As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अटलांटिक में पहला तूफ़ान कब बनेगा?
2026 में अटलांटिक में पहला तूफ़ान कब बनेगा?
26 सितंबर से 30 सितंबर, 2026 32%
21 सितंबर से 25 सितंबर, 2026 31%
सितंबर 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफ़ान नहीं बनेगा 24%
1 सितंबर से 10 सितंबर, 2026 9%
नया
नया
10 सित, 2026
1 सितंबर से 10 सितंबर, 2026
9%
11 सितंबर से 15 सितंबर, 2026
7%
16 सितंबर से 20 सितंबर, 2026
7%
21 सितंबर से 25 सितंबर, 2026
31%
26 सितंबर से 30 सितंबर, 2026
32%
सितंबर 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफ़ान नहीं बनेगा
24%
26 सितंबर से 30 सितंबर, 2026 32%
21 सितंबर से 25 सितंबर, 2026 31%
सितंबर 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफ़ान नहीं बनेगा 24%
1 सितंबर से 10 सितंबर, 2026 9%
नया
नया
10 सित, 2026
1 सितंबर से 10 सितंबर, 2026
$28 वॉल्यूम
9%
11 सितंबर से 15 सितंबर, 2026
$83 वॉल्यूम
7%
16 सितंबर से 20 सितंबर, 2026
$323 वॉल्यूम
7%
21 सितंबर से 25 सितंबर, 2026
$0 वॉल्यूम
31%
26 सितंबर से 30 सितंबर, 2026
$0 वॉल्यूम
32%
सितंबर 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफ़ान नहीं बनेगा
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$435समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
वॉल्यूम
$435समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...As of early September 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced five named tropical storms but zero hurricanes, far below the climatological average first-hurricane date near August 11. Persistent El Niño conditions are elevating vertical wind shear across the main development region while promoting drier mid-level air, both of which strongly suppress intensification of tropical cyclones into hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph). The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook indicates no formation expected in the next seven days, keeping near-term probabilities low. Trader consensus around late-September formation or none in September reflects this ongoing suppression, tempered by uncertainty over whether a late-season wave could organize before October amid diverging model guidance on shear trends.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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