**Hilda Solis and Pedro Casas advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3.** The district's D+8 to D+10 partisan lean and Solis's strong primary performance, name recognition, and fundraising edge underpin trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet the spread of prices across narrow and wider margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the final difference. Low volume and limited recent polling leave room for shifts driven by national midterm dynamics, turnout in Los Angeles and Orange County portions of the seat, or late campaign spending. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance nationally or unusually high Democratic abstention could narrow the margin, while consolidated Democratic support or turnout advantages would likely widen it.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -38 हाउस चुनाव जीत का अंतर
CA -38 हाउस चुनाव जीत का अंतर
डेमोक्रेट 30%+ 42%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30% 42%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25% 42%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20% 42%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 30%+
42%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
42%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25%
42%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20%
42%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15%
39%
डेमोक्रेट 5-10%
40%
डेमोक्रेट 0-5%
39%
रिपब्लिकन जीत
35%
डेमोक्रेट 30%+ 42%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30% 42%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25% 42%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20% 42%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेट 30%+
$0 वॉल्यूम
42%
डेमोक्रेट 25-30%
$0 वॉल्यूम
42%
डेमोक्रेट 20-25%
$0 वॉल्यूम
42%
डेमोक्रेट 15-20%
$0 वॉल्यूम
42%
डेमोक्रेट 10-15%
$0 वॉल्यूम
39%
डेमोक्रेट 5-10%
$0 वॉल्यूम
40%
डेमोक्रेट 0-5%
$0 वॉल्यूम
39%
रिपब्लिकन जीत
$31 वॉल्यूम
35%
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Hilda Solis and Pedro Casas advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3.** The district's D+8 to D+10 partisan lean and Solis's strong primary performance, name recognition, and fundraising edge underpin trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet the spread of prices across narrow and wider margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the final difference. Low volume and limited recent polling leave room for shifts driven by national midterm dynamics, turnout in Los Angeles and Orange County portions of the seat, or late campaign spending. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance nationally or unusually high Democratic abstention could narrow the margin, while consolidated Democratic support or turnout advantages would likely widen it.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Hilda Solis and Pedro Casas advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3.** The district's D+8 to D+10 partisan lean and Solis's strong primary performance, name recognition, and fundraising edge underpin trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet the spread of prices across narrow and wider margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the final difference. Low volume and limited recent polling leave room for shifts driven by national midterm dynamics, turnout in Los Angeles and Orange County portions of the seat, or late campaign spending. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance nationally or unusually high Democratic abstention could narrow the margin, while consolidated Democratic support or turnout advantages would likely widen it.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$31समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Hilda Solis and Pedro Casas advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3.** The district's D+8 to D+10 partisan lean and Solis's strong primary performance, name recognition, and fundraising edge underpin trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet the spread of prices across narrow and wider margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the final difference. Low volume and limited recent polling leave room for shifts driven by national midterm dynamics, turnout in Los Angeles and Orange County portions of the seat, or late campaign spending. A stronger-than-expected Republican performance nationally or unusually high Democratic abstention could narrow the margin, while consolidated Democratic support or turnout advantages would likely widen it.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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