Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including interim agreements following 2025 military strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, represent the central driver of trader assessments on near-term IAEA access. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under such frameworks to restore safeguards verification and address continuity-of-knowledge gaps, particularly at Isfahan where satellite imagery showed vehicular activity around tunnels storing highly enriched uranium in early 2026. Iran has conditioned full resumption at the affected sites on completion of a final accord, leading to delays since inspectors withdrew after the strikes and limited cooperation resumed only at undamaged locations like Bushehr. Satellite monitoring indicates no large-scale reconstruction at the three sites through mid-2026, while upcoming talks and any Board of Governors resolutions could determine whether verification visits materialize before key deadlines.