Recent August data, showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader sentiment for the September release and explains the near-even market-implied odds between 4.1% and 4.2%. Labor force participation edged higher while broader measures like the U-6 rate improved modestly, signaling resilience amid mixed consumer expectations that place a 44.4% mean probability on a higher jobless rate one year ahead. FOMC projections from June placed the 2026 median at 4.3%, and upcoming September CPI plus the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th could shift near-term views before the October 2 jobs report. Monthly volatility and revisions keep outcomes closely contested.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,1 % 32%
4,2 % 32%
4,0 % 17%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
6%
3,9 %
5%
4,0 %
17%
4,1 %
32%
4,2 %
32%
4,3 %
11%
4,4 %
4%
4,5 %
4%
≥ 4,6 %
3%
4,1 % 32%
4,2 % 32%
4,0 % 17%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
$1,042 Vol.
6%
3,9 %
$141 Vol.
5%
4,0 %
$86 Vol.
17%
4,1 %
$1,309 Vol.
32%
4,2 %
$973 Vol.
32%
4,3 %
$187 Vol.
11%
4,4 %
$199 Vol.
4%
4,5 %
$537 Vol.
4%
≥ 4,6 %
$536 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data, showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader sentiment for the September release and explains the near-even market-implied odds between 4.1% and 4.2%. Labor force participation edged higher while broader measures like the U-6 rate improved modestly, signaling resilience amid mixed consumer expectations that place a 44.4% mean probability on a higher jobless rate one year ahead. FOMC projections from June placed the 2026 median at 4.3%, and upcoming September CPI plus the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th could shift near-term views before the October 2 jobs report. Monthly volatility and revisions keep outcomes closely contested.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$5,010Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data, showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader sentiment for the September release and explains the near-even market-implied odds between 4.1% and 4.2%. Labor force participation edged higher while broader measures like the U-6 rate improved modestly, signaling resilience amid mixed consumer expectations that place a 44.4% mean probability on a higher jobless rate one year ahead. FOMC projections from June placed the 2026 median at 4.3%, and upcoming September CPI plus the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th could shift near-term views before the October 2 jobs report. Monthly volatility and revisions keep outcomes closely contested.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$5,010Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent August data, showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader sentiment for the September release and explains the near-even market-implied odds between 4.1% and 4.2%. Labor force participation edged higher while broader measures like the U-6 rate improved modestly, signaling resilience amid mixed consumer expectations that place a 44.4% mean probability on a higher jobless rate one year ahead. FOMC projections from June placed the 2026 median at 4.3%, and upcoming September CPI plus the FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th could shift near-term views before the October 2 jobs report. Monthly volatility and revisions keep outcomes closely contested.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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