Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right-wrist injury, which has sidelined the world No. 2 since his April withdrawal from the Barcelona Open, creates the central uncertainty around his 2026 US Open title defense. Recent withdrawals from Montreal and the Cincinnati Masters—events that typically serve as critical hard-court preparation—have reinforced trader caution, even as the defending champion remains on the official entry list. Positive signs from his recovery team and consideration of a possible Winston-Salem wild card before the August 23 start of the main draw provide limited counterbalance, reflecting the wisdom-of-crowds assessment that fitness clearance could still arrive in time. Any confirmed medical all-clear, successful practice sessions, or entry into a final tune-up would likely strengthen the slim “Yes” edge, while further delays or setbacks could quickly shift sentiment toward absence.