Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and a robust 162,000 August payrolls print have pushed market-implied odds for one or two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 to near parity at 42.5% and 40.5%, respectively. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor market conditions and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, have shifted trader consensus from earlier expectations of holds toward modest tightening. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where futures price an 80-90% chance of a hike, represents the primary near-term catalyst, while subsequent data on inflation trajectories and employment will determine whether a second move materializes later in the year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
2 (50 bps) 41%
0 (0 bps) 10%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 8.1%
$375,551 वॉल्यूम
$375,551 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
10%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
41%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
8%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
2 (50 bps) 41%
0 (0 bps) 10%
3 (75 बीपीएस) 8.1%
$375,551 वॉल्यूम
$375,551 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$124,257 वॉल्यूम
10%
1 (25 bps)
$62,922 वॉल्यूम
43%
2 (50 bps)
$88,630 वॉल्यूम
41%
3 (75 बीपीएस)
$45,271 वॉल्यूम
8%
4 (100 bps)
$28,412 वॉल्यूम
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$26,060 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and a robust 162,000 August payrolls print have pushed market-implied odds for one or two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 to near parity at 42.5% and 40.5%, respectively. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor market conditions and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, have shifted trader consensus from earlier expectations of holds toward modest tightening. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where futures price an 80-90% chance of a hike, represents the primary near-term catalyst, while subsequent data on inflation trajectories and employment will determine whether a second move materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$375,551समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and a robust 162,000 August payrolls print have pushed market-implied odds for one or two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 to near parity at 42.5% and 40.5%, respectively. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor market conditions and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, have shifted trader consensus from earlier expectations of holds toward modest tightening. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where futures price an 80-90% chance of a hike, represents the primary near-term catalyst, while subsequent data on inflation trajectories and employment will determine whether a second move materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
वॉल्यूम
$375,551समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and a robust 162,000 August payrolls print have pushed market-implied odds for one or two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 to near parity at 42.5% and 40.5%, respectively. Persistent core inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor market conditions and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications, have shifted trader consensus from earlier expectations of holds toward modest tightening. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where futures price an 80-90% chance of a hike, represents the primary near-term catalyst, while subsequent data on inflation trajectories and employment will determine whether a second move materializes later in the year.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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