Voters face Proposition 38 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would authorize $8.4 billion in general obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research, split equally between a single University of California-affiliated institute selected by the Department of Public Health and a competitive grant program, with half the funds directed to cancer, heart disease, and Alzheimer’s studies. Trader sentiment favoring rejection reflects concerns over the measure’s fiscal impact—an estimated $500 million to $600 million in annual General Fund debt service for roughly 20 years—combined with its structure directing substantial resources to one pre-positioned nonprofit entity backed by major philanthropists. Recent commentary has highlighted these allocation rules and repayment obligations as key factors weighing against passage, even as supporters cite potential long-term revenue offsets from royalties and the need for state-level research funding.