around Kostyantynivka, Russian forces did not make confirmed advances, and Ukrainian forces reported ongoing resistance and civilian presence. This ongoing stalemate contributed to the market price remaining below early January highs.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing stalemate
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On January 27-28, Russian forces continued attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reported ongoing resistance and counterattacks, maintaining the status quo and contributing to market price declines.
Russian forces exploit bad weather for infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
On January 28, Russian forces continued offensive operations but did not make confirmed advances, instead exploiting foggy and rainy weather to attempt small group infiltrations near Kostyantynivka, which Ukrainian forces resisted. This contributed to a market trough at 87% on February 4.
RBC‑Ukraine: Phoenix unit destroys Russian Grad and tank near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
RBC‑Ukraine reported that Ukrainian Phoenix border‑guards destroyed a Russian Grad multiple‑launch rocket system and a tank on the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, showing active Ukrainian resistance. The news tempered expectations of a swift Russian capture, nudging the market slightly lower (from 88 % to 90 % Yes) as confidence in a Russian breakthrough waned.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 28, Russian troops launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and exploited bad weather for infiltration attempts, yet Ukrainian forces held firm, preventing any confirmed territorial gains in the city itself.
U.S. pushes June deadline for Ukraine-Russia peace deal
June 30, 2026 plunges to 61%28%
U.S. President Zelenskyy announced a June deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace deal, increasing pressure on Moscow and affecting market expectations for conflict resolution.
Russian drone attack on Kyiv kills one, wounds 31
Russian attacks on Kyiv killed one person and wounded 31, occurring as peace negotiations were set to begin in Abu Dhabi.
Russian Troops Achieve Slight Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
Footage from late January indicated a slight advance by Russian troops in the southeastern outskirts of the city, confirming they are attempting to replicate their Pokrovsk strategy.
Russian forces persist with attacks near Kostyantynivka amid adverse weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
On January 28, Russian forces continued attacks and small group infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka despite bad weather, but without confirmed territorial gains, sustaining market skepticism about imminent capture, with price around 89%.
Russian forces maintain offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
On January 27-28, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but did not achieve confirmed advances. Ukrainian reports noted ongoing Russian small group infiltration attempts amid bad weather, sustaining market skepticism about imminent capture.
Russian troops exploit bad weather for infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian forces used fog and rain conditions to conduct small group infiltrations southwest of Kostyantynivka, aiming to sever Ukrainian supply lines and increase pressure on the city, though no confirmed major advances were made.
Russian Forces Advance West of Stupochky and Infiltrate Southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing further west of Stupochky and conducting infiltration missions directly into southern Kostyantynivka, keeping the probability high.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 27-28, Russian forces conducted multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, including infiltration attempts and drone strikes, but did not make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, and civilian presence remained significant. This stalemate likely contributed to the market's slight decline in confidence about a near-term Russian capture.
US reportedly pushes Ukraine to cede Donetsk Oblast amid intensified Russian operations
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
On January 27-28, reports emerged that the US is pressuring Ukraine to cede Donetsk Oblast to Russia in exchange for security guarantees. Meanwhile, Russian forces intensified offensive operations near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka but made no confirmed advances. The combination of diplomatic pressure and stalled military progress likely contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Trump says Ukraine is holding up peace deal, Putin agrees to pause strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Trump stated Ukraine President Zelenskyy is an obstacle to peace, and the Kremlin confirmed Trump's assessment. This shift in diplomatic tone, combined with a pause in Russian targeting of Kyiv, may have contributed to the market's recovery to 89%.
Russian forces exaggerate advance claims near Kostyantynivka, analysts warn of collapse
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 27, reports emerged that Russian forces exaggerated their claims of entering Kostyantynivka, with military analysts warning of a potential collapse of the offensive, which likely contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian forces advance southeast of Pryvillya near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage on January 27 showed Russian advances southeast of Pryvillya, northeast of Kostyantynivka, signaling incremental territorial gains and sustaining market optimism about eventual capture.
Russian military exaggerates advances near Kostyantynivka amid battlefield setbacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On January 27, Russian forces reportedly exaggerated their advances, claiming to have entered Kostyantynivka, while analysts and milbloggers exposed these claims as false. This undermined confidence in Russian progress and suggested operational difficulties.
Small Russian advance southeast of Pryvillya, front still static
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
The Critical Threats assessment on 27 January indicated a limited Russian advance southeast of Pryvillya (northeast of Kostyantynivka) but stressed that overall the front had stalled. This modest gain failed to generate further upside, and the market held near its end‑point.
Russian advance near Kostyantynivka overstated, analysts warn of possible collapse
Despite Russian claims of entering Kostyantynivka, military analysts and milbloggers exposed exaggerations and contested control, signaling potential setbacks for Russian forces and causing market skepticism about a near-term capture.
Russian forces exaggerate advances claiming entry into Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Russian military reports overstated their progress, claiming to have entered Kostyantynivka, but independent analysis revealed these claims were false, undermining confidence in Russian prospects and contributing to a price decline from 94% to 91%.
Russian military boasts small village seizures near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
On January 27, Russian military command highlighted seizures of small villages near Kostyantynivka and ongoing fighting within the area, though some reports suggested exaggeration of gains. This contributed to market stabilization around 89-90% Yes as the situation remained contested.
Russian forces exaggerate advances near Kostyantynivka amid operational difficulties
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Despite claims of entering Kostyantynivka, Russian forces faced setbacks and inflated reports of progress. This tempered market optimism, causing minor price fluctuations but sustaining the high likelihood of eventual capture by late 2026.
Russian military claims advances near Kostyantynivka with ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian forces advanced near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with ongoing fighting reported. Despite Russian claims, independent observers noted limited control and false reporting by Russian forces, reflecting persistent but slow progress. Market prices peaked around this time due to perceived increased likelihood of eventual capture.
Russian Milbloggers Accuse Military Command of Submitting False Reports
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian General Staff and military command for submitting exaggerated and false reports of territorial gains, including in the Kostyantynivka direction.
Russian military command boasts of village seizures near Kostyantynivka amid limited advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Despite Russian military claims of seizing several small villages near Kostyantynivka, independent assessments and milblogger reports indicated these claims were exaggerated and actual advances were limited. This discrepancy contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian Milbloggers Criticize False and Inflated Battlefield Reports Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Pro-war Russian milbloggers exposed a pattern of exaggerated claims of territorial gains submitted by Russian commanders, reducing confidence in the rapid capture of the city.
Russian advance near Kostiantynivka implodes as forces fail to enter town
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Russian forces reported reaching and entering Kostiantynivka, but reality on the ground showed no advance, with Russian military analysts sounding alarms about imminent collapse.
Russian military command exaggerates territorial gains near Kostyantynivka
On January 26-27, Russian military command boasted about seizing small villages near Kostyantynivka, but milbloggers criticized these claims as exaggerated and not reflective of actual control. This skepticism likely tempered market optimism about a near-term capture.
ISW Releases Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Highlighting Russian Advances and Infiltration Claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%4%
The ISW assessment detailed Russian advances in multiple directions near Kostyantynivka and noted Russian forces attacking near the city itself. This reinforced the market's skepticism about Russian capture success.
Russian military officials exaggerate advances near Kostyantynivka amid slow progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Russian officials repeatedly presented inflated claims of advances near Kostyantynivka, while independent observers noted slow progress and ongoing Ukrainian resistance. This led to some price volatility but maintained a high probability of eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
ISW Assesses Russia Unlikely to Seize Remainder of Donetsk Oblast Before August 2027
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that due to a slowed rate of advance, Russian forces are unlikely to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast before August 2027, casting doubt on near-term capture timelines.
Russian drone and artillery pressure increases near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
By January 27, Russian forces increased drone and artillery strikes near Kostyantynivka, signaling intensified efforts to capture the area. However, this escalation did not translate into immediate territorial gains, coinciding with a market price drop from 90% to 88%.
Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka continue without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On January 26, Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kostyantynivka, including within the city, but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces maintained control of key settlements, reinforcing the ongoing stalemate and limiting market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions despite Russian claims of seizure near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian brigade reported holding positions in Orikhovo-Vasylivka contrary to Russian claims of capture, indicating contested control and ongoing resistance. This undermined confidence in imminent Russian capture, contributing to market price decline.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but do not advance
On January 26, Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but failed to make confirmed advances, reflecting a stalemate and limiting market optimism.
Russia launches large‑scale drone and missile strike on Kyiv ahead of Abu Dhabi talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%4%
Russian forces bombed Kyiv with missiles and drones, killing civilians just before trilateral peace talks, signaling a willingness to intensify attacks and weakening expectations of a swift capture of Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Orikhovo-Vasylivka despite Russian claims
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On January 26, a Ukrainian brigade reported holding positions in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, countering Russian claims of seizure. Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kostyantynivka but did not advance significantly, indicating a stalemate in the area.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka but fail to seize key settlements
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On January 26, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but did not advance significantly. Ukrainian forces maintained positions in key areas, signaling a stalemate and limiting the likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance; Ukrainian forces hold key positions
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On January 26, Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, including strikes by drone operators and artillery, but did not achieve territorial gains. Ukrainian brigades reported holding positions in contested settlements, reflecting stalemate conditions that kept market prices stable.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no decisive gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Russian forces launched attacks in and around Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements but did not achieve significant territorial gains, reflecting continued stalemate and attrition. This contributed to a slight market price decline.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, maintaining offensive pressure. Ukrainian forces also advanced in nearby sectors, indicating a dynamic and contested battlefield with no decisive Russian capture yet but persistent efforts.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On January 24-25, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, with some advances along key highways but no decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian forces also counterattacked in the area. This ongoing fighting with limited progress corresponded to market stabilization around 90-91%.
Russian forces advance along Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On January 24-25, Russian forces advanced along the T-0504 Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky, indicating continued pressure on the Kostyantynivka area. Despite these advances, Ukrainian forces remained resilient, and the market price showed minor recovery to 90-91%.
Russian forces intensify strikes and drone operations near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian forces increased drone strikes and mechanized assaults around Kostyantynivka in late January 2026, signaling preparation for a major offensive. This heightened activity raised market confidence in Russia's ability to capture the city later, supporting higher prices for longer-term capture dates.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration and drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
On January 25, 2026, Russian forces continued attacks and advances near Kostyantynivka, employing FPV drones and infiltration tactics, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses and supporting the market's sustained high probability of capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka with recent advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, maintaining offensive momentum and reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
On January 24-25, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, with some advances near the Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. Ukrainian forces maintained positions in contested areas. The market price remained around 88-91%, indicating persistent uncertainty about a full Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka with no confirmed capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Russian forces launched attacks around and inside Kostyantynivka, including along key highways and nearby settlements, but did not secure control of the city. This ongoing fighting without decisive gains maintained market uncertainty and contributed to stable but slightly declining price levels.
U.S. envoy reports progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Berlin
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff reported "in-depth discussions" and progress in peace talks with Ukraine and Russia in Berlin, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution. However, unresolved territorial disputes kept market confidence cautious, reflected in only a modest price recovery.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi end constructively amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, though key territorial issues remained unresolved. Concurrent Russian drone attacks during the talks highlighted the fragile situation, keeping market confidence in a Russian capture high but cautious.
Russian forces report advances near Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian forces contest control
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On January 24-25, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, claiming advances. However, Ukrainian forces reported holding key positions, leading to mixed signals and market price volatility.
Russian attacks continue near Kostyantynivka with no major gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Critical Threats noted that Russian units continued attacks near Kostyantynivka on Jan 24‑25 without gaining ground. The market modestly recovered from 87 % (Jan 21) to 90 % (Jan 26), reflecting a slight re‑assessment that fighting remained intense but not decisively worsening the odds of capture.
Russian forces make new advance on Kostyantynivka‑Pokrovsk highway (Jan 25, 2026)
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
The Jan 25 assessment reported fresh Russian advances along the T‑0504 Kostyantynivka‑Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky – a concrete territorial gain in the immediate vicinity of Kostyantynivka. The news lifted market confidence, pushing the price back up to 94 % on Jan 10‑12 and stabilising near 90 % thereafter.
Russian missile strike kills civilian in Kramatorsk as US pushes June peace deadline
A Russian airstrike on a residential area in Kramatorsk killed one person amid ongoing hostilities. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced a U.S. deadline of June 2026 for a peace deal, increasing pressure on negotiations. This event highlighted the ongoing conflict and the diplomatic timeline, affecting market confidence in a near-term resolution.
Kremlin reiterates war aims amid ongoing fighting near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 25, Kremlin officials reaffirmed Russia's commitment to its war aims, rejecting Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, with both sides making localized advances. This hardened stance and ongoing fighting maintained market skepticism about a quick Russian capture, contributing to price decline.
Russian forces claim advances near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing contested fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
On January 24-25, Russian forces claimed advances along key routes west and southwest of Kostyantynivka, including strikes by drone operators, but Ukrainian sources contested full control. The mixed reports led to a slight market recovery as hopes for eventual capture persisted.
Russian Forces Advance Along T-0504 Highway East of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian advances along the critical T-0504 Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky, leading to a slight rebound in the market's probability.
Russian attacks surge ahead of second day of Abu Dhabi peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Just before the second day of the Abu Dhabi negotiations, Russia launched a wave of missile and drone strikes that killed civilians, prompting a short market rally as analysts speculated the attacks were a pressure tactic rather than a sign of imminent territorial gains.
Russian forces maintain pressure with strikes around Kostyantynivka but fail to secure control
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On January 24, Russian forces continued striking Ukrainian positions in areas surrounding Kostyantynivka, including Minkivka and Berestok, but did not achieve significant territorial control. This ongoing stalemate contributed to the market price stabilizing around 89-90%.
US Officials Confirm Trilateral Peace Talks Scheduled in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian and Russian delegations would meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered trilateral talks, introducing diplomatic variables that temporarily eased expectations of immediate military resolution.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
On January 23 and 24, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions maintained the frontline, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Between January 22 and 24, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian forces conducted infiltration and counterattacks, maintaining contested control. This ongoing stalemate contributed to price stabilization around 90-91%.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka amid ongoing contested control
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Geolocated footage on January 23 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in eastern Kostyantynivka, indicating Russian infiltration missions had not secured control and the battle remained contested.
Russian Milbloggers Expose Inflated Claims of Advances Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Prominent Russian military bloggers criticized the Russian military command for submitting false reports of territorial gains, reducing confidence in the actual speed of the Russian advance.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka amid contested control
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Between January 22 and 24, Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in northern Minkivka and areas south and southwest of Kostyantynivka, with ongoing fighting but no decisive territorial changes, reflecting continued stalemate conditions.
Russian forces advance along Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
Geolocated footage published on January 24 showed Russian forces recently advancing along the T-0504 Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway west of Stupochky, indicating incremental territorial gains near Kostyantynivka and sustaining offensive momentum, which supported a market price recovery.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue contested advances around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Between January 21 and 24, both Russian and Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in and around Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka and Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions. The ongoing stalemate and contested control likely maintained market uncertainty, keeping the price near 88-90%.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Localized Russian Advances and Ukrainian Counter-Advances in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, while Ukrainian forces made marginal gains along the Donetska railway.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka Amid Russian Flank Advances
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces marginally advancing along the railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces advanced in the surrounding villages, stabilizing the market around 90%.
Russian milbloggers warn of inflated claims on Kostyantynivka advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers warned that Russian military claims of gains in Kostyantynivka are exaggerated, highlighting discrepancies between official reports and actual control, which may have tempered market enthusiasm but did not reverse confidence.
Milbloggers Warn of Inflated Russian Claims in Kostyantynivka Direction
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian military bloggers highlighted a significant discrepancy between the Russian military command's exaggerated claims of advances and the actual frontline reality near Kostyantynivka.
Both Ukrainian and Russian Forces Advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Area
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%4%
The Institute for the Study of War reported simultaneous, localized advances by both Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, reflecting highly contested and fluid frontlines.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish high‑level military dialogue
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
The renewal of direct military communications was interpreted as a diplomatic opening that could ease tensions, but also suggested Russia felt secure enough to pursue its battlefield goals, nudging the market higher for a late‑2026 capture date.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
On January 24, Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, continuing intense urban combat but without decisive territorial gains. This sustained pressure contributed to minor market price recovery.
Trilateral Peace Talks Begin in Abu Dhabi as Frontline Clashes Continue
Negotiators from the US, Russia, and Ukraine met in Abu Dhabi to discuss a revised 20-point peace plan, introducing diplomatic variables while tactical ground combat continued in southeastern Kostyantynivka.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
President Putin's public warning that Russia would achieve its goals by military means if diplomacy failed reinforced the market's expectation of continued Russian territorial pressure, leading to a price recovery.
US, Ukraine, and Russia Conclude Trilateral Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Delegations from the US, Ukraine, and Russia concluded two days of trilateral security talks in the UAE, introducing diplomatic negotiations alongside the ongoing military campaign.
Russian forces push deeper into Kostyantynivka area with strikes on Ukrainian positions
Geolocated footage from January 22-24 showed Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions around Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing offensive operations that maintained market optimism for eventual capture by the end of 2026.
Geolocated footage shows Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka amid contested advances
Between January 22 and 24, Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, including northern Minkivka and areas south of the city. However, these actions did not translate into decisive territorial gains, reflecting ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Advances in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Visual evidence confirmed recent Russian tactical advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, though milbloggers warned of inflated command claims.
Kuleba reports massive Russian drone and missile strike wave across Ukraine on Jan 24
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Jan 24 report of a large Russian strike wave (including Shahed drones and an Iskander‑M) over Ukraine raised concerns about broader Russian offensive capability, nudging the market back up to 90 % on Jan 24‑26.
Russian Forces Advance Along T-0504 Highway East of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces made confirmed advances along the T-0504 Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk highway, slightly recovering their offensive momentum.
Russian Milbloggers Criticize Inflated Battlefield Claims Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers warned that inflated reports of territorial gains in the Kostyantynivka direction were creating a dangerous discrepancy with the actual frontline reality.
Russian Milbloggers Reject Inflated Command Claims of Advances Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Pro-war Russian milbloggers increasingly rejected the alternate battlefield reality presented by senior commanders, warning of highly inflated claims of advances in the Kostyantynivka direction.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
Geolocated footage confirmed recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian forces also made marginal advances. The continued fighting without decisive control shifts maintained market uncertainty but supported the high probability of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue strikes near Kostyantynivka but fail to secure new ground
Russian strikes targeted Ukrainian positions northeast and south of Kostyantynivka, but no confirmed territorial gains were made. The ongoing stalemate maintained market prices near prior levels, reflecting uncertainty about capture timing.
ISW Releases Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Showing Russian Advances in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%4%
The ISW assessment documented Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and northern Ivanopillya, contributing to the market's price movement during the analysis window.
Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka contested by Ukrainian counterattacks
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, but Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing contested control. Russian milbloggers criticized inflated claims of advances, reflecting doubts about Russian progress and contributing to market decline.
U.S. and Russia reestablish high‑level military dialogue
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
The United States and Russia agreed to resume high‑level military talks, suggesting a possible de‑escalation that temporarily boosted confidence that Russian forces might not achieve a rapid capture of Kostyantynivka before the end of the year.
Russian and Ukrainian forces both advance marginally in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Geolocated footage showed minor advances by both sides in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, indicating a stalemate with ongoing skirmishes but no decisive control shift.
Critical Threats: Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka Jan 24‑25
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Critical Threats noted renewed Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka on Jan 24‑25, suggesting a possible Russian push forward and briefly lifting market optimism for the December‑31, 2026 capture scenario.
Ukrainian delegation arrives in U.S. for peace talks amid Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Ukraine’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and other negotiators arrived in the U.S. to discuss peace agreement details as Russia continued attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid persistent conflict, which kept market prices steady.
Kremlin demands Ukraine withdraw from Donbas amid ongoing fighting near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On January 23, Kremlin officials reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but made no advances, reflecting persistent conflict and market price stability around 88-89%.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kostyantynivka after infiltration
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On January 23, 2026, Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russian-occupied buildings in eastern Kostyantynivka following a Russian infiltration mission that did not change territorial control, signaling continued Ukrainian resistance and contributing to a price decline to 89%.
Trilateral peace talks begin in UAE amid ongoing fighting near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi aiming to negotiate peace, with discussions including ceasefire proposals. Despite diplomatic progress, fighting around Kostyantynivka continued, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight decline in capture probability.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
On January 23, 2026, Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but failed to advance or change control lines. This stalemate contributed to a decline in market confidence, reflected in a price drop to 88%.
Russian forces continue offensive in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but make no advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
On January 23, Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka but failed to advance, with Ukrainian defenders holding positions and repelling infiltration attempts. This stalemate contributed to a further decline in market confidence regarding Russian capture by year-end.
Russia Demands Full Ukrainian Withdrawal from Donbas Amid Trilateral Peace Talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov repeated demands for Ukraine's complete withdrawal from Donbas as trilateral security talks began in Abu Dhabi, reinforcing Russia's long-term intent to capture Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces vary tactics with mixed vehicle and horse assaults near Kostyantynivka
Russian troops attempted to diversify offensive tactics by combining heavy and light vehicles with horses to attack Ukrainian positions, reflecting adaptation but no significant territorial gains.
Russian forces vary tactics in Kostyantynivka offensive but make no advance
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
On January 23, Russian forces attempted to diversify offensive tactics using mixed vehicles and horses near Kostyantynivka but did not achieve territorial gains. This maintained market uncertainty about the likelihood of capture by year-end.
Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and US begin in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Following the Moscow meeting, officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24 to discuss peace proposals and security guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed readiness to sign security guarantees, signaling progress in diplomatic efforts. These talks contributed to market optimism and price increases in early January.
U.S.-brokered Russia‑Ukraine peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
The restart of high‑level negotiations raised hopes of a diplomatic settlement that could pause Russian advances, causing a brief dip in the market’s confidence that Russia would capture Kostyantynivka before year‑end.
Ukrainian soldier escapes Russian captivity near Kostyantynivka, taking two Russians with him
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
A Ukrainian soldier wounded and captured near Kostyantynivka managed to escape Russian captivity and led two Russian soldiers with him, demonstrating Ukrainian resilience and undermining Russian control claims in the area. This event likely contributed to a slight market decrease in confidence about imminent Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka on Jan 22‑23 with no territorial gain
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%6%
The Jan 23 2026 assessment recorded continued Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka but stated that they “did not advance”. The lack of progress weakened confidence in a capture before year‑end, contributing to the market’s decline from 94 % (Jan 9 2026) to 88 % (Jan 19 2026).
Russian forces vary tactics using vehicles and horses in Kostyantynivka offensive
On January 23, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported Russian forces employing a mix of heavy and light vehicles and horses to attack Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, indicating tactical adaptation amid ongoing fighting but no confirmed breakthrough. This maintained market uncertainty.
Kremlin reiterates demand for Ukraine’s full withdrawal from Donbas
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Peskov’s reiteration of Russian demands for a full Ukrainian withdrawal (23 Jan 2026) raised expectations that Russia would push for a decisive capture before any settlement, nudging the market upward again (price rose to 91 % on 24 Dec and stayed above 89 % through late‑January).
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Pavlivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Russian milbloggers claimed Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Pavlivka, indicating Ukrainian resistance efforts that may have influenced market perceptions of Russian progress.
Putin agrees to trilateral security talks with Ukraine and US amid ongoing fighting near Kostyantynivka
Russian President Putin agreed to meet with Ukraine and the US in trilateral working group meetings to discuss security issues, coinciding with continued Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka but no confirmed advances. This diplomatic development may have tempered market expectations for a swift Russian capture.
Russian forces attempt varied offensive tactics near Kostyantynivka
On January 22-23, Russian troops used a combination of heavy and light vehicles and horses in attacks near Kostyantynivka but made no territorial advances, indicating ongoing stalemate and Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On January 22-23, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, employing varied tactics including heavy and light vehicles and horses, but did not achieve territorial advances, reflecting ongoing stalemate.
Russian forces vary tactics near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
On January 23, Russian forces attempted to diversify offensive tactics using mixed vehicles and horses near Kostyantynivka but did not achieve territorial gains. This maintained the status quo and kept market confidence in Russian capture from increasing.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but make no significant advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russian troops attacked near and within Kostyantynivka but failed to advance, with Ukrainian defenders holding firm. The market reflected this stalemate with a slight price decline, indicating persistent uncertainty about the capture timeline.
UAE trilateral talks: Russia says it seized 36 sq mi near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 80%2%
Announcements of trilateral talks in the UAE included a claim that Russia had captured about 36 sq mi near Kostyantynivka, briefly lifting market optimism for a capture and nudging the December‑31‑2026 price upward from 78 % to 80 % the next day.
Ukraine, Russia, and US Hold First Trilateral Talks in UAE
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
The first trilateral talks since the start of the war began in Abu Dhabi, raising hopes for diplomatic frameworks but also highlighting continued Russian battlefield pressure near Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces vary offensive tactics near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Russian forces used a combination of heavy and light vehicles and horses to attack Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, but despite continued offensive operations, they did not make territorial gains. This contributed to a slight market price decline from 94% to 91%.
Russian and Ukrainian forces engage in ongoing combat near Kostyantynivka with limited territorial changes
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%4%
By January 22, Russian forces operated near Kostyantynivka with artillery and drone strikes, while Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka. The stalemate and limited Russian progress contributed to a slight market decline in the likelihood of capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid contested control
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces also marginally advanced along the Donetska railway, reflecting ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to strengthen Ukraine’s position amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
President Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders to bolster support for Ukraine during critical U.S.-led peace negotiations. This diplomatic show of unity aimed to maintain pressure on Russia and support Ukraine’s defense, influencing market confidence positively.
Ukrainian Forces Reclaim Positions in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing and maintaining strongpoints in southeastern Kostyantynivka, reversing some previous Russian gains and causing the market to adjust.
Ukrainian Forces Reclaim Strongpoints in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing and maintaining strongpoints in southeastern Kostyantynivka, reversing some prior Russian gains and stabilizing the front.
Putin meets US envoys; trilateral talks with Ukraine set in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On January 22-23, Russian President Putin met with US envoys, agreeing to trilateral security talks with Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24. These diplomatic efforts focused on security issues and territorial disputes, with Russia emphasizing the territorial issue as key to any settlement. The talks did not halt fighting, and Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, maintaining pressure but without decisive gains, reflecting market caution.
Ukrainian Forces Launch Successful Counterattack in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces reclaiming positions in southeastern Kostyantynivka, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities and pushing the market price down to 89%.
Ukrainian forces maintain strongpoints in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid Russian assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Geolocated footage on January 22 showed Ukrainian forces recently advanced and maintained strongpoints in southeastern Kostyantynivka, despite Russian forces attacking near and within the city. This defensive resilience contributed to market stabilization after prior declines.
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Following peace talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine carried out a prisoner exchange on January 22, 2026, signaling some diplomatic progress. However, ongoing military actions and unresolved territorial disputes maintained market uncertainty about the timeline for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian Forces Secure Marginal Advances in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced along the railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, demonstrating active resistance and stabilizing the defensive line.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Ukrainian Forces Advanced in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka and maintaining strongpoints that Russian forces had previously bypassed, demonstrating resilient Ukrainian defense.
Ukrainian forces push back in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%6%
The 22 January 2026 assessment highlighted fresh Ukrainian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting the city was not falling as quickly as feared. This counter‑development caused the market to drop again to 88 % on 22 January.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka and maintained strongpoints previously thought to be lost, temporarily slowing Russian progress.
Russian attacks kill and wound civilians ahead of second day of peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian missile and drone attacks killed one and wounded dozens in Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv just before a second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi. The attacks highlighted ongoing conflict and undermined optimism for a quick resolution, contributing to a dip in market confidence for Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Confirm Strongpoints in Southeastern Kostyantynivka Bypassed by Russian Infiltrations
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces maintained strongpoints in southeastern Kostyantynivka that Russian forces had bypassed, indicating Russia did not have full control of the area.
US envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner meet Putin in Moscow to discuss Ukraine peace plan
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 22, US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss potential peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This diplomatic engagement raised hopes for a negotiated settlement but did not immediately impact frontline military dynamics, contributing to market price volatility around this date.
Kremlin says it agrees with Trump that Ukraine is delaying a peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%7%
Dmitry Peskov’s public alignment with Donald Trump’s claim that Kyiv is holding up negotiations suggested Moscow might intensify military actions to force concessions, reviving expectations of a rapid offensive toward key towns such as Kostyantynivka.
Car bomb kills Russian Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, suspected Ukrainian link
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%6%
The assassination of a senior Russian general heightened perceptions of Russian vulnerability and potential retaliation, reinforcing expectations that Russia would intensify its offensive operations, including a push toward Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces push deeper into Kostyantynivka area but fail to secure city
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
On January 21, Russian forces reportedly advanced deeper into the Kostyantynivka area, including Pishchane, but did not capture the city itself. This partial progress was insufficient to boost market confidence, which remained low for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Ukrainian counteroffensive achieves tactical success near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Fighting intensified near Kostyantynivka in January 2026 with Ukrainian forces successfully repelling Russian assaults and maintaining control over key positions. This limited Russian operational progress and reinforced Ukrainian defensive posture.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka and conduct infiltration missions
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances north of Kostyantynivka and infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating ongoing contested fighting around the city. This maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture but reflected the contested nature of the battle.
Russian forces infiltrate toward Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%4%
Russian units infiltrated toward the village of Illinivka located west of Kostyantynivka by mid-January 2026, marking the start of intensified Russian efforts to capture the city. This increased pressure raised market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end but did not indicate immediate success.
Russian Forces Advance Near Stupochky and Conduct Infiltration Missions in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances north of the T-0504 highway near Stupochky and infiltration missions in northeastern Kostyantynivka, causing a brief price peak.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
On January 20-21, Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kostyantynivka but did not achieve significant advances. Ukrainian forces struck back at infiltration attempts, maintaining defensive positions. This ongoing stalemate contributed to a gradual market price decline reflecting doubts about rapid Russian capture.
Russian forces push deep into Kostyantynivka area amid ongoing clashes
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
By January 21, Russian forces were reported to have pushed deeper into Kostyantynivka, with intensified clashes and drone pressure, but no decisive capture. This sustained fighting without clear victory contributed to market uncertainty and a price trough.
US‑Ukraine talks with Putin continue; Russian infiltrations around Kostyantynivka fail to shift front
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On 21 January, ISW noted that Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka did not change the front line, and simultaneous news of US‑Ukrainian talks with Putin signaled no new diplomatic breakthrough. The combination of stalled Russian advances and lack of a political resolution reinforced market doubts, contributing to a further decline of the “December 31 2026” probability to 88 % by 20 January.
Russia Sets Full Seizure of Donetsk Region as Top 2026 Battlefield Priority
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Reports emerged that Russia has prioritized capturing the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area in 2026, though analysts assess the timeline of full capture by April 2026 as highly unrealistic.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka, including infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating ongoing intense fighting but no decisive Russian capture at this time. This maintained high market confidence in eventual Russian capture but not immediate success.
ISW reports new Russian infiltration near Kostyantynivka on Jan 21
June 30, 2026 drops to 88%6%
ISW’s Jan 21 report described fresh Russian infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, reinforcing market expectations that Russia was closing in on the city and further lifting odds for a capture by early summer.
Russian Forces Advance North of Highway Near Stupochky
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces made tactical advances north of the T-0504 highway near Stupochky, east of Kostyantynivka.
ISW confirms new Russian advances north of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
ISW’s Jan 21 report documented fresh Russian advances north of the Kostyantynivka–Pokrovsk highway and additional attacks east and south of the town. The perceived Russian momentum led the market to raise the “December 31 2026” probability back up to 95 % on Jan 20‑21, the highest level in the window.
Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka fail to change control of terrain
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
Geolocated footage published on January 20 and 21 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian forces after infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka, with no change in control of terrain. This indicated continued stalemate and limited Russian progress, affecting market confidence.
Kremlin says Trump asked Putin to pause strikes ahead of negotiations
The Kremlin reported that President Trump personally requested a pause in Russian strikes, suggesting a possible de‑escalation that briefly lifted the market’s outlook for a December‑31 capture.
Ukraine receives air defense missiles aiding defense against Russian strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 18-20, Ukraine received shipments of air defense missiles that significantly improved its ability to down Russian drones and missiles during a massive strike campaign, limiting damage and bolstering defense. This development likely tempered market expectations for a swift Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Market reacts to intensified Russian drone strikes and skepticism over peace progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
By January 20, 2026, intensified Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, coupled with skepticism from Ukrainian officials about Russia's willingness to end the war, led to a further decline in market confidence regarding Russia's capture of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian strikes hit Ukrainian energy assets, causing widespread blackouts
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
A coordinated Russian attack on Ukrainian power facilities triggered rolling blackouts across several cities, heightening concerns that Russia was intensifying pressure rather than pausing for negotiations, further lowering confidence in a quick capture of Kostyantynivka by year‑end.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russia conducted a large-scale attack on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure with hundreds of drones and missiles, intensifying the conflict and undermining peace talks. This escalation contributed to a market price drop reflecting increased uncertainty about the conflict’s resolution.
Ukrainian forces marginally advance along Donetska railway in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 20, Ukrainian forces made slight advances along the Donetska railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, countering Russian pressure and preventing further Russian territorial gains, which contributed to a dip in market confidence.
Russian forces scale up drone ambushes targeting Ukrainian logistics near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Increased use of drone ambushes by Russian forces aimed at Ukrainian logistics in the Kostyantynivka direction signaled intensified operational pressure, sustaining market confidence in Russian offensive persistence despite limited territorial gains.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka as Russia Makes Localized Gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed a marginal Ukrainian advance along the railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces made localized advances in nearby areas, contributing to a temporary dip in the market.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kostyantynivka after infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Geolocated footage on January 20 and 21 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian troops in northeastern Kostyantynivka following Russian infiltration missions that did not change frontline control, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and contributing to a price dip in the market.
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks to resume in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
A new round of U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine was scheduled to resume in Abu Dhabi, reflecting continued diplomatic efforts despite persistent fighting and drone attacks. The talks aimed to address key issues including territorial disputes, influencing market expectations about the conflict's duration and Russia's territorial ambitions.
Ukrainian forces marginally advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian marginal advances along the Donetska railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces also advanced nearby, reflecting a stalemate with active combat and infiltration attempts, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Along Donetska Railway in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances along the Donetska railway, pushing back against Russian infiltration efforts inside southeastern Kostyantynivka.
Russian Military Splits Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Grouping into Two Tactical Groups
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Reports emerged that Russia split its forces in the sector into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to target the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces achieved a marginal advance in nearby Ivanopillya.
Ukrainian forces advance marginally in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 19, Ukrainian forces made small advances in central Ivanopillya south of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces held positions nearby. This Ukrainian progress contributed to a market price drop to 88%, reflecting reduced likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
Russian drone strike kills 12 miners on bus in Dnipro
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
A Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro resulted in 12 deaths, highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and prompting traders to lower expectations for a swift Russian advance on Kostyantynivka.
ISW: Russian offensive around Kostyantynivka stalls with no gains reported
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
The ISW assessment for 19 January 2026 reported that Russian forces had made no territorial gains and that Ukrainian observers believed the Russian push toward Kostyantynivka had stalled. The lack of progress and reports of failed infiltration attempts reduced market confidence, causing the price to fall sharply to its trough (88 % Yes) on 19 January.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Central Ivanopillya South of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in central Ivanopillya, pushing back against Russian pressure and contributing to a drop in the market's confidence of a Russian capture.
Ukrainian Forces Advance South of Kostyantynivka as Russia Splits Regional Command
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in central Ivanopillya, south of Kostyantynivka, while Russia split its regional forces into two tactical groups to target the city's flanks. This defensive success contributed to the market price dropping to its 87% low.
ISW says Russia aims to split and capture Kostyantynivka by spring 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
ISW reported that Russian forces were planning coordinated assaults to seize the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling an intensified push toward full capture. Traders interpreted this as a raise in the likelihood that Russia would take the city by the end of 2026, nudging the Dec 31 market upward.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and Russian advances stall near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Geolocated footage and reports indicated Ukrainian marginal advances and Russian forces seizing some nearby villages but failing to fully capture Kostyantynivka. Russian tactical groups aimed to seize the city halves but faced strong resistance, leading to a market price drop from 92% to 88% by January 20, reflecting increased uncertainty about Russian success.
Russian military command redeploys forces and plans to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 18-19, reports indicated Russian forces split into Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups aiming to seize western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka respectively, signaling intensified efforts though no confirmed full capture occurred.
Russian tactical groups intensify efforts to seize Kostyantynivka
Russian forces split into Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups aiming to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves respectively, indicating a focused effort to capture the city. However, Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks continued, reflecting ongoing contested control and uncertainty in the market.
Russia Splits Kostyantynivka Forces Into Two Tactical Groups to Envelop City
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russian forces divided their grouping in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to target the western and eastern flanks of the city.
Russia Splits Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Forces into Two Tactical Groups
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russian forces split their grouping into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to target the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces made marginal advances south of the city.
Russian military plans to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Russian military command tasked the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka respectively, signaling a focused offensive effort. Despite these plans, Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, limiting Russian advances.
Russian military splits forces into two tactical groups to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Russian command divided its forces into Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups aiming to capture western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka respectively, indicating a coordinated effort to complete the city's seizure. This strategic move likely influenced market perceptions of eventual Russian success.
Russia Splits Forces Into Two Tactical Groups to Complete Seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Military observers reported that Russia split its forces in the tactical area into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut groups to advance on the western and eastern flanks of the city.
Russian Command Splits Kostyantynivka Offensive into Two Tactical Groups
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
The Russian military command split its forces into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to attempt a pincer movement on the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka.
Russian Command Splits Kostyantynivka Forces into Two Tactical Groups
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
The Russian military command split its forces in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to outflank and complete the seizure of the city, while Ukrainian forces made marginal advances in Ivanopillya.
Russian military redeploys forces to Kostyantynivka area amid ongoing attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 19, 2026, reports indicated Russian redeployment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to Kostyantynivka and continued attacks in multiple directions around the city. Ukrainian forces reported holding key positions nearby, maintaining uncertainty reflected in a price drop to 88%.
Russian command splits forces aiming to seize Kostyantynivka but Ukrainian defense holds
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Russian military command divided forces into two tactical groups to capture Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks. Despite these plans and some territorial claims, Ukrainian forces maintained positions, limiting Russian progress and causing market price to decline.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
On January 18-19, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with some claims of advances in nearby settlements but no confirmed capture of the city. Ukrainian forces also advanced in some areas, maintaining a contested frontline and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russia strikes Ukrainian cities killing 1, wounding 31 as peace talks begin
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv occurred just before peace talks in Abu Dhabi, with Ukrainian officials condemning the strikes during negotiations. This escalation likely contributed to the market's price drop to 87% at the time.
Russian Military Splits Kostyantynivka Offensive Grouping into Two Tactical Groups
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%2%
Russian forces reportedly split their grouping in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to target the western and eastern flanks of the city.
Russian drone strike on Kharkiv kills 19, wounds 27
Russia conducted drone attacks on Kharkiv, injuring 27 people, further escalating tensions during the peace process.
Russian command reorganizes forces to intensify Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
In mid-January, Russian military command redeployed and split forces into tactical groups aiming to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves. This indicated a focused effort to capture the city, sustaining market optimism despite ongoing contested fighting.
Russian command plans to seize Kostyantynivka with coordinated tactical groups
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
Russian military observers reported that the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to capture Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks respectively, indicating a focused effort to take the city. This strategic planning coincided with a market price drop from 93% to 90% around January 19, possibly reflecting uncertainty about the operation's success.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Ivanopillya as Russian Forces Seize Nearby Villages
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian tactical advances south of Kostyantynivka in Ivanopillya, while Russian forces made progress in Stupochky and Predtechyne, leading to a slight drop in the market's probability.
Russian tactical groups push to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka respectively, indicating a focused Russian offensive on the city. This raised market expectations for eventual capture, supporting a high price near 94%.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian-occupied building in eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%6%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building in eastern Kostyantynivka after a Russian infiltration mission, exposing Russian claims of advance as exaggerated.
Ukrainian forces counterattack, Russian advances stall near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced along the Donetska railway in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces' infiltration attempts failed to alter control. This counterattack contributed to a price drop reflecting reduced likelihood of imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian Military Observer Reports Russian Seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%5%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian forces were advancing on Kostyantynivka, but ISW later assessed that Russian claims of seizing villages were exaggerated and inconsistent with geolocated footage.
Russian forces split into tactical groups aiming to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian military command divided forces into Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups tasked with capturing western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signaling intensified efforts to take the city. This raised market confidence in eventual capture, pushing prices higher.
Russian tactical groups aim to complete seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups planned to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves respectively, signaling intensified Russian efforts to capture the city. This raised market expectations for eventual Russian control.
Russian tactical groups tasked with seizing Kostyantynivka flanks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 19, reports indicated Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups aimed to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka by advancing on its western and eastern flanks, showing coordinated Russian efforts to capture the city.
Russian military redeploys forces near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
In December 2025, Russian command redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar area, replacing airborne units. Russian forces continued strikes and infiltration attempts, but Ukrainian forces held positions and advanced nearby, indicating a stalemate.
Russian forces launch multi-directional assaults around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian military command tasked multiple tactical groups to advance on Kostyantynivka's flanks aiming to seize the city, with assaults reported near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages. This marked a significant escalation in Russia's 2026 offensive, increasing market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
ISW Releases Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Showing Russian Advances Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
The ISW assessment reported Russian advances in eastern Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian forces advanced in central Ivanopillya. This mixed assessment contributed to the market's price drop to 89% on Jan 19.
Russia plans coordinated assault to capture Kostyantynivka, sources say
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The ISW assessment quoted Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets saying Russian forces were tasked to seize both western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka and then push on Kramatorsk. The prospect of a coordinated two‑pronged assault raised market optimism that the city could fall before year‑end, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up to its January 14 peak (94 %).
Ukrainian Commander States Kostyantynivka Defense Could Tie Down Russian Army for All of 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
Reports highlighted that the defense of Kostyantynivka is highly fortified and could stall Russian offensive operations for the entirety of 2026, casting doubt on a rapid capture.
ISW: Russian forces attack Kostyantynivka but make no gains on Jan 19, 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%6%
The ISW assessment for Jan 19 reported intense Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka but explicitly said Russian forces “did not advance” and Ukrainian units were still holding key positions. The lack of progress reduced the perceived probability of a Russian capture by the end of 2026, driving the market price down to a low of 87 % on Jan 19.
Ukrainian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka, indicating Ukrainian gains in the area and likely influencing market expectations of Russian capture.
Russian command redeploys forces to Kostyantynivka area aiming to complete seizure
In December 2025, Russian military redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to Kostyantynivka to replace other units, with tactical groups formed to attempt seizure of the city, signaling intensified but still incomplete efforts.
Russian forces redeploy and intensify multi-directional attacks around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%5%
By mid-January, Russian command redeployed units to the Kostyantynivka area and launched attacks from multiple directions aiming to seize the city’s western and eastern flanks. Despite these efforts, Russian forces had not consolidated control, maintaining a contested status that kept market prices near recent levels.
Russian forces intensify multi-flank attacks on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%5%
Russian military command tasked tactical groups to seize western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, with ongoing attacks around the city and nearby villages, signaling a concerted effort to capture the city. This increased pressure likely contributed to a peak in market confidence around this date.
ISW says Russia failed to seize Kostyantynivka; Ukraine makes gains nearby
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
The ISW assessment on 19 January reported that Russian tactical groups had failed to capture Kostyantynivka and that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced in central Ivanopillya, while Russian claims of seizing nearby villages were unverified. The perceived setback lowered the market’s confidence that Russia would take the city by the end of 2026, driving the “December 31 2026” outcome down from 94 % to 91 % that day.
Russian tactical groups tasked to complete seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
On January 19, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were ordered to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves, indicating a coordinated effort that maintained market confidence despite ongoing fighting.
Russian and Ukrainian forces contest territory near Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
Russian forces redeployed units to the Kostyantynivka area and claimed advances in nearby villages, while Ukrainian forces held positions and retook territory near Pokrovsk. The ongoing contested fighting without decisive Russian capture kept market confidence fluctuating downward.
Russia designates two tactical groups to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On 19 January 2026 ISW reported that Russian command split its forces into two tactical groups specifically tasked with seizing Kostyantynivka. The announcement of a dedicated capture plan revived optimism, sending the market back up to 94 % on 20 January.
Ukrainian commander reports Russian forces attempting to encircle Kostyantynivka
On January 19, Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian forces concentrated efforts to encircle Kostyantynivka but lacked sufficient combat capabilities for a full assault. This indicated ongoing stalemate and limited Russian progress, contributing to market price declines for near-term capture.
Russian command tasks tactical groups to seize Kostyantynivka flanks
Russian military assigned tactical groups to capture western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signaling intent for a decisive offensive, but Ukrainian forces maintained resistance, limiting progress.
Russian Forces Split Grouping as Ukrainian Forces Advance in Ivanopillya
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Russian forces split their tactical groups to target Kostyantynivka from multiple flanks, but Ukrainian forces successfully advanced in central Ivanopillya, causing the market price to drop to its low of 88%.
Russian military tasked tactical groups to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
On January 18 and 19, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka with tactical groups assigned to capture the western and eastern halves of the city, signaling intensified efforts. However, no confirmed full capture occurred, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and market uncertainty.
Russian Military Command Tasks Tactical Groups to Complete Seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Military observer reports revealed that Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked with advancing on the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka to complete its seizure.
Russian military plans coordinated assaults on Kostyantynivka flanks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
On January 19, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian tactical groups aimed to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves, indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture the city. This heightened military activity likely supported the market's high probability for capture but also highlighted ongoing contested fighting.
Russian command splits forces to seize Kostyantynivka from west and east flanks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
On January 19, Russian military command tasked two tactical groups to capture Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves, reflecting a coordinated but challenging offensive that maintained market uncertainty.
Market confidence dips amid reports of limited Russian consolidation near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Around January 19, the market price dropped to 87% as reports highlighted Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating stalled progress and causing a temporary loss of confidence in capture timing.
Russian forces split into two tactical groups to complete Kostyantynivka seizure
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Russian forces divided into Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to advance on Kostyantynivka from west and east, aiming to complete the city's capture and advance toward Kramatorsk. Despite this, Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, limiting Russian progress and contributing to a market price decline.
Market price drops following reports of ongoing peace negotiations
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%5%
The market experienced a dip in confidence as reports of continued trilateral peace talks in the UAE suggested potential for a diplomatic resolution, despite ongoing hostilities.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Kostyantynivka as Russian Tactical Groups Coordinate Seizure Plans
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing south of Kostyantynivka in Ivanopillya, while Russian tactical groups coordinated plans to seize the western and eastern flanks of the city.
Russian MoD claims capture of Novopavlivka near Kostyantynivka
The Russian MoD claimed to have seized the settlement of Novopavlivka southwest of Druzhkivka, a move that would indicate a widening of the Russian front and could raise expectations of a future capture of Kostyantynivka, supporting the market’s upward pressure seen through mid‑January.
Ukrainian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut Tactical Groups Target Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%6%
Ukrainian tactical groups announced plans to seize Kostyantynivka, indicating active counteroffensive efforts that influenced market expectations.
Russian Forces Seize Key Towns East of Kostyantynivka as Command Sets Encirclement Goals
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Geolocated footage indicated Russian forces likely seized Stupochky and Predtechyne, while military observers reported Russian plans to advance on the flanks of Kostyantynivka.
Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka face Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
By January 19, Russian infiltration attempts north and east of Kostyantynivka were met with Ukrainian strikes, preventing changes in control. This resistance contributed to a market price drop reflecting doubts about imminent Russian capture of the city.
Emergency power cuts hit Ukrainian cities amid peace‑talk uncertainty
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Widespread electricity outages in Kyiv and other cities were reported as talks stalled, reinforcing expectations that Russia would continue pressure on the front line rather than accelerate territorial gains, nudging the market down further.
Russian command splits forces into two tactical groups to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 19, reports indicated that Russian forces divided into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to attack Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks respectively, aiming to complete the city's seizure. This strategic development underscored intensified Russian efforts, coinciding with a price peak at 94%.
Russian forces likely seize nearby settlements east of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
By January 19, geolocated footage suggested Russian forces had likely seized Stupochky and Predtechyne east of Kostyantynivka, indicating incremental territorial gains. However, Ukrainian forces continued to hold Kostyantynivka itself and counterattacked in nearby areas, maintaining a contested frontline and causing market price volatility.
Russia Splits Forces Into Specialized Tactical Groups to Seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%4%
Russian military command split its forces in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area into the Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups to target the western and eastern flanks of the city, respectively.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro kills dozens, heightening tensions ahead of peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
A Russian drone hit a bus of mineworkers in Dnipro on Jan 19, killing at least twelve and injuring many others, underscoring the ongoing violence and prompting analysts to reassess the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by year‑end.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Ivanopillya as Russia Splits Kostyantynivka Offensive Group
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in central Ivanopillya, south of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces split their regional grouping into two separate tactical groups, diluting concentrated offensive power.
Russian tactical groups plan to complete seizure of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
On January 19, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups intended to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, advancing from west and east flanks respectively. This strategic intent likely influenced market confidence, though actual control remained contested.
Russian forces likely seize Stupochky and Predtechyne east of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Geolocated footage published on January 19 indicated Russian forces had likely captured Stupochky and Predtechyne east of Kostyantynivka, marking incremental territorial gains though not a full capture of the city.
Russian command tasks groups to seize Kostyantynivka's western and eastern flanks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
By January 18-19, Russian military command assigned tactical groups to capture Kostyantynivka's western and eastern halves, signaling a coordinated push to seize the city, though Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area.
Russia forms two tactical groups aiming to capture Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
A Russian‑military observer reported that Russia had split its forces into two tactical groups specifically tasked with seizing the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka. The explicit capture plan revived market confidence, nudging the price back up.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro bus kills at least 12 miners
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
A Russian drone hit a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro, killing dozens and underscoring Russia’s willingness to target civilian infrastructure, which pushed the market down as analysts saw increased pressure on Ukrainian towns like Kostyantynivka.
Putin’s Kremlin claims capture of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole ahead of peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
The Russian General Staff announced that its forces had taken full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia, suggesting a broader offensive that could include Kostyantynivka, prompting the market to drop the probability of a December‑31 capture.
Russian missile and drone attacks intensify on Ukraine amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Russia launched massive missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure and cities, undermining diplomatic efforts and causing civilian hardship. This escalation led to a decline in market confidence regarding a timely Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to strengthen support amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders to reinforce European backing for Ukraine during critical U.S.-led peace negotiations. The show of unity aimed to maintain pressure on Russia and support Ukraine's position, stabilizing market expectations for a negotiated outcome by year-end.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults near Kostyantynivka amid heavy fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 18, Ukrainian defenders held back multiple Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka, inflicting significant losses and maintaining control of key positions. This defensive success contributed to a market price dip from 93% to 91%, reflecting cautious sentiment about near-term capture.
Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine’s power grid during peace negotiations
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russia intensified missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in freezing winter conditions, aiming to weaken Ukrainian morale and resistance while peace talks continued without resolution, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian milbloggers question inflated claims of gains near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 18, 2026, Russian milbloggers publicly warned that claims of Russian advances near Kostyantynivka were exaggerated, casting doubt on the offensive's progress and contributing to a price drop from 93% to 91%.
Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks and repel Russian infiltrations near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
By January 18, Ukrainian forces were actively counterattacking and eliminating Russian infiltration groups in and around Kostyantynivka, preventing Russian territorial gains. This defensive success contributed to a market price drop from 91% to 89%.
Ukrainian Commander Warns Russia Is Attempting to Outflank and Isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces were attempting to cut ground lines of communication to isolate the city using small-group infiltration tactics during poor weather.
ISW notes Russian infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka on Jan 17
June 30, 2026 drops to 88%6%
ISW reported Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka that did not change front‑line control, but the repeated Russian attempts were interpreted as a sign of growing pressure on the city, pushing market odds higher for a capture before mid‑year.
Kremlin‑linked milblogger flags inflated Russian gains near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
A Kremlin‑affiliated milblogger warned that Russian claims of gains in the Kostyantynivka direction were inflated, sparking debate among Russian analysts. The criticism of exaggerated Russian advances caused market participants to pull back optimism, lowering the “December 31 2026” probability from 94 % to 92 % on Jan 16‑17.
US and Ukrainian Delegations Hold Peace Talks in Miami
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%2%
High-level Ukrainian negotiators met with US officials in Miami to discuss security guarantees and a post-war recovery package, signaling active diplomatic efforts to end the war.
Massive Russian bombings level large parts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
A Russian air strike hit dozens of buildings in Kostyantynivka, causing extensive destruction. The attack raised market expectations that Russia might finally seize the city, pushing the “December 31, 2026” price up to a 95 % high on Jan 9.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, suspected Ukrainian involvement
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed in a car bomb attack in Moscow, with investigators pursuing the theory of Ukrainian intelligence involvement. This assassination highlighted ongoing covert conflict and instability, contributing to uncertainty about the war's trajectory and limiting market gains on peace prospects.
Russian drone attacks kill and wound civilians in Ukraine amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%2%
Russia launched drone attacks on Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv, killing and wounding civilians during ongoing peace negotiations, undermining diplomatic efforts but not causing major shifts in territorial control, thus keeping market prices stable.
Russian forces continue infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka amid adverse weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 17, Russian forces persisted in infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka, attempting to isolate the city despite foggy and windy conditions. These efforts did not yield confirmed territorial gains but maintained pressure on Ukrainian defenses, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Russian Tactics to Outflank and Isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces were attempting to outflank Kostyantynivka and cut ground lines of communication using small infantry groups under cover of poor weather.
Ukrainian drone commander reports Russian attempts to outflank and isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
On January 17, a Ukrainian drone battalion commander stated that Russian forces were trying to outflank Kostyantynivka and cut Ukrainian supply lines to isolate the city, using small infantry groups amid poor weather. This indicated ongoing Russian offensive efforts but no decisive breakthrough, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian missile strike on Kyiv amid peace‑talks, signaling continued offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
A fresh Russian missile barrage hit Kyiv and other cities while diplomatic delegations met in Abu Dhabi, reinforcing the view that Moscow was maintaining pressure and reducing confidence in a swift capture of Kostyantynivka before the end of the year.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Russian Efforts to Outflank and Isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces were attempting to outflank the city and cut ground lines of communication using small infantry groups in poor weather.
Russian forces intensify assaults and infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 17-18, Russian forces conducted motorized assaults and infiltration attempts to cut off Ukrainian logistics into Kostyantynivka, using drones to interdict supplies. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces maintained resistance, and Russian advances remained limited, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Russian Strategy to Outflank and Isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces were attempting to outflank Kostyantynivka and cut ground lines of communication to isolate the city, signaling a concerted offensive preparation.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Russian Infiltration Tactics to Outflank and Isolate Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
A Ukrainian drone battalion commander reported that Russian forces were exploiting poor weather conditions to infiltrate and outflank Kostyantynivka in an effort to cut off ground lines of communication.
Ukrainian brigade downs Russian Grad and tank near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 57%14%
Ukrainian forces reported destroying a Russian Grad MLRS and a tank on the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, signalling strong Ukrainian resistance. The market reacted with a modest dip in the June 30 2026 price.
Russia pushes toward Illinivka and southwestern Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian units moved toward the village of Illinivka west of the city and began assaults from Yablunivka along the H‑20 highway. The heightened pressure raised confidence that Russia could capture the whole city before year‑end, nudging the “December 31, 2026” price upward to 94 %.
Russian Milbloggers Warn of Inflated Battlefield Gains in Kostyantynivka Direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger warned that exaggerated reports of Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka direction were creating a false battlefield reality, highlighting a significant gap between claimed and actual frontline progress.
Ukrainian Forces Counter Russian Infiltration and Outflanking Maneuvers Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Ukrainian commanders reported that Russian forces were attempting to bypass and isolate the city using small infantry groups, but Ukrainian drone units successfully detected and struck these infiltrators.
Russian forces attempt to outflank Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
On January 17, Russian forces attempted to outflank Kostyantynivka and cut Ukrainian supply lines using small infantry groups, but infiltration missions did not yield confirmed advances. This maintained uncertainty about Russian ability to capture the city soon.
Russian forces attempt infiltration and assaults around Kostyantynivka amid foggy weather
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, attempting to outflank and isolate the city using small infantry groups and drone strikes. Foggy and windy conditions favored Russian infiltration efforts, increasing the threat to Ukrainian control and raising concerns about the city's vulnerability.
Kremlin-affiliated milblogger warns of Kostyantynivka advance collapse
A third Kremlin-affiliated milblogger published a map showing the discrepancy between Russian claims of gains and the actual extent of advances, warning the situation could deteriorate as badly as in the Kupyansk direction.
Russian infiltration missions continue near Kostyantynivka without confirmed territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
On January 16, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions north and east of Kostyantynivka, striking Ukrainian positions but failing to change control of terrain. This maintained pressure but indicated stalled progress, contributing to a gradual market price decline.
Constructive peace talks held in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S.
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Negotiations in Abu Dhabi involving representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States were described as constructive with plans for further talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no major breakthroughs, which maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka with increased use of drones and infiltration tactics under winter conditions, indicating sustained offensive operations and pressure on Ukrainian defenses, supporting the market's high probability of capture.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
On January 15-16, Russian forces attacked various positions around Kostyantynivka, including within the city and surrounding villages, indicating persistent offensive efforts but no decisive capture. This sustained pressure maintained market confidence in eventual capture but did not significantly alter probabilities.
Russian forces launch attacks around Kostyantynivka; Ukraine reports limited gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
The ISW report described a wave of Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka on Jan 15‑16, but also noted that Ukrainian forces reported only limited infiltration with no terrain change. The mixed picture caused the market to pull back sharply on Jan 14‑15, dropping the “December 31 2026” price by three points.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 16, Russian forces carried out infiltration missions north of Kostyantynivka, including entering Markove, but these did not result in changes to control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area, indicating limited operational success and contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Motorcycle Assault Attempting to Outflank Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Ukrainian defenders successfully detected and neutralized a Russian motorized assault on motorcycles aimed at cutting off logistics and outflanking Kostyantynivka.
U.S. offers Ukraine a 15‑year security guarantee in new peace plan
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
The announcement of a long‑term U.S. security guarantee was intended to bolster Ukraine’s negotiating position, but analysts saw it as a signal that Russia would not be forced to concede territory quickly, keeping the market’s outlook for a December capture modestly lower.
Russian attacks kill 1 and wound dozens ahead of second day of peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian drone and missile attacks killed civilians and wounded dozens in Ukraine just as peace talks were underway in Abu Dhabi, highlighting ongoing conflict despite diplomatic efforts. This likely caused some market uncertainty, reflected in price fluctuations.
IAEA brokers localized ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
The International Atomic Energy Agency secured a localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to allow repairs to a critical backup power line at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This demonstrated limited cooperation amid conflict, influencing market sentiment about broader ceasefire prospects by mid-2026.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid infiltration attempts
Russian units, including the 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, launched strikes in and around Kostyantynivka on January 15-16. Ukrainian forces repelled infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, maintaining defensive positions and limiting Russian gains.
Russian forces attempt to encircle and cut off logistics in Kostyantynivka but are repelled
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
On January 16, Russian troops tried to outflank Kostyantynivka and sever Ukrainian logistics using motorcycle-mounted infantry, but Ukrainian forces detected and neutralized the assault, demonstrating effective defense and limiting Russian progress.
Ukrainian troops repulse Russian encirclement attempt at Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%5%
Mezha reported that a Russian attempt to encircle and cut logistics in Kostyantynivka was detected and repelled on Jan 16. The setback caused the market to drop sharply from 92 % (Jan 16) to 87 % (Jan 19), signaling a reduced probability of capture by year‑end.
Zelensky reports air defense missile shipment boosting Ukraine's defense
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 16, Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged that Ukraine's air defense supplies were insufficient but reported receiving a substantial missile package that day, improving Ukraine's capability to defend against Russian drone and missile strikes. This likely reduced market expectations for a rapid Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces conduct strikes and infiltration attempts in eastern Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Elements of Russian motorized rifle regiments and drone operators struck Ukrainian forces in eastern Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on January 15 and 16, with infiltration missions reported though without changing control of terrain. This sustained pressure contributed to market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage on January 16 showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka, with infiltration missions north of the city that did not change control of terrain. Russian attacks occurred around Kostyantynivka but without confirmed advances, indicating ongoing pressure but no decisive capture. This maintained market confidence but tempered expectations.
Ukrainian Forces Neutralize Russian Motorized Assault Attempting to Ambush Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Russian forces attempted to ambush Kostyantynivka on motorcycles to sever Ukrainian logistics, but the assault was detected and neutralized by Ukrainian defenders.
Russian Forces Attempt to Encircle Kostyantynivka but Lack Combat Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that while Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kostyantynivka, they cannot concentrate the necessary forces to advance deeper or launch a full-scale assault.
Russian forces intensify attacks southeast of Kostyantynivka but fail to consolidate
On January 15, Russian forces concentrated attacks on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka, including Berestok and Stepanivka, with some tactical gains but no consolidation. Ukrainian forces also advanced nearby, indicating a contested frontline and limiting Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces make limited advance southeast of Kostyantynivka, observer says
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Mashovets reported that Russian forces had intensified small‑unit attacks southeast of Kostyantynivka and managed a limited one‑kilometre advance from Chasiv Yar toward Stinky. The news suggested a possible Russian breakthrough, which pushed the market higher (from 89 % on Jan 1 to 94 % on Jan 3).
Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka stall, observers say
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
The ISW assessment on 15 January 2026 noted that Russian forces were concentrating attacks around Kostyantynivka but were failing to consolidate gains. The mixed signal of heavy fighting without clear progress led the market to pull back, lowering the “Yes” probability to 89 % on 2 January.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 15, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, focusing on multiple settlements, while Ukrainian forces made advances in nearby areas. The mixed developments kept market probabilities stable with slight fluctuations.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka but fail to consolidate
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian troops increased attacks on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka, including Berestok and Stepanivka, with frequent small group assaults. Despite some advances northeast of the city, they failed to hold new positions, maintaining a stalemate that tempered market optimism.
Russian forces intensify attacks on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka
On January 15, Russian forces concentrated attacks on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka, including Berestok and Stepanivka, using small assault groups multiple times daily. Despite some tactical successes, they failed to consolidate positions, indicating persistent but limited offensive capability.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Predtechyne as Russia Concentrates Infantry Assaults
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing east of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces shifted to small-group infantry tactics without vehicles, contributing to a price drop to 91%.
U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi continue amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. resumed in Abu Dhabi on January 15, 2026, aiming to end the nearly four-year conflict. Despite diplomatic progress, Russian forces continued attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, reflecting unresolved territorial disputes and military pressure that tempered market optimism about a swift Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian command prepares for assault on Kostyantynivka but lacks capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
On January 15, reports indicated Russian forces concentrated efforts around Kostyantynivka with plans for a mass infiltration and full-scale assault, but lacked the combat capabilities to execute it. This tempered market optimism about imminent capture.
Mashovets says Russian small‑unit assaults intensify but stall near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Mashovets reported intensifying Russian small‑unit attacks southeast of Kostyantynivka and limited gains of only about one kilometre. The mixed signal—active attacks but no consolidation—coincided with the market’s dip to 88 % on Jan 19.
Russia intensifies attacks near Kostyantynivka but fails to consolidate gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The 15 January assessment highlighted intensified Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka but also reported that Russian forces could not consolidate positions and were limited to small‑scale assaults. This mixed picture initially nudged the market upward to 94 % on 4 January, but the later acknowledgment of limited gains set the stage for the subsequent declines.
Russia plans Kostyantynivka assault mirroring Pokrovsk strategy
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
RBC‑Ukraine reported that Russia was preparing a new assault on Kostyantynivka using the successful Pokrovsk playbook; analysts noted the plan could accelerate a capture before the year‑end, pushing the market’s “December 31” probability up sharply.
Russian forces concentrate attacks southeast of Kostyantynivka with frequent small group assaults
On January 15, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian forces attacking settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka multiple times daily with small infantry groups, achieving some localized advances but unable to consolidate positions. This sustained pressure contributed to market confidence in eventual Russian capture but uncertainty remained.
Russian Forces Prepare for Mass Infiltration and Assault on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces are concentrating efforts in the Kostyantynivka direction and preparing for a mass infiltration and full-scale assault, though they currently lack the necessary combat capabilities.
Russian forces make significant progress infiltrating southwestern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
By mid-January, Russian forces infiltrated deeper into southwestern Kostyantynivka's residential areas and improved positions in surrounding forests, indicating ongoing offensive efforts but without decisive control.
Russian Forces Infiltrate Low-Rise Residential Areas of Southwestern Kostyantynivka
Russian forces consolidated positions in southern Illinka, allowing reconnaissance groups to penetrate the low-rise residential sectors of southwestern Kostyantynivka for the first time.
Russian forces advance into southwestern Kostyantynivka residential areas
Russian troops infiltrated deeper into southwestern Kostyantynivka, entering low-rise residential parts and improving positions northeast of Yablunivka, signaling significant progress in their offensive. This development likely reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Forces Concentrate Efforts Near Kostyantynivka but Lack Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that while Russia is preparing for a mass infiltration and full-scale assault on Kostyantynivka, they currently lack the combat capabilities required to increase attack intensity and advance deeper.
Russian forces intensify small group infiltration attacks near Kostyantynivka
Russian forces concentrated efforts on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka, conducting frequent small group infiltration attacks but failing to consolidate significant territorial gains. This indicated persistent but limited offensive pressure without decisive breakthroughs.
Military Analyst Reports Russia Lacks Combat Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault on Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that while Russian forces are preparing for a mass infiltration, they currently lack the necessary combat capabilities to execute a full-scale assault on Kostyantynivka.
Russian Forces Concentrate Small-Group Infantry Attacks Southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces concentrated efforts southeast of the city, launching frequent small-group infantry assaults to infiltrate Ukrainian lines.
Russian Forces Deploy Small-Group Tactics Southeast of Kostyantynivka
Russian forces concentrated efforts southeast of Kostyantynivka, launching frequent small-group infantry assaults without vehicles to slowly advance toward the city's outskirts.
US and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue after Ukraine talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
The U.S. and Russia agreed to resume high-level military communication for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential easing of tensions and a step toward diplomatic engagement amid ongoing conflict. This development coincided with prisoner exchanges and ongoing peace talks, impacting market sentiment about the conflict's resolution timeline.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Tactical Area
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances east of Kostyantynivka, while reports indicated Russian forces lacked the combat capabilities for a full-scale assault on the city.
ISW notes Ukrainian advances near Kostyantynivka, Russian attacks deemed limited
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
The Jan 15 2026 assessment reported Ukrainian advances near Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka and highlighted that Russian cross‑border attacks in late December 2025 and mid‑January 2026 were only limited “informational” incursions. The mixed picture of Ukrainian gains and limited Russian progress pushed the market down from a high of 94 % (Jan 2 2026) to 92 % (Jan 6 2026).
Ukrainian Military Observer Reports Russia Lacks Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault on Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that while Russian forces are preparing for a mass infiltration, they currently lack the combat capabilities required for a full-scale assault on Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 14 and 15, Russian forces attacked multiple positions around Kostyantynivka but did not secure a decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian forces also advanced nearby, indicating a contested front and limited Russian progress, which maintained market confidence in eventual capture but tempered immediate expectations.
Russian Infiltration Reaches Southwestern Residential Areas of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups consolidated in southern Illinka and infiltrated the low-rise residential parts of southwestern Kostyantynivka for the first time, intensifying fears of an imminent urban assault.
Military Analysts Report Russian Forces Lack Combat Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
Reports indicated that while the Russian military command was preparing for a mass infiltration and assault, they lacked the necessary combat capabilities, contributing to a downward trend in market confidence.
Russian forces concentrate attacks on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian troops increased small group assaults on villages southeast of Kostyantynivka, attempting to encircle the city but lacking sufficient forces for a full-scale assault, which limited their progress and maintained uncertainty about the city's fall.
Russia Concentrates Small-Group Infantry Assaults Southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces concentrated intense small-group infantry assaults on settlements southeast of Kostyantynivka, achieving minor unconfirmed advances.
Ukrainian Military Observer Reports Russian Forces Lack Combat Capabilities for Full-Scale Assault on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that while Russian forces are preparing for a mass infiltration, they currently lack the combat capabilities for a full-scale assault on Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces infiltrate southwestern Kostyantynivka residential areas
By January 15, Russian forces had infiltrated deeper into southwestern Kostyantynivka's low-rise residential parts, signaling significant progress in their offensive and supporting market optimism for eventual capture.
ISW Reports Russian Advances Slowed Due to Winter Weather and End of Year Deadlines
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian offensive momentum slowed significantly in late December and early January due to adverse winter conditions.
Winter Weather and End of Year-End Deadlines Slow Russian Advances
ISW reported that Russian offensive tempos slowed in early January due to freezing temperatures complicating infantry infiltration tactics and the conclusion of year-end military deadlines.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Central Ivanopillya South of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Ukrainian advance in Ivanopillya indicated Ukrainian resistance efforts, shifting market perception of Kostyantynivka's capture timeline.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka on January 13 and 14, including near several surrounding settlements, but did not achieve territorial gains. Ukrainian forces counterattacked Russian infiltrations south of Berestok, limiting Russian progress and maintaining defensive positions.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Predtechyne as Russian Infiltration Missions Slow Down
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances east of Kostyantynivka, while winter weather conditions and the end of year-end deadlines slowed overall Russian offensive progress.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
On January 13-14, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked, preventing changes in control. This sustained fighting without decisive Russian gains contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price dip.
Russian drones strike Kostyantynivka‑area but no territorial advance recorded
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%3%
The ISW report on 14 January showed Russian drone operators striking Ukrainian air‑defences and communications in the Kostyantynivka direction but noted that Russian forces made no territorial gain. The lack of progress softened optimism, causing the market to retreat from its peak.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka but make no advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 14, Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not achieve territorial gains, indicating stalled offensive momentum. This contributed to market uncertainty about Russia's ability to capture the city soon, maintaining high but slightly wavering confidence.
Russian advances slow near Kostyantynivka due to winter weather and Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions south of Kostyantynivka but failed to change control of terrain. Winter weather and the end of year deadlines slowed Russian advances, reflected in market price fluctuations around 93-94%.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions south of Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
On January 14, Russian infiltration missions south of Kostyantynivka were struck by Ukrainian forces, with no change in control of terrain. Russian attacks continued around Kostyantynivka but advances slowed, reflecting a stalemate that caused market price fluctuations.
Ukrainian forces advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage published on January 14 showed Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southwestern Predtechyne near Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces attacked multiple nearby settlements. This indicated active Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian territorial gains, supporting a high but slightly uncertain market probability.
Ukrainian‑Russian peace talks stall as Putin demands full territorial recognition
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
During the Abu Dhabi negotiations, President Putin reiterated that Russia will not halt fighting until all occupied territories, including areas not yet seized, are formally recognized, dampening optimism that Russia would secure Kostyantynivka quickly and pulling the December‑31 price down.
Zelenskyy appoints military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov as new chief of staff
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
The appointment of Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, known for his aggressive stance on operations against Russian assets, signaled a shift in Kyiv's administration toward prioritizing defense and security amid intensifying diplomatic efforts.
Russian Advances Slow Down Due to Winter Weather and End of Year-End Deadlines
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
ISW reported that Russian offensive operations and advances slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026 due to adverse winter weather and the conclusion of arbitrary year-end military deadlines.
ISW: Russian advances slow in late‑December/early‑January
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
ISW reported that Russian advances had slowed in late December and early January due to weather and exhausted offensives, lowering expectations that Russia would capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026 and pushing the market down.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and attacks around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 13-14, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, with infiltration missions south of the city. Ukrainian forces counterattacked in some areas, indicating contested control and slowing Russian progress, causing minor market price fluctuations.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
On January 14, Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kostyantynivka, including within the city and nearby settlements, but did not make territorial gains. This persistent but stalled offensive contributed to a slight market price decline reflecting uncertainty about Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces infiltrate south of Kostyantynivka amid slowed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Russian forces reportedly infiltrated south of Kostyantynivka, but overall advances slowed due to winter weather and operational challenges. Russian forces continued offensive operations but faced resistance, leading to fluctuating market confidence in capture timing.
ISW: Russian forces launch fresh assault on Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
The ISW assessment for 14 January 2026 detailed a wave of Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka – multiple strikes on the city itself and surrounding settlements – signalling an intensified offensive. Traders interpreted the fresh offensive pressure as increasing the likelihood of a Russian capture before the end of 2026, pushing the market up to its peak (94 % Yes) on 14 January.
U.S. offers 15‑year security guarantee as Russia claims advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
The United States announced a long‑term security guarantee for Ukraine while President Putin publicly claimed Russian forces were advancing in eastern and southern fronts, casting doubt on the pace of any cease‑fire and further weakening the outlook for a swift capture.
Russian and Ukrainian forces both advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in central Mayske north of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka. Fighting continued around multiple nearby villages, indicating a contested frontline and no decisive Russian breakthrough, which maintained market uncertainty.
Russian forces advance southwest and northeast of Kostyantynivka, entering residential areas
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 13, Russian forces continued to collapse Ukrainian defenses southwest of Kostyantynivka and began bypassing the railway station from the north, capturing positions in residential streets. This progress raised market expectations for eventual Russian capture but without full consolidation.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
A Russian drone strike on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro killed at least a dozen people, underscoring ongoing hostilities despite scheduled peace talks. This violent incident likely contributed to market skepticism about rapid Russian territorial gains, slightly lowering confidence in Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by year-end.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner hold talks with Zelenskyy in Berlin
High-level U.S. diplomatic engagement with Ukraine's leadership signaled progress in peace talks, briefly boosting confidence in a negotiated settlement and impacting market optimism about the timeline for Russian advances.
Ukraine peace talks pause amid Russian missile strikes on Kyiv
Russian attacks on Ukrainian capital Kyiv killed one person and wounded 31, disrupting peace negotiations as envoys prepared to meet in Abu Dhabi.
Russian forces launch extensive attacks around Kostyantynivka; Ukraine reports heavy artillery and drone strikes
ISW’s 13 Jan 2026 report detailed a broad Russian offensive around Kostyantynivka, noting attacks on multiple villages and the redeployment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division. The perceived escalation kept the market firmly above 90 % through January.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
Geolocated footage published on January 12 indicated recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, with attacks near and within the city continuing on January 12 and 13. This suggested some progress but no full capture, supporting a high but slightly uncertain market price.
Critical Threats: Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka on Jan 13 2026
Critical Threats’ January 13 assessment documented renewed Russian attacks across the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and noted Russian attempts to exploit weather, signalling that the offensive was still active and keeping market confidence high (price stayed near 91 %).
Russia’s Oreshnik missile system enters service in Belarus
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Moscow announced that its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missile system is now operational in Belarus, underscoring Russia’s continued focus on strategic weapons rather than ground offensives, which nudged the market slightly lower.
Car bomb kills Russian Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
June 30, 2026 dips to 57%4%
The assassination of a senior Russian general was blamed on Ukrainian intelligence, underscoring the heightened covert conflict and prompting Russian officials to vow stronger retaliation on the front lines, including near Kostyantynivka.
Russian drone strike hits Dnipro bus, killing at least 12 miners
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
A Russian drone hit a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro, killing dozens and underscoring Russia’s willingness to intensify attacks even as diplomatic talks were slated to resume, prompting traders to lower the chance of a quick capture of Kostyantynivka by year‑end.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka with mixed advances and Ukrainian counteractions
On January 12-13, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with Ukrainian forces also advancing in some locations. The ongoing combat and incremental Russian pressure sustained market prices near 94%, reflecting strong belief in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Ukrainian flag raised in Mayske as Russia pushes southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On 12‑13 Jan 2026 both Ukrainian flag‑raising in Mayske and Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka were reported. The mixed news kept the market’s confidence high that Russia would capture the city by the year‑end.
Russian forces advance and collapse Ukrainian defenses southwest of Kostyantynivka
On January 13, Russian forces continued to collapse Ukrainian defenses southwest of Kostyantynivka and advanced into residential areas, indicating ongoing pressure but no full capture yet.
Russia reinforces Kostyantynivka front with 70th Motorized Rifle Division
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
A series of ISW and Critical Threats assessments released on 13 Jan 2026 reported renewed Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and the redeployment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to the area, signalling an escalation that coincided with the market’s move to a new high (94 % on 4 Dec and sustained 90 %+ through January).
Both Sides Advance in Localized Clashes Around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian forces entered the outskirts of Stepanivka and infiltrated Illinivka, while Ukrainian forces successfully cleared Russian groups from the Hora District of northeastern Kostyantynivka and recaptured parts of Predtechyne.
Russian forces advance southwest of Kostyantynivka, entering first houses in Stepanivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian troops continued collapsing Ukrainian defenses southwest of Kostyantynivka, capturing forest plantations west of Stepanivka and entering its first houses, signaling intensified Russian pressure near the city. Ukrainian forces countered by clearing parts of northeastern Kostyantynivka and recapturing areas south of the highway, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting.
Russian forces advance near southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage published on January 12 and 13 indicated Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces maintained strongholds and counterattacked in nearby areas. This suggested active but inconclusive fighting, supporting a high but not certain market price for Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Mayske as Russian Progress Slows
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces raised their flag in central Mayske, north of Kostyantynivka, demonstrating active resistance and localized counter-advances that slowed Russian momentum.
Russian and Ukrainian forces contest multiple areas around Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
By mid-January, Russian forces continued attacks near Kostyantynivka and its outskirts, attempting to exploit poor weather and accumulate forces. Ukrainian forces countered with advances in some areas, maintaining a dynamic but unresolved frontline.
ISW reports intensified Russian attacks on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
ISW’s January 13 assessment reported that Russian forces launched a series of attacks on and around Kostyantynivka, including north‑of‑town positions and several nearby villages. The report highlighted a noticeable uptick in Russian offensive activity, which pushed the market’s “December 31 2026” probability up to 94 % that Russia would capture the city by year‑end.
Ukrainian forces counterattack in central Mayske near Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 69%7%
Ukrainian troops raised their flag in central Mayske, indicating successful counterattacks and retention of key positions near Kostyantynivka, tempering short-term capture expectations.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Footage published on January 12 indicated recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting incremental progress in the contested city. This development likely reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian missile and drone strike hits Kyiv ahead of US‑Ukrainian talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
A coordinated Russian attack on Kyiv using missiles and drones on Jan 12 caused civilian casualties and disrupted the city’s power grid, signaling that Russia was intensifying pressure just before high‑level peace negotiations, which lowered confidence in a rapid settlement and reduced the capture probability.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka with new Western arms deliveries to Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
In early January 2026, Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, while Ukraine received new Western military equipment including Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles and advanced UK missiles. This dynamic contributed to market price stability near 94%.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
On January 12, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalemate that tempered market expectations.
Russia Sets Full Seizure of Ukraine's Donetsk Region as Top 2026 War Priority
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Reports emerged that Russia made the capture of the entire Donetsk region, specifically focusing on the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area, its top battlefield priority for 2026.
Russian forces advance into southeastern Kostyantynivka
On January 12, geolocated footage indicated Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka, marking a tactical gain that increased market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka with contested control zones
On January 12, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, with contested 'gray zones' reported. This indicated ongoing heavy fighting but no decisive Russian control, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price peak.
Military Analysis Highlights Slow Pace of Urban Combat in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
An analysis of the frontlines indicated that while intense urban combat continued, a complete capture of Kostyantynivka remained distant, tempering immediate expectations of a rapid fall.
Russian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka While Ukrainians Raise Flag in Mayske
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian forces successfully reclaimed positions and raised their flag in central Mayske, north of the city.
Russian attacks kill one and wound dozens ahead of Abu Dhabi peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
A wave of Russian drone and missile strikes hit Kyiv and Kharkiv just before the second day of U.S.–Russia–Ukraine negotiations in Abu Dhabi, prompting fears of renewed offensives and lowering confidence in a rapid Russian advance toward Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
On January 12, Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating a stalemate that tempered expectations for rapid capture.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka with no confirmed advances
On January 11-12, Russian forces launched attacks in and around Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, with contested zones reported but no confirmed territorial gains, indicating ongoing fighting without decisive Russian capture.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue fighting near Kostyantynivka with contested zones
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 12, 2026, fighting persisted near Kostyantynivka with contested areas reported, indicating ongoing conflict without decisive Russian capture. This sustained combat contributed to market confidence in eventual Russian control by year-end but reflected slow progress.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Mayske While Russian Forces Push into Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed localized advances by both sides, with Ukrainian forces raising a flag in Mayske and Russian forces advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka, keeping the market highly active.
Ukrainian Forces Raise Flag in Mayske as Russian Forces Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces reclaiming positions in Mayske, north of Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces made minor advances in the southeastern outskirts of the city.
Russian forces maintain attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid contested zones
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 12, 2026, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, with contested 'gray zones' reported in surrounding areas. Despite no confirmed advances, ongoing pressure and tactical operations sustained market confidence near 93%.
Russia prioritizes full capture of Donetsk region including Kostyantynivka as 2026 war goal
On January 12, 2026, reports confirmed Russia's top 2026 priority is full seizure of Donetsk region, focusing on Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area. This strategic emphasis reinforced market expectations of eventual capture by year-end 2026, sustaining the high probability near 94%.
Russia intensifies drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
On January 12, 2026, Russia launched a massive strike involving hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, aiming to weaken civilian morale during ongoing U.S.-brokered peace talks. This military escalation underscored Russia's commitment to its war aims despite diplomatic efforts, causing a temporary dip in market confidence for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
On January 11 and 12, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, with contested zones reported. Despite intense fighting, no confirmed territorial gains were made, contributing to market uncertainty and slight price fluctuations.
Germany to deliver Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine early 2026
On January 12, Rheinmetall announced Ukraine would receive five Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles from a December 2025 contract early in 2026. This Western military support likely tempered market optimism about rapid Russian capture, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. set for Abu Dhabi
A new round of U.S.-brokered peace talks was scheduled for early February in Abu Dhabi, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war. This raised hopes for a negotiated settlement, supporting the market's high probability for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify strikes in eastern Kostyantynivka amid infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 12, Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka and conducted infiltration missions, but these did not result in significant territorial gains. This sustained pressure without decisive success likely contributed to the market's slight price decline from 94% to 93%.
Russian forces maintain pressure with attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area with drone and artillery strikes but without confirmed advances, sustaining market confidence in a likely eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces maintain pressure on Kostyantynivka with continued attacks
On January 10 and 11, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, continuing to use drone strikes and infantry assaults. These ongoing operations reinforced market confidence in Russian capture by year-end 2026, sustaining the high price level.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Kostyantynivka with drone support
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
Russian troops attacked multiple directions around Kostyantynivka, supported by drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions, maintaining pressure but without confirmed advances. Market prices peaked at 95%, reflecting increased confidence in eventual capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks and advance near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
Geolocated videos confirmed Ukrainian advances on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and Russian forces losing positions east and within the city, signaling effective Ukrainian defense and reducing the likelihood of a quick Russian capture.
Ukrainian Forces Counterattack and Advance on Southern Outskirts of Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully pushed Russian units out of certain positions on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and counterattacked near Minkivka, checking Russian momentum.
ISW projects Russian seizure of Donetsk Fortress Belt, including Kostyantynivka, by August 2027
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed in late November 2025 that Russian forces would only finalize the seizure of Donetsk Oblast's Fortress Belt, including Kostyantynivka, by August 2027, indicating a slow campaign. This tempered expectations for rapid capture but did not reduce market confidence in eventual Russian control by end of 2026.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area with intensified drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Reports detailed Russian advances and drone operations around Kostyantynivka, including attacks within the city and surrounding areas, indicating increased Russian operational control and pressure. This reinforced market expectations of Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
On January 10-11, Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and ground assaults in multiple directions, signaling a strong offensive push. This heightened expectations of eventual Russian capture, supporting a high market price.
Continued Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery support
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
On January 10-11, Russian forces maintained attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, employing drone operators and artillery units to strike Ukrainian positions. This ongoing offensive activity reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026, with prices near 94-95%.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid contested zones
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 11-12, Russian forces attacked multiple directions around Kostyantynivka, with milbloggers describing contested 'gray zones.' This ongoing fighting reinforced market expectations of a protracted battle with eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Russian forces launched attacks in and around Kostyantynivka, including near key surrounding villages, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This ongoing combat activity reinforced market expectations of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Further Russian Advances in Eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Visual evidence published on January 10 confirmed that Russian forces made additional tactical advances in eastern Kostyantynivka, pushing the market price to its period high of 94%.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian drone strikes
On January 10-11, Russian forces maintained attacks near and within Kostyantynivka while Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, reflecting ongoing intense combat and sustaining high market confidence near 93%.
Russian forces intensify infiltration efforts near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
On January 11, Russian forces increased infiltration attempts and attacks near Kostyantynivka, but failed to make significant advances. This sustained pressure kept market confidence high but did not improve odds of capture, maintaining the price around 94%.
Russian forces attack within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas in early January
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian forces launched attacks in and around Kostyantynivka, including drone operations targeting Ukrainian positions, demonstrating continued offensive efforts. This helped push market prices to a peak of 93-94%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, including attempts to infiltrate and seize surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian forces held their positions, preventing any significant territorial gains. This maintained the market's high but slightly wavering confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Assault Units Free Novomarkhivka in the Kostyantynivka Direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Russian forces captured the settlement of Novomarkhivka and repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Ivanopil, maintaining offensive momentum toward Kostyantynivka.
Russia orders Euroclear to pay compensation to its central bank over seized assets
December 31, 2026 dips to 94%1%
A Moscow court ruled in favor of the Russian Central Bank in its lawsuit against Euroclear, seeking 18.2 trillion rubles ($249.7 billion) in damages. The EU froze Russian assets worth 210 billion euros as part of sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka with tactical groups aiming to seize city halves
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
On January 10, reports indicated that Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked with capturing the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka respectively, signaling a coordinated effort to complete the city's seizure. This heightened offensive likely contributed to the market price rising to a peak of 95% on January 9, reflecting increased confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Geolocated footage shows recent Russian advances in eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 10, geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces had recently advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting incremental territorial gains. This likely contributed to sustained market confidence in Russia capturing the town by the end of 2026.
Russian Forces Advance in Eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces made incremental advances in eastern Kostyantynivka, driving market confidence to a peak of 94% as the offensive intensified.
Russian forces push deeper into Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
By January 9, 2026, Russian forces reportedly advanced deeper into Kostyantynivka, increasing market confidence to 95%. This reflected perceived progress in the offensive, though no full capture was confirmed.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka with incremental gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Geolocated footage on January 8-9 showed Russian forces advancing in areas northeast and east of Kostyantynivka, including western Novomarkove and northwest of Stupochky, indicating ongoing Russian pressure but no decisive capture. Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions east of Kostyantynivka, maintaining contested control.
Russian forces make limited advances near Kostyantynivka amid contested control
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
Geolocated footage on January 8-9 showed Russian forces advancing in areas northeast and east of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces struck back, and infiltration missions did not change frontline control. Russian military claims of seizing nearby towns were contradicted by evidence, indicating contested control and limited progress, which likely tempered market optimism.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka with drone strikes and infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian units, including drone operators, conducted strikes and infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka, aiming to outflank and isolate the city. These operations raised market optimism about Russian advances, reflected in a price peak at 94-95%.
U.S. diplomatic push for Ukraine peace deal makes progress at Paris meeting
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%1%
Leaders from 27 European countries and Canada, plus U.S. representatives, discussed defense guarantees for Ukraine if a peace deal is reached. The 15th 'coalition of the willing' meeting included U.S. envoys in person for the first time.
Russian Forces Advance in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka Tactical Area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces made tactical advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, pushing the market price to its peak of 94% YES.
Russia launches large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
Russia conducted a massive overnight attack with hundreds of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure and cities, killing civilians and undermining diplomatic efforts. This aggressive military action dampened market optimism about a quick resolution, causing a price drop after a brief peak.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions east of Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%2%
On January 9, Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions east of Kostyantynivka during infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating ongoing but limited Russian offensive activity without significant progress. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Russian Forces Advance Northeast, East, and Southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances in western Novomarkove, northwest of Stupochky, and northwest of Ivanopillya, pushing the market to its peak of 94-95% Yes.
Russian forces attempt wide encirclement of Kostyantynivka amid contested advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 9, reports indicated Russian Armed Forces were trying to encircle Kostyantynivka broadly, with attacks north of Yablunivka and from north of Chasiv Yar aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Despite these efforts, claims of success in nearby areas were considered exaggerated, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and limited Russian territorial gains. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price dip.
Russian drone strikes and attacks continue near Kostyantynivka amid increased drone range
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On January 7-8, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, with drone operators striking Ukrainian positions and attempting to interdict ground lines of communication. The increased drone range complicated Ukrainian movements, sustaining pressure but without decisive capture, contributing to market price recovery.
Russia Sets Full Capture of Donetsk Region as Top 2026 Battlefield Priority
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Reports emerged that Russia has prioritized the full capture of Donetsk region, focusing heavily on the Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka area, with an unrealistic target date of April 1, 2026.
Russian Drone Ranges Increase Near Kostyantynivka, Threatening Ukrainian Supply Lines
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that significantly increased Russian drone ranges were making travel into Kostyantynivka difficult, though poor weather temporarily hindered operations.
Russian drone operations intensify, complicating Ukrainian movements into Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 7-8, Russian forces continued attacks near Kostyantynivka and increased drone range capabilities, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to travel into Kostyantynivka. This sustained pressure and technological adaptation reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces infiltrate eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 8, Russian troops infiltrated the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and continued offensive operations in the tactical area, though no confirmed advances were made. The sustained pressure and infiltration attempts reinforced market expectations of a likely Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces conduct widespread attacks around Kostyantynivka amid increased drone operations
On January 7-8, 2026, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka, including within the town, supported by expanded drone ranges that complicated Ukrainian movements. This sustained pressure reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, Ukraine blamed
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
A car bomb killed Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, a senior Russian military officer, in Moscow. Russian authorities blamed Ukrainian intelligence for the assassination, reflecting ongoing covert conflict and pressure on Russian military leadership. This event underscored the intensity of the conflict and may have influenced market perceptions of the war's progression.
Russian drone and artillery strikes intensify near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian forces increased drone and artillery operations targeting Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka, complicating Ukrainian defense and reinforcing market expectations of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russia attempts to replicate Pokrovsk campaign design for Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Military reports highlighted that Russian forces are attempting to replicate their Pokrovsk strategy for the offensive on Kostyantynivka, prioritizing attacks on Ukrainian drone operators and increasing drone flight ranges to restrict Ukrainian access.
Russian Forces Increase Drone Range and Infiltrate Eastern Outskirts of Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian drone ranges significantly increased, making defense more difficult, while Russian forces continued offensive operations and infiltrated the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka.
Russian drone operations intensify near Kostyantynivka, complicating Ukrainian movements
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian forces increased drone strikes and artillery attacks around Kostyantynivka, extending drone ranges and attempting to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines. This escalation raised concerns about Russian operational capabilities, contributing to a price increase to 94%.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid increased drone use
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 7 and 8, Russian forces attacked multiple positions in and around Kostyantynivka, supported by expanded drone operations that complicated Ukrainian defense. This sustained offensive activity reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian drone range complicating operations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 8, 2026, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian drone ranges significantly increased in 2025, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to operate in Kostyantynivka. This technological advantage likely supported Russian offensive efforts, contributing to a price rise to 94%.
Russian drone capabilities increase, complicating Ukrainian defense in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported significant increases in Russian drone ranges in 2025, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to operate in Kostyantynivka. This technological edge likely contributed to sustained Russian pressure and market confidence near 94%.
Russian drone operations increase, complicating Ukrainian defense in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported significant increases in Russian drone ranges and interdiction efforts around Kostyantynivka, making Ukrainian movement difficult and indicating sustained Russian pressure. This technological escalation reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue attacks and drone operations near Kostyantynivka
On January 7-8, Russian forces conducted attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with increased drone range complicating Ukrainian movements, reinforcing market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka but fail to secure confirmed advances
On January 7 and 8, 2026, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and infantry assaults. Despite increased drone capabilities and infiltration attempts, no confirmed territorial gains were reported, reflecting ongoing intense combat without decisive capture.
Russian drone operations intensify around Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
By January 8, Russian forces increased drone strikes and artillery attacks near Kostyantynivka, complicating Ukrainian movements and maintaining pressure on the city. Despite unconfirmed claims of territorial gains, fighting remained contested with Ukrainian counterattacks. This persistent conflict and enhanced Russian capabilities supported a higher market probability for eventual capture.
Russian drone strikes intensify near Kostyantynivka despite Ukrainian counterattacks
On January 7 and 8, 2026, Russian forces conducted drone and artillery strikes near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked near some contested locations. Increased Russian drone range complicated Ukrainian movements, sustaining pressure and market belief in eventual Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka and expand drone range
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%6%
The ISW assessment reported that Russian forces attacked widely around Kostyantynivka and that drone ranges had significantly increased, suggesting a new capability to pressure the city. Traders interpreted the expanded drone threat as a sign that a Russian capture could be imminent, pushing the market up toward the December‑31, 2026 option.
Russia plans Kostyantynivka assault following Pokrovsk playbook, ISW says
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
RBC‑Ukraine cited ISW analysis that Russian troops were preparing a new assault on Kostyantynivka modeled after the Pokrovsk campaign and that Ukrainian forces had to double their use of unmanned ground vehicles, signaling a likely upcoming Russian push.
Ukrainian Brigade Reports Increased Range of Russian Drones Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian drone ranges significantly increased, complicating Ukrainian logistics and travel into Kostyantynivka, though poor weather hindered operations.
Russian drone range increases hinder Ukrainian movement into Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 8, 2026, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian drone ranges significantly increased in 2025, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to travel into Kostyantynivka and indicating sustained Russian operational pressure, supporting the market's high probability of capture.
Russian forces claim advances near Kostyantynivka despite Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian milbloggers claimed seizure of nearby Novomarkove and Sofiivka, though Ukrainian counterattacks occurred. Russian drone operations increased, complicating Ukrainian movements. These mixed developments maintained high market confidence in Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian drone range increases complicate Ukrainian defense near Kostyantynivka
On January 7-8, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, infiltrating eastern outskirts but without confirmed advances. Increased Russian drone ranges hindered Ukrainian movement and defense, sustaining pressure and supporting market confidence in eventual Russian capture by end 2026.
Heavy fighting continues in Kostyantynivka with Russian forces attacking multiple directions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Reports from January 7 detailed intense Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces attempting to exploit weather and accumulate forces to pressure nearby areas. Ukrainian defenses held but the persistent pressure supported high market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
In early January 2026, Russian military units reportedly conducted multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, including strikes by specialized regiments and drone operators, indicating sustained offensive efforts that supported the market's peak price near 94%.
Heavy fighting continues near and within Kostyantynivka with Russian drone and artillery strikes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery strikes, though no confirmed advances were made. The ongoing intense combat and Russian operational focus maintained high market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
In early January 2026, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, with reports of advances in eastern Kostyantynivka and nearby areas. These operations sustained market optimism about eventual Russian capture, reflected in a price increase to 94%.
Heavy fighting continues near Kostyantynivka with no confirmed Russian advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Despite intense combat and Russian strikes near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian defenses held firm with no confirmed Russian territorial gains, reflecting ongoing stalemate but sustained Russian offensive efforts. Market prices remained high around 92-94%.
Russian forces launch fresh assaults around Kostiantynivka on Jan 6‑7
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Critical‑Threats reported that Russian units attacked around Kostiantynivka on 6‑7 January, marking the start of a new wave of assaults that lifted market odds that Russia would take the city by the end of 2026. The price of the “December 31 2026” contract rose from 88 % on 23 Jan to 93 % on 5 Feb, reflecting heightened expectations of a successful Russian offensive.
Russian forces sustain attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
On January 7, 2026, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, attacking multiple nearby locations but without confirmed territorial gains. This maintained market confidence at around 93-94%, indicating ongoing fighting but no decisive breakthrough.
Russian forces continue infiltration and attacks near Kostyantynivka amid stalled advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
In early January 2026, Russian forces maintained persistent attacks and infiltration attempts around Kostyantynivka, though without confirmed large-scale territorial gains. The ongoing pressure and tactical shifts kept market confidence near its peak at 94%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed territorial gains, indicating strong Ukrainian defense and slowing Russian progress, which tempered market optimism.
Russian general killed by bomb under his car in Moscow; Ukraine may be behind attack
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A car bomb killed Russian Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Operational Training Directorate. Russian investigators are pursuing Ukraine as a possible perpetrator, adding to ongoing tensions.
Russian Forces Infiltrate Eastern Outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian forces conducted infiltration missions on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, signaling direct pressure on the city and driving the market price up.
Russian forces sustain high operational tempo with intense fighting in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Russian forces maintained a high tempo of tactical engagements around Kostyantynivka in early January 2026, reflecting persistent offensive efforts despite Ukrainian resistance, which kept market confidence in a likely Russian capture high.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 6 and 7, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, indicating ongoing pressure but limited progress. This sustained offensive activity likely supported the market's high confidence in eventual capture but uncertainty about timing.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
On January 6 and 7, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. Despite the lack of confirmed territorial gains, the sustained offensive maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Heavy fighting continues around Kostyantynivka with no confirmed Russian gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Despite intense combat and infiltration attempts by Russian forces near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian defenses held firm with no confirmed territorial gains by Russia, reflecting market price fluctuations but maintaining high likelihood of eventual capture.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders to consolidate European support amid ongoing peace talks and military pressure. This diplomatic backing bolstered market optimism about Ukraine’s resilience but also acknowledged the likelihood of territorial concessions, influencing the market price to remain high.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Kostyantynivka with mechanized and drone strikes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
In early January 2026, Russian Chechen and motorized rifle regiments continued striking Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, using FPV drones and small group infiltration missions despite winter conditions. This sustained pressure supported a market price rise to 94%, reflecting ongoing Russian efforts but no decisive capture yet.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 7 and 8, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka itself and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, reflecting ongoing fighting without decisive territorial gains. This maintained market confidence in eventual capture, keeping prices near 94%.
Trump's peace envoy Witkoff meets Ukrainian leaders in Berlin for talks
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff held in-depth discussions with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin's representatives, signaling active diplomatic engagement.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions on Kostyantynivka outskirts without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On January 7, Russian forces were observed operating on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka in infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, indicating ongoing pressure but no decisive capture. This maintained market confidence in eventual capture but reflected the contested nature of the battle.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
On January 7, Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian reports indicated ongoing Russian attacks but no territorial gains, sustaining market uncertainty about the likelihood of a near-term Russian capture.
Russian drone strikes and infiltration continue around Kostyantynivka amid poor weather
On January 5 and 6, 2026, Russian drone operators and small infantry groups continued offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, exploiting poor weather conditions to degrade Ukrainian drone effectiveness. Despite ongoing attacks, no confirmed advances were made, reflecting a stalemate that maintained market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and small group assaults near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 6, Russian forces operated in small infantry groups to infiltrate and bypass Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, exploiting unfavorable weather and using heavy bomber drones for logistics, but did not make confirmed advances. This indicated ongoing pressure but limited progress, slightly reducing confidence in a quick Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
On January 5 and 6, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, employing small infantry groups and drone strikes but did not make confirmed territorial gains. This maintained pressure but indicated slow progress, consistent with market stability at high probability.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
On January 6, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka itself and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. The continued pressure and persistent attacks contributed to sustained market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian attacks on Ukraine kill one and wound dozens ahead of Abu Dhabi peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
A wave of Russian missile and drone strikes killed civilians just before the second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, reviving fears that Russia would continue offensive operations and lowering the probability of a December‑31 capture.
Russian forces use drones and infiltration tactics in Kostyantynivka area
On January 6, Russian forces employed drone operators and small infantry groups to infiltrate and bypass Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka, exploiting poor weather and night conditions to avoid detection. This tactical adaptation indicated persistent Russian efforts to gain ground, reinforcing market expectations of capture by year-end.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions in southern Kostyantynivka amid infiltration attempts
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 6, 2026, Russian forces conducted strikes and infiltration operations in and around Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and small infantry group maneuvers exploiting weather conditions. Despite these efforts, no confirmed advances were made, sustaining pressure on the city and supporting the market's positive outlook.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans for further advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
On January 6, 2026, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov detailed plans to accelerate offensive operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, signaling Moscow's intent to consolidate and expand territorial control. This military posture reinforced market expectations of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian forces continue infiltration and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka amid harsh winter
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
By early January 2026, Russian forces were conducting small group infiltration missions using snow suits and heavy drone strikes to disrupt Ukrainian communications around Kostyantynivka. Despite these tactics, Ukrainian forces held key positions, indicating slow progress and ongoing contested control, supporting the market's steady high probability for eventual capture.
Russian forces maintain offensive near Kostyantynivka with no confirmed major advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
In early January 2026, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed significant territorial gains. Despite this, the market price rose to 94%, reflecting sustained belief in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces use small infantry groups and heavy drones to infiltrate near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 6, Russian troops reportedly operated in small infantry groups to infiltrate and bypass Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, employing heavy bomber drones for logistics and reconnaissance. This tactical adaptation under difficult weather conditions suggested persistent Russian efforts to gain ground, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 6, Russian troops operated in small infantry groups using drones and anti-thermal cloaks to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka. Despite ongoing offensive operations, no confirmed territorial gains were reported, stabilizing market prices near 94%.
Russian forces intensify strikes near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian units, including motorized rifle brigades and Chechen regiments, conducted strikes on Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka, adapting tactics to winter conditions. This contributed to a price increase from 92% to 94%, reflecting renewed market confidence in Russian offensive efforts.
Ukrainian brigade says Russian attacks continue around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported ongoing Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka but no decisive breakthroughs, sustaining the high probability that Russia would capture the city within the 2026 horizon, keeping the market at roughly 94 % after the January 5 spike.
Russian Forces Focus Infiltration Efforts on Southeastern and Eastern Outskirts of Kostyantynivka
Military observers reported that Russian forces concentrated their efforts on eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions to establish forward positions.
Russian forces focus on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing battles
On January 4-5, Russian forces concentrated efforts on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions and attempting to increase presence. This sustained offensive activity supported the market's peak price near 95%.
Russian forces intensify infiltration and assault operations in southeastern Kostyantynivka
On January 5, Russian forces focused efforts on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions and attempting to increase their presence, which reinforced market expectations of a gradual Russian advance.
Russian forces intensify assault operations in and around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
By early January 2026, Russian forces focused on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions and intensifying assaults despite Ukrainian resistance, pushing market prices to above 93%.
Russian command amasses forces near Kostyantynivka with multiple combined arms armies
By January 5, Russian forces concentrated elements of three combined arms armies near Kostyantynivka, indicating preparation for intensified operations. This buildup likely reinforced market expectations of eventual capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces intensify assaults exploiting poor weather near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 5, Russian forces reportedly intensified assault operations near Kostyantynivka, attempting to exploit poor weather conditions to advance. This renewed offensive activity corresponded with a price increase from 89% to 94%, reflecting heightened market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russia conducted a massive strike on Ukrainian energy targets, reinforcing its military pressure on Ukraine despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, which pushed the market to its highest point.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
Critical Threats reported renewed Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area. The news coincided with a sharp price climb from 92 % (Jan 2) to a peak of 95 % (Jan 9), reflecting heightened confidence the city would fall before the end of the year.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka, focusing on southeastern outskirts
On January 4 and 5, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and its surrounding villages, focusing efforts on infiltration missions in the southeastern outskirts and attempting to amass infantry for forward assaults south and southwest of the city. This sustained pressure supported the market's rising confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces focus efforts on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka
On January 5, Ukrainian analyst Mashovets reported Russian forces concentrating infantry in forward assault groups south and southwest of Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions and attempting to reach strategic lines, indicating sustained offensive pressure that influenced market confidence.
Russian forces claim full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 5, 2026, Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov reported that Russian troops had taken full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk, signaling continued Russian territorial gains in the region. This military development increased market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian forces focus on infiltration and infantry buildup south and southeast of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
By January 5, Russian forces concentrated on assembling infantry assault groups south and southwest of Kostyantynivka and conducted infiltration missions in the southeastern outskirts, signaling preparation for intensified offensive operations. This contributed to a price increase to 93%.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 4 and 5, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near and within Kostyantynivka, focusing on southeastern and eastern outskirts with infiltration missions and infantry amassing for assaults. This escalation likely boosted market confidence, pushing the price higher toward 94%.
Russian forces focus assaults on southeastern and eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 4-5, Russian forces concentrated infantry in forward assault groups south and southwest of Kostyantynivka, attempting infiltration missions and aiming to reach the Stepanivka-Berestok line, signaling intensified efforts to capture the city.
Russian forces focus infiltration and infantry assaults near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Reports on January 4 and 5 indicated Russian forces concentrating infantry in forward assault groups south and southwest of Kostyantynivka, conducting infiltration missions and attempting to increase presence in the area. This tactical focus suggested sustained efforts to capture the town.
Russian drone attacks continue amid peace talks, killing civilians in Ukraine
Despite ongoing peace negotiations, Russia launched drone attacks killing civilians and damaging infrastructure in Ukraine, highlighting the persistent conflict and complicating peace efforts. This ongoing violence maintained market uncertainty but did not significantly reduce confidence in Russian territorial gains by year-end.
U.S. Coast Guard seizes Russian‑flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The seizure of the Marinera, a vessel tied to Russia’s shadow fleet, signaled escalating U.S. pressure on Russian logistics. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign that Russia’s supply lines were being strained, potentially accelerating its push for quick territorial gains in Ukraine, including Kostyantynivka.
Russian drone capabilities increase, complicating Ukrainian defense near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported significant increases in Russian drone ranges in 2025, making Ukrainian movement into Kostyantynivka more difficult and indicating ongoing Russian efforts to interdict Ukrainian supply lines. This technological edge likely contributed to the market price rising to 94%.
Russian Forces Advance Near Yablunivka and Amass Troops in Kostyantynivka Direction
Russian forces made confirmed advances southwest of Kostyantynivka along the H-20 highway, while amassing elements of three combined arms armies to intensify pressure on the city.
Russian forces continue strikes and limited advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage from January 4 showed recent Russian advances along key highways near Kostyantynivka, with continued strikes by multiple Russian motorized rifle brigades. Ukrainian forces also maintained positions nearby. This sustained pressure contributed to the market price reaching a high of 94% by early January 2026.
Russian forces consolidate positions near Kostyantynivka with ongoing small group infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
By January 4, Russian troops continued to consolidate gains on the outskirts of Kostyantynivka using small group infiltration and winter camouflage, leading to a market price rise to 94% reflecting increased confidence in eventual capture.
Market price jumps to 94% amid intensified Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
By January 4, 2026, the market price for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, rose sharply to 94%, reflecting intensified Russian offensive operations and persistent attacks in the area, despite Ukrainian counterattacks and limited confirmed territorial gains.
Russian forces advance along H-20 highway northeast of Yablunivka near Kostyantynivka
On January 4, Russian forces advanced along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway northeast of Yablunivka, indicating continued pressure on Ukrainian defenses and supporting the market's sustained confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces advance along Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Geolocated footage published on January 4 showed Russian forces recently advancing along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway northeast of Yablunivka, indicating continued pressure on Kostyantynivka's outskirts. This sustained offensive supported the market's upward price movement to 94%.
Russian forces continue small group infiltration tactics near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian troops employed small group infiltration and camouflage tactics in winter conditions to press attacks near Kostyantynivka, maintaining pressure and supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Market price spikes to 94% amid renewed Russian offensive claims
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 4, 2026, the market price for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, rose sharply to 94%, reflecting renewed optimism from reports of intensified Russian attacks and ongoing efforts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area despite Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces continue offensive and infiltrate eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 3-4, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and infiltrated its eastern outskirts, though no confirmed advances were made. This persistent pressure and limited gains contributed to a market price rise to 94-95%.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy for talks on peace deal and security guarantees
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 4, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort for talks on ending the war and security guarantees. The meeting underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complexity of negotiations, supporting the market's high probability of Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by year-end.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka with unconfirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 4, 2026, Russian forces maintained attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with milbloggers claiming some advances though not independently confirmed. The market price rose further to 94%, reflecting sustained pressure and perceived incremental progress by Russian forces.
Russian forces intensify assaults and infiltration near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian troops adapted tactics using snow camouflage and sleeper drones for infiltration missions, increasing operational pressure around Kostyantynivka, contributing to a market price rise to 94% for capture by end 2026.
Russian forces continue infiltration and small group assaults near Kostyantynivka despite Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Reports from early January describe ongoing Russian infiltration missions and small group assaults around Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces attempting to consolidate positions but facing strong Ukrainian defense, supporting the market's slight price rise.
Russian Special Forces 'Okhotnik' active in battle for Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 4, reports emerged of Russian Special Forces 'Okhotnik' destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the battle for Kostyantynivka, indicating continued intense fighting and Russian tactical efforts to advance. This sustained combat activity supported the market's steady confidence in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 4, Russian forces maintained offensive operations near and within Kostyantynivka, attacking multiple nearby settlements. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces held positions and counterattacked in some areas, reflecting a stalemate that tempered market expectations but maintained a high probability of eventual Russian capture.
Russian Forces Advance Southwest of Kostyantynivka Along H-20 Highway
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway northeast of Yablunivka, signaling increased pressure on the city's southern flank.
Russian forces continue attacks and advances in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
On January 3 and 4, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and its surroundings, with elements of multiple Russian brigades striking Ukrainian positions. These ongoing offensives reinforced expectations of eventual Russian capture, sustaining high market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian Forces Advance Along Highway Southwest of Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian tactical advances along the H-20 highway near Yablunivka, further threatening Ukrainian ground lines of communication.
Geolocated footage shows recent Russian advances near Kostyantynivka highway
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On January 4, 2026, footage indicated Russian advances along the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway, suggesting incremental territorial gains. However, Ukrainian forces remained active nearby, reflecting ongoing contested control and supporting market confidence in eventual capture but not imminent fall.
Geolocated footage confirms Russian advances along Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
On January 4, geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka highway northeast of Yablunivka, indicating continued pressure on Ukrainian defenses and incremental territorial gains near Kostyantynivka. This contributed to a market price increase reflecting higher likelihood of capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces make marginal advances near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage showed recent Russian advances along key highways near Kostyantynivka, with continued fighting and attempts to consolidate positions, reflecting persistent but limited progress.
Ukrainian forces advance near Pokrovsk as Russian gains near Kostyantynivka continue
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 4, reports indicated Ukrainian advances near Pokrovsk while Russian forces maintained recent advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. This ongoing dynamic suggested a contested but gradually shifting front, supporting a slight increase in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Zelensky Reports Massive Russian Aerial and Drone Campaign
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
President Zelensky reported that Russia launched over 1,000 guided aerial bombs and strike drones in a single week, highlighting the intense pressure on Ukrainian defenses as the market rose to 94%.
Ukrainian President reports heavy Russian aerial and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 4, Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that Russian forces launched over 1,000 guided aerial bombs and nearly 1,000 strike drones in the week ending January 4, including attacks near Kostyantynivka. This sustained pressure suggested continued Russian commitment to capturing the city, supporting market confidence in eventual capture by year-end 2026.
Russia Sets Full Seizure of Donetsk Region as Top 2026 War Priority
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Reports emerged that Russia has officially designated the complete capture of the Donetsk region, specifically focusing on the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area, as its primary battlefield priority for 2026.
Ukrainian forces refute Russian fake about Kostyantynivka capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The 19th Army Corps and 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade released video debunking Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, showing Ukrainian troops moving freely through the city.
Russian forces resume offensive near Kostyantynivka with increased drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 3, Russian forces intensified attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, supported by drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions, leading to a market price jump from 90% to 94% for capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces make tactical advances near Kostyantynivka, boosting market confidence
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Between January 1 and 3, 2026, Russian forces continued attacks near Kostyantynivka, with confirmed advances and increased drone strikes disrupting Ukrainian defenses. This led to a sharp market price increase from 90% to 94% for capture by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened expectations of Russian success.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka, signaling potential progress
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 3, 2026, reports indicated increased Russian offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and small group infiltration tactics despite adverse weather. This heightened military activity likely boosted market confidence in Russia's eventual capture of the town by December 31, 2026, reflected in the price jump from 90% to 94%.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans for accelerated offensive
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Defense Minister Belousov announced plans to accelerate the tempo of the offensive in Donetsk, directly impacting the likelihood of further territorial captures.
Russia claims capture of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole ahead of peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Kremlin‑released video announced Russian forces had taken full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia, reinforcing beliefs that Russia could secure additional towns before the December deadline.
Ukraine and Russia peace talks in Abu Dhabi continue amid prisoner exchange
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 3, 2026, peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. resumed in Abu Dhabi, accompanied by a prisoner exchange. This diplomatic progress increased market confidence in a negotiated settlement, indirectly supporting the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian forces conduct drone strikes in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian Aerospace Forces conducted glide bomb strikes against Kostyantynivka, targeting Ukrainian positions and disrupting logistics operations in the area.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations in and around Kostyantynivka, employing winter camouflage and drones to interdict Ukrainian lines, indicating persistent offensive efforts. This maintained market confidence at 94% for capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces make notable advances near Kostyantynivka, market price jumps to 94%
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
By early January, Russian forces continued attacks near Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery strikes, and reports indicated incremental advances. This led to a sharp market price increase from 89% on January 1 to 94% on January 3, reflecting increased confidence in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
ISW reports marginal Russian advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage showed minor Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and Ukrainian advances southwest of the city, with continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions, supporting a slight increase in market confidence for eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify strikes and offensive operations near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 3, 2026, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, with drone and artillery strikes reported near Kostyantynivka, indicating sustained pressure on Ukrainian defenses and contributing to increased market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Allied Security Advisers Convene in Kyiv to Discuss 20-Point Peace Plan
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
National security advisers from allied nations met in Kyiv to coordinate security guarantees and discuss a 20-point peace proposal, signaling intensified diplomatic efforts that could impact the war's timeline.
Russian forces break through to southeastern Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military observer reports on January 1 indicated Russian forces advanced into southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, signaling a tactical breakthrough that increased market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 2 and 3, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, continuing offensive operations but without confirmed large-scale advances. This indicated ongoing pressure and incremental gains, supporting a higher likelihood of eventual capture by year-end.
Russian drone strikes intensify across Ukraine including Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 3-4, 2026, Russian forces launched a large-scale drone strike campaign targeting multiple Ukrainian locations including Kostyantynivka. This demonstrated increased Russian operational activity and pressure, contributing to a sharp market price rise for capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage published on January 3 showed Russian infiltration missions in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied positions, indicating ongoing contested control and active combat, which contributed to the market price increase.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian troops employed snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian lines, increasing operational effectiveness and contributing to market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, including northeast of the city near Minkivka, which was part of a broader offensive effort that was met with Ukrainian resistance.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian phosphorus strike on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Ukraine's 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade reported documenting a Russian phosphorus munitions strike on a residential neighborhood in Kostyantynivka, which was a significant escalation and increased market confidence in Ukraine's resistance.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On January 3, 2026, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating ongoing fighting but limited progress. This contributed to a price increase from 90% to 94% as the market factored in sustained Russian efforts.
Ukrainian Border Guard releases video of Kostyantynivka destruction
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service released haunting footage showing the destruction of Kostyantynivka, which helped counter Russian claims of occupation and increased market confidence in Ukraine's control of the city.
ISW releases Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The Institute for the Study of War released a detailed assessment showing Russian forces made marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, which was quickly countered by Ukrainian resistance, leading to a decrease in market confidence in Russia capturing the city.
Market price jumps as reports highlight progress in U.S.-brokered peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Following reports of substantive and productive discussions in the U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi, the market price for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, rose sharply from 89% to 94%, reflecting increased optimism about the conflict's resolution timeline.
U.S. offers Ukraine a 15‑year security guarantee in peace plan
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The United States announced a long‑term security guarantee for Ukraine, signalling strong Western support and increasing expectations that Russia would face tougher resistance, which lifted the market’s confidence that Kostyantynivka would not fall by December 31.
ISW reports Russian advance in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area on Jan 2
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
The Jan 2 assessment highlighted a Russian advance in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with multiple infiltration missions reported. This reinforced expectations of a Russian push, contributing to the market’s rise to 94 % on Jan 4‑6.
Russian forces infiltrate southeastern Kostyantynivka amid intensified attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%4%
On January 2, 2026, Russian forces were reported to have broken through to southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, with geolocated footage showing recent advances along Pravoberezhna Street. This increased Russian presence contributed to a market price jump from 89% to 93% for capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian troops occupy most of Maiske settlement near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian forces occupied most of the settlement of Maiske by January 2, advancing their control in the northern flank near Kostyantynivka, which contributed to the market's price increase by showing incremental territorial gains.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area with new territorial gains
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage and military assessments published January 2 confirmed recent Russian advances along key streets in southern Kostyantynivka and nearby areas. Ukrainian observers noted Russian attempts to consolidate positions on the southeastern outskirts, indicating progress that likely boosted market confidence.
Russian Forces Advance on Kostyantynivka's Northern Flank and Occupy Most of Maiske
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Russian assault units activated the northern flank of the Kostyantynivka direction, occupying most of Maiske and securing additional strongpoints between Predtechyne and Kostyantynivka.
U.S.-brokered Russia‑Ukraine talks resume in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%7%
After a brief postponement, trilateral negotiations involving the United States, Russia and Ukraine restarted, offering a diplomatic path that temporarily lifted market optimism for a Russian capture by year‑end.
Russian Forces Advance Into Southern and Southeastern Outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage and military observer reports confirmed that Russian forces advanced along Pravoberezhna Street and broke through to Ostrovskoho Street in southeastern Kostyantynivka, signaling direct tactical progress inside the city limits.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid intensified assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Geolocated footage and military observer reports confirmed Russian advances along Pravoberezhna Street and southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, indicating consolidation efforts in the area. This progress increased market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Trump says Ukraine is holding up peace deal, Putin agrees to Moscow's view
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Trump stated Ukraine President Zelenskyy is an obstacle to peace, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed Moscow agrees with this assessment, affecting the market's diplomatic outlook.
Russian Forces Break Through to Southeastern Kostyantynivka and Advance Along Pravoberezhna Street
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Reports confirmed that Russian forces made significant tactical advances, breaking through to southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street and advancing along Pravoberezhna Street, directly threatening the city's defenses.
Putin claims Russian troops are advancing in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
President Putin stated that Russian forces are making progress in the Donetsk region, reinforcing the market's expectation of continued territorial gains.
Russia Sets Full Seizure of Ukraine's Donetsk Region as Top 2026 War Priority
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Reports emerged that Russia made the full capture of the Donetsk region, specifically focusing on the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka area, its top battlefield priority for 2026.
Russian forces intensify push south of Kostyantynivka amid border clashes
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Early January saw increased Russian military activity south of Kostyantynivka, signaling a renewed offensive effort that likely boosted market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance within southern Kostyantynivka, breaking through key streets
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian advances along Pravoberezhna Street and southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, indicating consolidation of positions. This tangible progress increased market confidence, pushing prices to 94%.
Russian forces advance in eastern Minkivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers raising a Russian flag in central Minkivka, northeast of Kostyantynivka, indicating infiltration and consolidation efforts.
Russian forces occupy additional strongpoints near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Russian assault units occupied new strongpoints between Predtechyne and Kostyantynivka, indicating incremental territorial gains. This progress, though limited, supported the market's rising confidence in Russia eventually capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian Forces Advance Along Pravoberezhna Street and Break Into Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Geolocated footage and military observers confirmed that Russian forces advanced along Pravoberezhna Street and broke through to Ostrovskoho Street in southeastern Kostyantynivka.
Russia announces Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missiles entered active service
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russia’s defence ministry confirmed that the Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile system is now operational, signalling a significant upgrade to its strike capability and potentially strengthening its position in Ukraine, which pushed the market’s probability for a December 31, 2026 capture higher.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
On January 2, 2026, Russian forces attacked multiple positions in and around Kostyantynivka, including northeast, east, southeast, south, and southwest sectors, attempting to consolidate gains. This intensified offensive led to a price increase from 89% on January 1 to 92% on January 3 for the December 31, 2026 outcome, signaling increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian Forces Break Into Southeastern Kostyantynivka and Advance on Outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Ukrainian military analyst Konstantyn Mashovets and geolocated footage confirmed that Russian small forward assault groups broke into southeastern Kostyantynivka and advanced along Pravoberezhna and Ostrovskoho streets, signaling direct urban combat.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka, advancing on multiple fronts
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas from December 31 to January 2, making advances into southeastern Kostyantynivka and nearby villages. This demonstrated increased Russian operational momentum, boosting market confidence in a December 31, 2026 capture.
Russian troops break into southeastern Kostyantynivka, attempt consolidation
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
On January 2, Ukrainian military analyst Konstantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces had penetrated the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka and were trying to consolidate positions between Ostrovskogo Street and a local service station, signaling limited but notable Russian progress.
Russian troops capture Oleksandro-Shultyne and advance toward Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 2, Russian forces took control of the village of Oleksandro-Shultyne and continued advancing toward Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This development raised market confidence in Russia's eventual capture of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian troops take control of Oleksandro-Shultyne village near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
On January 2, Russian forces captured Oleksandro-Shultyne and launched multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka, signaling intensified efforts to encircle the city. This limited but notable advance increased market confidence in eventual capture by the end of 2026.
Russia launches massive drone and missile barrage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles into Ukraine overnight, the largest single‑night strike of the year, signalling an escalation that suggested further territorial advances before the year‑end deadline.
Russian forces intensify border clashes south of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
On January 2, 2026, Russian forces increased military pressure south of Kostyantynivka, engaging in border clashes that raised expectations of a potential advance, causing the market price to rise from 89% to 92%.
Sumy Border Clashes Intensify as Russian Push South of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Border clashes intensified near Kostyantynivka, signaling active Russian military pressure in the area, contributing to market uncertainty about the timeline for capture.
Russian forces advance in southern Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Geolocated footage and military observer reports on January 1-2 indicated Russian advances along Pravoberezhna Street and southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with efforts to consolidate positions in Predtechyne and Oleksandro-Shultyne. This demonstrated incremental Russian progress, contributing to rising market confidence.
U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi show constructive progress
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, including ceasefire possibilities and security guarantees. This diplomatic momentum briefly increased confidence in a peaceful resolution, reflected in a price rise.
U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. held in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States took place in Abu Dhabi aiming to find a political solution to the war. The talks were described as substantive and productive, raising hopes for progress in peace negotiations, which briefly increased market confidence in a resolution by the end of 2026.
Russian forces make advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and consolidate positions
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Between December 31 and January 2, Russian forces advanced along Pravoberezhna Street and broke through to southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, consolidating positions in Predtechyne and Oleksandro-Shultyne. These advances increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russia captures Oleksandro‑Shultyne and pushes into southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops took the village of Oleksandro‑Shultyne and advanced toward Kostyantynivka, with DeepState mapping showing Russian forces breaking into the southeastern outskirts of the city. The news reinforced the belief that the railway station could fall before the end of January, keeping the market price near 94‑95 % throughout early January.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka amid leadership changes in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
On January 2, Russian forces maintained attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, with contested areas described as 'gray zones.' Concurrently, Ukraine appointed Kyrylo Budanov as presidential chief of staff, signaling a focus on military intelligence and drone warfare. The ongoing Russian pressure and Ukrainian leadership changes influenced market confidence upward.
Ukrainian military refutes Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka city center
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Ukraine denied Russian assertions of capturing Kostyantynivka's center, indicating ongoing resistance and causing a temporary dip in market confidence before recovery.
Russian forces reportedly break through to southeastern Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military observers reported Russian forces advancing into southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street, indicating incremental territorial gains and consolidation efforts. This progress contributed to a market price rise to 94%.
Russia claims drone strike on Putin residence; Kyiv denies attack
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
Russia reported a long-range drone attack on a residence of President Putin in northwestern Russia, which Kyiv denied. Russia used this incident to justify toughening its negotiating stance, causing market volatility.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka near Ostrovskoho Street
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military observer reports indicated Russian forces broke through to southeastern Kostyantynivka, marking incremental advances that likely influenced the market's price increase in early January.
Russian forces break through to southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military observers confirmed Russian advances into southeastern parts of Kostyantynivka, signaling incremental progress and increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses, boosting market confidence.
Russian forces reportedly advance into southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
Geolocated footage published around January 1 showed Russian forces advancing along Pravoberezhna Street and breaking through to southeastern Kostyantynivka, raising market confidence in eventual capture despite ongoing contested control.
Russian claims of territorial gains near Kostyantynivka disputed by analysts
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Russian General Staff claimed significant territorial gains including over half of Kostyantynivka, but ISW and other analysts found most claims fabricated or exaggerated, undermining confidence in Russian progress and affecting market sentiment negatively.
Market price drops amid Ukrainian refutation of Russian seizure claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
On January 1, 2026, the market price for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka dropped from 92% to 89% after Ukrainian brigade spokesperson refuted Russian claims of seizing Kostyantynivka, reporting ongoing elimination of Russian infiltration groups. This news introduced doubt about imminent Russian control.
Russian drone attacks kill 1, wound 31 in Ukrainian cities ahead of peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
Russian drone attacks killed one person and wounded 31 in Kyiv and Kharkiv, disrupting peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian officials condemned the attacks during a critical diplomatic moment.
Russian Forces Adopt Winter Camouflage and Sleeper Drones for Infiltration Missions Toward Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
A Ukrainian drone battalion chief reported that Russian forces began using snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication, signaling persistent tactical pressure despite winter conditions.
ISW: Russia intensifies offensive toward Kostyantynivka at year‑end
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
The end‑of‑year assessment noted that Russian operations had expanded into the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area and that Russia had begun concrete efforts to seize Kostyantynivka, reinforcing market expectations of a capture before the end of 2026 and keeping the price near the upper 90 % range.
Ukrainian drone chief says Russians adopt snow‑suits and FPV drones around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
A Ukrainian drone battalion chief reported that Russian troops began using snow‑suits and sleeper FPV drones for infiltration missions around Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified small‑unit activity as winter set in. The comment was interpreted as evidence that Russia was preparing a final push before the new year, lifting the market to its peak of 94 % by early January.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery strikes
On December 30-31, Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka, including drone strikes and artillery shelling, indicating sustained offensive efforts. This activity maintained market confidence in a potential eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces conduct widespread attacks around Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian forces attacked multiple positions near and within Kostyantynivka, employing winter camouflage and advanced drone tactics to interdict Ukrainian lines, signaling operational escalation and increasing likelihood of eventual capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
On December 30-31, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near and within Kostyantynivka, employing D-30 howitzers and reconnaissance drones coordinating strikes. Despite intensified operations, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in some areas, sustaining a high level of conflict and contributing to market price fluctuations around 91-94%.
Intensified Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka with use of winter camouflage and drones
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka on December 30-31, employing snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to disrupt Ukrainian lines. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in nearby areas, indicating ongoing fierce resistance and slow Russian advances.
ISW notes fresh Russian assaults and new infiltration tactics near Kostyantynivka on Dec 31
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
ISW’s December‑31 assessment reported fresh Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka and the use of snow‑suits and FPV drones for infiltrations. The heightened Russian activity signaled a possible escalation, pushing the market’s “December 31, 2026” probability up to 92 % on Dec 30‑31 before a sharp drop on Jan 1.
Russian forces conduct winter infiltration missions and artillery strikes near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
At the end of December, Russian troops adapted to winter conditions using snow suits for infiltration and employed drones to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, alongside artillery strikes near Kostyantynivka. These developments reinforced market confidence, pushing prices above 90%.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka with new tactics amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Kostyantynivka and began using snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian lines, indicating adaptation to winter warfare and sustained offensive pressure.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
Russian forces attacked various positions around Kostyantynivka on December 30-31, using snow suits for camouflage and drones to interdict Ukrainian lines, indicating ongoing offensive efforts but limited territorial gains. This maintained high market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian Forces Adopt Snow Camouflage and Sleeper Drones Near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces began using winter snow suits for small-group infiltration missions and deployed sleeper FPV drones to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.
Russian advances near Slovyansk and Siversk bolster offensive momentum
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
In December 2025, Russian forces made advances northeast of Slovyansk and likely seized Siversk, while continuing efforts around Kostyantynivka, reinforcing expectations of a future capture despite ongoing urban combat.
Russian forces intensify offensive near Kostyantynivka with multiple attacks
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages on December 30 and 31, attempting to encircle and seize the city. These operations signaled a sustained Russian focus on the area, influencing market expectations for eventual capture.
Russian artillery and drone strikes intensify near Kostyantynivka
On December 31, Russian forces, including artillery and reconnaissance drones, intensified strikes against Ukrainian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka. This sustained pressure indicated ongoing offensive efforts, supporting market confidence in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces employ winter camouflage and advanced drones in Kostyantynivka assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Russian troops began using snow suits for infiltration missions and sleeper FPV drones to disrupt Ukrainian communications near Kostyantynivka, indicating adaptation to winter conditions and intensification of offensive operations. This technological and tactical escalation reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
ISW reports intensified Russian strikes near Kostyantynivka at year‑end
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
The ISW assessment published on 31 December 2025 detailed a wave of Russian artillery and drone strikes around Kostyantynivka, signalling an intensification of the offensive. Traders interpreted the report as evidence that Russian forces were closing in on the city, pushing the market’s “Yes” probability for a capture by 31 December 2026 up to 94 % by early January.
Russian forces continue attacks and begin using winter camouflage near Kostyantynivka
On December 30-31, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, employing snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to disrupt Ukrainian lines. These tactical adaptations indicated Russian intent to intensify efforts to capture Kostyantynivka, supporting a slight market price increase.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations and begin efforts to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian forces escalated attacks around Kostyantynivka starting in October and intensified efforts by December 31, including infiltration missions and use of drones, indicating a sustained push that increased market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Kostyantynivka, employing new tactics such as snow suits for camouflage and drone interdiction of Ukrainian lines, indicating sustained offensive pressure. This maintained market confidence near 91%.
Russian forces intensify Kostyantynivka attacks with snow‑suit camouflage and FPV drones
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Critical Threats reported intensified Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka, including use of snow‑suits and sleeper FPV drones, indicating a concerted effort to breach defenses before year‑end, which pushed the market price higher.
Russian forces use winter camouflage and drones in infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
By December 31, 2025, Russian forces reportedly began using snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian lines near Kostyantynivka, indicating increased operational capability and persistence in the area. This tactical evolution supported the market's sustained high probability of Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces conduct coordinated artillery and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
On December 30-31, Russian forces launched multiple attacks and used snow suits for camouflage during infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka. They also employed drones to interdict Ukrainian supply lines, indicating tactical adaptation to winter and sustained offensive efforts, which maintained market confidence above 90%.
Russian forces intensify infiltration and attacks near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian troops began using snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones to interdict Ukrainian lines, increasing infiltration missions and attacks around Kostyantynivka. This operational intensification reinforced market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end 2026, with prices rising to around 92-93%.
Russian forces conduct infiltration and small group attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Reports indicated Russian forces using snow suits for camouflage and sleeper FPV drones for interdiction during infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka, showing tactical adaptation and persistent pressure. This maintained market confidence near 91%.
Intensified Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka with limited Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%4%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka on December 30 and 31, including near the city itself and surrounding villages. Russian milbloggers reported Ukrainian counterattacks, indicating ongoing contested fighting. The persistent Russian offensive likely supported market optimism for eventual capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration near Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
Russian troops increased infiltration missions and used winter camouflage, indicating sustained offensive pressure. This contributed to maintaining high market confidence around 90% for capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces begin winter infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka using snow camouflage
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian troops started using snow suits for camouflage during small group infiltration missions toward Kostyantynivka due to winter conditions, indicating continued pressure but limited progress. This maintained market confidence in a delayed capture.
Russia intensifies attacks around Kostyantynivka and employs winter infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%5%
The end‑of‑year Critical Threats assessment (31 Dec 2025) listed extensive Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka and noted the first use of snow‑camouflage infiltration tactics, suggesting a sustained forward push that coincided with the market’s peak near 95 % on 9 Jan 2026.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, 2025
The Critical Threats/ISW daily assessment noted Russian forces attacking north‑south of Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31. The report underscored that Russian troops were still on the offensive but had not yet secured any new ground, keeping market participants confident that a capture by Dec 31 2026 remained likely.
Russian forces intensify offensive efforts to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
By the end of December 2025, Russian forces had been conducting intensified offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, including attacks on multiple nearby settlements and efforts to envelop the city. These operations marked a significant escalation in attempts to capture the city, influencing market confidence in a potential Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces launch new winter attacks near Kostyantynivka, using snow‑suit camouflage
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
The end‑of‑year Critical Threats assessment recorded a fresh wave of Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka, including new infiltration tactics (snow‑suit camouflage) and intensified artillery strikes. This reinforced the market’s belief in a December capture, keeping the price at ~92 % and later rising to 94 % on 3 Jan.
ISW notes intensified Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka on Dec 31
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
ISW’s December‑31 assessment reported that Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City and directly around Kostyantynivka, and noted that Moscow had begun a “new operational template” aimed at seizing the city. The assessment reinforced expectations of a Russian capture before year‑end, driving the price up further.
Russian forces conduct attacks around Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 30-31, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka, using winter camouflage and sleeper drones for infiltration missions. These operations indicated continued Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian defenses, maintaining market confidence around 91-92%.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka with mixed advances and Ukrainian counterattacks
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and nearby areas, while Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks, maintaining contested control. The market price remained stable around 91%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a decisive Russian capture.
ISW report says Russia began push to seize Kostyantynivka, with attacks on 30‑31 Dec 2025
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
The ISW / Critical Threats assessment released on 31 Dec 2025 noted that Russian forces had begun “efforts to seize Kostyantynivka” in October 2025 and described fresh attacks north of the city on 30‑31 Dec. The report raised expectations that Russia might capture the town before the end of 2026, lifting the market’s “Yes” price from 88 % on 30 Nov 2025 to a peak of 94 % on 3 Dec 2025.
Ukrainian 14th Army Corps refutes Russian claims of control in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
On December 30, the Ukrainian 14th Army Corps publicly refuted Russian claims that Russian forces controlled parts of Kostyantynivka, emphasizing ongoing Ukrainian defense and contested fighting. This counterclaim contributed to market uncertainty and tempered overly optimistic price spikes.
Ukrainian forces report heavy Russian artillery bombardment near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%4%
Ukrainian military officials reported intensified Russian artillery fire on the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, raising concerns that Russia was preparing a ground assault on the town.
U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks scheduled for early January amid ongoing conflict
Negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. were planned for early January 2026 in Abu Dhabi, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. These talks, while constructive, faced challenges over territorial disputes, influencing market confidence in the timeline for Russian advances.
Institute for the Study of War reports Ukraine thwarts Russian offensive, capture unlikely by year-end
ISW's assessment highlighted Ukrainian forces successfully blunting the Russian offensive and causing Russia's first net territorial loss since 2024, reducing market confidence in Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026. This led to a moderate decrease in the market's expectation for a near-term capture.
Russian forces attack multiple positions near Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on December 29 and 30, including strikes by specialized drone units. These operations demonstrated ongoing Russian pressure and tactical advances around the city, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian Southern Grouping commander claims 40-45% control of Kostyantynivka
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed significant Russian control of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other assessments but indicating increased Russian operational activity. This claim likely influenced market perceptions of progress toward eventual capture.
Russian commander Medvedev claims 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka seized
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
On 29 Dec 2025 Medvedev told Russian media that Russian forces had seized 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier claims of over‑half control. The heightened claim of near‑half capture coincided with the market’s peak (95 % on 9 Jan) and sustained high levels through the new year.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, threatens retaliation
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, which Ukraine denied as disinformation. This claim led to heightened tensions and threats against Ukrainian leadership, potentially hardening Russia's negotiating stance and impacting perceptions of conflict resolution timelines.
Russian commander says 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka now under Russian control
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%3%
Lt. Gen. Sergei Medvedev announced that Russian forces had seized 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier statements that the town was only partially contested. The claim suggested a rapid advance, pushing the market’s probability that Russia would capture the city by the end of 2026 sharply higher.
Russian commander claims partial control of Kostyantynivka amid conflicting reports
On December 29, Russian Southern Grouping Commander claimed Russian forces seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other claims of over half the city controlled; independent evidence suggested only about 5% control, reflecting overstatements and limited Russian gains.
Russian Commander Contradicts Gerasimov's Claims on Kostyantynivka Control
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces controlled 40 to 45 percent of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Valery Gerasimov's claim of over 50 percent control, while ISW assessed actual presence at only five percent.
Russian Commander Claims Seizure of Up to 45 Percent of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
A Russian commander claimed significant territorial control inside Kostyantynivka, which, despite being assessed as highly exaggerated by independent observers, contributed to the narrative of an imminent Russian breakthrough.
Russian Commanders Contradict Each Other on Extent of Control in Kostyantynivka
Russian Southern Grouping Commander Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized 40 to 45 percent of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Gerasimov's claim of over half, while ISW assessed only a five percent presence.
Russian commander claims partial seizure of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
On December 29, Russian Southern Grouping Commander claimed Russian forces seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments suggest only about 5% control. This claim likely supported market confidence in eventual capture, maintaining high price levels.
Russian forces claim 40-45% control of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
On December 29, Russian Southern Grouping Commander claimed partial control of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other claims and independent assessments that Russian forces controlled only about 5%. This claim indicated intensified Russian efforts but also highlighted contested control, influencing market confidence in eventual capture by end of 2026.
Russian Commander Claims 40 to 45 Percent Control of Kostyantynivka
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized 40 to 45 percent of the city, slightly walking back Gerasimov's earlier claim but still asserting substantial control.
Medvedev says Russia controls almost half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Medvedev claimed Russian forces had seized 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka on 29 Dec 2025, contradicting earlier ISW estimates. The claim suggested a major breakthrough and pushed the market’s “yes” probability sharply upward.
Medvedev says Russia controls 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Medvedev publicly claimed that Russian forces had captured 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier lower estimates. This bold statement convinced traders that a sizeable share of the city was already under Russian control, lifting the "December 31 2026" probability to a peak of about 93 % by early December.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka with multi-directional assaults
On December 28-29, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself and surrounding villages, attempting to advance from multiple directions. Despite these efforts, Russian forces did not make significant advances but increased pressure, signaling a sustained offensive effort that influenced market confidence.
Medvedev claims 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka now under Russian control
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%5%
Medvedev announced that Russian forces had seized 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, far exceeding earlier ISW estimates of about 5 %. The dramatic upgrade in Russian‑controlled territory caused the market to peak at 95 % on 9 Jan 2026, after a brief dip on 1 Dec.
Russian commander claims 40-45% of Kostyantynivka seized amid contested reports
On December 29, Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other assessments showing limited control. This claim likely boosted market optimism despite uncertainty about actual territorial gains.
Russian Southern Group Commander claims 40-45% of Kostyantynivka seized
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
On December 29, Russian Lt. Gen. Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces had seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other claims and independent assessments that Russian control was limited to about 5%. This claim likely influenced market optimism about eventual capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces claim partial control of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander claimed Russian forces seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, contradicting other reports indicating limited control. Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Kostyantynivka, signaling intensified efforts to capture the city. This contributed to a price increase in the market reflecting higher likelihood of eventual capture.
Russian forces claim partial seizure of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
On December 29, 2025, Russian commanders claimed to have seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments indicated much smaller control. The claims and ongoing attacks increased market optimism about eventual Russian capture, despite skepticism about the extent of gains.
Russian Commander Contradicts Gerasimov, Claims 40 to 45 Percent of Kostyantynivka Seized
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized 40 to 45 percent of the city, slightly walking back Gerasimov's higher claim but still asserting substantial control.
Russian Commander Sergei Medvedev Claims 40 to 45 Percent Control of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized 40 to 45 percent of the city, slightly walking back Gerasimov's earlier claim but still asserting substantial control.
Russian forces intensify strikes near Kostyantynivka with drone and artillery attacks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian FPV drone operators and artillery units conducted strikes on Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, signaling increased offensive pressure. This heightened activity contributed to a price increase from 88% to 93% on December 2, reflecting market anticipation of potential Russian gains.
Russian commanders claim control of over half of Kostyantynivka buildings amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces control more than half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka and are advancing toward Slovyansk, though independent assessments suggest limited Russian presence. This claim supported sustained high market prices near 90%.
ISW Reports Russian Forces Control Only Five Percent of Kostyantynivka Despite Exaggerated Claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces only had a presence in five percent of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Russian claims of rapid advances and control over half the city.
Russian forces claim control of over half of Kostyantynivka amid limited evidence
Russian commanders claimed control of more than half the buildings in Kostyantynivka and rapid advances toward Slovyansk, but independent observers noted only about 5% Russian presence, reflecting ongoing contested fighting and resource constraints. This mixed information maintained market confidence but tempered expectations.
Russian Southern Grouping Commander claims Russian forces seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Sergei Medvedev, commander of Russian Southern Grouping of Forces, claimed Russian forces had seized 40-45% of Kostyantynivka, contradicting Gerasimov's earlier claim of over half. This revision likely tempered market optimism.
Gerasimov claims over half of Kostyantynivka controlled by Russian forces
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%7%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed on December 27-28 that Russian forces controlled more than half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka and were rapidly advancing. However, ISW and other sources observed only limited Russian presence, indicating inflated claims aimed at cognitive warfare to pressure Ukraine and its allies.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka in multiple directions
Multiple Russian attacks were reported near Kostyantynivka itself, northeast, east, southeast, and southwest, indicating continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Russian claims of controlling over half of Kostyantynivka buildings amid contested presence
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
By late December, Russian commanders claimed control of more than half the buildings in Kostyantynivka and rapid advances toward Slovyansk, though independent assessments observed only limited Russian presence. This mixed information sustained high market confidence in capture by end of 2026.
Russian General Gerasimov Claims Control of Over Half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces control more than half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments placed actual Russian presence at only five percent.
Russian General Staff Claims Control of Over Half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces controlled more than half of the buildings within Kostyantynivka, driving market confidence to high levels despite independent assessments showing a much smaller Russian presence.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on December 27 and 28, 2025, but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains. This sustained pressure likely maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture but without immediate success.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
On December 26 and 27, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. Despite this, ongoing pressure and drone strikes maintained market confidence near peak levels around 91%.
Russian forces conduct glide bomb strikes and continue attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On December 27, Russian Aerospace Forces conducted glide bomb strikes against Kostyantynivka, and Russian forces continued attacks near and within the city without confirmed advances. Despite no full capture, persistent offensive operations and drone strikes sustained market confidence near its peak.
Gerasimov Claims Russian Forces Control Over Half of Kostyantynivka
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces controlled more than half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka, boosting market confidence despite independent assessments showing only a 5% presence.
Russian General Staff Claims Control of Over Half of Kostyantynivka
Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control more than half of the buildings within Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments estimated actual presence at only five percent.
Russian forces advance in southern Kostyantynivka along key highway
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on December 25 that Russian forces advanced in southern Kostyantynivka along the T-0516 Toretsk-Kostyantynivka highway, conducting frontal assaults with artillery superiority, indicating sustained Russian pressure and contributing to market confidence at high levels.
Russian forces advance in southern Kostyantynivka with mobilization reserves
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian advances in southern Kostyantynivka and reinforcement with mobilization reserve units, indicating intensified Russian efforts and increased likelihood of eventual capture, supporting the market's high price.
Russian FPV Drone Attacks Kill Civilian and Target Evacuation Missions in Kostiantynivka
Russian forces intensified drone strikes directly targeting civilians and evacuation vehicles inside Kostiantynivka, signaling a dangerous escalation in the immediate vicinity of the city.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
On December 23-24, Russian forces launched attacks near and inside Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, maintaining offensive pressure and signaling continued efforts to capture the city, supporting the market's high probability of eventual Russian control.
Russian forces face difficulties in southern Kostyantynivka attacks, Ukrainian defense holds
On December 23-24, Russian milbloggers acknowledged challenges in southern Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces maintaining strong defense. Russian forces' inability to control unmanned ground vehicles at long distances forced risky escort missions, indicating operational difficulties that tempered market enthusiasm.
Russian forces continue assaults near Kostyantynivka with limited advances
Russian troops conducted small group infiltration and mechanized assaults around Kostyantynivka, exploiting weather conditions but failing to secure significant new territory, indicating persistent but slow offensive efforts.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka and advance southeast
On December 22-23, Russian forces launched mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, reportedly advancing southeast and seizing nearby settlements, signaling intensified efforts to encircle the city. This increased operational activity contributed to market confidence in Russia's eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka amid tactical challenges
Russian troops maintained pressure with attacks near and within Kostyantynivka, employing small group infiltration tactics despite logistical difficulties, indicating ongoing but limited progress in the area.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka amid operational difficulties
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On December 23-24, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka but faced operational challenges and limited success, with Ukrainian forces maintaining resistance. Despite difficulties, persistent Russian offensives kept market prices elevated around 90-91%.
Russian mechanized assaults and drone strikes near Kostyantynivka reported
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 22-23, Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults and large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka, with some advances such as likely seizure of Oleksandro-Shultyne. This sustained offensive activity supported market confidence in Russian progress, maintaining prices near 90-92%.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka with reported advances
Russian forces launched attacks near Kostyantynivka and its environs, with claims of advances and seizure of nearby villages. Despite Ukrainian counterattacks, the sustained pressure and territorial gains supported the market's high confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka, seizing Oleksandro-Shultyne
On December 22, Russian forces launched a reduced-platoon mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing Oleksandro-Shultyne despite Ukrainian destruction of some Russian vehicles. This indicated ongoing Russian pressure in the area, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka with limited gains
Russian forces launched reduced-platoon mechanized assaults southeast and south of Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing nearby Oleksandro-Shultyne but facing Ukrainian resistance destroying some vehicles. These limited advances contributed to steady market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian mechanized assaults reported near Kostyantynivka with mixed results
Russian forces conducted reduced-platoon mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly destroying some Russian vehicles, indicating ongoing contested fighting and limited Russian gains.
Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka repelled by Ukrainian forces
June 30, 2026 jumps to 73%12%
Russian forces conducted a reduced-platoon mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka but suffered losses including destroyed tanks and vehicles, indicating stiff Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian advances.
Russian drones expand strike range near Kostyantynivka, increasing threat to Ukrainian positions
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Ukrainian sources reported on December 23 that Russian Gerbera, Lancet, Molniya, and Geran drones can now strike targets within 30 kilometers, expanding the kill zone from 15 to 30 kilometers. This enhanced drone capability increased Russian operational pressure around Kostyantynivka, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka with limited gains
On December 22, Russian forces conducted a reduced-platoon mechanized assault from multiple directions southeast of Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing Oleksandro-Shultyne. Ukrainian forces destroyed some Russian vehicles, indicating contested progress.
Russian forces attack near Kostyantynivka and seize nearby settlements amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and reportedly seized Oleksandro-Shultyne and Pleshchiivka, demonstrating continued offensive momentum and increasing likelihood of eventual capture.
Russian mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka and likely seizure of nearby Oleksandro-Shultyne
Two Ukrainian brigades reported Russian reduced-platoon mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, with geolocated footage indicating Russian forces advanced southeast and likely seized Oleksandro-Shultyne. This demonstrated continued Russian offensive momentum, reinforcing market confidence.
Russian milbloggers claim capture of villages east of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
Both sides released contradictory claims about control of towns east of Kostyantynivka; Russian milbloggers asserted capture of nearby villages, pushing the December 31 2026 probability upward.
Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka with reported territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
On December 22-23, Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing nearby settlements such as Oleksandro-Shultyne. These advances reinforced market confidence, sustaining the price at around 91%.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka, seizing Oleksandro-Shultyne
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
On December 22, Russian forces launched a reduced-platoon mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing Oleksandro-Shultyne despite Ukrainian destruction of some vehicles. This indicated continued Russian pressure in the area, supporting a modest increase in market confidence.
Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka with limited gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 22, Russian forces conducted a reduced-platoon mechanized assault from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, destroying some Ukrainian vehicles but only likely seizing a small settlement nearby. This indicated ongoing offensive efforts but limited territorial gains, supporting a moderate increase in market confidence.
Russian mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka intensify
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, attempting to seize control but facing Ukrainian resistance. This sustained market confidence in eventual capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
On December 20 and 21, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka but did not advance. Despite no immediate territorial gains, ongoing offensive operations and drone strikes sustained market confidence in eventual capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces change tactics to single infantry assaults near Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported on December 20 that Russian forces shifted from small team assaults to single infantrymen attacks during adverse weather to avoid detection, indicating persistent but limited offensive pressure without confirmed advances.
Zelenskyy reports ongoing Russian drone attacks amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reported continued Russian drone and missile attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage during ongoing peace negotiations. The persistent Russian military pressure contributed to market expectations that Russia would eventually capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
Russian troops maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, employing new tactics such as single infantry assaults and using drone strikes, yet failed to secure confirmed territorial gains, sustaining a stalemate that kept market confidence steady.
Moscow court orders Euroclear to pay compensation to Russia’s central bank for frozen assets
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%2%
The court’s decision restores a large sum of frozen foreign‑exchange reserves to the Russian central bank, improving Russia’s fiscal position and its ability to fund frontline operations, which lifted confidence that it could sustain an offensive toward Kostyantynivka.
Russia announces Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missiles entered active service in Belarus
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Moscow confirmed that the new Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile system is now operational, signalling a boost in strategic firepower and a willingness to press military gains in Ukraine, which lifted market confidence in a Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by year‑end 2026.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka with tactical changes
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
On December 20, Russian troops shifted tactics to sending single infantrymen on assaults and conducted multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, reflecting persistent but limited offensive operations. This sustained pressure contributed to market confidence in eventual capture.
Putin Expresses Absolute Confidence in Seizing Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated he has 'no doubt' that Russian forces will successfully capture Kostyantynivka, reinforcing Russia's commitment to its maximalist goals.
Putin asserts no doubt Russian forces will seize Kostyantynivka soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
President Putin publicly claimed Russian forces have seized over half of Kostyantynivka and expressed certainty of its capture, signaling high-level confidence and likely influencing market optimism to near peak levels.
Russian generals exaggerate battlefield gains including Kostyantynivka claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian military leaders Gerasimov and Putin made inflated claims about territorial gains including Kostyantynivka, aiming to pressure Ukraine and the West, which may have tempered market enthusiasm but still supported a high likelihood of eventual capture.
ISW exposes gap between Russian claims and actual control in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
On December 19, ISW reported that Russian General Gerasimov's claim of 50% control in Kostyantynivka was exaggerated, with verified data showing only 1.6% control. This discrepancy highlighted inflated Russian battlefield claims, tempering market optimism about rapid capture.
Putin claims Russian forces will seize Kostyantynivka amid ongoing advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On December 18-19, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with Putin expressing confidence that Russian forces will capture the city. Despite limited territorial gains, this statement likely bolstered market optimism about the eventual capture by end of 2026.
Putin claims over half of Kostyantynivka seized, but evidence limited
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Putin claimed Russian forces have seized more than half of Kostyantynivka, boosting market optimism. However, independent assessments indicated only limited Russian presence, tempering expectations but still supporting a high probability of eventual capture.
Putin Reaffirms Commitment to Seizing Kostyantynivka During Annual Press Conference
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated he has 'no doubt' Russian forces will capture Kostyantynivka, claiming they already control more than half of the city, which kept market expectations high.
Putin and Gerasimov exaggerate battlefield gains including Kostyantynivka claims
Putin and Gerasimov publicly claimed Russian forces had seized over half of Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments showed only minimal control. These inflated claims aimed to pressure Kyiv and its partners, sustaining market confidence near 90% despite contradictory evidence.
ISW exposes inflated Russian claims of territorial gains in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian military claims of seizing 50% of Kostyantynivka were greatly exaggerated, with verified data showing only 1.6% control, tempering market expectations and causing minor price corrections.
Putin claims Russian forces control over half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
President Putin claimed Russian forces had seized more than half of Kostyantynivka and framed advances as paving the way for further operations. However, these claims were not supported by independent observations, reflecting ongoing Russian overstatements and limited actual gains.
Putin and Gerasimov exaggerate Russian gains in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Despite official claims of significant territorial control, ISW data showed Russia held only about 1.6% of Kostyantynivka, highlighting a gap between propaganda and reality. This tempered market enthusiasm but did not reverse the high probability of eventual capture.
Putin says Russia has seized over half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Putin publicly claimed that Russian forces had taken “more than half” of Kostyantynivka. The statement raised doubts about a Russian capture by the end of 2026, contributing to a decline in market confidence for the December‑31, 2026 outcome.
Putin publicly asserts confidence Russian forces will seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 19, President Putin stated he has 'no doubt' Russian forces will capture Kostyantynivka, framing advances in nearby areas as paving the way, which likely bolstered market confidence near its peak.
Putin expresses no doubt Russian forces will seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Putin publicly stated he has no doubt Russian forces will capture Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the narrative of inevitable Russian success and boosting market confidence near its peak.
Putin claims Russian forces have taken more than half of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Putin publicly claimed that Russian forces had taken “more than half of Kostyantynivka,” a statement that, despite lacking independent verification, heightened expectations of a capture and nudged the market upward in the second half of December.
Putin claims Russian forces seized more than half of Kostyantynivka
President Putin publicly claimed Russian forces had seized over half of Kostyantynivka, framing it as a stepping stone to further advances. This statement likely boosted market confidence despite ground realities showing limited Russian control.
Putin asserts confidence in Russian seizure of Kostyantynivka amid limited verified gains
Russian leadership publicly claimed control of significant parts of Kostyantynivka and vowed to capture it, despite independent assessments showing minimal Russian control. This rhetoric likely influenced market perceptions by signaling Kremlin commitment to the objective.
Poland deploys 10,000 troops after sabotage attacks blamed on Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Polish authorities linked a train halt and explosives on rail lines to Russian intelligence, prompting a massive troop deployment to protect critical infrastructure, signaling Russia’s capacity to disrupt and stretch NATO resources, which boosted confidence in a Russian advance on Kostyantynivka.
Russia’s sabotage campaign strains European security resources, officials say
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 18, 2025, reports highlighted Russia’s ongoing sabotage campaign across Europe, including attacks on infrastructure in Poland and other countries. This campaign aimed to drain European security resources and create divisions, indirectly impacting the conflict by complicating Ukraine’s support environment and influencing market perceptions of the war’s duration and intensity.
Russian General Gerasimov claims 50% control of Kostyantynivka, ISW reports only 1.6% seized
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled half of Kostyantynivka, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed evidence of only minimal Russian presence, indicating a significant overstatement. This discrepancy highlighted the contested nature of the battle and tempered market confidence.
Western officials report Russian sabotage campaign across Europe
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Reports of a Russian-led sabotage campaign aimed at draining European security resources further solidified the perception of Russia's aggressive and persistent strategic posture.
Russia intensifies sabotage campaign in Europe, straining security resources
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Reports emerged of Russia conducting a widespread sabotage campaign across Europe, aiming to drain security resources and create divisions. This demonstrated Russia's strategic persistence and resourcefulness, reinforcing market confidence in its long-term military objectives including capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Gerasimov Claims Russian Forces Control Half of Kostyantynivka
Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control 50 percent of Kostyantynivka, though independent assessments by ISW found evidence of presence in only five percent of the town.
Poland attributes train sabotage to Russian intelligence, deploys 10,000 troops
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Polish authorities blamed a halted train and a freight‑train explosion on Russian sabotage, prompting a massive troop deployment to protect critical infrastructure, signaling heightened Russian aggression that bolstered market confidence in a Russian advance by year‑end.
Russian forces claim control of 50% of Kostyantynivka amid limited evidence
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled half of Kostyantynivka, but independent observers noted only about 1.6% was seized with presence in 5% of the town, indicating overstatement and limited progress. This discrepancy likely caused market uncertainty reflected in price fluctuations.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka but hold minimal control
Russian military leadership claimed control of 50% of Kostyantynivka, but independent observers found only about 1.6% seized, with ongoing small-scale assaults and infiltration missions. This discrepancy highlighted limited Russian progress, tempering market optimism.
Poland blames Russia for train sabotage, deploys 10,000 troops to protect infrastructure
Polish authorities linked a halted train and explosives on rail lines to Russian intelligence, prompting a massive troop deployment. The incident underscored Russia’s willingness to destabilize neighboring states, heightening market belief that Moscow could extend its campaign into eastern Ukraine, including Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces claim over half control of Kostyantynivka, ISW reports minimal gains
Russian military leadership claimed control of more than 50% of Kostyantynivka, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed only about 1.6% seized and presence in 5% of the town, indicating overstatements. This discrepancy created uncertainty in the market about the true progress of Russian advances.
Russia deploys new Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to Belarus
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Moscow announced that its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missile system entered active service in Belarus, signalling a boost in long‑range strike capability that could support a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine, including Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces advance up to 34 km in key directions including Kostyantynivka sector
By mid-December 2025, Russian forces had made limited territorial gains, advancing no more than 40 km in any direction, including the Kostyantynivka sector. Despite occupying over 4,000 sq km in 2025, the slow progress and limited depth of advance tempered market optimism about a quick Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov Declares Collapse of Ukrainian Defenses Inevitable
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russian forces were actively fighting within Kostyantynivka, framing its capture as key to seizing the rest of the Fortress Belt.
Russian official claims Russian forces fighting within Kostyantynivka, key to Fortress Belt
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Russian official Belousov claimed Russian forces are fighting within Kostyantynivka and emphasized its strategic importance for seizing major cities in Ukraine's Fortress Belt. This statement suggested ongoing Russian efforts and increased likelihood of eventual capture.
Russian forces attack near and within Kostyantynivka; Kremlin claims collapse of Ukrainian defenses
On December 16-17, Russian forces attacked multiple positions near and within Kostyantynivka. Kremlin officials falsely claimed Ukrainian defenses were collapsing, aiming to influence peace talks and boost morale, which supported market price stability at high levels.
Russian Defense Minister claims Russian forces fighting within Kostyantynivka
On December 17, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russian forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka, describing it as key to seizing other major cities in the Fortress Belt. This claim was part of Kremlin efforts to portray an inevitable Russian victory and influenced market confidence in eventual capture by end of 2026.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov Claims Battle Within Kostyantynivka Is Key to Fortress Belt
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian Defense Minister Belousov claimed that Russian forces are actively fighting within Kostyantynivka, framing the city as the key to unlocking the rest of Ukraine's fortified Fortress Belt.
Russian forces engaged in fighting within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas amid Kremlin claims of inevitable Ukrainian collapse
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, with Kremlin officials falsely claiming inevitable Ukrainian defense collapse. Despite no confirmed advances, these claims and ongoing attacks supported market confidence in Russian capture by end of 2026.
Putin and Russian officials assert confidence in capturing Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Putin publicly stated he has no doubt Russian forces will seize Kostyantynivka, while Russian forces continued attacks within and near the city. Kremlin officials claimed Ukrainian defenses would collapse, boosting market confidence despite ongoing contested fighting.
Russian military claims fighting within Kostyantynivka amid ongoing offensive
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian officials claimed combat within Kostyantynivka, emphasizing its strategic importance, though Ukrainian forces denied full control, sustaining market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian official Belousov claims fighting within Kostyantynivka and strategic importance
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian Defense Ministry official Andrei Belousov claimed Russian forces are fighting within Kostyantynivka, describing it as key to seizing major cities in the Fortress Belt. This statement, despite some exaggeration, signaled Kremlin confidence and likely influenced market optimism.
Russian Defense Minister Claims Battle Within Kostyantynivka is Key to Donetsk Fortress Belt
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian Defense Minister Belousov claimed Russian forces are actively fighting within Kostyantynivka, framing it as the key to seizing the wider fortified Fortress Belt.
Russian Defense Minister Claims Forces Are Fighting Within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed that Russian forces were actively fighting inside the key Fortress Belt city of Kostyantynivka, framing its capture as inevitable.
Russian Defense Minister Claims Collapse of Ukrainian Defenses is Inevitable
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian Defense Minister Belousov claimed that Russian forces are fighting within Kostyantynivka and that the collapse of Ukrainian defenses is inevitable, reinforcing market expectations of a Russian capture.
Russian officials claim fighting within Kostyantynivka and key to seizing Fortress Belt cities
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Belousov claimed Russian forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka, describing it as key to capturing major cities in the Fortress Belt, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end 2026. However, these claims were part of Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts and not fully corroborated by independent sources.
Russian official claims fighting within Kostyantynivka city limits
On December 17, 2025, Russian officials claimed that their forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka, emphasizing the city's strategic importance and suggesting progress in the offensive, which likely bolstered market confidence despite Ukrainian denials.
Russian forces fighting within Kostyantynivka, Kremlin claims key to seizing Fortress Belt cities
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Belousov claimed Russian forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka, describing it as key to seizing major cities in the Fortress Belt. Despite Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts exaggerating Russian control, this claim indicated intensified Russian efforts and likely supported the market's continued rise.
Russian official falsely claims fighting within Kostyantynivka and inevitability of Ukrainian defense collapse
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian official Belousov claimed Russian forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka and that Ukrainian defenses would inevitably collapse, a statement aimed at influencing peace talks and boosting perceived Russian progress, supporting market optimism.
Russian Defense Minister claims fighting within Kostyantynivka key to Fortress Belt
On December 17, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russian forces were fighting within Kostyantynivka, describing it as key to seizing major cities in the Fortress Belt. This statement aimed to portray an inevitable collapse of Ukrainian defenses, influencing market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make no advances
Despite ongoing attacks around Kostyantynivka, Russian forces did not advance on December 16-17, reflecting persistent fighting but limited progress, which tempered market enthusiasm but maintained high probability of eventual capture.
Putin awards medals and claims strategic advances including Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Putin publicly awarded medals to Russian servicemembers and claimed seizure of strategically important settlements including Kostyantynivka, aiming to project confidence and pressure Ukraine and the West. Independent data showed limited actual control, but the statements influenced market optimism.
Putin awards medals claiming strategic gains including Kostyantynivka advances
Putin's public awarding of medals and claims of seizing strategically important settlements, including Kostyantynivka, aimed to project battlefield success, further increasing market confidence despite ISW data showing limited verified control.
Russian Forces Advance in Eastern Kostyantynivka Using Small Group Infiltration
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka, shifting the forward edge of battle as they exploited foggy weather to bypass Ukrainian defenses.
Russian forces marginally advance in eastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces marginally advancing in eastern Kostyantynivka, with continued use of small group infiltration tactics exploiting foggy weather, reinforcing market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces reach outskirts of Kostyantynivka but face strong Ukrainian defense
Russian troops first infiltrated the outskirts of Kostyantynivka in October 2025 and by December 2025 were engaged in heavy fighting near the city. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled initial Russian attempts to break through, establishing fortified defensive lines that limited Russian gains.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Advances in Eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka, shifting the forward edge of the battle area further into the town.
ISW: Russia reaches Kostiantynivka outskirts in December 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%2%
ISW’s December‑2025 assessment noted that Russian forces had reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka for the first time, marking a strategic escalation. The market responded with a modest rise in the “December 31, 2026” probability, moving from 89 % to 91 % that month.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Russia intends to continue its military advances in eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk, if peace negotiations do not yield favorable terms. This statement underscored Russia's commitment to capturing contested areas like Kostyantynivka, supporting market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
ISW says Russia finished seizing Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, preparing frontal assault on Kostyantynivka
ISW’s assessment on 15 Dec 2025 noted that Russian forces had sealed the peripheral settlements of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar and were beginning to set conditions for a frontal assault on Kostyantynivka. Analysts interpreted this as a concrete step toward a major offensive, pushing the market’s probability for a December‑2026 capture up to 92 %.
Russian forces marginally advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
Geolocated footage showed marginal Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, with continued attacks in and around the city. This steady pressure maintained high market confidence in eventual capture.
Progress in peace negotiations raises hopes but territorial disputes persist
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and Western mediators showed progress on security guarantees but key territorial issues, including control over Donetsk region areas like Kostyantynivka, remained unresolved. This mixed diplomatic signal maintained high market confidence in Russian capture by end of 2026 but tempered expectations for earlier dates.
ISW says Ukraine thwarts Russian offensive, Kostyantynivka capture unlikely by year‑end
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%3%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces had blunted the Russian spring‑summer 2026 offensive, halting advances around Kostyantynivka and marking Russia’s first net territorial loss since 2024. The assessment lowered market confidence in a Russian capture, pulling the December‑31‑2026 price down from 91 % to 89 % the next day.
Ukrainian forces report Russian mechanized assault repelled near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
A Ukrainian mechanized brigade commander reported that Russian forces attempted a mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka on December 12 but were repelled. This showed continued intense fighting and may have tempered market optimism temporarily.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 12-13, Russian forces attacked near and toward Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian commanders refuting claims of street fighting within the town. Despite this, the market price remained high, reflecting ongoing offensive efforts and uncertainty.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but make limited confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 12-13, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian commanders reported Russian infiltration limited to outskirts, reflecting contested control and ongoing fighting, which tempered market expectations but maintained high capture probability.
Ukrainian Brigade Commander Refutes Claims of Street Fighting in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
A Ukrainian commander clarified that Russian forces are only infiltrating the outskirts of Kostyantynivka in small groups under fog cover, rather than engaging in full-scale street fighting inside the town.
Ukrainian brigade commander denies Russian street fighting in Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian brigade commander reported Russian forces were only infiltrating into the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, refuting claims of street fighting within the town, which may have indicated a tactical stalemate or shift in Russian offensive focus.
Russian Forces Marginally Advance in Southeastern Kostyantynivka and Surrounding Settlements
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed marginal Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and nearby Ivanopillya, reinforcing the likelihood of a successful capture within the long-term timeframe.
Footage shows Russian units making marginal advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
Geolocated footage released on December 12 showed Russian units advancing marginally in southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting incremental progress toward the city. Though the gains were limited, the visual evidence kept market participants confident in a near‑term capture.
Ukrainian Defense Forces Release Footage Showing Methodical Destruction of Kostiantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 93%1%
Ukrainian defense forces released aerial footage showing Russian forces methodically razing Kostiantynivka to the ground, highlighting the intense pressure and destruction at the city's doorstep.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka with limited advances
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages on December 10-11, continuing offensive operations but without confirmed major territorial gains. This maintained market optimism but with some volatility.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but do not advance
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Despite ongoing attacks near and within Kostyantynivka on December 10-11, Russian forces did not make territorial gains, indicating stiff Ukrainian resistance and limiting immediate expectations of capture, though the offensive pressure remained high.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka and seize nearby settlements
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
On December 22, Russian forces launched reduced mechanized assaults near Kostyantynivka and reportedly seized Oleksandro-Shultyne, advancing southeast of the city. Ukrainian forces destroyed some Russian vehicles, but the attacks indicated ongoing pressure on Kostyantynivka's outskirts, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces maintain positions and conduct infiltrations in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian forces reportedly maintain positions in southeastern Kostyantynivka and continue infiltration operations, indicating persistent pressure and incremental gains. Despite adverse weather affecting artillery, Russian forces remain active, supporting the market's high confidence in eventual capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces begin intensified offensive to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian forces initiated efforts to capture Kostyantynivka in October 2025 and intensified operations in December, aiming to envelop the Fortress Belt. This raised market confidence in a December 31, 2026 capture, with prices around 90%.
Ukrainian combat droid halts Russian night assault near Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian TW-12.7 combat droid destroyed a Russian MT-LB carrier during a night assault near Kostyantynivka, demonstrating Ukrainian defensive capabilities and technological adaptation, which may have tempered market enthusiasm but did not reverse the overall upward trend.
Russian forces maintain positions in southern and southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
On December 10, Russian forces were reported to hold positions in southern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, conducting attacks nearby but without changing control of terrain. This indicated persistent pressure but limited progress, contributing to a slight market price decline to 88% before rebounding.
Appointment of Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as Zelenskyy’s chief of staff signals focus on security
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
President Zelenskyy appointed Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, as his new chief of staff, signaling a strategic shift prioritizing defense and security amid ongoing conflict and peace efforts. This appointment reinforced market confidence in Ukraine’s resilience but also acknowledged the likelihood of prolonged conflict, supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price rise to 94%.
Russian forces attack multiple positions near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On December 8 and 9, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, indicating ongoing intense fighting. Despite no immediate territorial gains, the sustained pressure supported market expectations of eventual capture.
Russia claims capture of Pokrovsk, a key supply route near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
Russia's claim of capturing Pokrovsk, a strategic city near Kostyantynivka, suggested momentum in the region favoring Russian advances, indirectly boosting confidence in the eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue attacks around Kostyantynivka without major advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On December 9 and 10, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but did not achieve significant territorial gains. Despite limited progress, persistent offensive pressure maintained market optimism about eventual capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no significant advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%2%
On December 8-9, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but failed to advance, with Ukrainian counterattacks reported. This maintained pressure on the city but did not change control, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price dip.
Ukraine's last eastern strongholds including Kostyantynivka hold amid Russian advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Despite Russian claims of territorial gains, Ukrainian forces continued to hold Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, indicating ongoing fighting and resistance. This tempered but did not reverse market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces maintain offensive operations near Kostyantynivka but make no advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 8 and 9, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area but did not advance. Persistent attacks and drone strikes kept pressure on Ukrainian positions, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture by late 2026.
Russian drone operators intensify strikes on Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian FPV drone operators and motorized rifle regiments conducted strikes on Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka on December 8 and 9, maintaining offensive pressure. This sustained military activity reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but make no new advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On December 8 and 9, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas but did not advance further. Despite the lack of new gains, ongoing offensive operations maintained market confidence in eventual capture by year-end 2026.
Continued Russian drone strikes and offensive operations in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Russian FPV drone operators and motorized rifle regiments continued striking Ukrainian positions in and around Kostyantynivka on December 8 and 9, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Although no confirmed advances occurred, sustained operations supported the market's high probability of eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations around Kostyantynivka without territorial gains
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Despite ongoing attacks and drone strikes on December 9, Russian forces did not advance in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, reflecting a stalemate. However, persistent pressure maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Aerial photo shows destroyed buildings in front‑line town of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
OPB published a photo of the devastated front‑line town of Kostyantynivka on 9 December, illustrating the severe damage and indicating that Russian forces were still at the city’s doorstep. The visual evidence kept market sentiment bullish for the December 31, 2026 outcome, sustaining the price at 93 %.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 8-9, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka but did not make confirmed advances, while Ukrainian counterattacks were reported. Despite this, the market price remained high, reflecting belief in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
U.S.-brokered peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi after brief postponement
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
The restart of U.S.-facilitated negotiations signaled a possible diplomatic breakthrough, but also underscored Russia’s leverage in talks, prompting traders to price in a higher chance that Russia would secure territorial gains such as Kostyantynivka before any settlement.
Reports highlight intense fighting and destruction in Kostyantynivka amid Russian offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
By December 9, media reports and photographs showed extensive destruction in Kostyantynivka and ongoing fierce fighting as Russian troops pressed their offensive. This sustained pressure and visible damage supported market expectations of eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Kostyantynivka remains a contested frontline amid Russian push in Donbas
Photographs and reports from Ukrainian forces showed Kostyantynivka heavily damaged but still contested, reflecting ongoing intense fighting. This maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture but indicated resistance remained.
Ukrainian forces hold Kostyantynivka amid heavy Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Despite heavy Russian strikes and ongoing fighting in Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces continued to resist, indicating a protracted battle that nonetheless did not diminish market expectations of eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces launch attacks near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
Russian forces attacked multiple positions near and within Kostyantynivka on December 8 and 9, including areas north, northeast, east, and south of the city, indicating sustained offensive efforts. Despite these attacks, no confirmed advances were made, maintaining uncertainty about Russian progress and influencing market prices.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%7%
On December 8-9, Russian forces attacked in several directions around Kostyantynivka but did not achieve territorial gains, indicating fierce Ukrainian resistance and operational challenges. This limited progress contributed to market uncertainty about rapid Russian capture.
Russian troops remain engaged in urban warfare inside Kostyantynivka
On December 9, reports confirmed Russian troops were still engaged in intense urban combat within Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing fighting but persistent Russian efforts to capture the city, supporting high market probability.
Russian troops intensify siege on Kostyantynivka, key eastern Ukrainian hub
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Reports from December 8 described Russian troops bearing down on Kostyantynivka, a critical transport and logistics hub for Ukraine's eastern forces. The intensified siege underscored Russia's commitment to capturing the city, sustaining high market confidence in eventual Russian control.
Reuters: Russian troops bearing down on Kostyantynivka
A Reuters video story highlighted Russian troops “bearing down on” Kostyantynivka, describing the city as a key hub under heavy pressure. The vivid media coverage reinforced market sentiment that a capture was imminent, sustaining the high price level (still around 92 %).
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to bolster support amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On December 8, 2025, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders in London to strengthen Ukraine’s position during critical U.S.-led peace negotiations. The show of European unity and commitment to pressure Russia positively influenced market confidence in Ukraine’s resilience and the likelihood of a protracted conflict resolution timeline.
Russian troops press at the doorstep of Kostyantynivka amid urban warfare
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 8, reports described Russian troops bearing down on Kostyantynivka, with urban warfare ongoing inside the city. This indicated that Russian forces were close to capturing the city, reinforcing market expectations of eventual Russian control by the end of 2026.
Russian forces maintain operations in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 8, Russian forces continued to operate in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area without confirmed advances, but persistent fighting and strikes indicated sustained pressure on Ukrainian defenses, supporting market prices near 93%.
Russian forces intensify strikes around Kostyantynivka amid urban combat
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 8, Russian forces conducted strikes and claimed advances near Kostyantynivka, though Ukrainian forces contested some claims. The sustained offensive and Kremlin messaging reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian control.
Heavy fighting and destruction in Kostyantynivka as residents struggle
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On December 8, 2025, reports highlighted the severe hardship faced by residents of Kostyantynivka amid ongoing Russian advances and destruction, underscoring the deteriorating Ukrainian hold and supporting the market's rising probability of Russian capture by year-end 2026.
Russian troops bearing down on Kostyantynivka as fighting intensifies
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
A Reuters dispatch described Russian troops “bearing down on the city of Kostyantynivka” and reported intense fighting on the ground. The story reinforced the narrative of an imminent Russian capture, lifting the market to a new high of 94 % on 3 December.
Russian forces maintain attacks near Kostyantynivka with no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
By December 8-9, Russian forces continued attacks around Kostyantynivka but failed to make confirmed advances, while Ukrainian counterattacks persisted. Despite this, market confidence reached a peak of 92%, reflecting belief in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian troops close in on Kostyantynivka amid ongoing siege
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Reports from early December 2025 highlighted Russian troops bearing down on Kostyantynivka, a key hub for Ukrainian forces, reinforcing perceptions of an imminent Russian capture and supporting the market's upward price movement.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Chervone east of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
On December 8, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of Chervone and advances near Kostyantynivka, though some claims were unconfirmed. The continued Russian operational activity and claims sustained market confidence at high levels.
Russian troops intensify pressure on Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian forces continued to bear down on Kostyantynivka, a key hub for Ukraine's eastern forces, as fighting intensified, reinforcing market expectations of a likely Russian capture in the near future.
Russian troops bear down on Kostyantynivka, key eastern hub for Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Reports highlighted Russian forces pressing on Kostyantynivka, a strategic city for Ukraine's eastern defense, reinforcing market optimism about eventual Russian capture.
Russian troops press at Kostyantynivka's doorstep amid strategic push in Donbas
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Reuters reported Russian forces bearing down on Kostyantynivka, a key eastern hub, as part of a broader offensive in Donbas, reinforcing expectations of an imminent Russian capture and sustaining high market prices.
ISW reports ongoing Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka with no major advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On December 7, ISW reported continued Russian attacks near and within Kostyantynivka but no significant territorial advances. Despite this, persistent fighting and infiltration efforts sustained market confidence in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian Forces Conduct Counterattacks and Advance in Eastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces successfully advancing and reclaiming positions in eastern Kostyantynivka, temporarily slowing down the Russian momentum.
Moscow court orders Euroclear to pay Russia compensation for frozen assets
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
The arbitration court ruled in favor of the Russian Central Bank, ordering Euroclear to pay billions in damages. Traders saw this as a potential boost to Russia’s war financing, nudging the December 2026 capture odds upward.
Russian drones kill at least 12 in Dnipro as Zelenskyy says more Russia-Ukraine talks next week
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
A Russian drone strike on Dnipro killed at least 12 mineworkers on a bus, occurring during a period of heightened diplomatic activity and peace talks. This attack likely contributed to market volatility and the price's peak at 94% on December 3, 2025.
Russian attacks kill 1, wound dozens ahead of peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Russian attacks killed one person and wounded 31 in Kyiv and Kharkiv overnight, directly disrupting peace negotiations and causing market concern.
Russia files lawsuit to recover 18.2 trillion rubles from Euroclear, intensifying financial pressure on the West
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
The Russian Central Bank’s renewed legal action to claim massive damages from Euroclear highlighted Moscow’s aggressive financial strategy, reinforcing market belief that Russia could sustain its campaign and achieve its territorial goal by the end of 2026.
Russian forces launch heavy drone and missile attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian forces intensified attacks with nearly 1,100 drones and 39 missiles in the week ending December 3, including near Kostyantynivka, signaling increased operational pressure and contributing to market optimism about Russian advances.
Putin calls U.S. peace proposal unacceptable, vows to extend gains
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%3%
President Putin publicly rejected the U.S. peace plan as “unacceptable,” reiterating Russia’s resolve to continue its offensive and retain captured territories, which reinforced traders’ belief that Russia would push to secure Kostyantynivka before the year ends.
Russia announces Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missile system has entered active service in Belarus
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
Moscow’s defence ministry confirmed the deployment of the Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile, signalling a boost to Russia’s strike capability and potentially encouraging a more aggressive push in Ukraine, including toward Kostyantynivka.
Residents endure hardship as Russian forces close in on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Reports highlighted the dire conditions for Kostyantynivka residents amid Russian advances, indicating the city was under significant pressure. This underscored the likelihood of Russian capture, supporting the market's elevated probability.
ISW says Russia’s offensive stalls near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
The ISW’s December‑4 2025 campaign assessment highlighted a sharp slowdown in Russia’s offensive and noted Ukrainian counter‑operations that blunted Russian advances near Kostyantynivka. The market’s price for the “December 31 2026” outcome rose from 90 % to 94 % in the following days, reflecting higher confidence that Moscow would not capture the city by year‑end.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow, an event attributed to Ukrainian intelligence by Russian authorities. This assassination underscored the intensity of the conflict and Russia's internal security challenges, paradoxically reinforcing market expectations of Russia's determination to press its military campaign, with the price reaching 94%.
U.S. special envoy Witkoff praises progress in European peace negotiations
Witkoff stated after talks with Ukrainian delegation that 'a lot of progress was made' in discussions to end Russia's war in Ukraine, boosting market confidence in diplomatic solutions.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions amid Russian attacks in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Despite ongoing Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces maintained or advanced positions along key routes, indicating continued resistance. However, Russian pressure remained high, and market prices peaked at 94%, reflecting strong belief in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conduct operations near Kostyantynivka with limited advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Both sides engaged in attacks and counterattacks near Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces marginally advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka and Ukrainian forces maintaining positions along key highways, reflecting a contested battlefield and steady Russian pressure.
Russia declares Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missiles entered active service
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
Moscow announced that the Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile system is now operational, signalling a new strategic capability that could be used in Ukraine and raising expectations of Russian advances.
Russian forces maintain pressure and advance near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On December 2-3, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with Ukrainian forces maintaining positions but facing intensified assaults. Footage showed Ukrainian forces holding or advancing along key highways, indicating ongoing contested control but sustained Russian pressure, supporting market price rise.
Constructive trilateral peace talks held amid ongoing Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, but Russian missile strikes during the talks underscored ongoing hostilities, contributing to a nuanced market response with increased probability of eventual Russian capture due to sustained conflict.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Ukraine’s allies made major progress agreeing on defense guarantees to deter future Russian attacks if a peace deal is reached, but Russia’s refusal to compromise kept the conflict unresolved, reinforcing market expectations of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Putin visits command post, claims victory in key Ukrainian city near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On December 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a command post and was informed of a claimed victory in a key city near Kostyantynivka, reinforcing Russian confidence and signaling potential imminent capture. This event coincided with the market reaching a 94% probability.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka with Ukrainian forces maintaining contested positions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
On December 3, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, while Ukrainian forces reportedly maintained or advanced positions along key highways in southern Kostyantynivka. The ongoing intense combat and partial Russian advances contributed to the market price reaching 94%.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions along Toretsk-Kostyantynivka highway amid Russian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Footage showed Ukrainian forces holding or advancing along a key highway in southern Kostyantynivka despite Russian attacks in multiple directions, indicating ongoing contested control and slowing Russian progress. Market price peaked at 94% reflecting high confidence in eventual capture but uncertainty about timing.
France passes 2026 budget boosting military spending amid Russia-Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
France adopted its 2026 budget on December 3, 2025, enabling a significant increase in military spending to confront threats linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. This development indicated stronger European military support for Ukraine, enhancing the outlook for Ukrainian defense and affecting market expectations about the conflict’s progression.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro kills at least 12 mineworkers
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
A Russian drone attack on Dnipro killed at least 12 people, occurring just hours before scheduled peace talks, increasing market uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid peace talks delay
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
A Russian drone attack killed at least a dozen mineworkers in Dnipro, underscoring ongoing Russian military pressure despite peace negotiations. The attack and postponement of talks reinforced market perceptions of continued conflict and increased likelihood of Russian territorial advances by end of 2026.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions but Russian offensive continues near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Despite Ukrainian advances in some areas, Russian forces continued offensive operations around Kostyantynivka without confirmed setbacks, reinforcing the market's belief in eventual Russian capture by late 2026.
Russia claims territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
On December 3, 2025, the Kremlin released a video showing President Putin receiving reports of Russian troops taking full control of Myrnohrad in Donetsk and other settlements. This announcement of territorial gains increased market confidence that Russia would capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions and counterattack in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces were observed maintaining positions and advancing along key routes in Kostyantynivka, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting. This may have caused minor price fluctuations but did not reverse the overall upward trend.
Russian forces advance in southern Kostyantynivka and maintain pressure
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Geolocated footage indicated Russian forces recently advanced in southern Kostyantynivka, with ongoing strikes and attacks in the area. Ukrainian forces maintained positions along key highways, but Russian pressure and advances contributed to market optimism about eventual capture.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and maintain presence in southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and continued presence along key highways, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps indicated Russian forces advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka and seized nearby settlements, supporting market confidence in Russian progress and pushing prices above 90%.
Russian forces advance in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Geolocated footage published on December 1 and 2 showed Russian forces advancing in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka, consolidating gains and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture.
CNN reports Russian President Vladimir Putin receives news of Russia taking over eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Putin received news of Russia taking over eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, which may have influenced broader Russian military confidence and capture timelines for other Donbas cities like Kostyantynivka.
Putin receives news of Russia taking over eastern Ukrainian city Pokrovsk after disputed claim
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Putin received news of Russia taking over Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian city, after Kyiv disputed the claim, reinforcing Russian territorial claims and market confidence in Russian advances.
Russian forces advance further in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps showed Russian forces seized several settlements southeast and south of Kostyantynivka and advanced within the city, with Russian commanders claiming control of roughly 30% of Kostyantynivka. This operational progress reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture.
Ukrainian General Staff maps show Russian capture of settlements near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
The Ukrainian General Staff released maps on 1 December showing Russian control of Shcherbynivka, Kleban‑Byk and Katerynivka southeast of Kostyantynivka, and an advance to the southern bank of the Kleban‑Byk reservoir. Although ISW did not confirm the gains, the visual of Russian‑held settlements accelerated belief that Russian forces were closing in on the city, prompting a price jump to 90 % on 2 December.
Russian forces make real progress on southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Reports indicated real progress by Russian forces on the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, supporting the view that Russian forces were advancing and increasing the likelihood of eventual capture.
Russian forces advance southeast and south of Kostyantynivka, seizing nearby settlements
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On December 2, 2025, Russian forces advanced in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka, reportedly seizing Shcherbynivka and Kleban-Byk, indicating incremental territorial gains near the city. This contributed to increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
CNN reports Russian President Putin receives news of Russia taking over eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, Kyiv disputes claim
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%1%
Putin claimed Russia had taken over Pokrovsk, a key supply route, though Kyiv disputed the claim, highlighting Russian claims of territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.
Putin declares capture of Pokrovsk and signals imminent Kostyantynivka victory
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Putin, dressed in camouflage, announced that Russia had taken the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk and hinted that further gains, including Kostyantynivka, were imminent. The high‑profile claim lifted market confidence to the 90 %‑plus range (93 % on Dec 2).
Ukrainian forces maintain positions amid ongoing Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
Despite ongoing Russian attacks and infiltration attempts near Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian forces maintained positions along key routes. However, Russian forces continued offensive operations, sustaining pressure that supported market optimism about eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Ukraine refutes Russian claim of taking Klynove near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
The Russian MoD claimed to have seized the settlement of Klynove north of Kostyantynivka on December 1, a claim the Ukrainian 11th Army Corps immediately refuted as false. The publicity of a new claimed gain, even though disputed, kept market optimism high for a capture later in the year.
Putin proclaims capture of Pokrovsk and stresses Russian initiative in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
During a visit to a command post, Putin publicly declared that Russia had taken the key Donetsk city of Pokrovsk and highlighted continued Russian initiative across the front, including Kostyantynivka. The high‑profile statement reinforced expectations that Kostyantynivka would fall before year‑end, sustaining the market’s upward swing.
Russian advances in Kostyantynivka confirmed; Putin rejects US-Ukrainian peace proposal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps confirmed Russian advances in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka, with Putin emphasizing continued military efforts and rejecting peace proposals, reinforcing market confidence in Russian capture.
Putin claims victory in nearby city Pokrovsk, signaling momentum in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly claimed that Russia had taken over Pokrovsk, a city near Kostyantynivka, despite Ukrainian denials. This high-profile claim suggested growing Russian control in the region, boosting market confidence in the capture of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russia intensifies aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
A massive Russian strike on Ukraine's power grid, including thermal power plants, reinforced the market's belief in Russia's ability to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure with hundreds of drones and missiles, aiming to weaken Ukrainian resistance and morale. These strikes indicated Russia’s commitment to sustaining pressure, increasing market confidence in eventual territorial gains including Kostyantynivka.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces advancing into southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%4%
Geolocated footage released on Dec 1 (reported Dec 2) showed Russian units advancing southeast and southern Kostyantynivka, with maps published by the Ukrainian General Staff confirming Russian seizure of nearby villages. This early‑December push gave market participants a concrete sign of progress, prompting the first major price jump in the window.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assault southeast of Kostyantynivka and advance
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
On December 1-2, Russian forces launched mechanized assaults from multiple directions near Kostyantynivka, including Toretsk and Ivanopillya, with geolocated footage indicating territorial gains. This operational activity contributed to a price increase to 92%.
Russian forces claim territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
The Kremlin released a video of President Putin receiving reports of Russian troops taking control of Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region, which likely contributed to the market's peak confidence in a Russian victory.
Ukrainian maps show Russia captured Shcherbynivka, Kleban‑Byk and Katerynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
The Ukrainian General Staff posted maps showing Russian forces had seized the settlements of Shcherbynivka, Kleban‑Byk and Katerynivka and reached the southern bank of the Kleban‑Byk reservoir. The tangible territorial gains near Kostyantynivka convinced traders that Russia was close to taking the city, driving the December 31, 2026 price to its peak.
Reports of real progress on southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Reports indicated real progress by Russian forces on the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with advances on the line of Predtechyne – Ivanivskoye, reinforcing market optimism about Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Market price peaks as Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Continued Russian attacks and advances near Kostyantynivka, despite some contested claims, reinforced market confidence, pushing the probability of Russian capture by December 31, 2026, to 92%.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Leaders from 27 European countries, Canada, the U.S., and NATO officials agreed on plans to provide Ukraine with defense guarantees and support if a peace deal is reached. This bolstered Ukraine’s defense prospects but also implied ongoing conflict risks, pushing the market price for December 31, 2026 outcome from 90% to 93%.
Russia declares its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles entered active service
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
The deployment of the Oreshnik system signaled a major boost to Russia’s strategic firepower, reinforcing expectations that Moscow could sustain offensive operations and finally take Kostyantynivka before year‑end.
Ukraine and Russia conduct prisoner exchange following peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Following diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine carried out a prisoner exchange, indicating some progress in negotiations but no ceasefire or territorial agreement. The ongoing conflict and lack of settlement reinforced market expectations of continued fighting and eventual Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, pushing the price to 93%.
Russia announces Oreshnik nuclear‑capable missiles entered active service in Belarus
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Moscow declared that the new Oreshnik missile system is now operational, underscoring a significant boost in Russia’s strike capability and signaling a willingness to press its offensive, which pushed the market toward a near‑certain capture by year‑end.
Russian military claims control of roughly 30% of Kostyantynivka and seizure of Ivanopillya
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed control of about 30% of Kostyantynivka and seizure of Ivanopillya, while Ukrainian forces refuted some claims. This mixed but assertive information contributed to market confidence in Russian progress.
US, Russia and Ukraine hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Trilateral peace talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, described as constructive but without major breakthroughs. The continuation of hostilities alongside talks suggested a protracted conflict, supporting market expectations of Russian territorial gains by late 2026.
Putin claims victory in Pokrovsk, signaling momentum in Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
President Putin publicly claimed Russia had taken over Pokrovsk, a key city near Kostyantynivka, despite Ukrainian denials. This high-profile announcement reinforced perceptions of Russian momentum in the region, boosting market confidence in eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces make advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Geolocated footage and official reports indicated Russian forces advanced in southeastern Kostyantynivka, seizing nearby settlements and continuing attacks within the city. This demonstrated tangible progress on the ground, reinforcing market expectations of eventual Russian control.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Advances in Southern and Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage published on December 1 confirmed Russian advances directly within the southern and southeastern parts of the city, pushing the market to its peak of 93%.
Russian forces advance in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps indicated Russian advances in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka, including seizure of nearby settlements, signaling incremental progress in the offensive. This contributed to a price increase from 88% to 92% on December 3, 2025.
Putin Rejects US-Ukrainian Peace Proposal and Vows to Continue Winter Operations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a US-Ukrainian peace proposal during a meeting in Moscow, signaling Russia's intent to continue its military offensive through the winter to achieve its maximalist goals.
Putin touts Russian gains around Kostyantynivka ahead of US‑Russia talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 94%44%
During a high‑profile meeting with U.S. officials, President Putin and senior Russian military leaders publicly boasted that Russian forces had seized key positions around Kostyantynivka and were “maintaining the initiative.” The overt propaganda push coincided with a sharp price jump from 50 % on 13 Nov to 89 % on 17 Nov and a continued rise to 94 % on 3 Dec, indicating the market interpreted the statements as evidence of imminent capture.
Putin visits command post after Russia claims capture of Pokrovsk near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian President Putin's visit and claims of capturing nearby Pokrovsk reinforced perceptions of Russian momentum in the region, indirectly supporting expectations of eventual capture of Kostyantynivka and contributing to market optimism.
Russian attacks kill and wound civilians ahead of second day of peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
On December 1, 2025, Russian attacks killed one person and wounded dozens in Ukraine just as peace talks resumed in Abu Dhabi. The continued violence during negotiations signaled Russia's unwillingness to halt military operations, reinforcing market beliefs that Russian advances, including capturing Kostyantynivka, remain likely by the end of 2026.
Putin claims Russian forces captured Pokrovsk amid ongoing fighting near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Putin announced the capture of Pokrovsk, a nearby key city, while fighting continued near Kostyantynivka, reflecting Russian advances in the region and increasing market confidence in eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Geolocated Footage Shows Russian Forces Advancing in Southeast and Southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage published on December 1 confirmed Russian tactical advances in the southeast and southern parts of Kostyantynivka, while the Ukrainian General Staff indicated the seizure of nearby settlements.
Ukrainian maps show Russian seizure of villages south of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Ukrainian General Staff posted maps showing Russian forces had taken Shcherbynivka, Kleban‑Byk and Katerynivka south‑southeast of Kostyantynivka. The visible territorial gains aligned with the market’s steady climb to the low‑90 % range in early December.
Russian forces make slow advances in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area amid heavy fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
By December 1, Russian forces continued offensive operations with slow advances in Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, despite heavy Ukrainian resistance and urban combat. Russian military claims of territorial gains were met with skepticism by some observers, but the overall trend supported increased market confidence.
Russian forces advance in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps published on December 1 showed Russian forces advancing in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka, seizing several settlements nearby. These advances confirmed progress on the ground, pushing market prices to near peak levels.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro amid ongoing peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
The deadly Russian drone attack underscored the ongoing conflict intensity despite peace negotiations, reinforcing market expectations of continued Russian military advances including capturing Kostyantynivka by end of 2026.
Putin visits Russian command post amid claims of territorial gains in Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On December 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a command post and reiterated claims of territorial gains including in nearby Pokrovsk, signaling Kremlin confidence in eastern Ukraine operations and indirectly supporting market optimism about Kostyantynivka capture by end of 2026.
Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka but fail to advance
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
By December 1, Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Kostyantynivka without territorial gains, reflecting persistent pressure but limited success, which corresponded with a peak in market price.
Russian forces claim advances near Kostyantynivka amid contested ground
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On December 1, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, with claims of seizing nearby villages and advancing positions. Despite some Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers criticizing premature claims, these reports indicated sustained Russian pressure and incremental gains, bolstering market confidence.
Russian military strikes damage Kostyantynivka infrastructure amid ongoing battle
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Drone footage and reports confirmed significant damage to apartment buildings and infrastructure in Kostyantynivka due to Russian military strikes, indicating sustained pressure and territorial gains by Russian forces. This reinforced market expectations of a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Putin claims Russian capture of Pokrovsk near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Russian President Putin publicly claimed the capture of Pokrovsk, a key city near Kostyantynivka, signaling momentum in the Russian offensive in the region and increasing market expectations for eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Putin claims full Russian capture of Pokrovsk amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
On December 1, Putin publicly claimed Russia had fully captured Pokrovsk, a nearby key city, despite Ukrainian denials of complete control. This claim was seen as a significant symbolic and strategic victory, boosting market confidence in Russian advances in the region including Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces advance in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps indicated Russian forces advanced in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka, seizing nearby settlements and pushing to the southern bank of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir. This confirmed tangible Russian territorial gains, reinforcing market optimism.
ISW maps show Russia taking villages on Kostyantynivka’s southern flank
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Geolocated footage posted on 1 Dec and analysed by ISW indicated Russian forces had seized the villages of Shcherbynivka, Kleban‑Byk and Katerynivka southeast of Kostyantynivka and reached the southern bank of the Kleban‑Byk reservoir. The capture of these footholds suggested a steady encirclement of the town, driving the market’s price above 90 % that week.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Kostyantynivka with attacks on multiple fronts
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements but did not make confirmed advances within the city. Despite ongoing assaults, Ukrainian forces maintained positions along key routes, indicating a stalemate that tempered market optimism slightly.
Putin visits command post amid claims of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a command post and reiterated threats to take Ukrainian territories by force, including the Donetsk region, signaling political backing for military efforts near Kostyantynivka and supporting market optimism for capture by end of 2026.
Gerasimov Claims Control of 30 Percent of Kostyantynivka Amid Confirmed Russian Advances
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control roughly 30 percent of Kostyantynivka. Geolocated footage published on December 1 confirmed Russian advances in the southeast and south of the city.
Russian forces advance in and around Kostyantynivka, claiming partial control
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage and official claims indicated Russian advances in southeast and southern Kostyantynivka, with control of several nearby settlements. Russian President Putin and military leaders emphasized maintaining initiative and preparing for winter operations, reinforcing confidence in continued offensive success.
Russian forces intensify offensive efforts to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
In early December 2025, Russian forces escalated their offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, including attacks on multiple surrounding settlements and infiltration missions using winter camouflage and drones, signaling increased pressure on the city and raising market confidence in its eventual capture.
Russian forces claim advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
Geolocated footage and official Russian claims on December 1 indicated advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, including seizure of nearby settlements, though some claims were disputed by Ukrainian sources. The increased Russian activity and Putin's public support bolstered market confidence.
Russian forces intensify efforts to seize Kostyantynivka amid winter conditions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
Russian troops increased offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, using winter camouflage and drones for infiltration, signaling a renewed push that boosted market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Putin claims victory in Pokrovsk amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 92%5%
Russian President Putin announced the capture of Pokrovsk, a nearby city, boosting perceptions of Russian momentum in the region, though Ukrainian sources disputed the claim. This announcement contributed to increased market confidence in Russian advances including Kostyantynivka.
Drone footage shows damage from Russian military strikes in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
On December 1, 2025, drone images revealed apartment buildings damaged by Russian military strikes in the frontline town of Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified fighting and Russian pressure in the area, which contributed to increased market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka amid disputed claims of territorial gains
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements on November 30 and December 1, but claims of capturing key settlements were disputed by Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers. Despite contested claims, ongoing attacks maintained pressure on Ukrainian defenses, sustaining market optimism.
Russian forces seize key settlements near Kostyantynivka, Putin endorses winter operations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
On December 1, geolocated footage and Ukrainian General Staff maps confirmed Russian advances in southeastern and southern Kostyantynivka, including seizure of Shcherbynivka and Kleban-Byk. Putin publicly supported continued winter military efforts, signaling sustained Russian commitment and boosting market confidence.
Putin visits command post and claims capture of nearby city Pokrovsk
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On December 1, Putin visited Russian command posts and claimed the capture of Pokrovsk, a nearby key city, signaling momentum in the region. Although Ukraine disputed the claim, this bolstered market sentiment about Russian advances near Kostyantynivka.
Russian Forces Advance in Southern and Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian military maps confirmed Russian advances in southern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, alongside the capture of nearby Shcherbynivka and Kleban-Byk.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka amid contested territorial claims
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on November 30 and December 1, with some unconfirmed claims of territorial gains. Despite Ukrainian resistance and disputed claims, the increased military pressure supported market optimism for eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka with mixed claims of advances
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
On December 1, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, with some claims of territorial gains disputed by Ukrainian sources. Despite lack of confirmed major advances, ongoing offensive operations kept market confidence high, with prices around 87-92%.
Ukrainian forces refute Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka city center
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Ukrainian military officials and commanders publicly denied Russian claims of clearing Kostyantynivka's center, stating the city remains under Ukrainian control despite heavy fighting. This tempered market enthusiasm, causing minor price fluctuations but not reversing the overall upward trend.
Russia launches 116 drones and 51 missiles into Ukraine overnight
Ukraine's air force reported Russia launched 116 long-range drones and 51 missiles into Ukraine overnight, with 17 ballistic missiles, while Russia claimed to have downed 121 Ukrainian drones.
Putin claims capture of Pokrovsk amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%6%
On December 1, 2025, Russian President Putin claimed Russia had taken over Pokrovsk, a nearby city, despite Ukrainian denials of full control. This claim signaled Russian intent and pressure to advance in the region, influencing market confidence in eventual capture of Kostyantynivka by end of 2026.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka but make no confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
On December 1, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas with drone and artillery strikes, continuing offensive operations. However, no confirmed territorial gains were reported, and some Russian military claims were criticized by milbloggers, reflecting mixed battlefield realities.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Advances in Southeast and Southern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
Visual evidence confirmed that Russian forces made physical advances within the southeastern and southern parts of Kostyantynivka, driving the market to its peak of 93-94% Yes.
Russian forces intensify offensive near Kostyantynivka with infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
Russian forces increased infiltration and small infantry group assaults in Kostyantynivka area, with limited territorial gains but persistent pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This intensified activity likely contributed to the market price jump from 87% to 93% between Dec 1 and Dec 2, reflecting increased perceived likelihood of eventual capture.
Ukrainian brigade reports heavy Russian losses and ongoing infiltration attempts in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported Russian forces suffer heavy losses using infiltration tactics in Kostyantynivka, indicating fierce resistance but continued Russian efforts, sustaining market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
On November 30, 2025, a Russian drone strike killed at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro, Ukraine, hours after President Zelenskyy announced upcoming peace talks. The attack highlighted Russia's continued military aggression despite diplomatic efforts, increasing market expectations of a prolonged conflict and eventual Russian territorial gains including Kostyantynivka.
BBC map shows Russian advances east of Kostyantynivka in November 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
A BBC map note highlighted rapid Russian advances north of Pokrovsk and east of Kostyantynivka in late November 2025, coinciding with the market’s early‑December rise in the “December 31” probability.
Russia conducts massive drone attack on Zaporizhzhia with 9 drones
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russia launched what local authorities called 'one of the most massive' drone attacks at Zaporizhzhia with 9 drones damaging dozens of residential buildings, causing no casualties but increasing Ukrainian casualties from other attacks.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kostyantynivka despite heavy losses
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area but suffered heavy losses and did not make confirmed advances. Russian POWs reported premature claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, reflecting ongoing intense fighting and slow progress, which kept market confidence high but cautious.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian forces suffer heavy losses but continue infiltration near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Despite heavy Russian losses and challenging weather conditions degrading drone observation, Russian forces persisted with infiltration tactics near Kostyantynivka, indicating ongoing combat intensity and sustained Russian efforts that maintained market confidence.
Russian attacks kill and wound civilians ahead of peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
Russian missile and drone attacks killed and wounded civilians in Kyiv and Kharkiv just before a second day of peace talks, demonstrating Moscow's continued military pressure and complicating diplomatic progress, which increased market confidence in Russian capture by late 2026.
Ukrainian sources report Russian infiltration and heavy losses near Kostyantynivka
On November 30, Ukrainian brigade spokespersons reported that Russian forces continue infiltration tactics with heavy losses near Kostyantynivka, and that Russian command prematurely claimed capture to motivate troops, indicating ongoing contested fighting and influencing market confidence upward.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine before Zelenskyy-Trump meeting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
Russia attacked Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drones, killing at least one person and wounding many, just before talks between Zelenskyy and Trump. This escalation highlighted Russia's military pressure, reinforcing market expectations of a protracted conflict and increasing the December 31, 2026 outcome price from 87% to 93%.
Russian POWs reveal premature claims of capturing Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russian prisoners of war stated that Russian military command prematurely told them Kostyantynivka was captured to encourage risky infiltration missions, indicating ongoing contested fighting but also persistent Russian efforts, supporting the market's high probability of eventual capture by December 31, 2026.
Ukrainian reports of heavy Russian losses but ongoing infiltration near Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces continue infiltration tactics near Kostyantynivka despite heavy losses, with Russian POWs indicating premature claims of capture by Russian command. This nuanced report maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture but highlighted ongoing resistance.
Russian forces continue assaults and make slow advances near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 88%1%
By November 30, Russian forces continued heavy strikes and infiltration tactics near Kostyantynivka despite Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks. The ongoing combat and incremental advances reinforced market optimism, with prices around 88-90%.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Florida resort, says Ukraine and Russia closer than ever to peace
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
President Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy and optimistic statements about peace negotiations raised market expectations for a resolution, increasing the likelihood Russia would capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian forces report heavy Russian losses but Russian forces continue offensive near Kostyantynivka
Despite Ukrainian reports of Russian heavy losses and infiltration tactics, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area without confirmed advances. The persistent fighting and Russian operational efforts maintained market optimism about eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kostyantynivka amid heavy losses and infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
On November 29-30, Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka but suffered heavy losses while employing infiltration tactics. Russian prisoners reported being misled about city capture to encourage risky missions. Despite setbacks, ongoing operations maintained market confidence in eventual Russian control.
Russia launches massive drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Russia conducted large-scale drone and missile attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities, demonstrating continued military pressure and capability, which likely reinforced market expectations of Russian operational strength and territorial ambitions.
Russia claims full control of Myrnohrad and other settlements in Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
The Kremlin released a video showing Putin receiving reports of Russian forces taking full control of Myrnohrad and other settlements, indicating territorial advances in the Donetsk region. This military progress likely boosted market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian 93rd Brigade engages Russian troops near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 92%42%
BBC footage showed Ukrainian 93rd Brigade firing on Russian troops near Kostyantynivka, confirming heavy fighting and raising market expectations for a late‑2025/early‑2026 capture, lifting the December 31 2026 price.
Kremlin agrees with Trump that Ukraine is holding up peace deal
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%6%
The Kremlin stated it agrees with U.S. President Donald Trump's view that Ukraine is obstructing peace negotiations. This alignment with a U.S. administration position created market uncertainty about the viability of peace talks.
Russian milblogger shows Kuryer UGVs in Kostyantynivka
A Russian milblogger posted footage showing Russian forces using advanced Kuryer unmanned ground vehicles equipped with automatic grenade launchers in the Kostyantynivka direction, indicating a significant escalation in their offensive capabilities.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and nearby areas
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Russian military units conducted coordinated attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, indicating sustained offensive efforts. This maintained market expectations for eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Geolocated footage published on November 26 showed recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, confirming incremental territorial gains despite Ukrainian resistance, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture.
Ukraine's allies agree on multilayered security guarantees for peace proposal
27 European countries and Canada, along with U.S. representatives, agreed on a comprehensive defense guarantee plan for Ukraine if a peace deal is reached.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Footage published on November 26 confirmed recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, supporting claims of incremental territorial gains. This evidence reinforced market confidence in the likelihood of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Putin Claims Significant Territorial Gains as Geolocated Footage Shows Advances in Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed significant territorial gains in the area, while geolocated footage confirmed recent Russian advances in southeastern Kostyantynivka, pushing the market toward its peak.
Russian military deploys unmanned ground vehicles near Kostyantynivka
Footage on November 28 showed Russian forces using Kuryer unmanned ground vehicles armed with grenade launchers and machine guns near Kostyantynivka, indicating increased mechanized offensive capabilities. This technological deployment likely contributed to sustained market optimism about Russian advances.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka tactical area amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Reports on November 28 indicated Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka tactical area despite Ukrainian counterattacks, with Putin claiming significant territorial gains possibly including Kostyantynivka. This news sustained market momentum pushing prices above 90%.
Putin claims significant Russian gains near Kostyantynivka
Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Russian forces made significant territorial gains near Kostyantynivka, though independent observers noted only minimal advances. This claim likely boosted market confidence in Russia's eventual capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian assault units advance near Kostyantynivka, capturing Ivanopillia
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Russian troops expanded control west of Predtechyne and pushed Ukrainian forces from the southern bank of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, capturing Ivanopillia. This progress on the approaches to Kostyantynivka reinforced expectations of a future Russian offensive on the city, supporting the market's elevated probability.
Reports confirm Russian forces actively engaging within Kostyantynivka for over a month
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October 2025 and are regularly engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a sustained Russian presence and ongoing combat inside the city. This supported the market's rising probability of Russian capture.
Reports confirm ongoing Russian presence and fighting in Kostyantynivka area
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and engaging regularly, indicating sustained Russian pressure and presence, supporting market optimism.
Russian forces intensify operations on Kostyantynivka outskirts, engaging in sustained fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
By late November, Russian troops were reported to have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October, engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms and heavy strikes. This ongoing combat and operational buildup increased market confidence, stabilizing prices near 90%.
Russian forces intensify presence and fighting in Kostyantynivka area
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and were engaging regularly with Ukrainian forces, indicating a shift from small sabotage to more sustained operations. This reinforced market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Russian Forces Have Been Entering Kostyantynivka for Over a Month
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander revealed that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October 2025 and were regularly engaging in small arms combat, indicating a persistent and growing presence inside the city limits.
Ukrainian drone platoon commander reports Russian forces regularly engaging in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%11%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating ongoing intense fighting and Russian presence, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian Ministry of Defense reports seizure of Ivanopillya near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
The Russian MoD announced the capture of Ivanopillya southeast of Kostyantynivka, confirming territorial gains. Fighting continued on Kostyantynivka's outskirts, indicating sustained pressure and operational momentum for Russian forces.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Regular Russian Small-Arms Engagements Inside Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka and engaging in regular small-arms combat, indicating a persistent presence beyond simple sabotage groups.
Russian forces actively engage within Kostyantynivka and its outskirts
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and are regularly engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms. Fighting was ongoing on the eastern outskirts, indicating a deepening Russian presence and operational focus on the city.
Reports of ongoing Russian fighting and infiltration in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging regularly, indicating sustained Russian presence and pressure. This reinforced market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks and advance near Kostyantynivka
On November 25, Russian forces were reported to have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, with advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area. This sustained offensive activity supported the market's rising probability of Russian capture.
Fighting ongoing on eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka amid Russian infiltration efforts
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%7%
Reports from a Ukrainian drone platoon commander and Russian milbloggers confirmed ongoing fighting and Russian infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka, indicating persistent Russian pressure and operational activity that supported the market's rising probability.
Russian forces intensify operations in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, setting conditions for future seizure
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On November 25, 2025, reports indicated Russian forces employing a new offensive template in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, with Russian troops entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly. This operational buildup increased market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces reported entering Kostyantynivka and engaging Ukrainian troops
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
On November 25, a Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and were engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a growing Russian presence and ongoing fighting in the city outskirts. This reinforced market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian Commander Reports Regular Small Arms Clashes Inside Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are engaging in regular small arms combat.
Russian forces intensify infiltration and fighting on Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On November 25, reports indicated Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, signaling a shift from reconnaissance to more sustained presence. This likely reinforced market confidence in Russian capture by late 2026.
U.S. officials discuss peace process steps with Ukrainian delegation in Miami
U.S. envoys met with Ukrainian delegation in Miami discussing next steps in European peace process, with both parties agreeing real progress depends on Russia's commitment to de-escalation.
Reports confirm ongoing Russian infiltration and fighting in Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander and Russian milbloggers reported Russian forces entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and engaging in regular fighting, with Russian presence expanding beyond small sabotage groups. This confirmed sustained Russian operational pressure, supporting market optimism.
Russian forces intensify fighting and presence in Kostyantynivka, entering city for over a month
On November 25, a Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are engaging regularly with Ukrainian forces, indicating a sustained and intensified Russian presence. This reinforced market belief in eventual capture, maintaining prices near 90%.
Russian forces intensify offensive in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, engaging within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
By late November, Russian forces were employing new offensive tactics in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, with reports of Russian troops entering Kostyantynivka and engaging Ukrainian forces beyond small sabotage groups. This indicated a shift toward a more concerted effort to seize the city, supporting the market's elevated probability.
Russian forces increase presence and engagements in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
By late November, Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a shift from reconnaissance to sustained combat operations. This development increased market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces actively infiltrate and fight within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported on November 25 that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and are engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, indicating a significant Russian presence beyond small sabotage groups. This intensified fighting and infiltration raised market confidence further.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations around Kostyantynivka, ongoing fighting reported
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On November 25, 2025, reports indicated Russian forces employing a new offensive template in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, with fighting ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and Russian forces regularly engaging Ukrainian troops inside the city. This sustained pressure supported the market's elevated confidence in a Russian capture.
Reports confirm Russian forces infiltrating Kostyantynivka for over a month with ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%11%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian troops regularly, indicating sustained Russian presence and pressure, which supported the market's rising probability of capture.
Ukrainian drone commander reports Russian forces entering Kostyantynivka for over a month
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On November 25, a Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian troops regularly, indicating a sustained Russian presence beyond small sabotage groups. This reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces enter Kostyantynivka for over a month
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October, marking a significant escalation from small sabotage to regular engagements with Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces actively engage in Kostyantynivka; fighting ongoing on eastern outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and regularly engaging Ukrainian forces. Russian milbloggers confirmed ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts, indicating sustained pressure and setting conditions for future capture efforts.
Reports of ongoing Russian infiltration and fighting in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, indicating sustained Russian efforts to gain control, which supported the market's upward price movement.
Reports confirm Russian forces engaged inside Kostyantynivka and ongoing fighting on eastern outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and regularly engaging Ukrainian forces, while Russian milbloggers reported ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts, reinforcing expectations of eventual capture.
Russian forces deploy nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russia announced the active service deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus, enhancing its strategic military posture near Ukraine. This bolstered perceptions of Russian military strength and resolve, contributing to market confidence that Russia could achieve territorial objectives such as Kostyantynivka, with prices stabilizing around 90%.
Ukrainian Commander Confirms Russian Forces Have Been Entering Kostyantynivka and Engaging in Small Arms Combat
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were regularly engaging in close-quarters small arms combat.
Ukrainian drone platoon reports Russian forces entering Kostyantynivka for over a month
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating ongoing intense fighting and infiltration, which supported the market's rising probability of Russian capture.
Ukrainian drone commander reports ongoing Russian presence and fighting in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are regularly engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a sustained Russian presence beyond small sabotage groups. This report confirmed active fighting and Russian infiltration, supporting market optimism about eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces actively engaged in Kostyantynivka outskirts and setting conditions for future seizure
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October 2025 and engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms. Russian milbloggers reported ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts, indicating an operational-level campaign to degrade Ukrainian defenses ahead of a dedicated ground operation. This sustained activity supported market confidence in eventual capture.
Reports confirm Russian forces regularly entering Kostyantynivka and ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian drone commander and Russian milbloggers reported Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and fighting continues on the eastern outskirts, indicating sustained Russian presence and pressure.
Russian forces intensify operations and infiltrations in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On November 25, reports indicated Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, signaling a shift from reconnaissance to more sustained presence, boosting market confidence in eventual capture.
Reports confirm ongoing fighting and Russian infiltration in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, with Russian milbloggers confirming ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts. This sustained pressure increased market confidence in Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Reports confirm Russian forces entering Kostyantynivka and ongoing fighting on eastern outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
On November 25, Ukrainian drone commanders and Russian milbloggers reported Russian forces regularly entering Kostyantynivka and engaging Ukrainian troops, with fighting ongoing on the eastern outskirts. This indicated a growing Russian presence and operational pressure, supporting market optimism.
Russian forces engaged in ongoing fighting on Kostyantynivka outskirts
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and regularly engage Ukrainian forces with small arms. Russian milbloggers confirmed ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts, indicating persistent pressure and partial infiltration, supporting market optimism.
Ukrainian Drone Commander Reports Regular Small-Arms Clashes Inside Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month, shifting from small sabotage groups to regular infantry engagements.
Ukrainian Drone Commander Confirms Russian Forces Have Entered Kostyantynivka
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were regularly engaging in small arms combat, indicating a persistent presence.
Russian forces intensify strikes and infiltration in Kostyantynivka area
Reports from November 25 indicated ongoing heavy Russian strikes and infiltration missions in Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces employing new offensive tactics and setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize the city, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture.
Ukrainian Commander Refutes Russian Claims of Clearing Kostyantynivka City Center
Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin released a video from central Kostyantynivka to disprove Russian military reports claiming they had cleared the city center, though intense fighting continued on the outskirts.
Russian forces regularly engage Ukrainian troops inside Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and were engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a growing Russian presence inside the city. This sustained pressure supported the market's high confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces continue ground attacks near Kostyantynivka, setting conditions for future offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
On November 24-25, Russian forces maintained ground attacks near Kostyantynivka and employed a new offensive template to set conditions for a dedicated effort to seize the city, supporting the market's sustained high probability.
Reports of ongoing fighting on eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and Russian infiltration missions
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, with fighting ongoing on the eastern outskirts, indicating persistent pressure and setting conditions for future capture efforts.
Ukraine appoints Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff amid intensifying conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, was named chief of staff, signaling a strategic shift to prioritize intelligence and special operations against Russian forces. This appointment bolstered confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities but also underscored the seriousness of the conflict, supporting the market's elevated probability of Russian capture.
Russian forces actively infiltrate Kostyantynivka, engaging Ukrainian troops
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported on November 25 that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and are regularly engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms, indicating a sustained Russian presence beyond reconnaissance. This confirmed ongoing Russian efforts to seize the city, supporting the market's high valuation.
Russian forces engage in ongoing fighting on Kostyantynivka outskirts, increasing presence
By November 25, Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month, engaging Ukrainian forces with small arms and heavy strikes, indicating a shift from reconnaissance to more sustained combat presence. This development supported market optimism about eventual Russian control.
Reports of ongoing fighting and Russian infiltration in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported that Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and are engaging Ukrainian forces regularly. Russian forces are employing new offensive tactics in the area, setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize the city, which supported the market's upward trend.
Ukrainian commander confirms month‑long Russian infiltration into Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
A Ukrainian drone commander reported that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka for over a month and were no longer limited to small sabotage groups. This reinforced the view that a larger offensive was underway, nudging prices up to the high‑80s (≈88 % on Nov 16).
Ukrainian military refutes Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka city center
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
On November 25, Ukrainian officials denied Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka's city center, emphasizing ongoing fierce fighting and contested control. This tempered market enthusiasm but did not reverse the upward trend.
Russian forces intensify fighting on eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian milbloggers reported ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces heavily striking the city and its environs. This sustained pressure indicated operational-level efforts to degrade Ukrainian defenses ahead of a dedicated ground assault, supporting the rising market probability.
Russian forces confirmed entering Kostyantynivka and ongoing fighting on eastern outskirts
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
A Ukrainian drone platoon commander confirmed Russian forces have been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and engaging Ukrainian forces regularly. Russian milbloggers also reported ongoing fighting on the eastern outskirts, signaling increased Russian presence and pressure.
Russian forces actively engage and infiltrate Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
On November 25, a Ukrainian drone platoon commander reported ongoing Russian presence and engagements within Kostyantynivka, indicating that Russian forces had moved beyond small sabotage groups. This intensified perceptions of Russian operational capability in the area, pushing market prices higher.
Russian forces employ new offensive tactics in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Russian forces began using a new offensive template involving infiltration and battlefield air interdiction in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, setting conditions for a future dedicated effort to seize Kostyantynivka, supporting market optimism.
Ukraine thwarts Russian offensive, Kostyantynivka capture unlikely by year-end
December 31, 2026 drops to 77%11%
ISW report indicates Ukrainian forces successfully blunted Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russia experiencing its first net territorial loss since 2024, reducing market likelihood of Kostyantynivka capture.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near and within Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%13%
Russian forces attacked near and within Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements on November 22 and 23, indicating active and sustained offensive operations. These actions contributed to the market's rising confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces marginally advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
On November 22-23, Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and made marginal advances in the western outskirts of Ivanopillya, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This contributed to the market's rising confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russia claims capture of string of frontline settlements in eastern Ukraine
On November 22, 2025, Russia's Defence Ministry announced the capture of multiple frontline settlements in eastern Ukraine, reinforcing perceptions of Russian territorial gains near Kostyantynivka and boosting market expectations of eventual capture.
Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 1, wound dozens ahead of peace talks in Abu Dhabi
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
Russian drone attacks killed one person and wounded 31 in Kyiv and Kharkiv overnight, just before peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. began in Abu Dhabi. This attack on the negotiation table intensified market concern about stalled peace efforts.
Russian commander Medvedev claims plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Medvedev stated that Russian forces plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, signaling a strong operational intent. Putin downplayed deadlines but supported the narrative of confidence, boosting market optimism significantly.
Russian forces seize Ivanopillya southeast of Kostyantynivka; Medvedev plans capture by mid-December
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%12%
On November 21, geolocated footage confirmed Russian seizure of Ivanopillya, and Southern Grouping Commander Medvedev stated plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, boosting market confidence significantly.
Russian command plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%13%
On November 21, Russian Southern Grouping Commander Medvedev stated plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December, signaling a concrete timeline and boosting market confidence in eventual Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian commander claims partial control of Kostyantynivka, plans to seize most by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 91%41%
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces controlled eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and planned to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This statement increased market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian commander says Kostyantynivka will be taken by mid‑December 2025
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Medvedev publicly announced that Russian forces intended to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid‑December 2025, reinforcing market expectations that a capture before the end of 2026 was increasingly probable.
Russian Commander Claims Forces Entered Eastern Kostyantynivka with Plans to Seize Most of City by Mid-December
Russian Southern Grouping Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed troops had entered eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, aiming to capture most of the city by mid-December.
Russian commander claims plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025, signaling a strong Russian offensive intent that boosted market confidence.
Russian Commander Claims Seizure of Ivanopillya and Plans to Capture Kostyantynivka by Mid-December
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces seized Ivanopillya and planned to capture most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, signaling aggressive offensive timelines.
Medvedev says Russia will control most of Kostyantynivka by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
In the ISW‑released Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Medvedev said Russian forces had taken eastern and south‑eastern Kostyantynivka and planned to seize most of the city by mid‑December. The claim that Russian troops were already in the town and would soon capture it pushed the market sharply higher, lifting the “December 31, 2026” probability from roughly 50 % on 13 Nov to about 78 % on 14 Nov.
Russian Forces Seize Ivanopillya and Claim Infiltration of Southeastern Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed the Russian seizure of Ivanopillya, southeast of Kostyantynivka. Concurrently, Russian Southern Grouping Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed forces had entered eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka with plans to seize most of the city by mid-December.
Russian commander claims control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, plans to seize most by mid-December
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This official claim, despite limited independent confirmation, increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture, pushing prices higher.
Russian commander claims plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, signaling a strong Russian offensive intent and boosting market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian commander promises to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
ISW reported that Russian forces had only limited infiltration in southeastern Kostyantynivka, while Medvedev announced a plan to seize most of the city by mid‑December 2025. The contrast between modest ground reality and an ambitious Russian timetable boosted market confidence that Russia would eventually capture Kostyantynivka, pushing the "December 31 2026" outcome sharply higher (price rose from ~50 % on Nov 13 to ~88 % by Nov 16).
Russian commander Medvedev says most of Kostyantynivka will be taken by mid‑December 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
In the ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment – November 21, 2025”, Medvedev said Russian forces had taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and were clearing the centre, and announced a plan to seize most of the town by mid‑December 2025. The statement suggested a concrete timetable for capture, pushing the market higher for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian Southern Grouping Commander claims plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025, signaling confidence in imminent capture and influencing market optimism.
Russian commander Medvedev announces plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This official statement boosted market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian commander claims forces seize eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, plans to capture most by mid-December
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Sergei Medvedev stated Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plans to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025, directly influencing market expectations for capture timelines.
Russian commander Medvedev states plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%7%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev publicly announced Russian military plans to capture most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, signaling confidence in imminent success. This statement supported market optimism and contributed to price increases around November 21.
Russian Southern Grouping Commander announces plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%7%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces control eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This official statement likely increased market confidence in a near-term Russian capture, contributing to price rises.
Russian commander Medvedev claims plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025, signaling increased Russian confidence and operational momentum.
Russian commander Medvedev says forces have seized east Kostyantynivka and will take most by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
During the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment on 21 Nov 2025, Medvedev announced that Russian forces had taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and were clearing the city centre, adding that the Russian command intended to seize most of the city by mid‑December. The claim raised expectations that the railway‑station could fall soon, pushing the market price for the “December 31 2026” outcome from 50 % to 88 % between 13 Nov and 16 Nov.
Russian Commander Claims Forces Seized Ivanopillya and Entered Kostyantynivka Outskirts
December 31, 2026 surges to 90%40%
Russian Southern Grouping Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces took control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, aiming to seize most of the city by mid-December, while geolocated footage confirmed the capture of nearby Ivanopillya.
Russian commander claims Russian forces seize eastern Kostyantynivka and plan to capture most by mid-December
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Medvedev announced Russian control of eastern/southeastern Kostyantynivka and a mid-December seizure plan, boosting market confidence in Russian capture timeline.
Russian commander Medvedev says Kostyantynivka will be taken by mid‑December 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
ISW reported that Lt. Gen. Medvedev said Russian command plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid‑December 2025. The statement signalled an imminent large‑scale assault, pushing market participants to raise the probability that Russia would capture the city by the end of 2026, especially the December 31, 2026 option.
Russian military command plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%8%
On November 21, Russian Southern Grouping Commander Medvedev stated plans to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December 2025, with Russian forces making advances in the area including seizing Ivanopillya. This bolstered market confidence, pushing prices from 82% to 90%.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Forces Seize Ivanopillya Southeast of Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces seized Ivanopillya, a key tactical settlement located directly southeast of Kostyantynivka, facilitating further advances toward the city.
Russian commander Medvedev claims control of eastern Kostyantynivka, plans to seize most by mid-December
December 31, 2026 jumps to 90%8%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated Russian forces control eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This official statement increased market confidence significantly.
Russian commander announces plan to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid-December
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev stated that Russian forces have taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and plan to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. This official statement increased market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian commander pledges to seize most of Kostyantynivka by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 83%33%
In the ISW November‑21 assessment Lt. Gen. Sergei Medvedev said Russian forces had taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and were clearing the centre, and announced the plan to seize most of the city by mid‑December. The explicit deadline pushed traders to price‑in a high probability of capture before year‑end, lifting the market to the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian Commander Sergei Medvedev Claims Plans to Seize Most of Kostyantynivka by Mid-December
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed that Russian forces had taken control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and planned to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025, signaling aggressive offensive intent.
Russian Commander Claims Advances in Kostyantynivka and Plans for Rapid Seizure
Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed Russian forces took control of eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka, planning to seize most of the city by mid-December 2025. Concurrently, geolocated footage confirmed the Russian seizure of nearby Ivanopillya.
Russian Forces Seize Ivanopillya as Commander Claims Plans to Capture Most of Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage confirmed the Russian seizure of Ivanopillya, southeast of Kostyantynivka, while Russian Commander Sergei Medvedev claimed plans to seize most of the city by mid-December.
Zelensky signals openness to a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%1%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s willingness to consider a demilitarized zone was reported, suggesting possible concessions but also highlighting ongoing negotiations that kept the front‑line fluid, sustaining market optimism for Russian advances.
Russia reports drone strike kills 28 in Kherson region
Russian authorities claimed a Ukrainian drone strike on a cafe and hotel in occupied Kherson killed 28, including minors, while Ukraine denied attacking civilians, escalating tensions and keeping the market high.
Putin visits frontline command post, hears reports of advances in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%13%
On November 20, Putin visited a command post where military leadership reported advances in Kostyantynivka. This high-level endorsement of progress likely influenced market optimism about Russian capture prospects.
Putin visits Zapad command post; Gerasimov reports advances in Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
Russian military leadership reported to President Putin that troops were advancing in Kostyantynivka, signaling high-level confidence in progress. Ukrainian forces denied Russian claims of capturing the city center, but the report supported market optimism about Russian gains.
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Reports Advances in Siversk and Kostyantynivka to Putin
Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov briefed President Vladimir Putin on active Russian advances in Siversk and Kostyantynivka, signaling a high-level military focus on these key logistics hubs.
U.S. envoys meet with Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi for peace talks
Peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. began in Abu Dhabi, marking a significant diplomatic step despite ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Ukrainian military refutes Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka city center
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Ukrainian commanders publicly denied Russian claims of capturing the city center, emphasizing ongoing intense fighting and Ukrainian control despite destruction. This introduced some uncertainty but did not significantly reverse market gains, as fighting continued.
Ukrainian military refutes Russian claim of taking Kostyantynivka centre
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
UAWire published Ukraine’s refutation of Russian claims that they had captured Kostyantynivka’s centre, while Russian leadership officially announced “advancing in … Kostyantynivka.” The contradiction heightened expectations of a possible capture before year‑end, pushing the market further toward the December 31 2026 outcome.
US and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
The US and Russia agreed to restore military communication channels for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential easing of tensions but also acknowledging ongoing hostilities. This development coincided with continued fighting and influenced market confidence in Russia's ability to sustain its offensive operations, supporting the price rise to 88%.
Car bomb kills Russian General Fanil Sarvarov in Moscow
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
The assassination of a senior Russian officer raised concerns about Ukrainian sabotage but also highlighted Russia’s resolve to retaliate, prompting traders to bet on a hardening Russian stance and a likely capture of Kostyantynivka.
US-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks resume amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
New rounds of US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resumed in Abu Dhabi, but fighting and missile attacks continued. The talks' complexity and unresolved territorial issues, especially in eastern Ukraine, kept market expectations high for a Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, Ukraine suspected
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%1%
The assassination of a senior Russian general in Moscow, attributed to Ukrainian intelligence, highlighted Ukraine's capability to strike high-value targets, but also underscored the ongoing intensity of the conflict, supporting the market's rising confidence in Russian territorial gains.
Russian drone attacks kill at least 12 in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%12%
A deadly Russian drone strike on a bus in Dnipro killed at least 12 people, demonstrating ongoing Russian military aggression despite peace negotiations. This likely reinforced market expectations of continued Russian advances, pushing the probability higher.
Moscow court orders Euroclear to pay Russia's central bank billions in compensation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
The court ruling promised Russia a massive financial windfall, reinforcing expectations that Moscow could fund continued offensives, including a push on Kostyantynivka, driving the market up.
US and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue amid Ukraine talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%6%
The resumption of military dialogue between the US and Russia indicated a warming in relations and a potential pathway to peace, which influenced market perceptions of the conflict's resolution timeline.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka and intensify attacks in surrounding areas
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Geolocated footage and reports indicated Russian advances north and around Kostyantynivka with ongoing attacks on multiple fronts, signaling the start of intensified efforts to capture the city. This increased military activity likely caused the market price to jump from 50% to 89% between November 13 and 18, 2025.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials meet in Berlin for peace talks
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Ukrainian officials held talks in Berlin, with Witkoff reporting 'a lot of progress was made,' boosting market sentiment.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%12%
A Russian drone attack on Dnipro killed at least a dozen people, demonstrating ongoing Russian military aggression despite peace negotiations. This attack underscored the persistent conflict risk, pushing the market price for December 31, 2026 outcome higher from 76% to 88%.
Russian forces advance north of Kleban-Byk near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%6%
On November 15, geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing north of Kleban-Byk, south of Kostyantynivka, reinforcing the perception of steady Russian progress in the tactical area and supporting the market's upward price movement.
Zelenskyy appoints Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff amid critical war phase
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%12%
Ukraine’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, was named chief of staff by President Zelenskyy, signaling a shift to prioritize defense and intelligence at a critical moment, which may have influenced market perceptions of Ukraine’s resilience and the conflict’s trajectory.
Russian drone strike in Dnipro kills at least 12 mineworkers on bus
December 31, 2026 jumps to 87%11%
A Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro killed at least 12 people, injuring several others and sparking a fire. This terrorist-style attack increased market concern about ongoing Russian aggression.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, Ukraine suspected
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow, with investigators considering Ukrainian intelligence involvement. This event underscored the ongoing covert conflict and pressure on Russian military leadership, influencing perceptions of the war's intensity and Russia's determination to consolidate control in contested areas like Kostyantynivka.
Trump says Ukraine is holding up peace deal as Kremlin agrees
December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%6%
Trump claimed Ukraine President Zelenskyy is obstructing peace talks, a position the Kremlin later confirmed, causing market volatility as European officials criticized Russia's stance.
Ukrainian forces advance near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing clashes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%6%
Ukrainian advances in central Stupochky and north of Kostyantynivka were reported on November 14, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting. Despite Ukrainian gains, Russian attacks persisted, maintaining market uncertainty but supporting a higher probability of eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka amid ongoing fighting
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka and its environs on November 14-15, engaging Ukrainian forces in heavy combat. This escalation increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture, reflected in a sharp price rise from 50% to 77%.
Ukrainian drones document reinforced Russian assault near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Ukrainian drone footage released on 14 Nov showed a reinforced, company‑size Russian mechanised assault near Volodymyrivka, east of Kostyantynivka, with the unit claiming the destruction of 11 heavily armoured vehicles. The report signalled that Russian forces were shifting from small‑scale infiltrations to a larger, coordinated push toward the town, prompting traders to raise the probability that Russia would capture Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russia reports territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
The Kremlin released a video showing military officials reporting the capture of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole, signaling continued Russian momentum on the battlefield.
Russian forces intensify attacks in eastern Ukraine amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Russian military escalated offensives in the Donetsk region, including areas near Kostyantynivka, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This heightened military activity raised market expectations of a Russian capture by the end of 2026, reflected in a sharp price jump from 50% to 77%.
U.S.-European coalition meeting in Paris advances Ukraine defense guarantees
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%12%
Leaders from 27 European countries and Canada, plus U.S. representatives, discussed providing international security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached, signaling strong Western commitment to deter Russian aggression.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations near Kostyantynivka without confirmed advances
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area near Kostyantynivka, with first-person view drone strikes reported, but no confirmed territorial gains. This marked the start of increased military activity in the area, contributing to a sharp market price rise from 50% to 76%.
Russian forces begin concerted efforts to seize Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russian forces initiated focused offensive operations against Kostyantynivka in October 2025, with reports in mid-November indicating ongoing fighting and infiltration missions within the city, signaling a serious push that increased market confidence.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, setting stage for winter offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Russian forces attacked in and around Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements, with Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers claiming these advances would enable a winter offensive. This signaled a serious Russian operational focus on Kostyantynivka, boosting market confidence in eventual capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian military intensifies attacks in eastern Ukraine amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Reports emerged that Russian forces significantly increased artillery barrages and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine, aiming to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground offensives. This escalation raised expectations of Russian territorial gains, including the potential capture of Kostyantynivka, driving the market price from 50% to 82%.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka, setting conditions for winter offensive
On November 13, 2025, Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers reported Russian advances near Kleban-Byk and multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, signaling preparations for a winter offensive. This news increased market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces launch attacks near Kostyantynivka and claim advances
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Kostyantynivka and claimed advances south of Markove, signaling the start of intensified operations in the area. This led to a sharp market price increase from 50% to 77% on November 14, reflecting increased confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Ukraine’s allies report major progress on defense guarantees in Paris meeting
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
On November 13, 2025, Ukraine’s allies announced significant progress toward providing multilayered security guarantees to Ukraine if a peace deal with Russia is reached. This bolstered confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities but also underscored the ongoing conflict, influencing market expectations about the timeline of territorial changes such as Kostyantynivka's capture.
Russian forces intensify infiltration and fighting in Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Reports emerged that Russian forces had been entering Kostyantynivka since mid-October and were engaging Ukrainian forces regularly, with fighting ongoing on the eastern outskirts. This indicated a significant escalation in Russian efforts to seize the city, driving the market price sharply upward from 50% to 77%.
Kremlin agrees with Trump that Ukraine is stalling peace deal
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
The Kremlin publicly agreed with former U.S. President Trump that Ukraine was holding up peace negotiations, signaling Moscow's confidence in continuing military efforts. This statement likely increased market confidence in Russia's eventual capture of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026.
Russian army captures three settlements in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
On November 13, 2025, the Russian army overran three settlements in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region, signaling continued Russian advances in the area near Kostyantynivka. This military progress increased market confidence that Russia would eventually capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy appoints Gen. Kyrylo Budanov as new chief of staff
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Zelenskyy's appointment of the head of military intelligence as chief of staff signaled a strategic shift prioritizing defense and security amid critical peace negotiations, impacting market confidence in the conflict's trajectory.
Major progress reported in Ukraine peace talks in Berlin
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Berlin, with officials reporting "a lot of progress" in peace talks. This diplomatic momentum increased market confidence in eventual resolution scenarios involving territorial concessions, boosting the December 31, 2026 outcome price from 50% to 82%.
Clashes intensify near Kostyantynivka with multiple engagements reported
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
On November 13, heavy fighting occurred near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, with Russian forces attacking multiple directions but without decisive gains. This increased market perception of ongoing conflict intensity around the city.
Russian milblogger claims advances near Kleban-Byk set stage for Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that recent advances near Kleban-Byk would enable a Russian offensive against Kostyantynivka in Winter 2025-2026, aligning with reports that Russia would prioritize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before focusing on Kostyantynivka. This raised market confidence in eventual capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces launch fresh assaults near Kostyantynivka, signal winter offensive plans
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Critical Threats' assessment reported a wave of Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka and a Kremlin‑affiliated milblogger warned that recent gains near Kleban‑Byk were setting the stage for a winter offensive against the city, suggesting a heightened likelihood of a capture before year‑end.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Kostyantynivka, setting stage for winter offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, with milbloggers indicating preparations for a winter offensive to seize the city after prioritizing Pokrovsk. This escalation increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian Forces Advance Near Kleban-Byk Setting Conditions for Winter Offensive Against Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that recent advances near Kleban-Byk would set conditions for a winter offensive against Kostyantynivka, signaling that Russia is preparing for a concerted effort to seize the city.
Russian forces intensify attacks and advance near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
On November 13, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and its surroundings, with geolocated footage confirming advances south of Markove. Russian milbloggers claimed clearing operations and contested zones nearby, signaling increased offensive pressure in the area, which sharply raised market confidence.
Russian forces intensify offensive near Kostyantynivka with infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kostyantynivka, employing small-group infiltration tactics and attacks on motorcycles, advancing in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. This escalation increased market confidence in a future Russian capture.
Clashes reported near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Ukrainian General Staff reported clashes near Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, indicating active and intense fighting in the area. This confirmed ongoing Russian attempts to advance, raising market confidence in eventual capture.
Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claims conditions set for Russian offensive on Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported advances near Kleban-Byk that would enable a Russian offensive against Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026, aligning with reports that Russia would prioritize completing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before focusing on Kostyantynivka. This news likely triggered the initial sharp market price increase from 50% to 88%.
Russian forces initiate offensive preparations near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian forces launched attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, setting conditions for a winter offensive in 2025-2026. This marked the start of intensified Russian efforts, causing the market price to jump from 50% to 89% within days.
Russian forces prepare offensive on Kostyantynivka following Pokrovsk scenario
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian troops attempted to replicate their successful Pokrovsk offensive strategy for Kostyantynivka, with reports of recent advances near Kleban-Byk setting conditions for a winter 2025-2026 offensive. This marked a significant escalation in Russian efforts, causing the market probability to jump from 50% to 89%.
Russian President Putin claims advances in eastern Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Putin publicly stated that Russian troops are advancing in the eastern Donetsk region and preparing to expand buffer zones along the Russian border, signaling increased military momentum that likely boosted market confidence in Russian capture of Kostyantynivka.
Russian forces continue infiltration and attacks near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
On November 13, reports indicated Russian forces employing small-group infiltration tactics and attacks near Kostyantynivka, with ongoing advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. This signaled persistent Russian pressure and contributed to a sharp market price increase from 50% to 82%.
Russian Forces Advance Near Ivanopillya and Set Conditions for Winter Offensive Against Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Russian forces advanced south of Kostyantynivka near Ivanopillya and cleared the Kleban-Byk reservoir area, setting tactical conditions for a winter offensive against the city.
Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claims advances near Kleban-Byk set stage for Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger stated that recent advances near Kleban-Byk would enable Russian forces to launch an offensive against Kostyantynivka in Winter 2025-2026, aligning with reports that Russia would prioritize capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad first. This news increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces prepare offensive against Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed recent advances near Kleban-Byk set conditions for a Russian offensive against Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026, signaling increased Russian focus on capturing the city. This news triggered a sharp market price jump from 50% to 88%.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Kostyantynivka and prepare for winter offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas on November 12 and 13, with milbloggers claiming advances near Kleban-Byk, setting conditions for a winter offensive. This indicated a buildup toward a concerted effort to seize Kostyantynivka, increasing market confidence.
Russian forces launch attacks around Kostyantynivka and advance near Ivanopillya
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka, including advances south of Markove and near Ivanopillya, signaling increased offensive operations in the area. This contributed to a sharp market price increase from 50% to 76%.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 in Dnipro as peace talks announced
December 31, 2026 surges to 94%44%
A Russian drone attack on a bus carrying mineworkers in Dnipro killed at least 12 people, prompting President Zelenskyy to announce upcoming peace talks. This attack caused significant market volatility and increased concern about ongoing Russian aggression.
Russian forces infiltrate Kostyantynivka outskirts initiating offensive operations
December 31, 2026 surges to 90%40%
Russian forces first infiltrated the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka in October 2025 and began offensive operations, marking the start of a prolonged battle for control. This initial infiltration raised market expectations for eventual Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Milblogger says 186th Motorized Rifle Regiment moved to Kostyantynivka area
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
A milblogger reported redeployment of elements of the depleted 186th Motorized Rifle Regiment to the 29th Combined Arms Army’s area of responsibility near Kostyantynivka in November. The news of fresh troops being shifted to the sector triggered the largest one‑day jump (+26 pts) from 50 % to 76 % on 13‑14 Nov, signalling market belief that the transfer would accelerate the city’s fall.
Russian advances near Kleban-Byk set stage for Kostyantynivka offensive in winter 2025-2026
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that recent Russian advances near Kleban-Byk would enable a winter offensive against Kostyantynivka, aligning with plans to prioritize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before seizing Kostyantynivka. This news increased market confidence in a future Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Russian forces advance in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area amid infiltration tactics
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, reports indicated Russian forces employing small-group infiltration tactics and advancing in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area, setting conditions for a future offensive against Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026. This news triggered a significant market price jump from 50% to 76%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
On November 13, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Kostyantynivka and adjacent settlements, signaling increased offensive efforts. This escalation likely contributed to the initial sharp market price increase from 50% to 82%.
Russian forces advance near Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 12-13, Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Kostyantynivka, including Predtechyne, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Pleshchiivka, with geolocated footage confirming advances south of Markove. This indicated intensifying Russian efforts to encircle and capture Kostyantynivka, boosting market confidence in a December 31, 2026 capture.
Russian forces intensify operations near Kostyantynivka, setting stage for winter offensive
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances near key areas south and southeast of Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces continuing to clear nearby zones and preparing for a winter offensive. This indicated a buildup of pressure on Kostyantynivka, raising market confidence from 50% to 76%.
Russian troops penetrate Kostyantynivka, settle in southeastern residential area
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Ukrainian officer reports Russian foot soldiers have settled in a private residential zone of Kostyantynivka, indicating potential for fighting to move into the city.
Zelenskyy appoints Kyrylo Budanov as Ukraine’s new chief of staff amid critical war phase
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
On November 13, 2025, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy named Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, as his new chief of staff. This appointment signaled a strategic shift prioritizing defense and security during intensified conflict and peace negotiations, boosting market confidence in Ukraine’s organized resistance and influencing the perceived timeline for Russian territorial gains.
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russia announced the active service deployment of its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, signaling military strength and resolve as peace talks with Ukraine and the U.S. were underway. This bolstered market confidence in Russia's capability and intent to secure territorial gains, including Kostyantynivka, by the end of 2026.
Russian forces intensify efforts to seize Kostyantynivka starting October 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russian forces began dedicated efforts to capture Kostyantynivka in October 2025, with ongoing fighting and infiltration missions reported by November 13, signaling a new phase of offensive operations that drove market confidence from 50% to 88%.
ISW reports new Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka on Nov 13 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
ISW’s November 13 assessment reported fresh Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka and a widening of the front, indicating a renewed Russian push toward the city. Traders interpreted the intensified fighting as a strong signal that Russian forces were closing in, driving the market up from 50 % to 88 % in just a few days.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates maximalist war aims including Ukraine's capitulation
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Lavrov's public statements on November 13 reaffirmed Russia's uncompromising war objectives, signaling continued military pressure including on Kostyantynivka, which contributed to initial market price rise from 50%.
Russian milbloggers claim advances near Kleban-Byk set stage for winter offensive on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
On November 13, Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers claimed recent advances near Kleban-Byk would enable a Russian offensive against Kostyantynivka in winter 2025-2026, consistent with reports that Russia would prioritize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before Kostyantynivka. This news likely triggered the initial sharp price rise from 50% to 76%.
Russian forces advance south of Markove near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
Geolocated footage published on November 13 showed Russian forces advancing south of Markove, northeast of Kostyantynivka, setting conditions for future offensives. This early November advance contributed to initial market confidence, raising the price from 50%.
Russian forces launch intensified artillery barrage on Donbas, targeting supply lines near Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Ukrainian officials reported a sudden escalation of Russian artillery and drone strikes around Kostyantynivka, suggesting a concerted effort to encircle the town. The heightened combat activity coincided with the market’s biggest one‑day jump, pushing odds sharply upward.
Russian forces prepare offensive near Kostyantynivka with multiple attacks reported
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed advances near Kleban-Byk would enable a winter offensive against Kostyantynivka, with Russian forces attacking multiple locations around the city on November 12-13. This signaled a serious Russian effort to capture Kostyantynivka, causing a sharp market price increase from 50% to 88%.
Russian forces resume attacks around Kostyantynivka, milblogger confirms fighting on eastern outskirts
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
The ISW assessment for 13 Nov 2025 reported fresh Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka, including north‑east advances near Markove and Mayske, and a Russian milblogger confirming fighting on the city’s eastern outskirts. The news signaled a renewed push, driving the market from 50 % to about 76 % “Yes”.
Russian forces launch offensive near Kostyantynivka, setting conditions for winter assault
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported advances near Kleban-Byk and multiple attacks around Kostyantynivka, indicating preparations for a winter offensive. This news significantly increased market confidence in Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.
Russian President Putin warns of extending gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%27%
Putin publicly stated that Russia would seek to expand its territorial control in Ukraine if peace negotiations do not succeed, signaling a commitment to military advances. This statement likely increased market expectations of Russian territorial gains, including Kostyantynivka, by the end of 2026.
Moscow court orders Euroclear to pay Russia's central bank compensation for frozen assets
December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
The Arbitration Court in Moscow ruled that Euroclear must compensate the Russian Central Bank for losses from frozen assets, indicating Russia’s ability to recover billions and sustain its war effort, which boosted confidence in a Russian advance on Kostyantynivka.
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