María Corina Machado has remained in exile since December 2025, when she departed Venezuela covertly via irregular maritime routes to accept the Nobel Peace Prize in Norway after months in hiding. She publicly stated in May 2026 her intention to return before year-end and contest the presidency again, citing ongoing opposition leadership and popular support despite a decade-old travel ban and regime restrictions. Recent factors include June 2026 earthquakes that prompted discussions of reentry, alongside the Maduro government's continued control over borders, security forces, and political eligibility rules. Traders price near-term outcomes such as entry by late July or August at low single digits, reflecting barriers like arrest risk, lack of formal safe passage, and absence of confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs, while longer-term resolution windows through December 2026 incorporate potential shifts from international pressure or domestic developments.