**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to overnight lows of 24–27°C on August 25 in the Seoul-Incheon area, with 25–26°C as the most likely range.** This aligns closely with current market-implied probabilities, where 26°C leads at 47.5% and 25°C follows at 32%. Persistent high humidity (dew points near 24–26°C) and partly cloudy skies limit nocturnal radiative cooling, a common late-summer pattern in the region influenced by residual monsoon moisture and southwesterly flow. Official guidance from sources like the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models (GFS, ECMWF) shows minimal overnight drops, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to historical August averages around 22°C. Light winds and scattered showers or drizzle on the 24th–25th further stabilize the boundary layer, reducing the chance of sharper cooling. Recent surface observations confirm this setup, with no strong frontal passages or clear-sky radiative events expected before the 25th. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting trader focus on the narrow 25–26°C band while assigning lower odds to outliers below 24°C or above 27°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in cloud cover or moisture transport over the next 48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.