**The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.97% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from earlier 2026 lows amid a broad bond selloff.** Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—exacerbated by oil price spikes and recent hotter-than-expected PPI and core CPI prints—has driven market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike above 70-90%. This repricing of a higher-for-longer policy path, combined with an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, has lifted yields roughly 80-90 basis points since February lows. Traders are watching the upcoming FOMC decision, retail sales, and subsequent labor and inflation releases for signs of whether short-rate expectations stabilize or ease, which would determine how far yields can retrace before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$254,912 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
3.9% से नीचे
13%
3.8% से नीचे
15%
3.7% से नीचे
13%
3.6% से नीचे
5%
3.5% से नीचे
5%
3.0% से नीचे
4%
2.0% से नीचे
2%
1.0% से नीचे
2%
$254,912 वॉल्यूम
3.9% से नीचे
$50,563 वॉल्यूम
13%
3.8% से नीचे
$54,379 वॉल्यूम
15%
3.7% से नीचे
$30,351 वॉल्यूम
13%
3.6% से नीचे
$6,185 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.5% से नीचे
$39,352 वॉल्यूम
5%
3.0% से नीचे
$1,187 वॉल्यूम
4%
2.0% से नीचे
$564 वॉल्यूम
2%
1.0% से नीचे
$40,572 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).**The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.97% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from earlier 2026 lows amid a broad bond selloff.** Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—exacerbated by oil price spikes and recent hotter-than-expected PPI and core CPI prints—has driven market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike above 70-90%. This repricing of a higher-for-longer policy path, combined with an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, has lifted yields roughly 80-90 basis points since February lows. Traders are watching the upcoming FOMC decision, retail sales, and subsequent labor and inflation releases for signs of whether short-rate expectations stabilize or ease, which would determine how far yields can retrace before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$254,912समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).**The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.97% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from earlier 2026 lows amid a broad bond selloff.** Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—exacerbated by oil price spikes and recent hotter-than-expected PPI and core CPI prints—has driven market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike above 70-90%. This repricing of a higher-for-longer policy path, combined with an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, has lifted yields roughly 80-90 basis points since February lows. Traders are watching the upcoming FOMC decision, retail sales, and subsequent labor and inflation releases for signs of whether short-rate expectations stabilize or ease, which would determine how far yields can retrace before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
वॉल्यूम
$254,912समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.97% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from earlier 2026 lows amid a broad bond selloff.** Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—exacerbated by oil price spikes and recent hotter-than-expected PPI and core CPI prints—has driven market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike above 70-90%. This repricing of a higher-for-longer policy path, combined with an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, has lifted yields roughly 80-90 basis points since February lows. Traders are watching the upcoming FOMC decision, retail sales, and subsequent labor and inflation releases for signs of whether short-rate expectations stabilize or ease, which would determine how far yields can retrace before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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