One Nation leads trader consensus for third place on primary votes in Victoria’s November 2026 state election, reflecting its sustained surge in recent polling to the low-to-mid 20s percent range, often placing it ahead of or level with the Coalition while trailing Labor. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan for Labor in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation helm in early August—have not altered this dynamic, as multiple August surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge show One Nation holding competitive primary support amid broader right-leaning gains. The Coalition’s weaker showing and the Greens’ steadier but lower double-digit support reinforce expectations that One Nation will slot behind the two major parties, with micro-parties and Legalise Cannabis trailing far behind. The recent abolition of group voting tickets and One Nation’s strong performance in a Western Australian by-election further shape assessments of minor-party prospects heading into the final campaign period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection parlementaire de Victoria : 3e place
Élection parlementaire de Victoria : 3e place
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 5.9%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,159 Vol.
$17,159 Vol.
28 nov. 2026
One Nation
61%
Greens
13%
Labor
6%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 5.9%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,159 Vol.
$17,159 Vol.
28 nov. 2026
One Nation
$5,842 Vol.
61%
Greens
$163 Vol.
13%
Labor
$6,507 Vol.
6%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$822 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$717 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).One Nation leads trader consensus for third place on primary votes in Victoria’s November 2026 state election, reflecting its sustained surge in recent polling to the low-to-mid 20s percent range, often placing it ahead of or level with the Coalition while trailing Labor. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan for Labor in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation helm in early August—have not altered this dynamic, as multiple August surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge show One Nation holding competitive primary support amid broader right-leaning gains. The Coalition’s weaker showing and the Greens’ steadier but lower double-digit support reinforce expectations that One Nation will slot behind the two major parties, with micro-parties and Legalise Cannabis trailing far behind. The recent abolition of group voting tickets and One Nation’s strong performance in a Western Australian by-election further shape assessments of minor-party prospects heading into the final campaign period.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$17,159Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).One Nation leads trader consensus for third place on primary votes in Victoria’s November 2026 state election, reflecting its sustained surge in recent polling to the low-to-mid 20s percent range, often placing it ahead of or level with the Coalition while trailing Labor. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan for Labor in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation helm in early August—have not altered this dynamic, as multiple August surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge show One Nation holding competitive primary support amid broader right-leaning gains. The Coalition’s weaker showing and the Greens’ steadier but lower double-digit support reinforce expectations that One Nation will slot behind the two major parties, with micro-parties and Legalise Cannabis trailing far behind. The recent abolition of group voting tickets and One Nation’s strong performance in a Western Australian by-election further shape assessments of minor-party prospects heading into the final campaign period.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$17,159Date de fin
28 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...One Nation leads trader consensus for third place on primary votes in Victoria’s November 2026 state election, reflecting its sustained surge in recent polling to the low-to-mid 20s percent range, often placing it ahead of or level with the Coalition while trailing Labor. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan for Labor in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation helm in early August—have not altered this dynamic, as multiple August surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Roy Morgan and RedBridge show One Nation holding competitive primary support amid broader right-leaning gains. The Coalition’s weaker showing and the Greens’ steadier but lower double-digit support reinforce expectations that One Nation will slot behind the two major parties, with micro-parties and Legalise Cannabis trailing far behind. The recent abolition of group voting tickets and One Nation’s strong performance in a Western Australian by-election further shape assessments of minor-party prospects heading into the final campaign period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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