North Korea’s “two hostile states” policy, fortified border defenses, and recent ballistic missile launches reflect a deterrence posture rather than preparations for large-scale offensive action against South Korea. Trader consensus at 96.8 percent “No” stems from the strong U.S.-ROK alliance commitments, ongoing joint exercises, extended deterrence arrangements, and Pyongyang’s deepening military-economic ties with Russia and China, all of which raise the costs of invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s diplomatic outreach further supports the status quo. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these structural barriers dominate assessments. Low-probability shifts could still arise from border miscalculations, drill-related incidents, or opportunistic moves amid broader regional distractions.