Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion anchors current expectations, yet the closely matched Polymarket probabilities across valuation buckets reflect uncertainty over IPO timing and post-listing multiples. Founders have repeatedly signaled no near-term filing, citing the advantages of private structure for funding acquisitions like OpenRouter (over $8 billion) and navigating AI-driven shifts without dilution or quarterly scrutiny. First-half 2026 revenue rose 41% year-over-year with free cash flow up 43%, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and rising exposure to AI and crypto clients. These fundamentals support potential expansion to $350–500 billion+ ranges in favorable markets, while fintech valuation compression or delayed listing could keep outcomes below $200 billion. The 27% probability of no IPO by December 2027 underscores the lack of capital or liquidity pressure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour250 à 300 milliards de dollars 65%
500 G$+ 40%
<150 Md$ 38%
350 G$-400 G$ 34%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
<150 Md$
38%
150 à 200 milliards $
31%
200-250 Md$
10%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars
65%
300-350 G$
-
350 G$-400 G$
34%
400 à 450 milliards de dollars
31%
450 G$-500 G$
31%
500 G$+
40%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2027
27%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars 65%
500 G$+ 40%
<150 Md$ 38%
350 G$-400 G$ 34%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2027
<150 Md$
$50 Vol.
38%
150 à 200 milliards $
$69 Vol.
31%
200-250 Md$
$70 Vol.
10%
250 à 300 milliards de dollars
$94 Vol.
65%
300-350 G$
$94 Vol.
-
350 G$-400 G$
$81 Vol.
34%
400 à 450 milliards de dollars
$120 Vol.
31%
450 G$-500 G$
$73 Vol.
31%
500 G$+
$47 Vol.
40%
Aucune introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2027
$76 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion anchors current expectations, yet the closely matched Polymarket probabilities across valuation buckets reflect uncertainty over IPO timing and post-listing multiples. Founders have repeatedly signaled no near-term filing, citing the advantages of private structure for funding acquisitions like OpenRouter (over $8 billion) and navigating AI-driven shifts without dilution or quarterly scrutiny. First-half 2026 revenue rose 41% year-over-year with free cash flow up 43%, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and rising exposure to AI and crypto clients. These fundamentals support potential expansion to $350–500 billion+ ranges in favorable markets, while fintech valuation compression or delayed listing could keep outcomes below $200 billion. The 27% probability of no IPO by December 2027 underscores the lack of capital or liquidity pressure.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$774Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion anchors current expectations, yet the closely matched Polymarket probabilities across valuation buckets reflect uncertainty over IPO timing and post-listing multiples. Founders have repeatedly signaled no near-term filing, citing the advantages of private structure for funding acquisitions like OpenRouter (over $8 billion) and navigating AI-driven shifts without dilution or quarterly scrutiny. First-half 2026 revenue rose 41% year-over-year with free cash flow up 43%, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and rising exposure to AI and crypto clients. These fundamentals support potential expansion to $350–500 billion+ ranges in favorable markets, while fintech valuation compression or delayed listing could keep outcomes below $200 billion. The 27% probability of no IPO by December 2027 underscores the lack of capital or liquidity pressure.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$774Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion anchors current expectations, yet the closely matched Polymarket probabilities across valuation buckets reflect uncertainty over IPO timing and post-listing multiples. Founders have repeatedly signaled no near-term filing, citing the advantages of private structure for funding acquisitions like OpenRouter (over $8 billion) and navigating AI-driven shifts without dilution or quarterly scrutiny. First-half 2026 revenue rose 41% year-over-year with free cash flow up 43%, supported by $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and rising exposure to AI and crypto clients. These fundamentals support potential expansion to $350–500 billion+ ranges in favorable markets, while fintech valuation compression or delayed listing could keep outcomes below $200 billion. The 27% probability of no IPO by December 2027 underscores the lack of capital or liquidity pressure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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