**Québec Solidaire (QS) enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in Montreal ridings.** Recent polling aggregates (Léger, Synopsis) place the party at roughly 8–16% provincially, yet seat models from 338Canada and others project 3–11 seats (median near 5–9), with multiple Montreal districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Taschereau, and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve rated safe or leaning QS. The campaign, launched August 27 after Premier Christine Fréchette dissolved the legislature, has not produced developments that would eliminate QS’s core urban base. Even lower-range simulations leave the party with several seats, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward localized strength over province-wide vote share. Traders price the “Yes” outcome at 71.5% because historical patterns and current riding-level forecasts indicate QS is highly likely to retain at least one seat.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
90% संभावना
नया
नया
5 अक्टू, 2026
हाँ
90% संभावना
नया
नया
5 अक्टू, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire (QS) enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in Montreal ridings.** Recent polling aggregates (Léger, Synopsis) place the party at roughly 8–16% provincially, yet seat models from 338Canada and others project 3–11 seats (median near 5–9), with multiple Montreal districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Taschereau, and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve rated safe or leaning QS.
The campaign, launched August 27 after Premier Christine Fréchette dissolved the legislature, has not produced developments that would eliminate QS’s core urban base. Even lower-range simulations leave the party with several seats, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward localized strength over province-wide vote share. Traders price the “Yes” outcome at 71.5% because historical patterns and current riding-level forecasts indicate QS is highly likely to retain at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$401समाप्ति तिथि
5 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire (QS) enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in Montreal ridings.** Recent polling aggregates (Léger, Synopsis) place the party at roughly 8–16% provincially, yet seat models from 338Canada and others project 3–11 seats (median near 5–9), with multiple Montreal districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Taschereau, and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve rated safe or leaning QS.
The campaign, launched August 27 after Premier Christine Fréchette dissolved the legislature, has not produced developments that would eliminate QS’s core urban base. Even lower-range simulations leave the party with several seats, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward localized strength over province-wide vote share. Traders price the “Yes” outcome at 71.5% because historical patterns and current riding-level forecasts indicate QS is highly likely to retain at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
वॉल्यूम
$401समाप्ति तिथि
5 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**Québec Solidaire (QS) enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in Montreal ridings.** Recent polling aggregates (Léger, Synopsis) place the party at roughly 8–16% provincially, yet seat models from 338Canada and others project 3–11 seats (median near 5–9), with multiple Montreal districts such as Gouin, Mercier, Taschereau, and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve rated safe or leaning QS. The campaign, launched August 27 after Premier Christine Fréchette dissolved the legislature, has not produced developments that would eliminate QS’s core urban base. Even lower-range simulations leave the party with several seats, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward localized strength over province-wide vote share. Traders price the “Yes” outcome at 71.5% because historical patterns and current riding-level forecasts indicate QS is highly likely to retain at least one seat.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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