Recent forecast guidance from European and global models indicates a frontal passage and associated low-pressure system arriving overnight into August 25, promoting increased cloud cover and light winds that limit radiational cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustered near the historical late-August average of 17–19 °C at Milan’s urban stations, while clear-sky scenarios under high pressure could allow stronger nocturnal cooling toward 14–16 °C. Conversely, residual warmth and higher dew points from the preceding Po Valley heat pattern raise the chance of readings at or above 20 °C if mixing persists. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture creates the evenly matched market-implied probabilities across the 14–24 °C brackets, with new 00Z and 12Z runs from ECMWF and GFS expected to refine the overnight minimum ahead of resolution.