US federal authorities indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro in May 2026 over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft, prompting Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to denounce the move as politically motivated and lacking legal basis. This action aligns with intensified US pressure on Cuba under the current administration, including sanctions targeting regime figures and broader DOJ scrutiny of Cuban officials. No charges have been filed against Díaz-Canel himself, though his central role in the government and public condemnation of the Castro indictment keep him in focus for potential future enforcement actions. Traders weigh historical patterns of sanctions and indictments against Cuba alongside the absence of direct evidence or announcements targeting the sitting president, with any escalation likely tied to diplomatic or legislative developments in the coming months.