Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाKY -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
KY -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$34,317 वॉल्यूम
$34,317 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
8%
$34,317 वॉल्यूम
$34,317 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$24,877 वॉल्यूम
93%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$9,440 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,317समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$34,317समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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