**Persistent inflation pressures, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, are anchoring market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting near 55.5%.** August CPI data released September 11 showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, with core CPI at 2.4% and energy components contributing significantly to the upside surprise. This follows the Fed’s June 2026 dot plot revisions, which lifted the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% and erased prior expectations for cuts, reflecting concerns over durable inflation above the 2% target. Recent communications from officials, including signals of data-dependent tightening, combined with analyst forecasts such as J.P. Morgan’s call for a December hike, have shifted trader sentiment toward modest policy firming. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for one 25 bp adjustment while still allowing for a hold if incoming data moderates. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC decision and October CPI release, which could refine probabilities ahead of the December meeting. These odds reflect aggregated trader positioning based on real capital at risk rather than certainty about future policy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया25 bps increase 56%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
$686,629 वॉल्यूम
$686,629 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
$686,629 वॉल्यूम
$686,629 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,768 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,517 वॉल्यूम
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$136,664 वॉल्यूम
40%
25 bps increase
$187,108 वॉल्यूम
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,573 वॉल्यूम
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, are anchoring market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting near 55.5%.**
August CPI data released September 11 showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, with core CPI at 2.4% and energy components contributing significantly to the upside surprise. This follows the Fed’s June 2026 dot plot revisions, which lifted the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% and erased prior expectations for cuts, reflecting concerns over durable inflation above the 2% target.
Recent communications from officials, including signals of data-dependent tightening, combined with analyst forecasts such as J.P. Morgan’s call for a December hike, have shifted trader sentiment toward modest policy firming. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for one 25 bp adjustment while still allowing for a hold if incoming data moderates.
Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC decision and October CPI release, which could refine probabilities ahead of the December meeting. These odds reflect aggregated trader positioning based on real capital at risk rather than certainty about future policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$686,629समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, are anchoring market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting near 55.5%.**
August CPI data released September 11 showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, with core CPI at 2.4% and energy components contributing significantly to the upside surprise. This follows the Fed’s June 2026 dot plot revisions, which lifted the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% and erased prior expectations for cuts, reflecting concerns over durable inflation above the 2% target.
Recent communications from officials, including signals of data-dependent tightening, combined with analyst forecasts such as J.P. Morgan’s call for a December hike, have shifted trader sentiment toward modest policy firming. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for one 25 bp adjustment while still allowing for a hold if incoming data moderates.
Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC decision and October CPI release, which could refine probabilities ahead of the December meeting. These odds reflect aggregated trader positioning based on real capital at risk rather than certainty about future policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$686,629समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, are anchoring market-implied odds for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting near 55.5%.** August CPI data released September 11 showed a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, with core CPI at 2.4% and energy components contributing significantly to the upside surprise. This follows the Fed’s June 2026 dot plot revisions, which lifted the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% and erased prior expectations for cuts, reflecting concerns over durable inflation above the 2% target. Recent communications from officials, including signals of data-dependent tightening, combined with analyst forecasts such as J.P. Morgan’s call for a December hike, have shifted trader sentiment toward modest policy firming. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for one 25 bp adjustment while still allowing for a hold if incoming data moderates. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC decision and October CPI release, which could refine probabilities ahead of the December meeting. These odds reflect aggregated trader positioning based on real capital at risk rather than certainty about future policy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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