Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each polling in the mid-20s across multiple surveys, while the Greens sit near 12 percent. This three-way split, following Ben Carroll’s late-July ascension as Labor leader and premier, has kept second-place seat outcomes highly sensitive to preference flows and geographic distribution in the Legislative Assembly. Traders assign Labor the highest implied probability for second place because its primary support has proven more resilient in recent Resolve and Roy Morgan data and because historical preference patterns tend to concentrate seats among the two largest parties. The Coalition’s lower odds reflect expectations that it may secure first place outright in enough marginal seats, while One Nation’s surge has not yet translated into comparable seat projections due to limited winnable districts and preference leakage. Electoral reforms eliminating group voting tickets add further uncertainty to upper-house dynamics but leave lower-house seat math dependent on late-campaign shifts before polling day.