Jannik Sinner enters the 2026 US Open as the clear men’s favorite following strong hard-court results this season, while Aryna Sabalenka leads the women’s side with recent hard-court titles and back-to-back final appearances. Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist injury prompted his withdrawal from Cincinnati, raising questions about his readiness and potentially boosting Sinner’s path. Other contenders such as Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Coco Gauff, and Iga Świątek face varying injury recoveries and form questions entering the late-August start at Flushing Meadows. Draw positioning, rest advantages during the two-week event, and late-round matchups on outdoor hard courts remain pivotal variables that could shift implied probabilities for final appearances.