U.S. policy has upheld non-recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea since the 2014 annexation, reinforced by bipartisan measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act and consistent positions across administrations. Early 2025 proposals to link formal acknowledgment to Ukraine peace frameworks encountered strong opposition from Kyiv, European allies, and Congress, citing risks of endorsing territorial changes achieved by force. Through mid-2026, stalled bilateral and multilateral talks, continued hostilities, and Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula have kept any U.S. policy shift off the table. Traders assign a 97.7% probability to no recognition before the December 31, 2026 deadline, reflecting these entrenched diplomatic and legal barriers. A rapid negotiated settlement incorporating U.S. acknowledgment remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
2% chance
$73,993 Vol.
$73,993 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$73,993 Vol.
$73,993 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
U.S. policy has upheld non-recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea since the 2014 annexation, reinforced by bipartisan measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act and consistent positions across administrations. Early 2025 proposals to link formal acknowledgment to Ukraine peace frameworks encountered strong opposition from Kyiv, European allies, and Congress, citing risks of endorsing territorial changes achieved by force. Through mid-2026, stalled bilateral and multilateral talks, continued hostilities, and Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula have kept any U.S. policy shift off the table. Traders assign a 97.7% probability to no recognition before the December 31, 2026 deadline, reflecting these entrenched diplomatic and legal barriers. A rapid negotiated settlement incorporating U.S. acknowledgment remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$73,993Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
U.S. policy has upheld non-recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea since the 2014 annexation, reinforced by bipartisan measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act and consistent positions across administrations. Early 2025 proposals to link formal acknowledgment to Ukraine peace frameworks encountered strong opposition from Kyiv, European allies, and Congress, citing risks of endorsing territorial changes achieved by force. Through mid-2026, stalled bilateral and multilateral talks, continued hostilities, and Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula have kept any U.S. policy shift off the table. Traders assign a 97.7% probability to no recognition before the December 31, 2026 deadline, reflecting these entrenched diplomatic and legal barriers. A rapid negotiated settlement incorporating U.S. acknowledgment remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$73,993Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy has upheld non-recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea since the 2014 annexation, reinforced by bipartisan measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act and consistent positions across administrations. Early 2025 proposals to link formal acknowledgment to Ukraine peace frameworks encountered strong opposition from Kyiv, European allies, and Congress, citing risks of endorsing territorial changes achieved by force. Through mid-2026, stalled bilateral and multilateral talks, continued hostilities, and Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula have kept any U.S. policy shift off the table. Traders assign a 97.7% probability to no recognition before the December 31, 2026 deadline, reflecting these entrenched diplomatic and legal barriers. A rapid negotiated settlement incorporating U.S. acknowledgment remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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