Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for overnight radiative cooling drives the closely matched probabilities across temperature thresholds in this Buenos Aires market. Current forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate project a minimum near 8–11°C on August 25, consistent with typical August climatology of 7–10°C lows moderated by the Río de la Plata. However, recent polar air intrusions that produced a 0°C reading on August 22 highlight potential for colder advection if a stronger southerly flow develops, while persistent cloud cover or stronger winds could limit cooling and push readings above 12°C. Model spreads on boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any frontal passage create the balanced trader sentiment between extremes and mid-range outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.