OpenAI’s public development roadmap and absence of any AGI claim through mid-2026 anchor the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. CEO Sam Altman has outlined targets for AI research assistants by late 2026 and fully autonomous systems only in 2028, consistent with continued scaling of large language models rather than a sudden leap to artificial general intelligence capable of matching or exceeding human performance across domains. Recent model releases show incremental gains in reasoning and tool use but no demonstrated capabilities meeting standard AGI benchmarks. While an unforeseen compute breakthrough or narrowed internal definition could still prompt an early declaration, current evidence and leadership statements point to sustained incremental progress instead.