The constitutional requirement for biennial congressional elections under Article I of the US Constitution anchors trader consensus around the 2026 midterms proceeding on schedule. No recent legislative proposals, court rulings, or executive actions have altered the fixed election calendar, and historical precedent shows voting held amid wars, economic crises, and public health emergencies. Primary factors sustaining high implied probability include the absence of viable delay mechanisms short of constitutional amendment and consistent state-level preparations for November balloting. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain narrow, such as an unforeseen national emergency prompting emergency legislation or a severe institutional breakdown affecting ballot access, though both face substantial procedural and political hurdles before the resolution window closes.