Trader consensus on the Polymarket market assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no company’s large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, driven by current frontier scores clustered around 1500–1508. Anthropic models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the leaderboard with incremental gains from specialized releases, while OpenAI and Google trail closely in the tight pack; open-weight entries from DeepSeek and Alibaba lag further behind. Recent Arena snapshots show steady but modest Elo lifts rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the gap, with historical monthly progress rates and the compressed timeline reinforcing the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model updates or capability demonstrations before December 31 that could shift the market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun en 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
84%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Aucun en 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.4%
$122,904 Vol.
$122,904 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
$26,000 Vol.
84%
Anthropic
$17,412 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$14,673 Vol.
6%
$11,499 Vol.
1%
xAI
$9,350 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,416 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no company’s large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, driven by current frontier scores clustered around 1500–1508. Anthropic models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the leaderboard with incremental gains from specialized releases, while OpenAI and Google trail closely in the tight pack; open-weight entries from DeepSeek and Alibaba lag further behind. Recent Arena snapshots show steady but modest Elo lifts rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the gap, with historical monthly progress rates and the compressed timeline reinforcing the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model updates or capability demonstrations before December 31 that could shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$122,904Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no company’s large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, driven by current frontier scores clustered around 1500–1508. Anthropic models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the leaderboard with incremental gains from specialized releases, while OpenAI and Google trail closely in the tight pack; open-weight entries from DeepSeek and Alibaba lag further behind. Recent Arena snapshots show steady but modest Elo lifts rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the gap, with historical monthly progress rates and the compressed timeline reinforcing the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model updates or capability demonstrations before December 31 that could shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$122,904Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Polymarket market assigns an 83.5% implied probability to no company’s large language model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, driven by current frontier scores clustered around 1500–1508. Anthropic models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the leaderboard with incremental gains from specialized releases, while OpenAI and Google trail closely in the tight pack; open-weight entries from DeepSeek and Alibaba lag further behind. Recent Arena snapshots show steady but modest Elo lifts rather than the rapid jumps needed to close the gap, with historical monthly progress rates and the compressed timeline reinforcing the “none” outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include any major model updates or capability demonstrations before December 31 that could shift the market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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